The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

I certainly don't know as much about football as NFL scouts or coaches but good lord. Some of those takes on Daniels and Maye just sound so dumb to me. Like they watch Maye and do nothing but focus on bad things he does and watch Daniels and do nothing but focus on the good things he does and everything else goes out the window.

[Skinsinparadise]

22 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

@Skinsinparadise you are right that there is a very real possibility we pick Jayden over Maye.  You've made that point clear.  What you haven't made, and will never make, is a convincing case that it isn't a completely aobcious and damning mistake.

 

There is no equivocation on this, it's a huge mistake.  It's taking RGIII over Andrew Luck, or Justin Fields over Trevor Lawrence.  I would immediately lose belief in this regime and this rebuild if they make this mistake, and have to spend my time waiting for it to fail and this group to be fired before we can try again.  And under no circumstances would I be willing to give Adam Peters another crack at QB.  You **** up like this and you are done.

 

I am not trying to convince people that we are taking Daniels.  I just argued back with those who think these reporters are dumb and being played.  When Keim a month or so back thought the lean was Maye, i posted that too.  I am interested in what they are going to do at this point more so than what I want them to do.  But I'd say reading the tea leaves, I still think Maye has a good shot to be taken.  I just don't get the sense that they think this is the no brainer only one size fits decision that you do.  But will see.  We don't know.

 

I don't have the energy to keep relitigating Maye-Daniels.  I have written an encyclopedia about both players.  And am a bit burned out doing it. We are on the same page about Maye > Daniels.  We aren't on the same page on two points:

 

A.  We as laymen scouts watching these guys games and on youtube can conquer the hardest thing to do in scouting and that is pick the right QB in the draft.  Feels a bit arrogant for me to have that level of assurance that I can conquer what most say isn't easily conquerable.  And I know you've gotten it wrong multiple times in the past.  And so have I.  Everyone has.  And its not only because these QBs didn't go to the right team.  It was that they simply weren't good.  

 

B. To me Maye and Daniels are different flavors.   Different ideas.  Different strengths and weaknesses.  Now my flavor is Maye.  But i am not running the offense.  Kingsbury is.  It doesn't feel insane to me that if they like the quick game, deep ball, and a QB with wheels that a defense has to account for that there is a chance that Daniels might fit that offense better.  Now I don't know that.  But as a theory it doesn't sound crazy.  It's like comparing pizza and burgers.  It's what do you want?

 

I'll be jazzed if they take either one.  I am firmly in the Maye camp.  And I've explained in probably 500 posts or so why.  But I am not one of the Daniels haters here.  I like him, too.  i think both have some bust potential in them for entirely different reasons but for me more red flags with Daniels.

 

Digesting the draft media and leaks from scouts and coaches -- many more agree with my point of view that they are both great prospects and its not some easy slam dunk no brainer decision.   

 

Some see it your way -- where its an easy decision but the irony of that is its divided with some saying its easy Daniels and some say its easy Maye.

 

As for you not being convinced, that's cool.  I am not trying to convince you Daniels > Maye or even Daniels = Maye.  I am a Maye guy.  So there isn't any disagreement.  My argument is I think it comes off a bit arrogant to say I know, there is just one answer.  All these coaches-personnel people who disagree are a bit dense because they should know there is just one answer too.  It comes off a bridge too far for me on the Maye train which am on.

Edited April 11 by Skinsinparadise

[cakmoney61]

12 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

This is a consequence of a loss in perspective.  All prospects carry risk, and their career outcomes will depend on staying healthy and ending up in good situations where their teams do the work of building a proper QB nursery.  But Williams and Maye are two of the best QB prospects that have come out in the last ten years.  They are good bets that any team who needs a QB should be thrilled to have access to.  Both of them are better prospects than Young and Stroud were. Far better than Richardson and anyone from 2022.  Way better than Wilson, Lance, Fields, and Jones were, and better than Tua and Herbert.  They are of the same caliber as prospects that Lawrence and Burrow were.  We are lucky to be drafting second in a two blue chip prospect class, in a year when we are QB shopping for a new regime.  It's an alignment of the stars scenario where genuine long term turnarounds can take place.

 

The problem for me is we might blow it and take a significantly inferior prospect in Daniels instead of Maye.  You'd think that the franchise which already went through the RGIII experience once wouldn't leap to do it again, but I don't have any confidence that we won't.  Making that kind of mistake after being gifted such a golden opportunity with Maye would make it feel like we deserve to stay in the gutter.

 

Respectfully, there is no loss of perspective.  I am only going by what I am hearing from posters of Extremeskins and the rest of the football universe outside of Extremeskins.  The majority of comments have been very negative against one or the other.  Very few have described them as 2a and 2b with both as elite prospects.

 

Time will tell if both, neither, or one is elite.  All I'm saying is that my confidence in either being elite is low.  I would love nothing more than for both to end up being franchise QBs for themselves and their families.

[Going Commando]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I certainly don't know as much about football as NFL scouts or coaches but good lord. Some of those takes on Daniels and Maye just sound so dumb to me. Like they watch Maye and do nothing but focus on bad things he does and watch Daniels and do nothing but focus on the good things he does and everything else goes out the window.

 

What gets me is they're just wrong about Daniels's processing.  They push that bull**** narrative about some magic VR machine teaching him how to read a defense and that's why he could finally make plays in his fifth year as a starter, and nevermind the fact that he's playing for a great coach now and had clean pockets to throw to a bunch of elite receivers where the reads were easy and he had all day to make them.

 

One of the scouts even recognizes the parallel to Fields, but doesn't seem to recognize that Fields was a bust, and that building an NFL offense around his running ability didn't work.

 

And then the big justification for Daniels over Maye is because he'll be ready to play year one?  The kid who took five years of college ball for the lightbulb to come on is a better bet to play well in year one than the kid who was one of the best players in the country his first year as a starter?

 

It's so dumb that it literally makes me angry that these morons have the jobs that they do.

[HTTRDynasty]

What’s interesting is if you ignore everything in that article but the opinions of the GMs, my read is that Maye comes out ahead at QB2. Ultimately, those are the opinions that matter most and should be weighted accordingly. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

3 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

What’s interesting is if you ignore everything in that article but the opinions of the GMs, my read is that Maye comes out ahead at QB2. Ultimately, those are the opinions that matter most and should be weighted accordingly. 

I was trying to read between the lines too. But Daniels scored a lot more points than Maye did, so not like it was all that close. I was leaning Maye, now I am back to being totally uncertain hah. I'll say my preference is for Maye purely on breakout age and upside. But I would love having Daniels too.

[BMagic]

22 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

What gets me is they're just wrong about Daniels's processing.  They push that bull**** narrative about some magic VR machine teaching him how to read a defense and that's why he could finally make plays in his fifth year as a starter, and nevermind the fact that he's playing for a great coach now and had clean pockets to throw to a bunch of elite receivers where the reads were easy and he had all day to make them.

 

One of the scouts even recognizes the parallel to Fields, but doesn't seem to recognize that Fields was a bust, and that building an NFL offense around his running ability didn't work.

 

And then the big justification for Daniels over Maye is because he'll be ready to play year one?  The kid who took five years of college ball for the lightbulb to come on is a better bet to play well in year one than the kid who was one of the best players in the country his first year as a starter?

 

It's so dumb that it literally makes me angry that these morons have the jobs that they do.

 

Projection is the toughest part of it all. Some focus on where the prospect is today when scouting is really about gauging the ceiling of the player and how likely the player is to reach it if you can surround him with the proper infrastructure.

 

 

 

 

I'm glad both guys are coming to the facility next week, so the staff can pick their brains to see how they analyze film and gauge their habits in relation to the mental aspect of the craft. Take them to dinner and see what type of food they prefer. That's a small factor, but all the nuances matter. Brady famously ate a super clean diet especially later in his career, yet it's hard to expect a 21-25 year old to be that advanced in that area.

 

Some super toolsy guys bust because they don't put in the time to hone their craft once they get the money and lifestyle. NIL is actually great for seeing how players respond to having endorsements and cash flowing in. That said, I don't have those types of concerns with either Maye or Daniels.

 

Edited April 11 by BMagic

[HTTRDynasty]

2 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I was trying to read between the lines too. But Daniels scored a lot more points than Maye did, so not like it was all that close. I was leaning Maye, now I am back to being totally uncertain hah. I'll say my preference is for Maye purely on breakout age and upside. But I would love having Daniels too.

The problem is first place votes were given 5 points and second place votes were given 3 point for some reason…?  Daniels received 3 first place votes, likely not from any GMs. Maye didn’t receive any - I think most people high on Maye still realize Williams is better. Whereas Daniels fans are so enamored by what makes him special that they are willing to place him above the almost unanimous QB1. 

 

There were also only 5 GMs (current and former) out of 17. If Standig had given GMs a higher weighting than the other titles, I am confident Maye vs. Daniels would have been much tighter and am guessing that Maye would have come out ahead. 

[mistertim]

I find it interesting that it seems almost nobody in these "scout / former coach / assistant coach / personnel executive, etc" analyses of Daniels brings up stuff like pressure to sack ratio, how often he runs as soon as he's pressured vs throwing, how few tight window and anticipation throws he made, especially on the second level between the numbers, how unsettled he seems when there's pressure in general.

 

They just talk about concerns with his frame. Which is a legitimate concern, but to me is a secondary concern and is more an issue along with the above problems. Because IMO the above problems mean that he's much more likely to run a lot when he gets to the NFL, which means more hits, which means more injury chance with that thin frame.

 

So maybe I'm just clueless and they know lots of stuff I don't; it's always possible. But those concerns also have analytics to back them up. So maybe they just really like Daniels and his electric running ability / wow plays, and are simply ignoring the other stuff because of confirmation bias.

[DogofWar1]

Coaches never beating the "always feel like they're on the hot seat and like the guy they think will let them keep their job one more year even if it's not necessarily the best long term guy" allegations.

[Skinsinparadise]

Standig just now

 

 

[jg77]

9 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

The problem is first place votes were given 5 points and second place votes were given 3 point for some reason…?  Daniels received 3 first place votes, likely not from any GMs. Maye didn’t receive any - I think most people high on Maye still realize Williams is better. Whereas Daniels fans are so enamored by what makes him special that they are willing to place him above the almost unanimous QB1. 

 

There were also only 5 GMs (current and former) out of 17. If Standig had given GMs a higher weighting than the other titles, I am confident Maye vs. Daniels would have been much tighter and am guessing that Maye would have come out ahead. 

A lot of mental gymnastics here. How about just accepting the scores that did happen?

[DogofWar1]

Also I know we can't exactly just throw names out willy nilly with the sourcing but context definitely matters.

 

Like are you talking to Bill Belichick or to Jim Zorn.  Both are former head coaches but one has a tinge more credibility on the subject.

[Skinsinparadise]

Sorry I missed that it was posted 😎

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, BMagic said:

 

 

 

I'm glad both guys are coming to the facility next week, so the staff can pick their brains to see how they analyze film and gauge their habits in relation to the mental aspect of the craft. Take them to dinner and see what type of food they prefer. That's a small factor, but all the nuances matter. Brady famously ate a super clean diet especially later in his career, yet it's hard to expect a 21-25 year old to be that advanced in that area.

 

Some super toolsy guys bust because they don't put in the time to hone their craft once they get the money and lifestyle. NIL is actually great for seeing how players respond to having endorsements and cash flowing in. That said, I don't have those types of concerns with either Maye or Daniels.

 

 

Keim among others think these visits are X factors.

 

While I've been I gather leading the charge that it could be Daniels they take at #2, reading tea leaves.  I also feel a bit bad about some are resigned that its happening. Not that taking Daniels makes me sad.  I am good with him.  But I prefer Maye.

 

But lol for those who prefer Maye and actually starting to believe Daniels has a good shot to be taken and are somewhat throwing in the towell that Maye won't be taken amd that depresses them.  i think Maye still has a legit shot.  The only guy it feels like is likely out of this is McCarthy.  But having said that, of course you never know.

 

If these guys are obsessed with processing -- per Quinn's point -- this is the best shot to get a feel for it.  Jay Gruden for example really played up this facet of having these guys in the room.  And all of that is going down next week.  So Maye too me has a decent shot still.  

Edited April 11 by Skinsinparadise

[HigSkin]

I keep going back to what Josh Harris said back in November.  IMO, I think this staff is going to be given some leway and time to build correctly.  I don't believe that includes "having" to draft a QB who is ready to start right away or has more game experience.

 

Philosophically, these statements make me think it's Maye.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/30/josh-harris-commanders-rebuild/

 

“We did as much as we could in six weeks,” Harris said. “But there’s a lot more work to do in the offseason. … We’re on a long journey.”

 

“It’s a long journey,” he added. “ … There’s no shortcuts to the top. There’s shortcuts to the middle. You want to be 8-8? I can get you there quickly — 8-8-1. You want to be great? There are no shortcuts.”

 

 

Edited April 11 by HigSkin

[Est.1974]

10 minutes ago, jg77 said:

A lot of mental gymnastics here. How about just accepting the scores that did happen?

That’s not how this game works

[Ghost of]

That section from Dane Brugler points out what I've said. Going into Penn State, McCarthy was a Heisman candidate. He injured his lower leg and had trouble throwing the rest of the regular season/Big 10 title game. Then people act like it's somehow out of bounds to consider him with the top ranks and then blame him for them running the ball when their head coach was suspended and his leg is preventing a solid throwing base for most attempts. The question is when these guys get into the whiteboard or film with teams---who is processing best? And who actually performed under pressure (from defenses and in big moments)?

 

It's odd to see people talk about Daniels processing---I don't get it. I mean, I get that he may have shown mastery at the line this year from what you can tell but this all sounds like scouts don't know anything different than us lay "experts."  

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

I keep going back to what Josh Harris said back in November.  IMO, I think this staff is going to be given some leway and time to build correctly.  I don't believe that includes "having" to draft a QB who is ready to start right away or has more game experience.

 

These statements make me think it's Maye.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/30/josh-harris-commanders-rebuild/

 

“We did as much as we could in six weeks,” Harris said. “But there’s a lot more work to do in the offseason. … We’re on a long journey.”

 

“It’s a long journey,” he added. “ … There’s no shortcuts to the top. There’s shortcuts to the middle. You want to be 8-8? I can get you there quickly — 8-8-1. You want to be great? There are no shortcuts.”

 

It's Maye if people accept its a fact not an opinion that Maye is the better bet longer term as to upside.  I personally believe that myself but i don't think my opinion is fact.  I just don't see any macro take of a college QB's chances to succeed in the NFL as a fact.  But if they do see it that way, yeah i do believe they'd take Maye.

 

I don't believe whomever they take they do it with the belief that the other guy will be the better long term QB.  Based on reading about these guys, I think zero chance for example if they take Daniels it will be with them internally having the disclaimer that they also believe Maye will be the better long term QB.  No way.  And vice versa.

 

Now they might end up wrong like many NFL teams are in selecting QBs but that's a different discussion as to the crap shoot element of picking QBs in the draft.  But I go zero worries that they take who they believe is the inferior QB for more short term success.

Edited April 11 by Skinsinparadise

[Conn]

14 minutes ago, jg77 said:

A lot of mental gymnastics here. How about just accepting the scores that did happen?

Your mind could use more gymnastics. Use it or lose it, they say 

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Keim among others think these visits are X factors.

 

While I've been I gather leading the charge that it could be Daniels they take at #2, reading tea leaves.  I also feel a bit bad about some are resigned that its happened. Not that taking Daniels makes me sad.  I am good with him.  But I prefer Maye.

 

But lol for those who prefer Maye and actually starting to believe Daniels has a good shot to be taken and are somewhat throwing in the towell that Maye won't be taken.  i think Maye still has a legit shot.

 

If these guys are obsessed with processing -- per Quinn's point -- this is the best shot to get a feel for it.  Jay Gruden for example really played up this facet of having these guys in the room.  And all of that is going down next week.  So Maye too me has a decent shot still.  

 

I'm not necessarily resigned to it, but I am starting to get a bit of a sinking feeling. I really do enjoy watching Daniels play, but the more I watch the more difficulty I have convincing myself that picking him would be a good move. There are just so many red flags for me that it seems other people are ignoring.

 

As I said above, it could be that I'm just clueless, that those aren't actually the red flags they seem, and that the people making the pick should be trusted as they have way more experience than I do. But at the same time, scouts and coaches also completely whiff on QBs plenty of times.

[HigSkin]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's Maye if people accept its a fact not an opinion that Maye is the better bet longer term as to upside.  I personally believe that myself but i don't think my opinion is fact.  But if they do see it that way, yeah i do believe they'd take Maye.

 

I don't believe whomever they take they do it with the belief that the other guy will be the better long term QB.  Based on reading about these guys, I think zero chance for example if they take Daniels it will be with them internally having the disclaimer that they also believe Maye will be the better long term QB.  No way.  And vice versa.

 

 

Sure, they would have to believe that in Maye.   

[Ghost of]

8 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I'm not necessarily resigned to it, but I am starting to get a bit of a sinking feeling. I really do enjoy watching Daniels play, but the more I watch the more difficulty I have convincing myself that picking him would be a good move. There are just so many red flags for me that it seems other people are ignoring.

 

As I said above, it could be that I'm just clueless, that those aren't actually the red flags they seem, and that the people making the pick should be trusted as they have way more experience than I do. But at the same time, scouts and coaches also completely whiff on QBs plenty of times.

Look at the quotes above. They all read like posts on Extremeskins. And when I say they read, I mean it reads like a thread on each QB. Daniels "processing" speed, McCarthy and Daniel Jones. It's bizarre. At least when I watch Thinking Football or someone similar, I get comments, terminology, etc. and it seems like they actually watched someone and took into account other context.

 

 

Edited April 11 by Ghost of

[fanman8825]

30 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

What gets me is they're just wrong about Daniels's processing.  They push that bull**** narrative about some magic VR machine teaching him how to read a defense and that's why he could finally make plays in his fifth year as a starter, and nevermind the fact that he's playing for a great coach now and had clean pockets to throw to a bunch of elite receivers where the reads were easy and he had all day to make them.

 

One of the scouts even recognizes the parallel to Fields, but doesn't seem to recognize that Fields was a bust, and that building an NFL offense around his running ability didn't work.

 

And then the big justification for Daniels over Maye is because he'll be ready to play year one?  The kid who took five years of college ball for the lightbulb to come on is a better bet to play well in year one than the kid who was one of the best players in the country his first year as a starter?

 

It's so dumb that it literally makes me angry that these morons have the jobs that they do.

Your so right on this. We have might not pick this high again for 10 years or so. This is a golden opportunity to get a Qb who can give you 12-15 years. I just don’t believe Daniels will give us anything close to that. 
In fact I would set the over under in him being a starter at 7 years. That would put him at 30 completing 7 years. With his frame and style of play it’s hard to believe he could have a long career. I have watched his games and many more cut ups of him, and he does not shy away from contact. 
He had a very good year and is very talented but these coaches want to win now and don’t care about 7 or 8 years down the road. 
Honestly this should be easy for Peters. He may have a chance of being here long term 15-20 years. He is only 44, and that’s how he should approach this with selecting a Qb. May was a much better Qb at this age than Daniels. Sure he had a slight down year but we all know why(new OC porous OL and less than stellar receivers)and it should not be held against him.Chances are good Dan Quinn will be gone in 4-7 years and many of his assistants gone in 2-3 years.

No need to overthink this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Anselmheifer]

48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

B. To me Maye and Daniels are different flavors.   Different ideas.  Different strengths and weaknesses.  Now my flavor is Maye.  But i am not running the offense.  Kingsbury is.  It doesn't feel insane to me that if they like the quick game, deep ball, and a QB with wheels that a defense has to account for that there is a chance that Daniels might fit that offense better.  Now I don't know that.  But as a theory it doesn't sound crazy.  It's like comparing pizza and burgers.  It's what do you want?

 

 

This is part of why I wanted Ben Johnson. The Ben Johnson and Drake Maye Marriage seemed like a perfect fit of scheme to skill set and I thought we'd take Maye and bring him along perfectly and have a stud QB in 3 years. I didn't care how much we won during those 3 years. 

Kingsbury has not ever been an elite NFL OC. And we are going to make the defining choice of the next 10 years for the franchise around a guy that might just get a better job offer and be gone in 2 years, or be fired in 2 or 3 years? 

I want us to take the top prospect with the highest upside. The 22yo with the prototype body and arm and athleticism, that we have seen translate over, and over, and over. And, while I do think Jayden might be really good, I think the risks with him are under-discussed. It's not just his frame. I really just do not see his, take off up the gut running style working at the NFL level for a guy with any frame. And even if it does translate, how much did being an elite runner help Fields last year? Lamar is a waaaaay better runner, albeit, maybe a lesser passer, and even on one of the best, most well run and stable franchises in the NFL, with the whole game plan designed around his talents, Lamae has made ONE AFC Championship Game. Not Super Bowl, Championship Game. There just isn't the precedent of any Jayden Daniels type players that have brought their team the kind of success that I think all of us really want. And then there is that Jayden is a 5th year senior throwing to two ELITE athleties and first round WR's, behind a rock solid OL. I don't think that if we swapped Jayden over to UNC and Drake over to LSU for the last 2 years, that we would be having a discussion about which one is better. At all. Like, at all, at all. 

 

But I do think Jayden can be good and there is too much smoke for me, and I think he is going to be the pick. And honestly, if we were picking at 3, I'd be ecstatic. So, I am trying to put my big boy pants on and be ready for the pick. But I am going to feel like it is a mistake.