The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[MartinC]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree.  But I obviously got no idea what they are thinking as to the why part of the reasoning.

 

Keim basically has been saying every coach he's talked to (and he seems to suggest its not a limited number) thinks Daniels is the better player over Maye and by a clear peg.  And I believe he might have talked to a FO guy or two but I don't recall for that for sure.  I do remember he said he talked to current coaches who aren't taking a QB including some offensive minds he respects. 

 

Standig has said a variation of the same thing but isn't as hardcore making the point, I don't recall him saying everyone or not.   Keim suggested in one of his segments that its been everyone. Both have referenced its not neck and neck between Daniels and Maye among the ones the have spoken to and that Daniels is considered a peg better versus this being super close.  Both have referenced that some of the concerns that some mock drafters have made about Maye have been echoed by some they have spoken to around the league.

 

Having said that, I don't get the impression that they are finding that guys in the league are down on Maye -- the point seems to be that they think Daniels is better and it is by a margin that isn't neck and neck.  But I don't get the vibe of much negative on Maye.  It comes off more than they are higher on Daniels than some on this thread are.

 

As for people here extraoplating why the coaches, etc feel that way.  Those reasons could be it.  But we don't know of course.  Keim hasn't really delved deep into the reasons aside from saying its everyone he's spoken to including offensive minds he respects.

 

For me personally, yeah I agree swing for the fences for the highest upside QB albiet I do see Daniels as a high upside QB, too.  Daniels actually ironically feels to me more boom-bust than Maye.  But I am gathering am higher on Daniels upside than some of the other people here who prefer Maye. I actually see Maye's floor higher than Daniels -- but see their upsides as similar with an edge to Maye.    I would take Maye personally.  But I admit if I had no concerns about Daniels' durability it woud be a tough choice for me.  Like Maye, Daniels has stuff to work on but I think he can likely do it but not sure if he can stay healthy.

I lean towards Maye - but would have no issues if we took Daniels.

 

My comment wasn't specifically about Maye having a higher ceiling (I think he might have - but I am neither qualified to make that judgement nor have spent the hours of time it would take to really come to a conclusion even if I was!) I was more commenting on the implied thought process of factoring in who is least likely to bust in making the pick - I doubt we are thinking 'which guy is teh safe pick here". We shoul dthinking "which guy has the best chance to be an All Pro" while factoring in things that might stand in the way of that being a realistic ceiling.

[MartinC]

22 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I think it would be a big unforced error to do that.  When you want a franchise QB, you pick one guy and you commit to developing him and making it work.  When you have two QB prospects, you have zero.

 

Can you think of a single example of a franchise QB who was drafted by his team with a hedge pick in the same class?  To cut to the chase, Andrew Luck is the only time a franchise QB was drafted in a 2 QB class in the seven round era, and Chandler Harnish was Mr Irrelevant and cut a month into his first season.  We don't need to reinvent the wheel to get a franchise QB, we need to follow the same formula that almost every franchise who successfully develops a QB from high draft pick to star player follows.  Pick one prospect, marry your front office and coaching staff to him, and then focus on developing him to the best of your ability.  Trying to do things differently at QB is what this franchise has always done, and it's why we always fail.

 

Adam Peters doesn't seem incompetent to me, I don't think he'd make such a basic mistake as trying to take two QBs in the same draft.  If he was foolish enough to saddle himself with a potential QB controversy in year one by sitting the fence with two prospects, he wouldn't have traded Sam Howell.

 

It's going way way back but the Cowboys took Troy Aikman 1st overall and THEN turned around and used their next year first round pick to take Steve Walsh in the 1st round of the supplemental draft that same year.

 

Aikman beat Walsh out and the Cowboys ending up flipping Walsh to the Saints for a 1st and 3rd so they lucked out in the end. 

 

To your point not the recommended approach - Aikman talks about how the pick of Walsh (who had been Jimmy Jones QB at U of Miami the previous year) really set back the development of the relationship Aikman had with Jones and the Cowboys coaching staff. 

[RandyHolt]

"Great" young (read: QB who looked great for 2 games) backups used to fetch a fortune from desperate GMs. I bet they still could but the fear of competition at the position slams that door shut.

[ntotoro]

44 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

Daniels was sacked 22 times in 2023.  Maye was sacked 29 times in 2023.  It seems bizarre to me to pretend that sacks are a major worry when considering Daniels.  22 sacks in 12 games in the SEC ain't bad.  It seems to me that he clearly was able to avoid both sacks and pressure.  If the number of times he is pressured seems low - that is a good thing.  Seems more like statistical manipulation by PFF to me than something to truly worry about.  Just my take.  Sacks don't worry me with either of these QBs, or McCarthy, for that matter.  Like DQ says "Keep the main thing the main thing."  I'm happy with whichever QB Peters and company decide on.  

 

The sacks don't worry me as much as the hits Daniels takes past the LoS. I mean... his frame will get abused more in the NFL than in the SEC, but even some of the hits he took past the LoS in college have been gnarly. Imagine those coming from NFL defenders. 

[jg77]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

This point here is central IMO for the whole discussion.  As I mentioned yesterday, I thought O'Sullivan from the QB school was excellent explaining what QBs he likes and why but also explaining why he could be wrong.  And he goes this centers on this point for all of these QBs that they have things that they need to do in the pros that they haven't in college.  And its a guess as to whether they do it or not at the next level.

 

Kurt Warner made a variation of the same point recently which is college QBs have to take a step up in the pros and its tough to guess who makes those steps and who doesn't. 

 

And yes I'll quote Arians again just for @wit33  where he goes he doesn't know with utmost confidence how good the college QBs will be in the pros because its impossible to tell from a distance how good they are at visual processing. Once he has them in the building he knows.

 

That QB school episode on this year's draft prospects was very good.

 

"If he's such a good QB then why doesn't he throw good" - regarding Drake Maye.

 

It's funny reading the posts in this thread because it's really just excuse after excuse why Drake has some glaring issues.

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

You play to win the game.

 

You do whatever you have to to develop QBs.  If they need to sit they sit if they don't they don't.

We’re picking #2

[Dah-Dee]

1 minute ago, Est.1974 said:

We’re picking #2

 

Correct!

 

[Skinsinparadise]

its a good watch, Breer talks about the buzz about the Qbs and hits the differences in Jayden-Drake in the context of their age

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, jg77 said:

 

That QB school episode on this year's draft prospects was very good.

 

"If he's such a good QB then why doesn't he throw good" - regarding Drake Maye.

 

It's funny reading the posts in this thread because it's really just excuse after excuse why Drake has some glaring issues.

 

He pumped up Maye, too.  Talked about wow plays in every game and gets why people are intrigued by his upside.  And he thinks his mechanical things can be fixed.

 

So it really depends on what you focus on.  Some swear by Maye.  And some don't.  Definitlely much more positive than negative on Maye.

 

I don't see excuse after excuse.   He's not a perfect prospect.  Neither is Daniels.  But its not like he sucked last year.  He was good.  He was great the year before that.  He is only 21.

 

As Breer mentioned in the segment I posted above, Daniels probably wouldn't have even been drafted if he came out when he's 21.

 

I think we've dwelled so much on this thread on what Daniels doesn't do well and Maye doesn't do well -- that it comes off like they both will suck in the NFL.  Personally, I think both have a good shot to be successful and we are lucky to be picking #2.

 

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

A few tidbits from ESPN...

 

 

Edited April 5 by CommanderInTheRye

[WashingtonRedWolves]

Packaging #36 and #40 for Fashanu would be the dream

[Est.1974]

Let’s be honest, there’s a pile of defensive Maye talk in here today. 
 

Daniels gets strongly linked. Next thing it’s all about sitting Maye 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

47 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I lean towards Maye - but would have no issues if we took Daniels.

 

My comment wasn't specifically about Maye having a higher ceiling (I think he might have - but I am neither qualified to make that judgement nor have spent the hours of time it would take to really come to a conclusion even if I was!) I was more commenting on the implied thought process of factoring in who is least likely to bust in making the pick - I doubt we are thinking 'which guy is teh safe pick here". We shoul dthinking "which guy has the best chance to be an All Pro" while factoring in things that might stand in the way of that being a realistic ceiling.

 

I agree with your logic.

 

I was just saying that I don't know why the coaches prefer Daniels.  Some have speculated on the reasons.  And those could be right.  But I don't know.  Keim hasn't elaborated aside from two points -- coaches he talked to pick Daniels and don't see it super close.  And some of the Matt Miller criticisms of Maye have been echoed by some of the people he talked too (comes off like he's talking about the same coaches).  That's it.

 

Some on the thread have come up for reasons for all this.  Coaches prefer the short term success if that's how they see the difference and personnel people would see it differently.  Or some stragglers here think Keim has lost his touch and is finally being played or has become a bit of a fan boy and is letting his preferences bias what he hears.  I've rejected the later point -- comes off silly to me -- its just killing the messenger.  But as the former point, I think its possible that personnel people prefer Maye and coaches like Daniels -- just saying I don't know, Keim isn't explaining.

 

And to defend Keim a little bit more he's not really emphaisizing these points but when he's asked he responds.  As I said in another post, I don't get the vibe at all that he thinks Maye can't be the pick here.  He's simply saying if he had to guess, he'd guess Daniels based on what these coaches think of the two QBs.  And that felt more pro Daniels listening to him than anything anti-Maye. 

[DogofWar1]

25 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

We’re picking #2

 

Okay and....?

 

The goal of picking a QB anywhere but especially at 2 is to get a guy who can carry your team for 15 years.

 

Most QBs don't have baller first years anyway, and a lot have only good 2nd years.  3rd year is where you often see numbers take off.

 

Joe Burrow was 13-5 td-int year one across 10 games before going 34-14 year 2 across 16.

 

Tua was 11-5 over 10 (9 starts) year 1, 16-10 over 13 (12 starts) year 2, and then 25-8 over 13 year 3.

 

Herbert balled out year 1 going 31-10 over 15.

 

Jordan Love of course sat 3 years in the Packers farm system.

 

2019 Murray's first year was 20-12 over 16.  Better 2nd year.

 

Goff wad 5-7 over 7 year one then took off year 2.

 

Dak did pretty well year 1.

 

Josh Allen had a pretty bad year 1, 10-12 over 12, a good not great year 2 at 20-9 over 16, then finally year 3 went crazy 37-10 over 16.

 

 

The tldr is QBs are all over the place on when they hit their stride.  So there's no point worrying about performance year 1 anyway because generally speaking there's pretty even distribution on when it "clicks" for a guy between years 1, 2, and 3.

 

Do whatever it is needs to be done to get the best long term performance out of them.  Odds are good if we sit them we won't miss much anyways.

[BMagic]

The NFL Draft Reddit certainly has strong takes in this debate as well. 

 

My main comp for Daniels remains Randall Cunningham, who did get to the NFC Championship Game with Prime Randy Moss and that squad scored tons of points. Cunningham also dealt with nagging injuries in his career.

[Skinsinparadise]

I don't find most of the Maye stuff defensive.

 

Best analogy that hits me is a restaurant review.

 

Lets say the food is good.  But the service needs to be better.

 

Some say the bad service rules the restaurant out.  Unacceptable.  Some say we can fix the service, we love the fact that the food is good. Most by the way are pro Maye.  Guys like Simms are the outliers not the norm.

 

The Maye people for the most part don't defend the service.  They acknowledge it.  But they don't find it defining.  That's not being defensive that's about how we look at everything holisitically.  And on that front to each their own.

 

You can do that with any prospect.   I love Ladd McConkey and I've pushed him for months.  It's not that he's without flaws.  He's smallish and he's had injuries.  I am willing ti accept the flaws and like the prospect regardless.

 

Daniels has flaws, too.  All these guys do. 

Edited April 5 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

4 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

The tldr is QBs are all over the place on when they hit their stride.  So there's no point worrying about performance year 1 anyway because generally speaking there's pretty even distribution on when it "clicks" for a guy between years 1, 2, and 3.

Does our approach in FA suggest to you that year 1 is a given potential write off to this ownership group ? With all due respect, that is rubbish. Forget all these historic stats from years gone.

 

The Texans are immediately relevant, immediately. That is the blue print.

 

We are picking #2 and not ****ing about with a project. 
 

In my opinion, of course.

[Number 44]

43 minutes ago, ntotoro said:

 

The sacks don't worry me as much as the hits Daniels takes past the LoS. I mean... his frame will get abused more in the NFL than in the SEC, but even some of the hits he took past the LoS in college have been gnarly. Imagine those coming from NFL defenders. 

Those gnarly looking hits almost always involve him being in the air.  Most injuries to knees, hips, legs, ankles, etc. occur when one or both feet are planted on the ground.  Other than helmut-to-helmut, those replays we see over and over aren't really nearly as concerning as some make them out to be.  Note - he missed zero games.  He did miss a quarter once while in concussion protocol for a helmut-to-helmut hit.  Was cleared and went back in.  All QBs have injury risk, of course.  That's why they keep adding more rules in an effort to protect them.  Fortunately for Daniels, he has shown he can take hits pretty well.  His frame is a concern, but thus far he has been OK.

[ntotoro]

Just now, Number 44 said:

Those gnarly looking hits almost always involve him being in the air.  Most injuries to knees, hips, legs, ankles, etc. occur when one or both feet are planted on the ground.  Other than helmut-to-helmut, those replays we see over and over aren't really nearly as concerning as some make them out to be.  Note - he missed zero games.  He did miss a quarter once while in concussion protocol for a helmut-to-helmut hit.  Was cleared and went back in.  All QBs have injury risk, of course.  That's why they keep adding more rules in an effort to protect them.  Fortunately for Daniels, he has shown he can take hits pretty well.  His frame is a concern, but thus far he has been OK.

 

Body in the air, brain is still moving inside that skull and NFL players are going to be a lot harder and faster. He won't stand up to those same hits at the NFL level.

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Best analogy that hits me is a restaurant review.

I really thought the steak/burger post was coming then 

[SkinsFTW]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

He's simply saying if he had to guess, he'd guess Daniels based on what these coaches think of the two QBs.  And that felt more pro Daniels listening to him than anything anti-Maye. 

 

That's the problem. He's talking to coaches. They don't make the picks here anymore. Why isn't he saying all the scouts prefer Daniels? Because they don't or they are doing their jobs and not talking.

 

Ron Rivera, naturally, would most definitely take Daniels though, or maybe even Nix.

[illone]

MJD thinks Penix will go to Gmen.

 

How dare you Maurice!

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/maurice-jones-drew-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-five-qbs-in-top-six-bills-nab-wr-after-stefon-diggs-trade

[Llevron]

 

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

There’s a Twitter report about out saying Peters made multiple in person visits to UNC, even sitting on their private practices, last season. Idk if its legit or not. 

 

Im telling you. The ONLY (good) reason to invite Daniels and not Maye to the facility is because he is already ready to go with Maye and doesnt need to see much else. If this is true about him going to UNC practices, then it just confirms it all for me. 

[Dah-Dee]

6 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

 

Im telling you. The ONLY (good) reason to invite Daniels and not Maye to the facility is because he is already ready to go with Maye and doesnt need to see much else. If this is true about him going to UNC practices, then it just confirms it all for me. 

 

Well, I could see them wanting to bring in Daniels so their own docs could run extensive tests on him, bone density and ct scans etc etc, because of the frame concerns.  They don't have those same concerns about Maye, and they *just* met with him before his pro day, so could be if the Daniels rumors are true, they're waiting for test results before deciding whether to bring Maye in for visit.

 

I still think it's been Maye all along and the Daniels stuff is lying season smoke.

Edited April 5 by Dah-Dee

[DogofWar1]

1 minute ago, Est.1974 said:

Does our approach in FA suggest to you that year 1 is a given potential write off to this ownership group ? With all due respect, that is rubbish. Forget all these historic stats from years gone.

 

The Texans are immediately relevant, immediately. That is the blue print.

 

We are picking #2 and not ****ing about with a project. 
 

In my opinion, of course.

 

I mean...

 

We have 33 million in cap space left after setting aside 10m for draftees.

 

That's not exactly "all in, drop a QB in and go for a ring" attitude.

 

We also have a lot of cap space in coming years.

 

I think the team is built to be flexible this year and in future years.  We have a good mix of 1 year, 2 year, and 3 year contract guys, so if we can succeed in whatever year our QB gets hot.

 

But no, I do not see a bunch of win now moves like trading for Aiyuk or trading for Snead or signing Smith at LT.

 

The team we have now is probably best classified as good not great.  It has some major upside with guys like Luvu and Wagner.

 

So a total write off?  No, but we aren't trying to "win now" either.  And I think that gives us flexibility to do whatever is best for the new QB and not worry about rushing him in.