The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

Thats the thing though. Maybe these guys suck. Thing is we see glimpses of them showing something and being just replaced. People love to talk about Wilson and Cousins and look at what it took for them to get a chance. These are all names that we've discussed before and some just didn't have it. But others like Rypien or Rudolph or Beathard or even Dobbs did show something. It may not have been the superstar potential, but be honest did Zach Wilson show superstar potential at first? Tua? Heck, Lawrence? That's my point. These guys are replaceable because they're drafted to be replacements. They're not seen as the saviors. It takes some dramatic feat like what happened to Keenum where not one but two guys ahead of him went down with season ending injuries, and they still got rid of him after he took them to the championship game. Rarely do you see something like what Gibbs did with Rypien or Parcells with Romo or N. Turner did with Green where the coach sees the special talent in the young undrafted QB so he keeps him around for years and then finally gives him an opportunity after years of teaching. 

 

But again, we're approaching this from different standpoints. I'm saying that these guys can develop into serviceable starters and be better than some of the guys who keep getting signed to rosters to be bums. I mean Jared Goff sucks. Sam Darnold sucks. Josh Rosen sucks. Mark Sanchez sucks. RG3 sucks. There's a list of these QBs who are making rounds in the NFL as backups for whatever reason and they're getting practice snaps and starts or backup reps instead of these younger guys. But I've diverged this thread too much. I'm tired of talking about my love for lower round QBs. I'm going to take a break from that to focus on Dallas. 

 

But QBs are taken in the 1st round for a reason. Of course as we know it's not an exact science, but coaches know certain mental and physical traits they're looking for, along with certain things on film. It's not like they have a dart board with 30 QBs and just throw it and whichever they hit they grab in the 1st.

 

The mid and late round guys were drafted there for a reason. Sometimes those reasons were wrong (Wilson, Brady, etc), but more often than not they're probably right. Could they be developed? Sure, possibly. But why take a guy there and spend a bunch of resources trying to develop him into a serviceable NFL QB instead of taking a guy with much better traits and film in the 1st and trying to develop him into an elite NFL QB?

 

I'm not saying don't take mid or late round QBs. Those guys may have lots of upside and could turn into at least decent backups (if you draft a mid or late round QB and he develops into a quality NFL backup, that's a huge draft pick win, considering how many of those mid and late round guys do nothing).

 

And yes, every once in a while one of them will turn into at least a legit NFL starter, but it's super rare. And again, you're promoting an unfalsifiable hypothesis and it sounds like it's coming from more of a place of emotion than logic (not that there's necessarily anything wrong with that).

Edited December 8, 2021 by mistertim

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

But again, we're approaching this from different standpoints. I'm saying that these guys can develop into serviceable starters and be better than some of the guys who keep getting signed to rosters to be bums. I mean Jared Goff sucks. Sam Darnold sucks. Josh Rosen sucks. Mark Sanchez sucks. RG3 sucks. There's a list of these QBs who are making rounds in the NFL as backups for whatever reason and they're getting practice snaps and starts or backup reps instead of these younger guys. But I've diverged this thread too much. I'm tired of talking about my love for lower round QBs. I'm going to take a break from that to focus on Dallas. 

 

It's rare for freak talent at QB to fall to the later rounds.  I'd be with you if that's how it went down.   The reason why for example its not hard to find RBs lower in the draft is that you got plenty of freak talents that fall -- guys that I liked in the last draft for example like K. Herbert had production and great speed-metrics, yet he fell to the 6th round.  Those type of things are really rare for QBs.   

 

You don't see Qbs for example with rocket arms and freak speed fall to the 3rd round.  And the rare times you do, see Russell Wilson, there is usually a strong explanation for it -- for example, there was a period where there was concerned about hight as an example.  Or lets say its a dude with lots of off field issues, etc.

 

Following the draft for years, its just really rare to read or hear that this dude has it all at QB, yet they fall to the later rounds.

 

Part of the problem for the Qb spot is they are so hard to find and teams can reach for them that you rarely have surprise fallers like you do at other spots.  I can think of freak WRs, like Metcalf falls past the first round.  It happens a lot at other spots.  But for QBs, not so much. 

 

For Qb, you are much more likely to see a team reach for 2nd round level talent (see the WFT on Campbell, Ramsey, Haskins) or the Vikings on Ponder, etc than you do see a first round talent drop to the later rounds. 

Edited December 8, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

2 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Taylor could be our version of the Chiefs era Alex Smith.  He takes you to the playoffs but doesn’t do much in the playoffs.  The team wins and it gives them time to find their Mahoney in a future draft.

 

If Taylor finishes well, he will get an extension and raise. If there’s no one to Ron’s liking in 22; he could very well pass on qb and see what’s available in 23,24.

 

 

Yep this is the analogy I made as well. They're not 100% the same type of player but just in terms of being a solid placeholder that allows the team to stabilize while building up the rest of the roster.

 

And people forget, 2017 Alex Smith was at one point playing MVP caliber football.

[Skinsinparadise]

13 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

 

 

And people forget, 2017 Alex Smith was at one point playing MVP caliber football.

 

That was his career year, 2017, his only 4000 yard season, only 25 TD season, but if I recall he struggled some for a spell of that season towards the end.  Jason Campbell played MVP football for the first half of 2008.  

 

For the issues we've had at QB under Dan, we've had our share of success if judged by a portion of a season.  Gus was hot for awhile.  Campbell was hot.  Alex never really got hot here but the team did win a good share of games under him.  Todd Collins had a nice run and was a temporary hero. 

 

As for Heinicke, I think there is a good chance he's different than those guys.  But part of why I want to see the full sample size of the season is we are not unfamilar with some temporary success at the spot.  I previously said I need a half a season to judge Taylor but I've changed it to a full season because of the "meh" 4 game spell he's had in the mix of the season -- so hopefully that's behind him, I think it probably is behind him, but I want to see it play out. 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/188591

Last season started as well Redskins fans could have hoped. With a 6-2 record, Jim Zorn seemed to be pushing all the right bottons to lead Washington back to the promised land. With wins over Dallas, Philadelphia and Arizona, they were clearly a team capable of going toe to toe with the best of the NFC.

Things quickly became unravelled in the following weeks.

Discussion of a Jason Campbell run at MVP 

Edited December 9, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[zCommander]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Jason Campbell played MVP football for the first half of 2018.  

 

 

I am pretty sure it was 2008 as Campbell retired in 2015.

Yeah Campbell started 6-2 that year but ended the season with 8-8. 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, zskins said:

 

I am pretty sure it was 2008 as Campbell retired in 2015.

Yeah Campbell started 6-2 that year but ended the season with 8-8. 

 

Yep that was a typo on my end.  And yep 6-2 which was mentioned in the article I posted in that same post. 

Edited December 9, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Campbell was not a MVP contender in the first half of 2008.  If anyone was getting any sort of buzz, it would have been Clinton Portis.  With a mention that the OL was playing extremely well.

[Koolblue13]

We absolutely have to draft a QB this offseason. 

[zCommander]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

We absolutely have to draft a QB this offseason. 

 

No not really. There is the FA too.

[Koolblue13]

5 minutes ago, zskins said:

 

No not really. There is the FA too.

We need to swing on a QB of the future.

 

I was into the Trubisky reclamation idea, and I'm not completely out of it because I think he can be clearly better than anyone on the roster now, but I'm fine with Heinicke and Allen moving forward if we invest in a rookie.

 

We need a legit starter on offense, who when the run game is stopped and we need TDs, can stretch the field and score. We don't have that now. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

We need to swing on a QB of the future.

 

I was into the Trubisky reclamation idea, and I'm not completely out of it because I think he can be clearly better than anyone on the roster now, but I'm fine with Heinicke and Allen moving forward if we invest in a rookie.

 

We need a legit starter on offense, who when the run game is stopped and we need TDs, can stretch the field and score. We don't have that now. 

 

I don't think Trubisky would be clearly better than Heinicke or Allen.  I'm not sure why you're elevating Trubisky here.  Doesn't seem like he's played well enough to be clearly better than other NFL journeymen.

[Koolblue13]

Just now, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

I don't think Trubisky would be clearly better than Heinicke or Allen.  I'm not sure why you're elevating Trubisky here.  Doesn't seem like he's played well enough to be clearly better than other NFL journeymen.

He's as mobile as Allen and Heinicke, but he can make all the throws they can't. Especially Heinicke who has a very limited arm.

[zCommander]

3 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

He's as mobile as Allen and Heinicke, but he can make all the throws they can't. Especially Heinicke who has a very limited arm.

 

Does he have all other tangibles Taylor has or only just a strong arm and mobility?

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, zskins said:

 

Does he have all other tangibles Taylor has or only just a strong arm and mobility?

Got me

[DWinzit]

55 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

We need to swing on a QB of the future.

 

I was into the Trubisky reclamation idea, and I'm not completely out of it because I think he can be clearly better than anyone on the roster now, but I'm fine with Heinicke and Allen moving forward if we invest in a rookie.

 

We need a legit starter on offense, who when the run game is stopped and we need TDs, can stretch the field and score. We don't have that now. 

If for some reason they don't draft a QB by day two, they must bring in a better answer than Allen to at least back up TH.

 

Reports were the staff already expressed interest in Mitch T and he has been playing for Rivera's trusted friends. He would be a logical option. I could see him not wanting to come to Washington because if TH continues to shine, Mitch will be no better than he currently is behind Allen in Buffalo.

[Koolblue13]

21 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

If for some reason they don't draft a QB by day two, they must bring in a better answer than Allen to at least back up TH.

 

Reports were the staff already expressed interest in Mitch T and he has been playing for Rivera's trusted friends. He would be a logical option. I could see him not wanting to come to Washington because if TH continues to shine, Mitch will be no better than he currently is behind Allen in Buffalo.

Unless we go into camp with an honest competition again and Mitch beats them out. I doubt he would, based on how complicated Turners offense is. Although, Heinicke and Allen knew it last year and Fitz handily beat them both out, so its possible. 

 

I think the only locks are Heinicke and us drafting someone. Allen's a good back up to have, but I could see us going for another vet with upside.

[Dan T.]

You do not need a top 5 pick to get a franchise quarterback. Among current NFL starters, well over half were acquired without a top 5 pick:

 

Justin Herbert - 6th overall pick

Daniel Jones - 6th overall pick

Josh Allen - 7th overall pick

Ryan Tannehill - 8th overall

Patrick Mahomes - 10th overall pick

Justin Fields 11th overall pick (or Andy Dalton 2nd round)

Ben Roethlisberger - 11th overall

Mac Jones - 15th overall pick

Aaron Rodgers - 24th overall pick

Teddy Bridgewater - 32nd overall pick

Lamar Jackson - 32nd overall pick

Jalen Hurts - 2nd round pick

Jimmy Garoppolo - 2nd round pick

Derek Carr - 2nd round pick

Russell Wilson - 3rd round pick

Dak Prescott - 4th round pick

Kirk Cousins - 4 round pick

Tyrod Taylor - 6th round pick

Tom Brady - 6th round pick

Taylor Heinicke - undrafted

Taysom Hill - undrafted

 

There are some pretty decent quarterbacks on that list.  In fact, I would stack that list up against the list of current starters acquired through a top 5 pick:

Joe Burrow

Baker Mayfield

Carson Wentz

Trevor Lawrence

Tua Tagovailoa

Matt Ryan

Kyler Murray

Cam Newton

Jared Goff

Matthew Stafford

Daniel Jones

 

 

(Fun fact: Like Taylor Heinicke, Tony Romo and Kurt Warner were undrafted.)

 

 

 

 

Edited December 9, 2021 by Dan T.

[Koolblue13]

You don't need running shoes to jog, but it really ****ing helps.

[Warhead36]

You may not need a top 5 pick but a lot of the guys are drafted around the top 10 or top half. And they're almost all 1st rounders. Its all about playing %s.

[Est.1974]

Having a top 5 pick is like pissing your pants because you have 70mil in cap space.

 

Its what you do with it, it’s about making the rights decisions, irrespective of position.

 

As an aside, Jamin Davis was picked at what, #19, got an 8m signing bonus and fully guaranteed contract, we aren’t doing that at QB if Heinicke see this out reasonably well.

 

[Berggy9598]

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Having a top 5 pick is like pissing your pants because you have 70mil in cap space.

 

Its what you do with it, it’s about making the rights decisions, irrespective of position.

 

As an aside, Jamin Davis was picked at what, #19, got an 8m signing bonus and fully guaranteed contract, we aren’t doing that at QB if Heinicke see this out reasonably well.

 

Reasonably well at QB doesn’t win you a Super Bowl anymore or even get you to the playoffs on a consistent basis unless you have an all time great defense or Derrick Henry. There’s a good chance reasonably well QB play gets us swept by Dallas, which would turn the lights out on the playoff run. 

[skinny21]

54 minutes ago, Berggy9598 said:

Reasonably well at QB doesn’t win you a Super Bowl anymore or even get you to the playoffs on a consistent basis unless you have an all time great defense or Derrick Henry. There’s a good chance reasonably well QB play gets us swept by Dallas, which would turn the lights out on the playoff run. 

I agree in the sense that I want us to shoot for that elite qb, but I’m also hoping your post doesn’t age well, lol.

Would be pretty great if we made it for the 2nd year in a row with the qbs we’ve had… especially considering our D was atrocious for most of this season. 

[Berggy9598]

32 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I agree in the sense that I want us to shoot for that elite qb, but I’m also hoping your post doesn’t age well, lol.

Would be pretty great if we made it for the 2nd year in a row with the qbs we’ve had… especially considering our D was atrocious for most of this season. 

We were last in the league and historically bad on time of possession for the first 4 weeks which really compounded all the issues in the secondary, but the defense has been very good since then. The last two defenses we played were torched by Jimmy G and the Cowboys without Cooper and Lamb respectively, so the offense and the QB need to play better. 

[wit33]

1 hour ago, Berggy9598 said:

Reasonably well at QB doesn’t win you a Super Bowl anymore or even get you to the playoffs on a consistent basis unless you have an all time great defense or Derrick Henry. There’s a good chance reasonably well QB play gets us swept by Dallas, which would turn the lights out on the playoff run. 

Know what else doesn’t consistently get you to the playoffs, young and inexperienced QBs who are 95% likely to bust/become below average starters in the league. 
 

Average to above QB play can get you to the promise land, it happens, but they must be at a bargain compared to the elite QBs they are competing against in the playoffs. Makes zero sense to have an average to above guy competing with an elite guy with only a 1-3% cap difference. 
 

If I’m going average to above they must be at 2-6% of the cap and have running ability to make up for their deficiencies whatever they are. This is the game the Patriots are playing at the QB spot is my guess. Be cheap at QB while not elite and attempt to dominate in every other area. 

 

 

[TheShredder]

What kind of message do you send when you reach for a QB that isn't clearly an upgrade with an entire roster that is 100% behind TH?

This will play into any off-season additions for sure.

If you don't have an outstanding prospect that's within your reach via NFL draft, then they're not going to trade up.

Should the opportunity present itself and they acquire the services of a top 10 free agent QB, then it won't be a true competition going into the next season. They would have bet the farm and be tied to that play.

I think these are the two scenarios for acquiring a QB in the off-season. 

The scenario I would most like to see, that would be viewed as positive from the team would be adding solid competition for TH and allowing for a full QB competition.

If you get a shot at a free agent MVP QB, then you're going all-in and TH is your backup, which might be the best one of the shots you'd take with RR as your HBC in year 3.  That doesn't happen very often, so if it does, then I think they'd pull the trigger on that short list of players.