The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

• Sydney Ellen Wade: [in Beth's apartment] Why did I have to kiss him?
• Beth Wade: You kissed him? You didn't tell me that. Where did you kiss him?
• Sydney Ellen Wade: On the mouth.
• Beth Wade: Where in the White House?
• Sydney Ellen Wade: The dish room.
• Beth Wade: The dish room?
• Sydney Ellen Wade: The... China Room.
• Beth Wade: And then what happened?
• Sydney Ellen Wade: He had to go and attack Libya.
• Beth Wade: It's always something.
• Sydney Ellen Wade: Yeah... I gotta nip this in the bud. This has catastrophe written all over it.
• Beth Wade: In what language? Sydney, the man is the leader of the free world. He's brilliant, funny, handsome. He's an above-average dancer. Isn't it possible our standards are just a tad high?

You sir are a scholar and a gentleman.

 

- ”he had to go and attack Libya.” 
- “it’s always something.”

 

I had forgotten that part.  Made me chuckle.  
 

Wonderful movie. 
 

I came rather close on the quote having not seen the movie probably since 2000.  

[DogofWar1]

7 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

The thing that stands out to me on this, aside from the very low Daniels %, is wow, Penix never got pushed off his spot.

 

Penix - 51 times

Caleb - 120 times

Nix - 66 times

McCarthy - 63 times

Maye - 125 times

Daniels - 90 times

 

Also helps to show how rough Williams and Maye had it.  Probably a much different conversation we're having if they got to stand on their spot an extra 50 times throughout the season.

[actorguy1]

I am following Keim's lead. This is a very deliberate FO who wants to see the whole picture before making a final decision. I believe they will not decide who they are taking are #2 until after the Top 30 visits.

[Die Hard]

4 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

You’re alive with all your bits after telling your wife what she was wearing was “fine?”

 

You have a very understanding wife.  

I dunno… it can work.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

There is no such thing.  The bust rate of top 5 QBs is over 50%.  
 

You take the best prospect you think who has the highest ceiling.  And then you make ritual sacrifices to the football gods, hope and pray you’re right.  

and its also worth mentioning, late high risers like JJ, do any of them ever hit? It's hard to find guys that hit with that tag. Pickett, Lance, Danny Nickels and Haskens, Trubisky, Wentz sort of (He wasn't a late high riser, but I don't recall him being thought a stud 12 months earlier), Bortles, feels like nearly all guys that do the JJ climb (or even Jayden, although to be fair to him, it was a climb that started in August/September, not in December-January-February) bust big time. It's hard to think of late risers that hit big. Richardson wasn't a late riser, but he was more in the 7-14 zone, and then in the late winter/spring of '23 he climbed into top 3 consideration, beyond him, I can't think of any that really hit, I mean maybe Mahomes, but Mahomes was rising for a long time, everyone knew the ceiling, people were just terrified of the floor and the history with QB's from his kinda type of system. 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

how rough Williams and Maye had it.

Both of their OL's were utter garbage. And that might be a nice way to describe them. 

[Koolblue13]

Bayou Bob vs Bigger Howell vs Wish Mahomes

 

It's a can't miss!

 

6 QBs. 1 will probably be great. One will be a middling starter and have a decent career. One or two, career back ups. The others out of the league in 5.

 

Total crap shoot. I like high floors, because ceilings are impossible to predict with any real accuracy, unless they have glaring weaknesses like a Redacted type of turkey launcher arm.

 

I have no opinion on who will be good or bad, but the Maye floor seems the safest. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

7 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

and its also worth mentioning, late high risers like JJ, do any of them ever hit? I

There’s no such thing as a late riser in the GM community.  
 

EDIT: to be clear I’m agreeing with you and “yes and-ing” to say the late risers never hit because there’s no such thing as a late riser in the NFL.
 

That “flying up the draft boards” is exclusive to the draftnik media draft boards as the media folks determine narratives to fill time between February and April and catch up on film they didn’t have access to.

 

Inside the NFL community, nobody is flying up anything. The film is all there by early Jan, all the area scouts have their reports in by end of January, the initial evaluations are all completed by February, and then teams slot players pending the completion of the process to include the combine, pro days and on-site visits.

 

Mel Kiper’s hairdo has to find something to talk about when there literally is nothing to talk about and nobody who can make a decision will tell anybody what they are thinking.  

 

All of this “late risers” and “flying up draft board” and all that stuff is purely a media invention. Which signifies nothing.  (Thank you William Shakespeare for the ending of that. )

Edited March 16 by Voice_of_Reason

[ThatNFLChick]

Kurt Warner breaks down Maye (he seems to agree with Orlovsky, Simms, and many others that he needs to sit)

 

 

Edited March 16 by ThatNFLChick

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

I watched a show with DJ this morning and he does think we might be trading back. I just dont see it. You signed a massive amount of vets to fill the roster and you are going to go into the season with Mariota as your starter after doing that?

Trade up or trade out, been my take for the majority of time. 
 

I honestly see the least overall value for us is by sitting at #2, however I know I’m on an island with that 

[Koolblue13]

[Llevron]

1 hour ago, gooseneck said:

I haven't been on this topic for a while.  Is everything resolved yet?

Yes no more issues 

[DiscoBob]

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

Hide your crab legs Clevelanders

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

Kurt Warner breaks down Maye (he seems to agree with Orlovsky, Simms, and many others that he needs to sit)

 

 

I actually think sitting a year would help him a lot myself. But that just isnt the way it works anymore with the second overall pick. If Maye is the pick he is gonna play. 

[Llevron]

@Koolblue13 Wish Mahomes is your best one yet lol

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, DiscoBob said:

 

Hide your crab legs Clevelanders

[Skinsinparadise]

23 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

I am following Keim's lead. This is a very deliberate FO who wants to see the whole picture before making a final decision. I believe they will not decide who they are taking are #2 until after the Top 30 visits.

 

Agree.  Keim also says who they pick, his mind can change on that by the day.  He doesn't think they've made up their mind.  He thinks their (Maye-Daniels) team vists will be big. 

Edited March 16 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, DiscoBob said:

 

Hide your crab legs Clevelanders

Winston and Watson? Imagine being a woman in that city. Yikes.

[Jumbo]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

I actually think sitting a year would help him a lot myself. But that just isnt the way it works anymore with the second overall pick. If Maye is the pick he is gonna play. 

 

I think him sitting is a year is a reasonable approach, but as a need it's still debatable, and the circumstances around it re: "the entire team structure/plan" have to be of a certain nature on a variety of fronts to make it the best call.

[sinews]

1 hour ago, gooseneck said:

I haven't been on this topic for a while.  Is everything resolved yet?

This goes for pretty much everything in this world:

[Number 44]

27 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I came rather close on the quote having not seen the movie probably since 2000.  

You sure did.  Well done.

[Koolblue13]

I think I'd be better if I could sit for a year, too.

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Skins199021 said:

Seems kind of crazy that people would actually be insanely upset if we drafted Daniels over Maye.

 

My opinion… I take Daniels because he has higher upside and played better competition, but I wouldn’t find it to be some great travesty if they took Maye instead 

I think the core reason at least with me, is Daniels has a lot of warning flares that relate to high bust rate. Didn't break out big time until his 5th year, throws late to wide open mega elite WR's instead of throwing open receivers with anticipation, pressure to sack rate was absurdly bad until this past season when it was just poor/below average. 

 

When you look at the two, most of the great things Daniels has as assets aren't terribly critical to future success, and most of the things he either doesn't do, or doesn't do well, are.

 

With Maye it's the polar opposite. The only quibble with Maye is mechanics, and that like Daniels, his pressure to sack rate isn't close to Penix elite level there, he's averageish to below average, but how much of that is a terrible OL, and terrible weapons that weren't open and he had to wait on?

 

That's the issue, at least to me.

 

I can find lots of reasons that Daniels will fail, or at least never be great, and most of the ways that made Daniels great this past year, don't really translate to me beyond mechanics, and steady improvement over time (he clearly works). For Maye, its almost impossible for me to see him failing. I can see him not figuring out how to clean up his feet and mechanics that limits him to average. But bust? I simply can't see it period unless there's hidden mental make up concerns (and it sounds like the polar opposite).

 

We've seen these kinds of prospects from time to time, and guys with similar limitations to Daniels in my experience, just fail more often than guys with Maye's. Maye sounds like a cross between Marino/Stafford arm talent, but with Joe Montana mobility (not elite, but above aveage to good), guys with that profile hit, A LOT. Guys with Daniels? Almost never. He scares the ---- out of me. People keep seeing poor man's Lamar, but I don't know, Lamar was an elite prospect his whole career in college, he didnt take five years like Daniels to get that tag (and he was ALWAYS a worse thrower than Daniels, which makes it even worse). 

 

That's why some of us would be insanely upset, or at least me. Daniels disappointing, or busting, or just never putting it together entirely is very easy to see happening. I don't think it will, but I could totally see it happening, and stalling out as a prospect is easy to see too. For Maye, I think we're already playing with a guy with enough QB talent to stick in the league as a Dalton at worst. And Dalton started for more than half a decade. But I think Maye's ceiling is top 4-8 guy, and I don't think Daniels ceiling is higher than 8-14. 

 

I guess that explains my perspective anyway and I why I would be alright. I also wouldn't trust the F.O. after this because I'd view it as a base level, stupid mistake in evaluation.

 

Ignore the youth and early huge breakout difference there.

Ignore the throwing with anticipation issue, and the lack of throws into the middle of the field.

Ignore the deeply alarming pressure to sack ratio and the evidence that taking sacks heavily, is a carryover trait and the best weapon defenses can use.

Ignore the fact that he runs, rather than throws to open WR's if his first target isn't open (and sometimes when they are)

Ignore the significance of high end traits that showed up early and are totally translatable.

Ignore the differences between the surrounding cats.

Ignore the fact that it took 5 years to play like Maye did in his first. 

 

Fixate on athleticism/running/Lamar hipster traits when guys like Lamar and Hurts and Fields etc haven't won ---- and have had better talent around them than Mahomes (not Fields)

Fixate on flashy deep ball throwing. 

Fixate on production that may be more tied to talent around them than his own.

Fixate on team performance and winning and SEC, instead of the reality that great QB's come from anywhere, and few are actually winning anyway. 

Fixate on largely non-relevant analytics stats. 

Fixate on mechanics/footwork concerns which are nebulous and explicable, and don't matter nearly as much as other issues (and are teachable).

 

For me it would scare me that they don't get it. I get that that sounds like hubris, like I know whose better and whose gonna hit, obviously I don't, but like a lot of us, I'm good at hitting on guys I think will be busts, and Daniels has a lot more "bust" scent to him for me than Maye. I think Maye's skill set means he sticks, the question is "how good will he be," not whether he turns into a pumpkin Zach Wilson style. Whereas I think there's some Daniels is another Wilson/Lance level bust, I think there's some risk there, I don't think it will happen, but where with Maye, I put the chances of pumpkin style bust at probably 10-20%, I put it with Daniels at like 25-40%. Its not that I'm sure I'm right in terms of who will be elite, I have no idea if Im right that even either of them will be, its that I'm very confident if one busts, the bust is gonna be Daniels. And for me, that floor of competent starter, mixed with higher level elite prospect tools that matter for QB's, make Maye an easy as hell choice, whereas Daniels is the "cute" looking at the wrong things (to me) choice, which would illustrate how and why Peters has basically never drafted and developed a franchise guy in New England, Denver, or SF (Purdy is a great hit, suggesting he can find diamonds in the rough, but I think people are pretty skeptical that he's really an elite level franchise guy) beyond it just being hard, which of course it is.

 

I trust and believe, either he gets all this, or there is some tidbit of information he knows, that we don't, which would be why he went Daniels if he did. I'm just really hoping he doesnt because if we do get Daniels and say New England or NYG gets Maye, I fully expect NE/NYG whomever, to make us look pretty foolish, yet again, when drafting and developing QB. 

Edited March 16 by The Consigliere

[Koolblue13]

Phew, that's a lot of words.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

He watched the three worst games from last year and didnt even touch Maye's 2022 tape. That is where I was as well. Until I spent some time watching him play in 2022. 

Its funny how they do that. Focusing exclusively on last season, and no others is the height of idiocy. Its how you let Vince Wilfork and Dan Marino's fall to the end of round 1 and draft Ryan Pickett's.