The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I guess I have to be the voice of reason in here again. It’s blue. 

 

And the sun also isn't yellow.

 

But to keep this conversation on topic, it appears yellow because Jayden Daniels willed it to look yellow with hard work and JJ McCarthy did it with being a winner.

Edited March 24 by mistertim

[DogofWar1]

Colors don't actually exist.

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, DWinzit said:

Um, pretty sure Quinn is talking about Sam Hartman...

LOL.....I actually would be on board with a Rattler pick somewhere on day 3 if he's still around. 

[CommanderDOOM]

8 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Colors don't actually exist.

Water ain’t wet, it’s moist.

[mistertim]

9 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

LOL.....I actually would be on board with a Rattler pick somewhere on day 3 if he's still around. 

 

Forget that. There is absolutely no way that Rattler can compare to Hartman's gorgeous flowing locks  (Seriously, though. Why the hell did he feel the need to go to a hair stylist and put makeup on before the combine?)

 

[Skinsinparadise]

I am good with Daniels but prefer Maye.

 

Daniels as its been pointed out many times is more of a work in progress as to throwing off platform, making 2nd level throws and throwing with anticipation.

 

 

 

Edited March 24 by Skinsinparadise

[NOLA2DC]

1 hour ago, Dah-Dee said:

Here's a pretty interesting PFF article that uses "stable" metrics to help evaluate which prospects are most likely to do well in the NFL, based on the last two seasons' worth of college analytics.  

 

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-2024-nfl-drafts-quarterback-class-stable-metrics

How 2024 NFL Draft's quarterback class stacks up in stable metrics

This series focuses purely on the key stable metrics that translate more often than not from college to the NFL.

 

• This list includes all 15 quarterbacks from the PFF big board but does not provide any weight to projected draft capital, competition level or their overall ranking, though that context will often be provided.

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE FROM A CLEAN POCKET SINCE 2022

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE ON STRAIGHT DROPBACKS SINCE 2022

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE ON FIRST AND SECOND DOWNS SINCE 2022

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE WITH NO PLAY ACTION SINCE 2022

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE ON ATTEMPTS BEYOND THE STICKS SINCE 2022

TOP QBS IN LIMITING NEGATIVELY GRADED PLAYS SINCE 2022

 

 

• North Carolina’s Drake Maye leads the way: Maye is expected to be a top-two pick in this year’s NFL draft, boasting strong stable metrics.

• Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels avoid red flags across the stable metric board: Both players are ranked among the top four at their position, and they maintain that ranking across these stable metric categories.

 

CONSENSUS RANKING USING ALL STABLE METRICS SINCE 2022

Rank	Quarterback	PFF Big Board QB Rank
1	Drake Maye, North Carolina	2
2	Bo Nix, Oregon	4
3	Jayden Daniels, LSU	3
4	Jordan Travis, Florida State	9
5	Sam Hartman, Notre Dame	11
6	Caleb Williams, USC	1
7	Michael Penix Jr., Washington	5
8	J.J. McCarthy, Michigan	6
9	Michael Pratt, Tulane	7
10	Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland	12
11	Kedon Slovis, BYU	14
12	Joe Milton III, Tennessee	10
13	Spencer Rattler, South Carolina	8
14	Carter Bradley, South Alabama	13
15	Devin Leary, Kentucky	15

 

-------

 

Also, to help fill in at least one of the blind spots mentioned by PFF above (competition level):

 

Average Strength of Schedule rank 2022-23 per ESPN College Football Power Index:

 

Caleb Williams: 25

Drake Maye: 64

Jayden Daniels: 9.5

JJ McCarthy: 17.5

Bo Nix: 39

Michael Penix: 30.5

Where does this (strength of schedule)come from? Is this it? My problem with this assessment is that the top data performer (Maye) is not the top-rated QB.  If they were following the data, shouldn't Drake be their top ranked qb?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume

Edited March 24 by NOLA2DC

[MartinC]

4 minutes ago, NOLA2DC said:

Where does this (strength of schedule)come from? Is this it? My problem with this assessment is that the top data performer (Maye) is not the top-rated QB.  If they were following the data, shouldn't Drake be their top ranked qb?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume

I really wouldn’t worry about a data set that says Sam Hartman has more chance of being a successful NFL QB than Caleb Williams.

[RandyHolt]

JESUS HAROLD CHRIST ON A F***ING RUBBER CRUTCH

 

Name the movie. This thread needs some help.

 

Or, from another classic, Fletch.

[mistertim]

18 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am good with Daniels but prefer Maye.

 

Daniels as its been pointed out many times is more of a work in progress as to throwing off platform, making 2nd level throws and throwing with anticipation.

 

 

 

 

This is one of my big sticking points as well, but unfortunately you're absolutely wasting your breath. The Daniels people routinely ignore this entire argument and appear utterly immune to it.

[NOLA2DC]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

This is one of my big sticking points as well, but unfortunately you're absolutely wasting your breath. The Daniels people routinely ignore this entire argument and appear utterly immune to it.

You mean like how all the Maye people ignore the abundance of analysts calling him inconsistent🤣 How dare they insult Saint Drake

[mistertim]

10 minutes ago, NOLA2DC said:

You mean like how all the Maye people ignore the abundance of analysts calling him inconsistent🤣 How dare they insult Saint Drake

 

Who ignores it? I've mentioned several times that his footwork can get sloppy inconsistent, especially on short drops and shorter throws to the flat, etc. So has @Skinsinparadise

 

What we don't agree with is the narrative that Maye has overall horrible mechanics and footwork as if he can't drop back without tripping over himself. He usually has pretty good mechanics, but there's no doubting it can be inconsistent. And those inconsistencies lead to some inaccurate throws.

 

The question is, what's easier to clean up in the NFL? Lapses in footwork or inexperience in 2nd level tight window and anticipation throws that are going to be absolutely expected and the norm in the NFL. I'd argue the former.

Edited March 24 by mistertim

[bh32]

20 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Who ignores it? I've mentioned several times that his footwork can get sloppy inconsistent, especially on short drops and shorter throws to the flat, etc. So has @Skinsinparadise

 

What we don't agree with is the narrative that Maye has overall horrible mechanics and footwork as if he can't drop back without tripping over himself. He usually has pretty good mechanics, but there's no doubting it can be inconsistent. And those inconsistencies lead to some inaccurate throws.

 

The question is, what's easier to clean up in the NFL? Lapses in footwork or inexperience in 2nd level tight window and anticipation throws that are going to be absolutely expected and the norm in the NFL. I'd argue the former.

mechanics can be fixed,but you ain't fixing throwing with anticipation at this stage of JD's development..JD is who he is at this point being almost 24 years old and with the amount of games played..

[Skinsinparadise]

Mayes accurwcy is good but certainly inconsistent.

 

Daniels’ accuracy IMO has some mystery component to it because in the pros you heve to throw with anticipation versus waiting for guys to get open and then throw.

 

I agree with those who say there are differences between RG3 and Daniels. But one thing they have in common is neither threw with anticipation much in college.

 

RG3 never really got it down and it became part of the narrative as to why Kirk surpassed him.

 

Can Jayden do it in the pros? Sure. Why not. But its just as much of an unknown as to whether Maye cleans up his footwork 

Edited March 24 by Skinsinparadise

[bh32]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

Mayes accurwcy is good but certainly inconsistent.

 

Daniels sccurecy IMO has some mystery component to it becsuse in the pros you heve to throw with anticipation versus waiting for guys to get open and tgen throw.

 

I agree with those who ssy there sre differences between RG3 and Daniels. But one thing they hsve in common is neither threw with anticipation much in college.

 

RG3 never really got it down sbd it became part of the narrative as to why Kirk surpsssed him.

 

Can Jayden fo it in the pros? Sure. Why not. But its just as much of an unknown as to whether Maye cleans up his footwork 

Just don't see it happening with JD..Coverage is a lot tighter in the NFL and JD already likes to bail on a pass play in college,It will only get worse in the NFL.His development is about done at this point at 24 years old.

[mistertim]

Just now, bh32 said:

Just don't see it happening with JD..Coverage is a lot tighter in the NFL and JD already likes to bail on a pass play in college,It will only get worse in the NFL.His development is about done at this point at 24 years old.

 

I think it's premature to say it couldn't happen. It's just not an easy thing to develop, especially when you're used to mostly waiting until guys are open and you have receivers that pretty consistently get very open. It's always possible, but as SiP noted, that was one of RG3s big issues is that he rarely had to do it in college and he never mastered it in the NFL.

 

If Daniels CAN master it, he could be elite. If not (and especially if he continues his trend of usually tucking and running when pressured instead of buying time and getting ball to guys downfield) he'll probably either be a JAG or often injured.

[Skinsinparadise]

29 minutes ago, bh32 said:

Just don't see it happening with JD..Coverage is a lot tighter in the NFL and JD already likes to bail on a pass play in college,It will only get worse in the NFL.His development is about done at this point at 24 years old.

Dont know. But it is a wildcard.

 

26 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I think it's premature to say it couldn't happen. It's just not an easy thing to develop, especially when you're used to mostly waiting until guys are open and you have receivers that pretty consistently get very open. It's always possible, but as SiP noted, that was one of RG3s big issues is that he rarely had to do it in college and he never mastered it in the NFL.

 

If Daniels CAN master it, he could be elite. If not (and especially if he continues his trend of usually tucking and running when pressured instead of buying time and getting ball to guys downfield) he'll probably either be a JAG or often injured.

Yeah I think if Daniels masters 4 things he will be special

A, Throwing off platform 

B. Thowing with anticipation 

C. Making 2nd level thows in between the numbers 

[zCommander]

3 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

It's neither. It has no inherent color. Blue and purple are just scattered more than other colors. 

 

I feel like we had this conversation before. I just wanted to bring a different color to the conversation lol  

 

"If we judge by the most prominent color, the sky is violet. But the sky appears blue due to the limitations of our eyes. Our sensitivity to light decreases as we reach the shortest wavelengths of the visible spectrum. The violet is there, but our eyes detect it only weakly. What we see is blue—present in large quantities and easily detected by our eyes."

 

But to tie this back to Dan Quinn on his taking a QB in the draft... he is seeing violet while others (reporters, analysts and such) are seeing blue.  

[mistertim]

56 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Yeah I think if Daniels masters 4 things he will be special

A, Throwing off platform 

B. Thowing with anticipation 

C. Making 2nd level thows in between the numbers 

 

Not to be a smartass, but that's 3.   

 

What's the 4th? Or did you mean 3?

[FootballZombie]

6 hours ago, mistertim said:

Jesus ****ing Christ on a hoverboard. How you have seemingly missed pretty much everything that's been discussed and explained on here about issues with Daniels (especially his incredibly questionable performance under pressure) is absolutely beyond me and, to be frank, is borderline impressive because you have to try to be that obtuse.

 

Nah, some peeps just hyper-focus on a few things and miss the forest thru the trees.

Under pressure dude put up a 127 passer rating, had a monster big-time throw rate, threw no INTs vs 5 TDs and had an 82 Offensive grade from PFF.

 

Even if you wanna drag that kind of performance down due to easier passes or surrounding talent or frankly similarly bad P2S rates, it still does not reach the level of struggle showcased by other top 3 prospects under fire.

 

The question is less about whether he was good under pressure and more about if a specific poster wants to give him credit for it.

If you don't want to and choose to rationalize it away, you do you.

 

6 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

The decision-making comment, I’m assuming, you are basing off of his completion percentage, but that fails to take into account that he was given a much simpler menu of options to work with. 

 

Decision making is more nebulous to me and is a lot of things combined.

When to send a pass, when not to, keeping the ball outta harms way, situational football, panicking under pressure, protecting your pass catcher, avoiding the deadly sins of QB play... stuff like that.

 

There are a lot associated stats that show a window into your choices, like turnover rate and completion percentage, but there is no one encompassing stat or metric that defines it in my eyes. Its just something you gotta get a feel yourself when watching a prospect. Honestly, everyone's pull in this department is gonna be a little different.

 

 

If your reasoning is that that JD was simply given a easier job, I'd agree with it. He had some horses that could get open more often. But that does nothing to change the narrative that he has consistently displayed better judgement and it certainly does not allow me to push forward a reality where he isnt the better decision maker. I gotta go with whats there.

 

And just to be 100% clear I'm am specifically focusing on passing decisions not running ones. (as JD struggles a lot there) Clearly I've shown that I got beef w/ that.

[Jumbo]

3 hours ago, NOLA2DC said:

You mean like how all the Maye people ignore the abundance of analysts calling him inconsistent🤣 How dare they insult Saint Drake

 

Enough of your antics. I've warned you about it. I almost lit into you again for your recent "mob mentality" remark and that was hardly the first time. This one I quoted repeats the same kind of inaccurate and trollish claims I have already called you out on.

 

I kept waiting to see if you'd continue to frequently be half troll and half asshat or maybe settle down.

 

My take is you think what you're doing with your rebukes is of the same nature as to the posts you're responding to, but you're wrong.

 

You can take your idea of engagement elsewhere. Maybe a Saints board. You can enjoy Chase Young's rebirth.

 

There's one of two others who might want to pay attention to this post. Make sure you're not talking out your ass in a demeaning manner when characterizing the conversations occuring with people of different viewpoints.  

 

 

[DogofWar1]

Jayden did himself a disservice by skipping the combine, because a fair bit of these debates boil down to Jayden's foundational problems (ie his weight, arm strength) vs. Maye's inconsistencies.

 

Maye can't show improvements in consistency until he takes the field.  But Jayden can address those foundational problem concerns via combine and pro day.  He skipped the combine.  Now he's gotta show he's the total package on the pro day, no games or mulligans.

[CommanderInTheRye]

4 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

This is one of my big sticking points as well, but unfortunately you're absolutely wasting your breath. The Daniels people routinely ignore this entire argument and appear utterly immune to it.

 

"...The Daniels people routinely ignore this entire argument and appear utterly immune to it."

 

Not all of us do, but your point is well taken.

 

I think their are some, on both sides of the argument, who let their emotions influence their reason and judgement; not out of malice or disrespect (though it may seem that way to opposing believers), but because they are committed to their position,  and can't understand why others obstinately refuse to accept the same position that they do.

 

The one thing we can all agree on, I think, is that the draft really can't get here fast enough. lol

 

 

Edited March 24 by CommanderInTheRye

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

"...The Daniels people routinely ignore this entire argument and appear utterly immune to it."

 

Not all of us do, but your point is well taken.

 

Ok, you're right. I probably shouldn't have painted with such a broad brush. The correct statement would be "some Daniels people routinely ignore..."

[SkinsGuy]

What it comes down to is if Washington does select a QB at #2, whether it is Maye or Daniels, they will be getting an excellent prospect, but one that has had problems in their game and isn't a home run hit coming out of the gate. 

 

I like what this team has done in the offseason so far, and it has given me confidence that they will make a good choice at pick #2. Whether it's pick a QB, somebody else, or trade down. 

Edited March 24 by SkinsGuy