The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Riggo#44]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

17 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

SIP, you always mean it with good spirits, never a need for you to explain that. And you can bet your sweet ass I'd love to see RW on our roster. But it also means that you have neither picks nor salary room to put players in place around him. Nice things come with a cost and that must always be considered.I'm not anti RW by any stretch. But if he's not here, I'd at least like to see whoever gets him overspend to get there.

 

Thanks.  But they probably wouldn't be out of assets. They have three #1 picks this year.  Part of the reason why some are betting on them to get Wilson is they can make a trade without even it affecting them a ton as far as draft capital compared to others.

 

They are strong as usual in the trenches as a team.  Their defense is good, much better than ours last year.  Howie Roseman doesn't draft that hot but he might be the best in the league at fleecing teams for draft picks, the Wentz trade being his latest gem -- sadly we are probably the worst at it.  So if they need to recoup draft capital, I'd bet on Roseman over any GM in the league to pull picks from trades.

 

I am actually not intimdated to see what the Eagles do with their three first round picks.  The Eagles aren't a disaster at the draft but they are below average at it.   Also picking in the mid first isn't as easy to nail picks as it is earlier in the draft ala what they did last year with Devonta Smith.

 

Russell Wilson says he wants to play into his 40s.  He's 33.  And supposedly a fitness freak.  Not as obsessive as Brady on that front but close.   He's been incredibly durable outside of his finger injury last year.     I think there s a better chance he has another 5-6 good years in him versus just 2 more. 

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

How does QBR work with rushing stats? His rushing numbers have remained consistent, which for him is important. 

 

 

No doubt a running QB carries more risk heading into a second contract. Will be interesting to see how both sides manage it. Jackson has the right to expect Allen/Mahomes dollars and Ravens having worries about his longevity. I imagine they get it figured out. 
 

The Ravens don’t have any precedence to go off of, they re trailblazers in sense of going all in on the run centric QB model. Fun stuff. I’m a sucker go against the grain and exploring other pathways to success, so I’m biased and intrigued. 

 

 

How’s this unfortunate, plug in another elite dual threat dude, if that’s the Avenue they choose. 
 

Nothing unfortunate about the Ravens QB run centric model, it’s worked. Great returns on and off the field. 

 

Jackson's running grades and passing grades (this is via PFF...they're not the end-all-be-all but they're well respected and used by organizatons around the league) have both steadily dropped every year he's played since his big 2019 season. That's one reason they rank him 17th.

 

And sure the Ravens have precedence. Other teams have tried catering to running QBs as well: Us with RG3 and the NIners with Kaep. Neither worked out for more than a season or so (as I noted, this seems very common with running QBs). 

 

As far as it being unfortunate, I do think it is...because now the Ravens will have to start their QB search again. Only this time because of the way the team is built they'll mostly have to look for another running QB...to last another few years. "Plug in another elite dual threat dude" is way easier said than done.

 

When it comes to it "working", I think it worked well at first, but I have a feeling things are going to keep coming back down to earth for them. This is all why I'm not at all interested in running QBs. The closest thing to a long term successful one is Cam. But even he only ever had 1 truly elite year and was pretty much done within 7 years. To be fair, that's longer than most other running QBs, but that probably has to do with the fact that the dude is 6'5 245lbs.

[RWJ]

23 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like Carr but Wilson is much better.  And just because they wanted Carr doesn't mean the Raiders trade him.

 

I think @Anselmheifer is right.  It would put a panic in that FO and they'd take a big chance on Watson assuming they can talk Watson into coming here.

 

I think they got the PR disaster of having the Eagles end up with the best QB in the division.  Tough enough to come out of this off season without the guy but 10 times tougher IMO to strike out and see your division foe get that guy.

 

Oh yeah.  Wilson is better than Carr, no doubt.  As far going all in for Watson after 4/1, I wouldn't do it.  There are big red flags and we already have issues right now with the owner.  Hopefully, that gets resolved soon.  If we did trade for Watson, I don't know how it would affect other players signing with us.  It may or may not but for now I's stay away from Watson.  JMO.  Like all of us I'd like to see some movement and like someone posted, it probably starts at the Combine.  

[wit33]

40 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 

 I agree with this I think L.Jackson is  really a top Qb. 

 

His impact is elite, it’s undeniable. 

 

31 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Jackson's running grades and passing grades (this is via PFF...they're not the end-all-be-all but they're well respected and used by organizatons around the league) have both steadily dropped every year he's played since his big 2019 season. That's one reason they rank him 17th.

 

 

His running grade was 17th? What I’m asking is does his QBR grade take into account his rushing totals? Trying to follow.
 

31 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

And sure the Ravens have precedence. Other teams have tried catering to running QBs as well: Us with RG3 and the NIners with Kaep. Neither worked out for more than a season or so (as I noted, this seems very common with running QBs). 
 

I believe they used those examples as what not to do before deciding to go all in and draft Lamar. We are headed into year 5 of Lamar Jackson lol, my guess is you’ve had this same narrative from day 1, that it will all come crashing down. An MVP, 3 playoff appearances, 2 division titles, 2 thousand yard rush seasons, and great durability to date. 

 

When do you become wrong? Year 6? 7? 8? 

 

31 minutes ago, mistertim said:

As far as it being unfortunate, I do think it is...because now the Ravens will have to start their QB search again. Only this time because of the way the team is built they'll mostly have to look for another running QB...to last another few years. "Plug in another elite dual threat dude" is way easier said than done.

 

Most likely they get it worked out.
 

Plugging an elite athlete at the QB spot is easier than attempting to find the next unicorn QB. 

 

31 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

When it comes to it "working", I think it worked well at first, but I have a feeling things are going to keep coming back down to earth for them. This is all why I'm not at all interested in running QBs. The closest thing to a long term successful one is Cam. But even he only ever had 1 truly elite year and was pretty much done within 7 years. To be fair, that's longer than most other running QBs, but that probably has to do with the fact that the dude is 6'5 245lbs.

 

We are at 4 years of great production from Jackson, he’s not going to slow down any time soon. He’s a different runner than Newton, his slight build hasn’t been an issue to date. This logic is being proven wrong. The most dangerous hits are the ones not expected, QB designed runs are far less risky.
 

There should be a rating of being able to avoid hits like a QBs arm strength is rated. Jackson avoid hit trait would rival Josh Allen’s arm strength trait. 
 

 

Side note: Point me in direction of next unicorn pocket/mobile future hall of fame QB and I’m all in. Ask me to point you to the next elite athlete at the QB spot who will provide an elite run and play action game, Malik Willis. It’s all about probability for me, especially if I’m picking outside the top 10. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by wit33

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

If the eagles trade for Russ, and Watson doesn’t catch a charge on 4/1, I’m making a trade for Watson.

 

Regardless of what the Eagles do, if 4/1 rolls around and all I have at the time to show for it is a 10Mil contract for Trubs/Mariota, I'm taking homerun hacks at a cleared Watson.

 

That is after Free Agency, so you gotta imagine the majority of QB options are off the table at that point. Most major player trades would have already gone down.

The only other option would be hopeing for a guy in the draft, which is not exactly guaranteed, or hopping on someone who becomes available as a result of draft day.

[Redskins 2021]

 The panthers apparently offered Minn 2 first rd picks and a second for Kirk Cousins.

[Mrshadow008]

54 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The NFC West with Wilson, Murray, Stafford in the same division is considered by some as the best division in the league.

 

The reason why almost everyone picked Dallas to win the division even after our ballyhooed season in 2020 as far as the defense goes and the Dallas defense preseason was considered crappy -- was Dak.  Typically, not always but most of the time the team with the best QB wins the division.

 

Fortunately for us Dak is very good but arguably not elite.  He's good enough to make the Cowboys the favorite to win the division but he doesn't make Dallas insurmountable.  The main plot line why the NFL East is considered "meh" is that three teams have average to below average QB play.

 

The reason why Rivera is willing to trade the store to get Wilson (according to some) isn't because he's dense but because he realizes the power of a franchise QB but it goes double in a division like this where you have an opportunity.  Wilson would IMO be the best QB in the division.  If all of that went down where the Eagles have the best Qb in the division, wow.  It would IMO make this division a two way battle between Dallas and the Eagles almost every year.  

 

So yeah to have a shot they'd have to do something really desperate to offset a Wilson to Philly move.   

Agreed on why they are desperate. The roster is a lot closer to the level of Dallas than people think despite the two games. Hell the d held their offense to 20 points in the first game despite being down to like 5th and 6th string d linemen. And the talent disparity is likely going to evaporate even further. Dallas has I believe 11 or 12 starters going into fa to go with cap issues and now taking about releasing cooper and d.Lawrence. Saw this earlier today as well. Roster is so close. I don’t care about the draft capital right now you’ve got a real shot with a legit qb right now. 

[mistertim]

4 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

His impact is elite, it’s undeniable. 

 

 

 

His running grade was 17th? What I’m asking is does his QBR grade take into account his rushing totals? Trying to follow.
 

I believe they used those examples as what not to do before deciding to go all in and draft Lamar. We are headed into year 5 of Lamar Jackson lol, my guess is you’ve had this same narrative from day 1, that it will all come crashing down. An MVP, 3 playoff appearances, 2 division titles, 2 thousand yard rush seasons, and great durability to date. 

 

When do you become wrong? Year 6? 7? 8? 

 

 

Most likely they get it worked out.
 

Plugging an elite athlete at the QB spot is easier than attempting to find the next unicorn QB. 

 

 

We are at 4 years of great production from Jackson, he’s not going to slow down any time soon. He’s a different runner than Newton, his slight build hasn’t been an issue to date. This logic is being proven wrong. The most dangerous hits are the ones not expected, QB designed runs are far less risky.
 

There should be a rating of being able to avoid hits like a QBs arm strength is rated. Jackson avoid hit trait would rival Josh Allen’s arm strength trait. 
 

 

Side note: Point me in direction of next unicorn pocket/mobile future hall of fame QB and I’m all in. Ask me to point you to the next elite athlete at the QB spot who will provide an elite run and play action game, Malik Willis. It’s all about probability for me, especially if I’m picking outside the top 10. 

 

His PFF grade this past season was 17th as far as their overall QB rankings. He also happened to have the 17 ranked QBR. So those are two separate things that also happened to have the number 17. His PFF grades (overall, passing, running) from 2021 were 70.2, 65.9, and 75.8. Contrast that to 2019 (91.9, 85.3, 90.5) and 2020 (81.5, 76.9, 79.3) and you can clearly see his grades steadily going down. 

 

I haven't had the "narrative" about Jackson from day 1. I've been curious how it would unfold. And it seems so far to be unfolding the way most other running QBs have. One stellar year followed by dwindling numbers. Maybe he'll be the exception and completely turn it around, but I wouldn't exactly put money on it, given historical precedent with running QBs.

 

And we're not at 4 years of great production. He has one year of mediocre production (but a rookie so he gets a mulligan there), one year of elite production, one year of very good production, and then finally one year of mediocre production again (unless you're going to try and claim that 16 passing TDs, 13 INTs and 2 rushing TDs is elite. if so...whatever works for you).

[FootballZombie]

9 minutes ago, Mrshadow008 said:

Agreed on why they are desperate. The roster is a lot closer to the level of Dallas than people think despite the two games

 

Off topic but can someone explain to me like I'm 5 how its possible for Houston to be negative in that graph? How is it possible to draft a team so bad it puts your chances in the negatives.

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by FootballZombie

[Zim489]

13 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 The panthers apparently offered Minn 2 first rd picks and a second for Kirk Cousins.

Link?

[FLSkinz83]

22 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 The panthers apparently offered Minn 2 first rd picks and a second for Kirk Cousins.

 

Someone needs to drug test them

[Redskins 2021]

11 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

Link?

It's on the las vegas radiers message board.  

Edited February 22, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[Bifflog]

16 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Off topic but can someone explain to me like I'm 5 how its possible for Houston to be negative in that graph? How is it possible to draft a team so bad it puts your chances in the negatives.

 

 

 

I think it means they have drafted players (excluding QBs) who are collectively slightly worse than the best available minimum salary players?

 

Edit: It says TOTAL so it must be cumulative, so it could be biased by number of draft picks...

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Bifflog

[Anselmheifer]

42 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Regardless of what the Eagles do, if 4/1 rolls around and all I have at the time to show for it is a 10Mil contract for Trubs/Mariota, I'm taking homerun hacks at a cleared Watson.

 

That is after Free Agency, so you gotta imagine the majority of QB options are off the table at that point. Most major player trades would have already gone down.

The only other option would be hopeing for a guy in the draft, which is not exactly guaranteed, or hopping on someone who becomes available as a result of draft day.

Agree, but I wanted to specifically point out that you’d be taking a hack at a Watson that still has 22 pending civil suits. There would be bad press. And he might be suspended for a period by the league for conduct detrimental, but he wouldn’t be charged and you know he’d play at some point this season. It would be ugly. But you’d get a 27 year old top 5 QB in the league. He’d be the best QB in the division even if Russ goes to the eagles, and he’d also be the youngest of the big 3.

[markmills67]

58 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 The panthers apparently offered Minn 2 first rd picks and a second for Kirk Cousins.

If they did and the Vikings turned it down they are stupid. 

[zCommander]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think @zCommander would turn down a trade of only a 1 for TH.  Maybe the #1 overall would be enough.  MAYBE.  (But maybe not)

 

Please I have standards. 3 1st and nothing less. 

[88Comrade2000]

4 hours ago, Captain James said:

My Packer-fan buddy says Aaron goes on that show frequently, so this is probably nothing to get too excited over.

Yeah, weekly. There was no news; first thing he said. He will wait until right before the tampering period starts in free agency; to announce whatever he’s doing.

[FootballZombie]

7 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Yeah, weekly. There was no news; first thing he said. He will wait until right before the tampering period starts in free agency; to announce whatever he’s doing.

 

He probably want's to see how intent GB is on mortgaging their future to bring a lot of their players back before he chooses to leave/stay.

 

You can choose to kick the Cap can down the road, but eventually the bill comes due.

[TheBlueIndian]

If that's a real offer, Kirk is setting the market for a mid-tier talent so high that we will have to over-pay for a guy like Jimmy G which in a way might help the Commanders because I don't think even Vinny C would pay that kind of tax. Thus, making it more palatable to the fans to just sign a Dalton, Mariota, Bridgewater type and keep taking shots at the draft. 

 

 

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

21 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Please I have standards. 3 1st and nothing less. 

I mean, one of them has to be in the top 5 picks too since we’re giving up the next undiscovered Joe Montana.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

[wit33]

17 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

His PFF grade this past season was 17th as far as their overall QB rankings. He also happened to have the 17 ranked QBR. So those are two separate things that also happened to have the number 17. His PFF grades (overall, passing, running) from 2021 were 70.2, 65.9, and 75.8. Contrast that to 2019 (91.9, 85.3, 90.5) and 2020 (81.5, 76.9, 79.3) and you can clearly see his grades steadily going down. 
 

 

So his running is factored into the overall QBR total, right? Be patient, trying to understand, meaning PFF will average out the passing and running numbers to create the overall QBR? 
 

Was there a QB who ranked higher than him in running?

 

17 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I haven't had the "narrative" about Jackson from day 1. I've been curious how it would unfold. And it seems so far to be unfolding the way most other running QBs have. One stellar year followed by dwindling numbers. Maybe he'll be the exception and completely turn it around, but I wouldn't exactly put money on it, given historical precedent with running QBs.

 

You are choosing to diminish his MVP season as “one stellar season” and dismiss his other seasons of great individual and team production to bolster your position. He’s had 4 seasons of good to great individual and team productivity. Precedence of RG3 and Kaep no longer apply, he’s produced more than both those guys combined in every category. 

 

17 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

And we're not at 4 years of great production. He has one year of mediocre production (but a rookie so he gets a mulligan there), one year of elite production, one year of very good production, and then finally one year of mediocre production again (unless you're going to try and claim that 16 passing TDs, 13 INTs and 2 rushing TDs is elite. if so...whatever works for you).

Check the record of the Ravens his rookie year before he became the starter, then tell me that’s a mediocre season. 
 

This past season he was leading the injury ravaged Ravens to the playoffs before getting injured with an ankle himself. 
 

His impact is undeniable and consistent over 4 seasons of football. You don’t like the running QB, that doesn’t make it wrong. Can you win a SB with one, that’s the next question to be answered, I’ll give you that. They’ve knocked at the door, but haven’t broken through just yet. 

 

[mistertim]

17 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

So his running is factored into the overall QBR total, right? Be patient, trying to understand, meaning PFF will average out the passing and running numbers to create the overall QBR? 
 

Was there a QB who ranked higher than him in running?

 

 

You are choosing to diminish his MVP season as “one stellar season” and dismiss his other seasons of great individual and team production to bolster your position. He’s had 4 seasons of good to great individual and team productivity. Precedence of RG3 and Kaep no longer apply, he’s produced more than both those guys combined in every category. 

 

Check the record of the Ravens his rookie year before he became the starter, then tell me that’s a mediocre season. 
 

This past season he was leading the injury ravaged Ravens to the playoffs before getting injured with an ankle himself. 
 

His impact is undeniable and consistent over 4 seasons of football. You don’t like the running QB, that doesn’t make it wrong. Can you win a SB with one, that’s the next question to be answered, I’ll give you that. They’ve knocked at the door, but haven’t broken through just yet. 

 

 

QBR takes into account all facets of the game. So his good running ability made up somewhat for his mediocre passing and ended up with him at 17th overall QBR.

 

Again, this is separate from a PFF score (which I gave for all 3 of his past season), though they both do include running.

 

And I'm not "diminishing" Jackson's MVP season any more than I "diminished" Cam's MVP season. What I'm saying is that with running QBs they rarely have more than one standout elite season. But he did not have 4 seasons of great productivity. He had an MVP year, followed by a good year, followed by a mediocre year. Unless you only care about rushing, in which case I'd suggest we move this to a Running Back thread. Again, his PFF numbers in every category have consistently gone down since his one elite year.

 

As far as impact, sure of course he has an impact. But that's totally different than being a long term upper echelon QB, which IMO he isn't going to be. Until we see otherwise, to me running QBs will pretty much always be a flash in the pan who don't have a ton of long term success.

 

As far as liking or disliking running QBs, I (and it seems almost every NFL coachand FO) prefer guys who are top passers first, but can run second. Running QBs are simply never going to have the lifespan in the NFL of guys who are pass first. And that's not just because of potential injuries, but because how quickly that sort of truly elite running ability starts to peter out with age.

 

Not to mention that almost every time a new running QB is introduced to the league there are oohs and aahhs for a short period of time until defenses figure them out. Which pretty much always seems to happen.

 

So no, I'm not interested in a running QB. If that's what we think Willis will primarily be, then that's a hard pass. However, if the Washington coaches truly believe they can mold him into an upper echelon pass first QB then I'm fine with it. But as I've also noted before I'm not quite sure Dan or the fans would have the kind of patience necessary for that sort of player.

[Voice_of_Reason]

38 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

This is the post of the day.