The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[The Consigliere]

54 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I disagree with literally every word you typed about Fake News Florio.  I don't know the other guy.  Maybe he's a scum sucking bottom dweller also.

 

Florio is despicable.  

I don't like Florio, lol, at all, I actually dislike him a bit, but his site was a rumor aggregator and as a result, got some stuff wrong and some right like any site. It's annoying, maybe its worse than annoying, but I don't really mind it. But Edelstein, my gawd man, just think of the exact polar opposite of espn's much beloved late, great John Clayton and Chris Mortenson, as an insider, smug, d-bagy, wrong litrerally every time he reports anything ever, real used car salesman vibe, and you've got him. There's like two edelstein bits uploaded to youtube for reasons unknown, one about the '91 draft, one about rich kotite, looks like he might have been right on the latter (at least his opinion of kotite's talent anyway). But my gosh, I still can't figure out how some people got some gigs. Just mind boggling. 

[FootballZombie]

7 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Lamar absolutely annihilated Daniels numbers in terms of QBR every single year of college, save for Daniels QBR as a 5th year senior, and even at that age, Lamar was still better because Lamar was doing the same thing, but at the NFL. A #1 QBR ranking in college as a 5th year senior at age 22 does not trump a #1 QBR ranking in the NFL, at age 22, which is what Lamar produced in his 2nd year.

 

I'm not gonna argue he was polished coming out, he wasn't, but he was a better prospect, period every single year of college in comparison except for Daniels '23, and even Daniel's '23 isn't more impressive than Lamar's profile when you compare what they were doing at similar ages. Lamar didn't need five freaking years to produce a season like Daniels produced in '23, he did that in his second year of college, in 2016, earning 4th in overall QBR #'s, which not coincidentally was why you saw him listed inside a bunch of top 3's and top 5's after the 2017 NFL draft in late April and May of  '17. I don't really know why he fell like he did, though I know that Simmons never stops mentioning how irate he and Patriots fans were when they passed on a dropping Lamar for Sony Michel...but it seems quite clear that the argument that Daniels is or was a better prospect has to be premised on totally ignoring everything Daniels did for 80% of his college seasons which is just ridiculously silly, especially when you compare what they were doing at similar ages, it's no contest. The NFL botched this, period. 

 

I smashed this same basic argument when we acquired Wentz. Dude was coming off a great QBR year but it is a virtually worthless metric when directly comparing QBs. They are all asked to do drastically different things. I don't care that Lamar had a great QBR, he could barely complete passes at the college level. He never had a season w/ more than 60% completion percentage. That is absurdly terrible.

 

Lamar was a poor passer coming out of college. Great player. Had the potential for great impact, but a poor passer. Full stop. Any other determination is particularly laughable.

 

 

End of the day, if you think you have an argument that a dude who was barely a first rounder and taken QB5 is the same level of prospect as a dude who is very likely going in the tippy top of the draft and scouts have rated higher than the better half of recent #1s then you need to re-evaluate your scouting method and stop incorporating what he has done once he entered the league. Lamar was not an elite prospect, or he would have been treated like one. He became one of the NFLs best players.

[DiscoBob]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

We need @KDawg back. The Penix narrative was his thing before it became cool 

 

We need PFF to create the... Passer Efficiency Net Index

 

The PENIX stat

[illone]

Cool interview

 

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

49 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't get how our regime can not fall in love with Maye. Kid has it all.

 

 

I can’t help liking Maye, just watching him in that video where he was talking about the Top Golf event I could see that he has the kind of personality I’d get along with.

 

I think whoever we take out of those three guys we;re gonna end up liking, but just on the personality/leadership spectrum if I was being honest I’d say McCarthy or Maye. Not that anything’s wrong with Jayden’s personality, I just for some reason don’t get the sane vibe from him.

 

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, DiscoBob said:

 

We need PFF to create the... Passer Efficiency Net Index

 

The PENIX stat

 

How did you miss the obvious— Passer Efficiency Net Index Statistic 😜

 

 

Edited April 22 by CommanderInTheRye

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, samy316 said:

 

This fan base is very toxic, I'm in disbelief of what I hear regarding both QBs, whether it be this forum or online in general.  How can any of you be so sure that whoever we draft is destined to fail and that the coaches will be fired within 3 years?  I think a LOT of our fans need to step away from the ledge, get some xanax or mary jane in them or something, and leave the drama alone.

You could read the arguments. It's really quite simple:

Daniels: Checks a gazillion boxes suggestive of high bust rate, including very late big time breakout/overage prospect.

Maye: Accuracy issues, and mechanics/feet.

JJ: Small sample size trap, not enough reps period, some issues clearly in the data, along with some surprising positives in data that still can't negate the negative concerns.

Penix: Injured, injured, injured, freaking sixth year senior, erratic accuracy issues etc. 

 

All of them have boxes checked suggestive of potential for bust. In my experience, the bulk of the data we have on Daniels is the most alarming of the available data because its most consistently linked with future bust issues, but of course, that's just an opinion. Take it as you see.

 

For most of the Maye group, of which I'm part, the argument is simple: he's got some good metric data, he blew up immediately in his first starts, he has the ideal traits and measurements, and he did it all young, while the alarming traits are almost uniformly less alarming then the traits associated with Daniels, JJ and Penix (you can fix mechanics, and footwork, you can't change what happened at age 19/20/21 in college-either you were elite or you were not, you can't change being 6'4-235 or whatever, you either are tall with a big frame, or you're not etc). 

 

People are gonna disagree, there are different thinks people believe in or trust w/prospects. All I can tell you is that I've come to terms with the fact that its impossible to predict who will hit, nobody can do it with reliability, but you can unearth traits that are frequently amongst those associated with busts, and at least put yourself in a position where you know which prospects share traits associated with the Pickett's and the Zach Wilson's and Trubisky's etc. That's basically the best I think anyone can do. At that point you have to decide for yourself who you think has more of the most alarming, commonly held traits, and who doesn't, and if they're similar amounts, which are you more concerned with. For me, Daniels scares the hell out of me more, so I don't want him. Simple as that. too many of the neg's I see from misses in the past. That being said, if, and that's a big if, but if, the processing is so next level as said, it could reduce the risk, but even there, I'm suspicious of such things, after the yo-yo of the processing tests like S2, which told us Young would be much better than stroud and clearly was wrong....and yet it helped find Purdy so......? There's no easy answer....I just view Maye the least long term risky.....

[Rungel]

29 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Challenge:

 

Predict the top 5 picks (with trades) for bragging rights.

 

1. Bears take Caleb

2. Commanders take Daniels

3. Vikings trade with Patriots and take Maye

4. Arizona takes MHJ

5. Giants trade with Chargers and take McCarthy

 

EDIT-

Contest Scoring System-

You get 1 point for correctly picking the first pick.

5 points for correctly picking the Commanders pick (it has to be the most points we’re on a Commanders forum).

3 points each for correctly picking the 3rd, 4th, and 5th draft picks.

Bonus of 2 points for every correctly predicted trade. (You must be correct on both the teams that trade and the player selected).

 

 

 

1. Bears take Caleb

2. Raiders trade with Commanders and take Daniels.

3. Patriots take Maye

4. Arizona takes MHJ

5. Vikings trade with Chargers and take McCarthy

Edited April 22 by Rungel

[FootballZombie]

31 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Predict the top 5 picks (with trades) for bragging rights.

 

1 Chi/Caleb

2 Wash/Daniels

3 NE/Maye

4 Ariz/Harrison

5 Minn/JJ

[The Consigliere]

36 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Challenge:

 

Predict the top 5 picks (with trades) for bragging rights.

 

1. Bears take Caleb

2. Commanders take Daniels

3. Vikings trade with Patriots and take Maye

4. Arizona takes MHJ

5. Giants trade with Chargers and take McCarthy

 

EDIT-

Contest Scoring System-

You get 1 point for correctly picking the first pick.

5 points for correctly picking the Commanders pick (it has to be the most points we’re on a Commanders forum).

3 points each for correctly picking the 3rd, 4th, and 5th draft picks.

Bonus of 2 points for every correctly predicted trade. (You must be correct on both the teams that trade and the player selected).

 

 

 

In a purely selfish sense, I'd be super bummed if the Vikes got Maye as I'm trying to steal him in dynasty and if Maye gets Jefferson and Addison, nobody is letting him fall in rookie drafts. Good for him if it happens though. 

[BayouBrave86]

5 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

1 Chi/Caleb

2 Wash/Daniels

3 NE/Maye

4 Ariz/Harrison

5 Minn/JJ

1. Caleb  all time bust right here

2. JD5 (great with Maye here too)

3. Maye

4. Nabers

5. Harrison Jr. 

[KDawg]

35 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

We need @KDawg back. The Penix narrative was his thing before it became cool 

I think our lack of maturity, quite frankly, is appalling. 

[Dah-Dee]

1 hour ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Challenge:

 

Predict the top 5 picks (with trades) for bragging rights.

 

1. Bears take Caleb

2. Commanders take Daniels

3. Vikings trade with Patriots and take Maye

4. Arizona takes MHJ

5. Giants trade with Chargers and take McCarthy

 

EDIT-

Contest Scoring System-

You get 1 point for correctly picking the first pick.

5 points for correctly picking the Commanders pick (it has to be the most points we’re on a Commanders forum).

3 points each for correctly picking the 3rd, 4th, and 5th draft picks.

Bonus of 2 points for every correctly predicted trade. (You must be correct on both the teams that trade and the player selected).

 

 

 

 

1. Bears take DC Williams

2. Commanders also take D.C. Williams, "because D.C. is right there in the name, ask Quinn," but while GMAP and Pope inexplicably 'sort out' the resulting commotion with rock/paper/scissors.....

3. Vikings trade up with NE and take Maye, but everybody thinks somebody else is turning in their card, again, so while they're sorting out the resulting commotion....

4. Commanders take Brock Purdy, after losing non-tie-breaker tie-breaker by choosing scissors 11 straight times, with GMAP declaring, "I saw him first!" - so during the commotion....

5. Bill Belichek appears at the podium in a puff of smoke and announces that he's picking Jayden Daniels in place of NE "because the Vikings will never get their **** together, and Kraft is a **** and wherever I'm coaching next year, or this year if Jerruh gets off his *** and fires McCarthy, I'm bringing JD5 with me. Suck it Brady!"

 

Waiting for crystal ball to recharge so I can provide more info. Stupid micro USB.

Edited April 22 by Dah-Dee

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Bifflog said:

 

I respect our resident film watchers, especially this time of year, but QB's are a whole different beast.  Science becomes indistinguishable from art once there are sufficiently unmanageable number of variables, and that is QB in a nutshell.  It is kind of ruining the draft here this year, which is lame.  Hopefully in a years time we'll be doing OK and some some faith will be renewed and we can do it up right, but it is gonna be kinda nuts picking 8 more times, several of them high, and there will be no ****s given.  Just endless re-litigating.

This is a good post. I actually cannot wait to just post highlights. Good things they did. All while praying and translating those highlights here to Kliff's system. So far we have been posting things they screw up to try to pump up our own evaluations. All of these guys do some things very well. And all have some flaws. I am just excited we are getting a new shiny face of the franchise in 3 days. That is going to need to be celebrated.

[clskinsfan]

Denver traded for Zach Wilson. Just saw this. Interesting landing spot for him. Payton may be able to revive that mans career. 

[formerly4skins]

48 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Challenge:

 

Predict the top 5 picks (with trades) for bragging rights

1. CHI - Caleb Williams

- this one is easy...undisputed 1st pick

 

2. WAS - Drake Maye

- toss-up...personally, i like Maye a bit more, but Daniels would be fine as well. I think both are great prospects.

 

3. NE - Jayden Daniels

- really, they just take whoever we dont between JD and DM

 

4. AZI - MHJr

-generational WR prospect IMO

 

5. LA - Nabers

-they lost their top two WRs this offseason...Nabers fits a need + the value of the pick

 

Maybe the Vagiants take JJ at 6...if not, i think MINN or LV trade up to pick him. I'd honestly be fine with him as our pick as well...I'm going to trust in Peters evaluation skills until he burns us.

 

And, can I say, as someone who is fine with whoever Peters likes best among DM, JD, or JJ...this thread has been a trip to keep up with 😆 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Idaho fan said:

1. Bears take Williams 

2.  Washington takes Daniels

3.  Patriots take Maye

4. Cardinals take Harrison Jr.

5. Vikings trade up for McCarthy

 

 

I second this. That's my bet as well.

 

However, if I was the Vikings, I'd just sit and wait because if they don't trade up for McCarthy, he very well could just fall into their laps. Maybe Denver or the Raiders trades up to jump them, but I'm not so sure they would go all the way to 5. 

 

The question would be the Giants.  Do the Giants take him at 6?  They could.  Or they could just take Nabers and be done with it.  

Edited April 22 by Voice_of_Reason

[ILikeBilly2]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Speaking of Lamar. They are playing the Ravens on the road this year.

 

If they take Daniels, am guessing that game goes prime time.

Great 😥 I'm pretty sure we played the ravens in RGIII's rookie season too.  Let me think... Yea, we did.  I remember crying that day as our rookie QB's career basically came to an end on one single play.  You are right, the game will be prime time.

[Dah-Dee]

32 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think our lack of maturity, quite frankly, is appalling. 

[ILikeBilly2]

1 hour ago, RWJ said:

 

1. Bears take Caleb

2. Commanders take Maye

3. Vikings take McCarthy

4. Arizona takes MHJ

5. Chargers take Alt

Edited April 22 by ILikeBilly2

[CommanderInTheRye]

By the way, I didn't see it mentioned here, but Jayden Daniels will be on First Take tomorrow and Stephen A. Smith vowed to "get to the bottom of this golfing controversy" fwiw.

 

If interested set your vcr accordingly.

 

Mine is broken it keeps blinking 12:00. I called the place where I bought it 25 years ago, but the kid who answered said it was a serious RTM issue and he told me he'd call back, but he never did.

[Idaho fan]

1 minute ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

By the way, I didn't see it mentioned here, but Jayden Daniels will be on First Take tomorrow and Stephen A. Smith vowed to "get to the bottom of this golfing controversy" fwiw.

 

If interested set your vcr accordingly.

 

Mine is broken it keeps blinking 12:00. I called the place where I bought it 25 years ago, but the kid who answered said it was a serious RTM issue and he told me he'd call back, but he never did.

Dude, time to upgrade to a Laser disc.  Supposed to be great.  Im saving up.

[The Consigliere]

24 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I smashed this same basic argument when we acquired Wentz. Dude was coming off a great QBR year but it is a virtually worthless metric when directly comparing QBs. They are all asked to do drastically different things. I don't care that Lamar had a great QBR, he could barely complete passes at the college level. He never had a season w/ more than 60% completion percentage. That is absurdly terrible.

 

Lamar was a poor passer coming out of college. Great player. Had the potential for great impact, but a poor passer. Full stop. Any other determination is particularly laughable.

 

 

End of the day, if you think you have an argument that a dude who was barely a first rounder and taken QB5 is the same level of prospect as a dude who is very likely going in the tippy top of the draft and scouts have rated higher than the better half of recent #1s then you need to re-evaluate your scouting method and stop incorporating what he has done once he entered the league. Lamar was not an elite prospect, or he would have been treated like one. He became one of the NFLs best players.

Oh you smashed it did you? Well, good news, as I think we all smashed the Wentz argument, or most anyway, except for the people that mattered :(.

 

As for Lamar, we just disagree, and you are going to throw out #'s that don't agree w/what you saw on the tape, and his admittedly alarming, at best accuracy #'s, otoh, the adot # posted above is nuts and would explain some of it, possibly most (an adot that high is naturally going to result in poor completion #'s). 

But we are as far apart as two people could be on this topic, so further discussion is pointless. 

[DiscoBob]

2 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

If interested set your vcr accordingly.

 

Mine is broken it keeps blinking 12:00. I called the place where I bought it 25 years ago, but the kid who answered said it was a serious RTM issue and he told me he'd call back, but he never did.

 

You bought the Beta didn't you?

[DogofWar1]

I am somewhere between "sweet mercy please let it end" and "this is such an exciting time I never want it to end" and it's a very strange feeling.

[Idaho fan]

Just now, DogofWar1 said:

I am somewhere between "sweet mercy please let it end" and "this is such an exciting time I never want it to end" and it's a very strange feeling.

Oddly enough it seems as this happens to have a lot in common with the way one feels once they are married.  Hmmm.