The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[SkinsFTW]

TBH, I don't really blame them for not wanting to beat a 11M x 3 contract for a 30 year old safety who may or may not fit the defense. 

 

To me that would likely turn out to be a Snyderatto style move. Or another Collins deal, at best.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

You don't believe that waiting, at minimum, an extra 6 extra months to sign the guy they put on everything team related (McLaurin) was a bad idea.

I don't know why they waited.  I think that was a bad idea.  

 

1 hour ago, SkinsFTW said:

Cost/value has no meaning with you, I get it!

Cost/value has all the meaning in the world to me. 

 

1 hour ago, SkinsFTW said:

You also didn't think they should have done it with KC either. Or Sherff. Or Williams (not Samuels) just wanted out. Who wouldn't.

I don't think there was really a way to get it done with KC.  Not for a price that was worth paying.  That's the one I'm not as mad at as other posters.  I would not have paid Kirk what he wanted, because he's not good enough to warrant it.  He has underperformed every contract he's signed since 2016. I would have tagged/traded him after 2016.  There's no way I let him play on the second franchise tag in 2017, none at all.  And I wouldn't have giving him the fully guaranteed $65M 3 year deal he wanted in before 2016 either.  I wouldn't have given him the deal the Vikings gave him, which in a way forced them to dismantle their defense.  (Though, they really didn't HAVE to, they could have done a much better job kicking it down the road, like the Rams and Saints.  The Vikings organization has stunk for a while, just nobody has noticed.)

 

Scherff was a mistake by somebody not extending him before his 5th year.  That would have been before the 2019 season.  

 

Williams came out of the blue.  He was in the middle of his contract and then came out and said the medical staff was trash and he wanted a trade.  Bruce should have just traded his ass.  But he was stubborn and arrogant, and he and Dan have a pissing match with Kyle Shanahan, so, eh it didn't happen.  Total disaster.  

 

FWIW, McKissic had an agreed to deal with Buffalo and chose to return here for some reason.  As I've said, players don't have anywhere near the angst about the organization as you do.  They get their money, like the coaches, now that Bruce is gone, like the FO, and they're fine.  

 

1 hour ago, SkinsFTW said:

Look at the guy you mentioned, Samuels. Just about anywhere else in the league he'd be in the HOF. Instead he stood strong in the middle of the dumpster fire for a decade. He's probably a martyr to Williams btw, lol. 

I never mentioned Samuels.  Who did?  He just retired, right?  

 

1 hour ago, SkinsFTW said:

You should apply for a FO position, IMO! 

Honestly, I would be a fantastic GM.   

 

And I would start with not waiting 6 months to sign players I want to re-sign.  Like, I'd have Holcomb done by now.  And Terry. 

 

You have a point that it always seems to take this team a long time to get those deals done (even though there have been VERY VERY few of them over the years.)  Maybe that is Dan. 

 

EDIT: Look, I'm not defending Dan or Bruce or Vinny.  It's incompetence at the highest level.

 

But I do think at times some posters get a little carried away and try and blame him for the Kennedy assassination.  He's done so much actual stuff that's stupid there is no reason to make stuff up or conjecture in the unknown.  

Edited June 7, 2022 by Voice_of_Reason

[SkinsFTW]

24 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I would have tagged/traded him after 2016. 

If he wasn't worth it, they should have traded him after 2015. I think that is what SM wanted, either sign him earlier in mid 2015, or trade him. SM didn't think he was that good anyway (You like that!!!). They would have gotten a first at least from somebody. (I mean, Phily got one for a recycled twice Bradbury)

 

24 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I never mentioned Samuels.  Who did?  He just retired, right?  

 

 

4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Samuels tried to force his way out.  He didn't really even give them an opportunity to try to re-sign him.  

 

 

Samuels should get his own day if anybody other than ST year after year. He was our throwback "Do Your Job" HOF type guy, playing for several Redskins teams where year after year players got paid to avoid doing their jobs, or got picked up to do jobs that they sucked at. I sometimes see HOF videos of guys like Ogden, or W Jones, or Boselli and think "we had that guy too". Except ours played for crap teams most of the time, excluding 2005 and 2007. 

 

24 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

But I do think at times some posters get a little carried away and try and blame him for the Kennedy assassination.  He's done so much actual stuff that's stupid there is no reason to make stuff up or conjecture in the unknown.  

 

OK, so I'm a conspiracy theorist.  But I am encouraged, and emboldened, when every single one of them turns out to be true, eventually! 

Edited June 8, 2022 by SkinsFTW

[kingdaddy]

6 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

If I was a good agent, I'd never want my client to be first, I'd always want them to be last.  

 

Good thing you're not Christian Kirk's agent then. When you make a statement like this you take out all of the intangibles including the idiot teams that will pay through the nose for a guy early in free agency that likely isn't worth it. Each player and case is different so this comment can't be taken as anything other than your opinion. If Terry turns down a 5 year, 100 mil offer from the Commanders and says "I'll just play out my contract and be a free agent" he risks getting injured and losing that deal. You know the risks. Sometimes signing early is the right move rather than squeezing every dollar out that you can. The WR that Philly just traded for from Tennessee signed quickly after the deal....that money is now solidly headed to his bank account. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, SkinsFTW said:

If he wasn't worth it, they should have traded him after 2015. I think that is what SM wanted, either sign him earlier in mid 2015, or trade him. SM didn't think he was that good anyway (You like that!!!). They would have gotten a first at least from somebody. (I mean, Phily got one for a recycled twice Bradbury)

 

 

Yep.  According to Mike Jones, Kyle told him directly they offered their first for Kirk, which was the 2nd pick in the draft. If I recall that was the 2017 off season.  Jay mentioned multiple times they could have gotten a first and change for Kirk that off season.

 

Even Jon Gruden thought it was so absurd he goofed on it in his own Raiders press conference. 

 

Clown show stuff.  The Eagles can get a first round and change for Bradford among other players for years and we got a third round comp pick for Kirk.  It's the poster child clown show move for Bruce-Dan, it was their Mona Lisa IMO of dysfunction. 

 

For that move not to be considered that bad.   IMO it would be like saying yeah Zorn wasn't that hot of a coach but Swinging Gate, now that play wasn't bad at all, what else do you got?  

Edited June 8, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[TheShredder]

3 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Good thing you're not Christian Kirk's agent then. When you make a statement like this you take out all of the intangibles including the idiot teams that will pay through the nose for a guy early in free agency that likely isn't worth it. Each player and case is different so this comment can't be taken as anything other than your opinion. If Terry turns down a 5 year, 100 mil offer from the Commanders and says "I'll just play out my contract and be a free agent" he risks getting injured and losing that deal. You know the risks. Sometimes signing early is the right move rather than squeezing every dollar out that you can. The WR that Philly just traded for from Tennessee signed quickly after the deal....that money is now solidly headed to his bank account. 

In the NFL, it depends a lot on the players positional value. Timing is definitely a factor in negotiating leverage. Seems some organizations are quick to pull the trigger, while others are more keen to negotiate as not to over compensate. Arguments can be made for organizations that build through the draft as well as for the ones that disregard the draft and ignore the salary cap. Agents have job to do what's best for their clients and deploy strategic planning to get the best deal done. Ultimately it would come down to a quick signing being an organization that made a mistake or is gambling. As well, a non-signing could be the same thing. Very competitive business, but one thing is certainly clear, those players that refuse to hire agents and negotiate their own deals will +90% of the time regret it. Don't take your Porsche to the bakery for a new turbo.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[TheShredder]

On 6/6/2022 at 6:59 AM, TheShredder said:

According to what is most important to WSH and Turner Jr (deep passes 20+ yds), Wentz is consistently Top 10

 

 

24 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

I posted that days ago.

Problems with PFF stats are well documented.

Wentz is a better deep ball QB statistically. Stats also show he'll be better with receivers that can win quickly. Additionally shows he doesn't choose the right read often enough and that gets him in trouble.

[goskins10]

5 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Its 3 starters and a Vet pass catcher which would be great on a team that severely lacks proven production. That's a ton of impact players.

 

HB was a first team All Pro a year ago. Can't ask for much more.

 

 

You also added $33.1M in CAP for next year. Or you can have $37.7M in dead cap. Seems interesting you are worried about this year's CAP but could care less beyond that where your suggestions destroy the CAP much worse than anything Carsons contract does. And what I put above does not even count in the following years. 

[Mrshadow008]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Would bode well for Zampese saying they plan to bomb people out of existence 

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

You also added $33.1M in CAP for next year. Or you can have $37.7M in dead cap. Seems interesting you are worried about this year's CAP but could care less beyond that where your suggestions destroy the CAP much worse than anything Carsons contract does. And what I put above does not even count in the following years. 

 

 

Paying out 33 Mil to multiple players does not carry the same CAP devastation as paying 28 Mil to one guy. I'm filling multiple holes.

 

Furthermore 2 of the three remaining players would be in contract years allowing premium positioning for new deals that would again adjust their cap hits like any player reaching the end of their deal. If desired I would be in prime position to reduce their CAP hits.

 

And on top of that I'd have a better team, which might just lure a QB to want to play here in the event things don't work out.

[goskins10]

6 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

 

Paying out 33 Mil to multiple players does not carry the same CAP devastation as paying 28 Mil to one guy. I'm filling multiple holes.

 

Furthermore 2 of the three remaining players would be in contract years allowing premium positioning for new deals that would again adjust their cap hits like any player reaching the end of their deal. If desired I would be in prime position to reduce their CAP hits.

 

And on top of that I'd have a better team, which might just lure a QB to want to play here in the event things don't work out.

 

No matter how hard you try you cannot look at this in a vacuum. There is a bigger picture here in terms of CAP this year and beyond. And the rational plan is to get a higher reward QB with an immediate off ramp, not load up on a bunch of discarded FAs at other positions that tie up your CAP for 2 or more years with no off ramp to them. 

 

If Carson plays poorly - then he can be released with no CAP hit at all or Dead Cap. If Carson is still here for his CAP hit it will be because he was successful which is significantly more valuable than the players you talked about put together. This is a QB league period. Short spending on a scrub QB for a few FAs makes no sense. 

 

And you are assuming the players you want will work out here perfectly and blend right in and be awesome where the team is accounting for Carson possibly not playing well. FAs routinely do NOT work out. It's more like 1 or 2 may make it the rest are **** and get released - for significant dead cap and additional cap hits. Can't even get away from the CAP. 

[FootballZombie]

12 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

No matter how hard you try you cannot look at this in a vacuum. There is a bigger picture here in terms of CAP this year and beyond. And the rational plan is to get a higher reward QB with an immediate off ramp, not load up on a bunch of discarded FAs at other positions that tie up your CAP for 2 or more years with no off ramp to them. 

 

If Carson plays poorly - then he can be released with no CAP hit at all or Dead Cap. If Carson is still here for his CAP hit it will be because he was successful which is significantly more valuable than the players you talked about put together. This is a QB league period. Short spending on a scrub QB for a few FAs makes no sense. 

 

And you are assuming the players you want will work out here perfectly and blend right in and be awesome where the team is accounting for Carson possibly not playing well. FAs routinely do NOT work out. It's more like 1 or 2 may make it the rest are **** and get released - for significant dead cap and additional cap hits. Can't even get away from the CAP. 

 

If your plan is to pay a nowhere near top 10 player top 10 money, I'm calling it what it is. A bad plan.

 

And if your that afraid of FAs I guess teams should never sign one ever again? They will probably bust right?

Funny how you see FAs as castoffs that have been "discarded" and then a move for a guy who is on his third team in barely over a year is a solid bet. That logic completely tracks. 

 

How about instead of betting the house on a guy who was actually "discarded", you instead spread the money around and build a stronger foundation. Then your not putting all your eggs in one basket for a guy who the team clearly does not even believe in enough to restructure his contract since they don't have faith he will be here beyond this year.

 

That must be the right play. The guy who the team itself does not believe in. 

[SkinsFTW]

Why would they want to blow the whole situation up by re-signing him when they don't have to? If he sucks he's gone, no cap hit. If he's injured and questionable, he's gone. If he's good, he's cheaper the next 2 years.

 

Pretty straight forward. No need to redo the Alex Smith idiocy, or the Mark Brunell buffoonery either.

 

It's like your trying to complicate a coin flip by replacing it with a handful of dice as if somehow that increases the odds of landing on a particular number/outcome.

 

And everybody around here already saw that movie play out, on repeat, for most of 2 decades. Even with better QBs than a failed #1 pick Jameis Winston on a new team with a jacked up acl.

Edited June 8, 2022 by SkinsFTW

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, SkinsFTW said:

Why would they want to blow the whole situation up by re-signing him when they don't have to? If he sucks he's gone, no cap hit. If he's injured and questionable, he's gone. If he's good, he's cheaper the next 2 years.

 

That's the point you shouldn't, b/c he is not a guy you can be confident will be good enough to justify being here next year. It would be a dumb move to restructure him.

 

But by not doing it, the team is acknowledging that they don't have faith he will be here for the long term.

 

So we are throwing top 10 money, at a guy we don't even believe in.

Dude playing on an audition year just screams organizational faith

Edited June 8, 2022 by FootballZombie

[SkinsFTW]

He's signed for 3 years. Aaron Rodgers just signed a 3 year deal. 

 

Why would they do it even if they thought he was the 2nd coming of John Elway? Teams don't even like to guarantee more than 2 years to a QB but with this deal they can dump him after 1 or keep him for 3, or re-sign him after the 2nd if he's top 10. 

 

If they re-signed him they definitely would have to guarantee a year more at least and for what?

[goskins10]

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

 

If your plan is to pay a nowhere near top 10 player top 10 money, I'm calling it what it is. A bad plan.

 

And if your that afraid of FAs I guess teams should never sign one ever again? They will probably bust right?

Funny how you see FAs as castoffs that have been "discarded" and then a move for a guy who is on his third team in barely over a year is a solid bet. That logic completely tracks. 

 

How about instead of betting the house on a guy who was actually "discarded", you instead spread the money around and build a stronger foundation. Then your not putting all your eggs in one basket for a guy who the team clearly does not even believe in enough to restructure his contract since they don't have faith he will be here beyond this year.

 

That must be the right play. The guy who the team itself does not believe in. , just the guys yo

 

Stop with the drama and exaggerations and trying to move the argument. The point from the beginning is that $28M was not debilitating so no one is advocating "betting the house" on anything. And the top 10 money is one season. You re the one acting like that salary changes a team. And that's total bull****. I am not afraid of FAs, again your exaggeration. I just pointed out that you presented them as inexpensive for one season but completely left out the long term effects while also making the assumption they will work out perfectly. 

 

The trade was for a guy with huge potential for a one year $28M salary which is today's market is not much at all. And I would much rather pay that money for a chance at a franchise QB, with an immediate off ramp than for the guys you laid out for the total money they will cost the team. It's not even a close choice. 

 

I am done here. The $28M is not a big deal no matter how hard you try to make it one. If he turns out to be the franchise QB we have been looking for he will be peanuts cheap at $28M considering what QBs get paid. If not, they can kick him to the curb with no further cost. It really is that simple no matter how hard you try to complicate it. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

8 hours ago, SkinsFTW said:

If he wasn't worth it, they should have traded him after 2015.

 

I'm trying to imagine the reaction around here if Kirk had been traded after the 2015 season lol...something tells me it wouldn't have been a bunch of fans saying "Kudos to Bruce Allen...now that's a smart pro-active move."

 

More like:

 

- Claims of Snyder meddling

- Claims that RG3 forced the trade because he felt threatened by Cousins

       - Numerous tweets from beat reporters with "sources" backing up that claim

- Claims that finding a franchise QB is hard so they should have just met Kirk's demands (or "requests")

- Claims that Scot M wanted to keep Kirk but was overridden

- The ever-changing story about Scot "standing on the table" to start Kirk in 2015 would have been changed for the 9th time to somehow make the team seem even more dysfunctional

- A Titanic-sized boatload of moaning, ****ing, and criticism--I mean, far more than our normal amount lol...

 

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by Califan007 The Constipated

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

I am not afraid of FAs, again your exaggeration.

 

Your argument for why my plan would fail was pretty much, "FAs don't always work out"

Not really giving me a lot to work with there. If I can't sign FAs b/c they may not work I can't do much of anything.

 

That would be like me arguing trades rarely work out, so the Wentz deal will fail. That is a terrible stance.

 

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

The point from the beginning is that $28M was not debilitating so no one is advocating "betting the house" on anything. And the top 10 money is one season. You re the one acting like that salary changes a team.

 

We have reporting that our pursuit of players was all but neutered after getting Wentz. Yeah, that not only changed the team, it altered team construction. He has greatly impacted the team.

 

 

 

I actually kinda miss the Hive. At least when it was up I could avoid the topic. Watching people go for mental gold to pretend a move has not been royally panned six ways from Sunday is not easy viewing. Wentz needs a hive thread.

Edited June 8, 2022 by FootballZombie

[TheShredder]

Carson Wents has been doing everything he can to play his best football this year. He's not taking this opportunity lightly and is essentially in what amounts to more than a contract year, as it's his CAREER on the line and he's only got 11 games to prove it.

Best example is his private coaching with Kurt Warner. (skip to 7:42 to see Wentz and Warner)

 

[goskins10]

46 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Your argument for why my plan would fail was pretty much, "FAs don't always work out"

Not really giving me a lot to work with there. If I can't sign FAs b/c they may not work I can't do much of anything

 

You made the plan as if it was guaranteed the FAs would work where the argument for Wentz included an out in case it did not work out. Can't have it both ways. 

 

46 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

 

We have reporting that our pursuit of players was all but neutered after getting Wentz. Yeah, that not only changed the team, it altered team construction.

 

Media driven narrative that is again bull****. They could have gotten money if they needed it. No matter how many times you make this claim it will not make it magically come true. Money is there if they want it. They did not want those guys. RR has typically been pretty quiet in free agency. Wentz trade did not change that. 

 

46 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

 

 

I actually kinda miss the Hive. At least when it was up I could avoid the topic. Watching people go for mental gold to pretend a move has not been royally panned six ways from Sunday is not easy viewing. Wentz needs a hive thread.

 

I will say this one last time, the point from the beginning is that its not an awful trade not that is a great trade. Wentz has a lot of up side but most importantly if he fails there is an immediate off ramp. You are free to not like the trade but when you make false comments they will be called out. 

 

Finally, you can easily avoid the topic. Just stop commenting. 

 

 

[SkinsFTW]

1 hour ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

I'm trying to imagine the reaction around here if Kirk had been traded after the 2015 season lol...something tells me it wouldn't have been a bunch of fans saying "Kudos to Bruce Allen...now that's a smart pro-active move."

 

More like:

 

- Claims of Snyder meddling

- Claims that RG3 forced the trade because he felt threatened by Cousins

       - Numerous tweets from beat reporters with "sources" backing up that claim

 

 

 

 

Yeah it would have been interesting for a while but that would have probably been the correct move and probably what SM wanted after them not paying him early. Oh and RG(Knee) was going off to Cleveland in 2016 so it wouldn't have been about him.

 

Of course, being the Redskins, they probably trade him to the Patriots for a 1st and now he's the new Tom Brady with Belichick finding some way to make it work, instead of just another mid level overpaid QB. 

 

Belichick probably uses his dark side Jedi mind tricks to convince him that it's actually better if he takes a low ball offer to back up TB for 2;years and then he later signs for 20Mil a year.

[FootballZombie]

14 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

You made the plan as if it was guaranteed the FAs would work where the argument for Wentz included an out in case it did not work out. Can't have it both ways. 

 

I never guaranteed anything of note, I said they would have a good season

We got 7 wins with TH last year. Your adding to a team that was on the cusp of a winning season.

 

You add to that team, plus face a weaker schedule and whammo, that team has a good season. I guess that's blasphemy of some kind.

 

21 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

Media driven narrative that is again bull****. They could have gotten money if they needed it. No matter how many times you make this claim it will not make it magically come true. Money is there if they want it. They did not want those guys. RR has typically been pretty quiet in free agency. Wentz trade did not change that. 

 

The team chose this direction of roster construction, the media just reported on it. Its not like the media made us sit out of FA proper, we did so ourselves.

 

Choosing to sit out FA and then blaming the media b/c we must not have wanted absolutely anybody of note? C'mon man.

There were players they wanted. They chose not to pursue them. Not hard to see why.

 

 

32 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

I will say this one last time, the point from the beginning is that its not an awful trade not that is a great trade. Wentz has a lot of up side but most importantly if he fails there is an immediate off ramp. You are free to not like the trade but when you make false comments they will be called out. 

 

Didn't realize it was false when I said he was had a top 10 cap hit this year. Or when I said he greatly impacted roster construction.  Or when I said a guy on an audition year is not exactly swimming in organizational faith.

 

I'd be cool if your the first guy to tell me I'm wrong when I say Wentz has baby hands and a noodle arm, but you contesting stuff that is true.

 

44 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

Finally, you can easily avoid the topic. Just stop commenting. 

 

And miss any shred of info about questionably human man-monster Kelley? I'll endure the delusion thank you very much

[Skinsinparadise]

Even their explanation required them to apologize and suggest they know it sounds crazy that Wentz did something right but maybe it was a fluke because of Taylor? 

 

It's amazing to me how Wentz is such a joke to the national media.  Not Daniel Jones.  Not someone like Trubisky.  But nope Wentz is the nadir of NFL Qbs. 

 

The Wentz is a comical joke of a QB is just so wild to me and especially that its from so many corners.  I like though that goofing on the goofs on Wentz is starting to become a thing with the local media now.  Finlay talked about how wild and out of hand the negativity is on Wentz.  

 

Even Standig who doesn't come like a fan of the deal recently said in spite of what many think, Wentz he doesn't think sucks.

 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-top-10-nfl-deep-passers-of-2021-three-qbs-playing-for-new-teams-i

 

Rank

7

 

Carson Wentz

Washington Commanders (Colts in '21) · Age 29

• Deep attempts: 23-of-53, 797 yards, 7:3 TD-to-INT ratio, 106.3 passer rating
• Comp: 43.4%
• xComp: 33.3%
• CPOE: +10.1%
• PASSING SCORE (on deep attempts): 93

 

Look, I understand, this might make you question my credibility. While the Next Gen Stats aren't canon, they are akin to a scientific theory. And since we're specifically digging into deep passes, I can't allow Wentz's struggles elsewhere to cloud my judgment. I won't stand for it, even if it doesn't fit conventional wisdom on the former No. 2 overall pick.

 

Shred me if you must, but before those Twitter fingers start melting your keyboard, let's reflect on who Wentz had in his backfield. Yes, that's correct: The answer is all-world running back Jonathan Taylor. Indianapolis used this advantage to great success in 2021, drawing defenses closer to the line of scrimmage to stop Taylor and victimizing them with play-action passes. From under center -- you know, the setting in which most handoffs occur -- Wentz ranked near the top of the league in the following deep passing metrics: yards, touchdowns, passer rating, completion percentage and completion percentage over expected. His play-action passer rating on deep throws was the seventh-highest in the NFL, and he posted the highest EPA and second-highest completion percentage and CPOE on these throws.

 

Wentz wasn't an all-around stud in 2021. Just ask Colts owner Jim Irsay. But because Indianapolis had a frightening stallion in the backfield, Wentz found opportunities to succeed -- and capitalized. I can't argue with this production, even if the rest of the picture was far from perfect.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

11 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

Good thing you're not Christian Kirk's agent then. When you make a statement like this you take out all of the intangibles including the idiot teams that will pay through the nose for a guy early in free agency that likely isn't worth it. Each player and case is different so this comment can't be taken as anything other than your opinion. If Terry turns down a 5 year, 100 mil offer from the Commanders and says "I'll just play out my contract and be a free agent" he risks getting injured and losing that deal. You know the risks. Sometimes signing early is the right move rather than squeezing every dollar out that you can. The WR that Philly just traded for from Tennessee signed quickly after the deal....that money is now solidly headed to his bank account. 

Right, so there's a difference between the beginning of FA period and a re-signing period.

 

Terry is not a FA.  Yet.  He's under team control.  I can't remember all of the WRs from the 2018 class, but there were a number of really good WRs in that class who were all up for an extension at the same time.

 

What I'm saying is, in that type of scenario, you don't want to be first to sign the extension, because then YOUR contract becomes the comp for other players.  You want to let other guys go first so they set the market and then you can beat it.  

 

My comment if fairly specific to this scenario.

 

In the general FA market, going first is often the right thing to do, because there is a different dynamic at play: there is limited supply and a lot of demand, and you want as much competition as possible, and teams will pay through the nose to get the player.

 

And I've said this a million times, there is absolutely no world under which Terry does not get a LTD from somebody this off season.  Most likely us.  He is not going to play on his current deal.  Any way you cut it, he loses $20M of total career compensation if he does that, which he will never get back. Even if he does want to "bet on himself" and become a FA next year, he's staring 2 years of franchise tags dead in the face, then hitting FA when he's 28.  That's not going to happen.  

 

He's getting a deal this summer.  It's just a matter of from who.  If he doesn't get one from the Commanders, he will demand a trade.  

 

The Commanders can't afford to let that happen.  So they are going to pay him.