The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

A healthy Baker Mayfield led the CLEVELAND BROWNS to a playoff win. Think about that for a second. They should be erecting statues of him but they forced him to play on a hurt shoulder and then replaced him by overpaying big time for a sexual predator.

 

There is no comp between him and Heinicke. They are on different planets as QBs.

Agreed.

 

I don’t love the guy and really had no interest of him coming here, but Heineke vs Mayfield….my god, how did this even become a topic to discuss?

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Agreed.

 

I don’t love the guy and really had no interest of him coming here, but Heineke vs Mayfield….my god, how did this even become a topic to discuss?

 

I think someone mentioned them having similar numbers last season. Maybe that’s where it started?

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

It's amazing that the entire NFL and NFL media are all sleeping on Heinicke being better than Mayfield, but yet someone on ES knows the truth and the rest of the world can't see it. 

 

Mayfield, Heinicke, heck, even Jimmy G are all in the same tier. Wonder why the QB on the 2 mil contract that could be had for a day 3 pick isn't garnering more attention.

 

Heinicke though was limited by the "system".  You let Heinicke loose in a system where he's unshackled -- just like Haz was unshackled after Shanny left and then the sky is the limit.

[Skinsinparadise]

NFL Betting 2022: Why the Washington Commanders over 7.5 wins is a good bet

We’re in the dog days of summer, so naturally, folks like me and the data science group at PFF are knee-deep in building products for next year. Right now, we’re significantly immersed in the data that will help us understand what will happen during the 2022 NFL season better than anyone else.  

When involved in such an exercise, I’m invariably struck by things that surprise me. Such a thing is what I’m writing about today: I like the Washington Commanders this year. 

The Washington football franchise is an excellent example of a team for which the number really matters. We made a bull case for them in 2020, and though not all the reasons we liked them were why they went over their win total and won the NFC East, those bets still cashed. 

Last year, while sitting on a beach in Marco Island, Fla., I fired off the below tweet as I was thinking about the fragility of most NFL teams in what ended up being the league’s second season battling the COVID-19 pandemic. 

 

The Ryan Fitzpatrick part of the handicap came true in the form of an injury, and the COVID-19 stuff came true in that a seven-win team had to play a Tuesday night game in late December with Garrett Gilbert at quarterback.

This year, I’m a bull again on the Commanders (they’ll always be the Football Team to me) for several reasons.

Firstly, offensive coordinator Scott Turner gave this offense a chance last year, pushing all of the buttons that make for good offense: forcing low box counts, running motion and utilizing play action at top-five rates. The failures of Taylor Heinicke (who finished 32nd in PFF passing grade) and Antonio Gibson (who struggled to just 2.82 yards after contact per attempt) clearly struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness last year.

 

Secondly, assuming wide receiver Terry McLaurin finds his way back to the nation’s capital, this receiving group promises to be one of the best in football.

McLaurin has been worth every bit as much of the next contract he’s going to get, earning 0.39 WAR per season over the last three years despite having to deal with an absolute potpourri of horribleness at the quarterback position. 

TERRY MCLAURIN: PFF WAR SINCE 2019

Then there is Jahan Dotson, whom Washington drafted after they traded back for the 16th overall pick, even though the betting markets had him going around pick 29.5.

The market that is the NFL draft is usually more “right” than any random opinion is, but I’ll stick my neck out and say that Dotson was deserving of being the 16th overall pick. He played with mediocre quarterback play the entire time he was at Penn State and thrived. Like McLaurin, he’s terrific at getting separation and tracks the deep ball well. He, McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown make for a very good receiving group going into 2022. 

JAHAN DOTSON: PFF WAA SINCE 2018

The elephant in the room, though, is the quarterback spot.

I’m not going to sit here and write that Carson Wentz is an upper-half-of-the-league quarterback at this point in his career. Wentz has very clearly lost the magic that took him to the playoffs in 2019 and even made him an MVP candidate for much of the 2017 season.

Be that as it may, Wentz is the best quarterback Washington will have since Alex Smith replaced Kirk Cousins in 2018. And that bar is incredibly low. One could even argue Wentz cleared it last year as the starter for the Indianapolis Colts, where he finished with the 21st overall PFF passing grade, averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt and threw 27 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions. 

The former No. 2 pick recorded more big-time throws (22) than turnover-worthy plays (18) in 2021. He had stretches of play where he was absolutely in the “can’t win with him” category, and the order of those events surely contributed more to his exit from Indianapolis than the average of his games did. He now joins a Washington team with a solid front five (a prerequisite for a competent Wentz offense), a solid playcaller in Scott Turner and the aforementioned weapons above, which are a plus.

The Wentz conversation will always be awkward in a league where a guy is either an unquestioned, max-deal quarterback or a bum worthy of the Baker Mayfield treatment. But make no mistake, the seventh-year quarterback is good enough to guide Washington to a reasonable outcome in 2022. 

https://www.pff.com/nfl/teams/washington-commanders/32/lineup

Lastly, before we get to what to bet, there is the Washington defense, which was the major reason I made the bear case last year.

The group went from facing one of the easiest slates of opposing QBs in 2020 to a much harder group in 2021, but they return to more of an easier slate in 2022 and will face the fourth-easiest schedule in the league — with their average opponent about 0.71 points worse than the average team on a neutral field.

This should give more of an opportunity to a stout defensive line that includes Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen and the incomparable Chase Young to get after the quarterback, and it will allow the likes of Kendall Fuller (who earned the third-highest grade among cornerbacks in his return to Washington last year) more chances to create turnovers.

Defense is a volatile entity, and if Washington can simply get the average of the productivity of the last two seasons, they should be contenders in a weak NFC East and weak NFC in general. 

So, how should we profit from this? If you follow me on TikTok, you saw that while I was in Iowa this past weekend, I bet the over 8.5 at +145 at a FanDuel sportsbook.

 

Per our simulation, this is a +EV bet, with Washington winning nine or more games 44.3% of the time versus a break-even of 40.8% on a +145 bet.

Our friends at DraftKings have the Commanders with eight wins, -110 to both sides. We have the Commanders winning less than eight wins 40.7% of the time and exactly eight wins 15.0% of the time, to go along with the aforementioned 44.3% of the time winning nine or more.

Taking out the 15% push probability, we have over eight wins hitting 52.1% of the time, which is actually not above the break-even of 52.4% needed to be +EV on a -110 bet. So, shop around. 

Caesar’s has the Commanders at 7.5 wins, with -115 to the over. The break-even on -115 is 53.4%, which is much lower than the probability of 59.3% that Washington wins eight or more games and represents a bigger edge than the FanDuel bet, as well. Over 7.5 wins is +EV until the over price is -145. 

We make the Commanders 36.2% to make the playoffs and 16.4% to win the NFC East, corresponding to +176 and +510, respectively. If you find payouts higher than that, they are worth a shot. 

The bear case for many teams is tough to make this time of year. Our favorite great teams — e.g., the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers — have their brilliance baked into the market.

If you want to bet an over, the goal is to find an underrated collection of things that can all emerge together. And in the case of Washington’s playcaller, quarterback, weapons, defense and schedule, you have it.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/bet-nfl-betting-2022-washington-commanders-over-8-5-wins-best-nfl-bets

[Voice_of_Reason]

7 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

If we don't have a winning record and clearly look like a playoff team by week 12, or at clearly out of the race then it's Howell times to shine.

Is week 12 70% of the snaps?  If we’re clearly out if the race they need to make sure the third doesn’t become a second

[Koolblue13]

8 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Is week 12 70% of the snaps?  If we’re clearly out if the race they need to make sure the third doesn’t become a second

I dunno. Someone else said that and I ran with it. Anywho, the point is that if the season is blown, you play the rookie and nothing else makes sense.

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I dunno. Someone else said that and I ran with it. Anywho, the point is that if the season is blown, you play the rookie and nothing else makes sense.

I agree.  But if the season is blown I want 2 things:

 

1. As many losses as possible 

2. keep that 3rd a 3rd. 

[Koolblue13]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

I agree.  But if the season is blown I want 2 things:

 

1. As many losses as possible 

2. keep that 3rd a 3rd. 

Agreed, but I also want to see the rookie, to see if we need another one next year.

[NeverSurrender]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

A healthy Baker Mayfield led the CLEVELAND BROWNS to a playoff win. Think about that for a second. They should be erecting statues of him but they forced him to play on a hurt shoulder and then replaced him by overpaying big time for a sexual predator.

 

There is no comp between him and Heinicke. They are on different planets as QBs.

They dont even put their pants on the same way.  Heinickie cant even throw a football more the 30 yards.  If you want proof just turn on the tape from last season.

[Voice_of_Reason]

7 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Agreed, but I also want to see the rookie, to see if we need another one next year.

Yeah, I'd like to see Howell also in that scenario.  However, I doubt he could do anything in the last 5 games to make any type of definitive judgement about him one way or the other.  

 

As a complete and total aside, if Ron was playing 3 dimensional chess, if we were ever up by 2 scores or down by 2 scores at the end of the game, and the outcome appeared did not appear to be in doubt, I would put in Howell and run hurry up and get him as many snaps as we could get him.  If that's 1 drive, fine, if it's 2 drives fine, whatever.  Get him 5-10 snaps in the game.  Why you ask?  Because if you can do that, and do it a few times, and then at the  end of the season you're out of it, you are in a better position to protect that 3rd round pick.

 

I mean, ideally Wentz could just sit out the last quarter of every game because we're winning each one by 30 and the last 2 games because we've sown up the #1 seed already, but I'm not counting those chickens just yet.  (Check back next week.  I might make a bold prediction.)

 

But seriously, if there was any way to win a bunch of games AND keep the 3rd a 3rd and triple screw Irsay sideways with a broomstick up the butt, I'd do it.  I would NOT risk losing a game for it though.  But I'd keep it in the back of my mind every game. Ideally it would be in winning mop-up duty.  

[Califan007 The Constipated]

6 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

It's amazing that the entire NFL and NFL media are all sleeping on Heinicke being better than Mayfield, but yet someone on ES knows the truth and the rest of the world can't see it.

 

Well, not all NFL media lol...

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

11 minutes ago, NeverSurrender said:

They dont even put their pants on the same way. 

Are you sure about that?  Have you conducted an investigation?  Is Wentz a "right foot first" guy and TH a "sit down on the bed" guy?   

 

I think we need a lot more information on how these two put on their pants. 

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

I think someone mentioned them having similar numbers last season. Maybe that’s where it started?

 

@TheShredder asked the question "if somebody was going to pay Baker $18M why wouldn't they trade for TH for $3M"

 

We went back and forth a bit, because I misunderstood the initial post.  Then I finally understood his post (I was having a moment.  My apologies, it took longer than it should.)  So I conceded the point, and said: 

 

"TH doesn’t have starter skills.  Mayfield does.  If you’re trading for one of them, you go for the guy with potential."

 

And then it happened.  @kingdaddy came in to defend TH, and started comparing stats, had worse weapons, what we've heard before. 

 

And here we are.  2 pages and many posts about TH and Mayfield later.  

 

And thus ends the lesson.

 

As an aside, the absolute only reason Baker Baker the Touchdown Maker hasn't been traded is his contract.  Nobody wants a 1 year $18M rental for a guy who might/might not be the guy.  Unless you've got that cap room lying around, you're not clearing it for a 1 year rental.   And I doubt anybody wants to trade for him and extend him.  If he was on a cheaper deal, or he was a FA, he would have been snatched up very quickly on potential.  Somebody would think "The Browns are cursed, I can fix him."  Maybe many someones. 

 

But $18m in his final year is a deal killer. 

[-9-]

9 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

... it's Howell's time to shine.

 

[zCommander]

2 hours ago, NeverSurrender said:

Heinickie cant even throw a football more the 30 yards.  If you want proof just turn on the tape from last season.

 

 TH made plenty of throws last season that were over 30 yards and were caught and some with YACs too. Sounds like to me you are the one who really need to turn on the tape instead....lol

 

But in case you are too lazy to look up, here is a sample of just one play. 

 

The first play was a 56-yard pass to running back J.D. McKissic.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by zCommander

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

 TH made plenty of throws last season that were over 30 yards and were caught and some with YACs too. Sounds like to me you are the one who really need to turn on the tape instead....lol

 

But in case you are too lazy to look up, here is a sample of just one play. 

 

The first play was a 56-yard pass to running back J.D. McKissic.

 

 

 

 

Exactly a 30 yard floating turkey, which is the problem. 

[TheShredder]

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Is week 12 70% of the snaps?  If we’re clearly out if the race they need to make sure the third doesn’t become a second

Yeah, I mentioned that earlier. The math works out to be 11.9 weeks to hit 70% on average. In theory, if you're not sold on Wentz after say 3rd quarter in game 10 or game 11 at the most.  Then in order to save that 2nd round pick, you have to sit him down AND likely play Heinicke. The reason being is the trigger is 70% of offensive snaps and Heinicke will get you more offensive snaps faster. They'd need to play Heinicke for approximately 100 plays or 2-3 games, then let Howell get some experience.

 

1- Wentz needs a fast start.

2- Wentz needs a winning record and show leadership before Week 12 at the latest.

3- Can't play Howell if you want to save the 2nd rounder until you get100 quick offensive plays to insure you'll save the pick.

 

 

 

[TheShredder]

I could fix Heinicke's weak arm in one off-season!

 

 

[zCommander]

21 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Exactly a 30 yard floating turkey, which is the problem. 

 

Actually a fat turkey that ended up being 56 yarder.

His long completed passes over 40 yards for last year were around 5 I believe. So much for he didn't throw any over 30 yards, like that poster was saying.

 

For comparison: Brady had only 8 long passes that were either a 40 yarder or longer. 

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by zCommander

[mistertim]

Heinicke can throw the ball 40+ yards. Every NFL QB can. That’s not the issue. The issue is being able to fit into tight windows on timing routes like outs, and not having his passes lofted to the point where he’s getting his WRs decapitated by DBs. That happened plenty of times last season. 

Edited June 22, 2022 by mistertim

[zCommander]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

Heinicke can throw the ball 40+ yards. Every NFL QB can. That’s not the issue. The issue is being able to fit into tight windows and not having his passes lofted to the point where he’s getting his WRs decapitated by DBs. That happened plenty of times last season. 

 

I am just posting stats. No decapitation was mentioned on the website or else I would have posted that as well.

[mistertim]

4 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

I am just posting stats. No decapitation was mentioned on the website or else I would have posted that as well.

 

That would actually be a pretty hilarious stat. 

 

DPA : Decapitations Per Attempt

[Koolblue13]

58 minutes ago, zCommander said:

: Brady had only 8 long passes that were either a 40 yarder or longer. 

 

Ya know Heinicke beat him once.

[NickyJ]

There's one thing I've really been disappointed about our QB situation, though it's not exactly about QBs. Tress Way's passing skills have been absolutely ignored by Rivera's team. It hurts me to say it, but Jay Gruden's team put Tress to better use. Yes, part of it is that the team is more willing to go for it on 4th down with a conventional offensive play, but Tress Way is money for at least one 4th down a season. They need to let Tress show them the Way.

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, NickyJ said:

There's one thing I've really been disappointed about our QB situation, though it's not exactly about QBs. Tress Way's passing skills have been absolutely ignored by Rivera's team. It hurts me to say it, but Jay Gruden's team put Tress to better use. Yes, part of it is that the team is more willing to go for it on 4th down with a conventional offensive play, but Tress Way is money for at least one 4th down a season. They need to let Tress show them the Way.

 

In there defense they witnessed a fake punt so bad it scarred them from attempting one themselves.

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

 

 TH made plenty of throws last season that were over 30 yards and were caught and some with YACs too. Sounds like to me you are the one who really need to turn on the tape instead....lol

 

But in case you are too lazy to look up, here is a sample of just one play. 

 

The first play was a 56-yard pass to running back J.D. McKissic.

 

 

 

 

This is actually a great example of what TH CAN do.  He can float the ball to a receiver, and if the receiver is open, as McKissic was on this play, it can work.  He can get the ball down field, probably between 40 and 50 yards in the air.

 

What he can't do, as @mistertim said is drive the ball.  Literally everybody has said this, and there are countless examples of it.  When he needs to have no loft on the ball, just drive the ball into a receiver in a tight window, he doesn't have the physical tools to do it. At least not consistently, and only if the rest of his mechanics are perfect. 

 

Numbers can't really show that.  You just see it, and if you are remotely good at knowing what you're looking at, you can tell almost immediately.

 

What Ron and Scott have both said this off season is having Wentz has given them access to things they couldn't do last year.  It's made the whole field available to them.  Both have spoken at length about it.  They won't come right out and say TH has a noodle arm.  But they constantly mention how they are now able to stretch the field and throw tight-window throws, how the playbook is more open.