The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[HTTRDynasty]

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-2024-nfl-drafts-quarterback-class-stable-metrics

 

With the NFL offseason officially underway, so is 2024 NFL Draft season. Plenty of fantasy football general managers are building out their rookie draft boards for dynasty purposes.

 

Looking at how each position stacks up against one another from an analytics standpoint is just one of the many tools to consider during the evaluation process. This series focuses purely on the key stable metrics that translate more often than not from college to the NFL. It's a way for dynasty managers, and fantasy managers, in general, to get familiar with this year’s rookie class.

 

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE FROM A CLEAN POCKET SINCE 2022

Quarterback	Clean-Pocket Grade	Clean Dropbacks
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame	94.0	582
Drake Maye, North Carolina	93.9	800
Jordan Travis, Florida State	93.3	565
Caleb Williams, USC	93.0	727
Michael Penix Jr., Washington	92.8	915
Jayden Daniels, LSU	92.2	692
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland	91.1	685
Bo Nix, Oregon	90.9	804
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan	90.5	541
Kedon Slovis, BYU	87.7	423
Michael Pratt, Tulane	86.9	540
Devin Leary, Kentucky	86.8	451
Carter Bradley, South Alabama	86.3	637
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina	84.9	644
Joe Milton III, Tennessee	79.5	374

 

 

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE ON STRAIGHT DROPBACKS SINCE 2022

Quarterback	Straight-Dropback Grade	Straight Dropbacks
Drake Maye, North Carolina	92.7	924
Michael Penix Jr., Washington	91.6	1,048
Jayden Daniels, LSU	90.6	744
Bo Nix, Oregon	90.6	771
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame	90.4	762
Jordan Travis, Florida State	90.4	600
Caleb Williams, USC	89.3	802
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan	82.9	584
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland	79.9	734
Michael Pratt, Tulane	79.7	656
Joe Milton III, Tennessee	77.1	438
Kedon Slovis, BYU	76.6	534
Devin Leary, Kentucky	73.9	560
Carter Bradley, South Alabama	72.5	772
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina	68.9	762

 

 

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE ON FIRST AND SECOND DOWNS SINCE 2022

Quarterback	First/Second-Down Grade	First/Second-Down Dropbacks
Michael Penix Jr., Washington	90.3	940
Jordan Travis, Florida State	90.0	581
Drake Maye, North Carolina	89.9	874
Bo Nix, Oregon	89.6	763
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame	89.5	648
Jayden Daniels, LSU	86.6	751
Caleb Williams, USC	83.6	838
Joe Milton III, Tennessee	83.1	365
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan	80.7	547
Michael Pratt, Tulane	79.7	564
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland	78.9	721
Kedon Slovis, BYU	76.2	466
Devin Leary, Kentucky	71.3	460
Carter Bradley, South Alabama	70.5	635
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina	68.3	716

 

 

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE WITH NO PLAY ACTION SINCE 2022

Quarterback	Non-Play Action Grade	Non-Play Action Dropbacks
Drake Maye, North Carolina	91.4	878
Caleb Williams, USC	90.7	648
Bo Nix, Oregon	90.5	657
Jayden Daniels, LSU	90.3	785
Jordan Travis, Florida State	85.8	540
Michael Penix Jr., Washington	84.0	837
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame	83.0	599
Michael Pratt, Tulane	77.6	549
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan	75.8	582
Kedon Slovis, BYU	74.6	451
Carter Bradley, South Alabama	73.5	593
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland	70.2	696
Joe Milton III, Tennessee	65.7	266
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina	65.0	755
Devin Leary, Kentucky	64.9	432

 

 

TOP QBS IN PFF PASSING GRADE ON ATTEMPTS BEYOND THE STICKS SINCE 2022

Quarterback	Beyond-The-Sticks Grade	Beyond-The-Sticks Attempts
Drake Maye, North Carolina	96.2	467
Caleb Williams, USC	94.8	449
Jayden Daniels, LSU	94.1	342
Bo Nix, Oregon	94.1	351
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame	93.7	435
Michael Penix Jr., Washington	93.4	559
Jordan Travis, Florida State	92.5	387
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan	92.4	345
Michael Pratt, Tulane	91.8	308
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland	91.1	353
Kedon Slovis, BYU	86.4	258
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina	85.8	291
Carter Bradley, South Alabama	84.1	330
Devin Leary, Kentucky	81.2	283
Joe Milton III, Tennessee	79.1	213

 

 

TOP QBS IN LIMITING NEGATIVELY GRADED PLAYS SINCE 2022

Quarterback	Percentage of Negatively Graded Plays	Total Snaps
Bo Nix, Oregon	5.54%	1,824
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan	6.85%	1,709
Jayden Daniels, LSU	7.37%	1,602
Michael Pratt, Tulane	7.49%	1,576
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina	8.17%	1,615
Joe Milton III, Tennessee	8.28%	1,002
Jordan Travis, Florida State	8.44%	1,470
Drake Maye, North Carolina	8.49%	2,002
Kedon Slovis, BYU	9.00%	1,256
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame	9.28%	1,605
Carter Bradley, South Alabama	9.29%	1,669
Caleb Williams, USC	10.23%	1,798
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland	10.35%	1,584
Michael Penix Jr., Washington	10.44%	1,983
Devin Leary, Kentucky	10.90%	1,128

 

 

CONSENSUS RANKING USING ALL STABLE METRICS SINCE 2022

Rank	Quarterback	PFF Big Board QB Rank
1	Drake Maye, North Carolina	2
2	Bo Nix, Oregon	4
3	Jayden Daniels, LSU	3
4	Jordan Travis, Florida State	9
5	Sam Hartman, Notre Dame	11
6	Caleb Williams, USC	1
7	Michael Penix Jr., Washington	5
8	J.J. McCarthy, Michigan	6
9	Michael Pratt, Tulane	7
10	Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland	12
11	Kedon Slovis, BYU	14
12	Joe Milton III, Tennessee	10
13	Spencer Rattler, South Carolina	8
14	Carter Bradley, South Alabama	13
15	Devin Leary, Kentucky	15

---

CONTEXT

North Carolina’s Drake Maye leads the group after finishing with a top-three mark in five of six stable metric categories, with his lowest showing coming in negatively graded plays (eighth). Maye is set to be one of the first two quarterbacks, and likely one of the top two picks, selected in this year’s draft, and there are no signs here that he isn’t worthy of those expectations.

 

Caleb Williams is the top quarterback on the PFF big board but does fall a little in these stable metric ranks compared to some of his peers. Outside of negatively graded plays, Williams performed well in these metrics and across the board since his first college season in 2021, including earning 90.0-plus overall grades in all three seasons.

 

Both Oregon’s Bo Nix and LSU’s Jayden Daniels are top-four quarterbacks on the PFF big board and finish within that range in the consensus stable metric rankings, which is an encouraging sign for them as prospects.

[The Consigliere]

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Why would Drake Maye be off based on that description?

 

All three can move.  Now if he said he wants the fastest, that would be Daniels.

 

 

 

That's definitely one of the things that's undersold. Daniels is definitely a running QB. His running is a huge part of his allure, probably the biggest part in some ways. He's a ridiculous athlete, scrambler, runner.

 

Drake Maye is your Elway/Luck/Young scrambler. A guy with ++ running skills, not simply a guy who can pick up a few extra yards. He ran for 1130 the past two seasons combined. He's got legit wheels, rumored to run in that 4.65-4.75 40 zone. So he's not a track star, but he is a legit running weapon. He's not just a pure pocket passer, he's a guy who can do both, period. Same way Steve Young could. In fairness to Young, he was faster, I recall hearing he was a 4.55ish guy in his athletic prime, and Drake isn't that, but Drake strikes me as having a somewhat similar build and similar running skills, good but not great elusiveness, good speed and acceleration, Young is a tier faster, but watching Young run in his late 20's as he was leaving his prime reminds me closer to what Maye probably is as a runner as he enters his prime in the coming years, or close to it. 

 

That's a bit undersold. If you are curious, I don't know why we didn't use Howell's running skills more. I think Howell's pretty similar too and was a legit running weapon, but we only occasionally used that skill, and the entire team seemed to not give a ---- about any of it by December anyway, just very odd, but my expectation with Maye would be 250-450 yards per year rushing. 

 

Howell's rushing attempts month to month:

September: 5 attempts in 3 games. Less than 2 rushes per game

October: 19 in 5 games. Nearly 4 rushes per game

November: 12 in 4 games 3 rushes per game

December: 12 in 5 games 2+ rushes per game

 

Why did we run less in early September and in December? Not really sure, it's odd that 31 of his 48 rushes were in 9 games. And only 17 in the other 8. 

 

Anyway, I think Maye's not the same kind of runner as Howell, but I think like Howell, he's a legit weapon as a rusher. I think he's supposed to be a touch faster as well which is kind of wild considering how much bigger he is. 

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Yay, something useful from twitter, even if its obvious, unbelievably obvious, people forget it all the time. Then again Burrow put the wood to the argument from one direction in 2020, and Marino did it from the opposite in 1983 (gazillion other examples too, recall Wilfork falling from a top 5 pick to the back of round 1 after an off final year following a family tragedy, and being a HOF in the NFL). 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

5 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Is that a good thing or bad thing? Neither are muscular but they are both tall guys with plenty weight (Bowers looked tiny next to Gronk though)

 

 

Good thing in my opinion. Better for a quarterback than it is for a tight end at least. And yeah gronk is a freak

[FootballZombie]

10 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

That's a bit undersold. If you are curious, I don't know why we didn't use Howell's running skills more.

 

B/c there is only so many times you can watch a guy get his head taken off before you stop letting him go into the meat grinder.

Howell did not display enough ability to protect himself, so you had to protect him from himself.

 

Your right about his running ability tho. Every other aspect was pretty good.

[AlwaysBeRedskins2Me]

2 hours ago, UK Skins said:

Disciples of Daniels is a damn good name for a cult actually!

Hmm what about the " Daniel's ****er spaniels? " It rhymes and those puppies are extremely loyal and really love their owner ( or their favorite 2024 draft QB ) and they bark a lot ( like this thread from his fans lately ) 🤣 

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

The weird thing about it, in particular, is, there's a gazillion different kinds of intelligence's, see Howard Gardner, and on top of that, even when it comes to testing intelligence traditionally, they still test a bunch of different factors to determine your "G" so to speak. Stroud is clearly gifted in some areas that the S2 either didn't pick up on, or only picked up on a portion of the factors or missed entirely. And people shouldn't automatically assume anyone is a genius or intelligent simply because of an S2, an IQ test, Wonderlic, ACT scores etc. I was hoping the S2 had figured something out, some short cut to figuring out spatial awareness and quarterbacking, but Stroud, it turns out is either a unique outlier, or an example of why even the S2 is unreliable. 

[mac8887]

44 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

Edited February 16 by mac8887

[UK Skins]

19 minutes ago, AlwaysBeRedskins2Me said:

Hmm what about the " Daniel's ****er spaniels? " It rhymes and those puppies are extremely loyal and really love their owner ( or their favorite 2024 draft QB ) and they bark a lot ( like this thread from his fans lately ) 🤣 

I put a laughing emoji because this did genuinely make me LOL but I'd like to award a thumbs up too, just a brilliant post!

[mistertim]

13 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

 

 

Finally, something we completely agree on.

[NOLA2DC]

4 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

And yet some people still bring it up as if it has any meaning with regards to QB talent. 

But for some reason, we still have the GOAT debate based on the player(Brady/Montan, not the team. People argue about BB without Brady or Reid without Mahomes.  I don't know who your top historic QBs are, but I'm sure the best had pretty good teams. Great QBs make the difference in critical movements,you disagree? 

[HTTRDynasty]

Team development is still so underrated.  At the end of the day, the career success of Williams vs. Maye vs. Daniels is going to be decided by who steps into the most stable situation and receives the best organizational support.

 

 

[Koolblue13]

That's my favorite part of this off season. We have multiple people on the offensive coaching staff that are great with young QBs. It's a complete 180 from who we've been. To also have the #2 draft pick in a great QB year is an absolute gift.

[Voice_of_Reason]

I've listened to a bunch of stuff here and there the last 2 days, and the media is falling all over themselves thinking the pick is Daniels.

 

I'm not so sure.  They're connecting dots.  I'm not sure the dots they are connecting are the right dots.  They might be.

 

I'm not suggesting I actually have a preference, I really don't at this point because I haven't watched any of them and my opinion would be more uneducated than it normally is.  

 

But I keep thinking of that line from the Princess Bride.  No, not "there are a shortage of perfect breasts in this world, it would be a shame to damage yours."  But "That word, I do not think it means what you think it means."  I think there are some who are hearing exactly what they want to hear in order to confirm their opinion.  

 

I also don't think the evaluation is nearly done.  Lots could change between now and the draft.  I'd be SHOCKED if Peters and company have a firm decision on the QB before

- Combine (medicals, measurables, interviews)

- Pro Days
- Interviews/facility visits

- Full workup of background including background interviews with coaches and colleagues.  They're going to want to talk to the girl who was the best friend of the girl who Drake Maye dated and broke up with in 10th grade, for example, and I doubt that's happened yet.  

[ThatNFLChick]

13 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Team development is still so underrated.  At the end of the day, the career success of Williams vs. Maye vs. Daniels is going to be decided by who steps into the most stable situation and receives the best organizational support.

 

 

 

It's such a crapshoot. I remember before last year's draft everyone raved about what a great situation Carolina had set up for Bryce Young with that coaching staff (Frank Reich, Thomas Brown, etc) and it ended up going very very poorly. 

 

On the flip side a rookie QB, a rookie HC and a first time OC made it much further than anyone thought in Houston

[HTTRDynasty]

3 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

It's such a crapshoot. I remember before last year's draft everyone raved about what a great situation Carolina had set up for Bryce Young with that coaching staff (Frank Reich, Thomas Brown, etc) and it ended up going very very poorly. 

 

On the flip side a rookie QB, a rookie HC and a first time OC made it much further than anyone thought in Houston

 

It starts at the top.  We're intimately familiar with having a man-child as an owner - the Panthers are in a similar situation now.  Apparently many of those coaching hires were due him stepping in and making those decisions (overruling his coaches / FO in the process)... just like he did with the Young pick.

[Conn]

2 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Is that a good thing or bad thing? Neither are muscular but they are both tall guys with plenty weight (Bowers looked tiny next to Gronk though)

 

 

 

This man looks like Georgia found him after he took 2nd at a YuGiOh tournament 

[Rufus T Firefly]

30 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Team development is still so underrated.  At the end of the day, the career success of Williams vs. Maye vs. Daniels is going to be decided by who steps into the most stable situation and receives the best organizational support.

 

 

Maybe getting a little off-topic, but I've posted about Shanahan and the Lance situation myself before. That would have taken some real coaching ad development work and he didn't really do it. Lance getting hurt was part of the problem for sure, but he seemed determined to play him as running QB from the start, which doesn't help in that development process. 

 

Developing any Qb int he NFL takes work. But guys like Purdy are easy projects. Mechanically sound, decent accuracy, played a lot in college. It's why I just shook my head at people who thought Jay Gruden was some wizard at dolloping QBs because of Andy Dalton. Guys like that are the entry level class for QB coaching.

 

What was done with Mahomes and Allen is the impressive work. Jackson as well. You want to show you are a QB guru, do that kind of job.

 

BTW, someone is going to make a move for Lance this offseason. Be interesting to see where he goes and if there is a chance for him to do something yet.

[MartinC]

6 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

Wilson is getting released I reckon. 

There is like an $85M dead cap hit if they release Wilson. I don’t see how they could possibly do that.

[HTTRDynasty]

7 minutes ago, MartinC said:

There is like an $85M dead cap hit if they release Wilson. I don’t see how they could possibly do that.

I think the writing is on the wall…

 

 

[redskin301]

Edit wrong thread 

Edited February 16 by redskin301

[MartinC]

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I think the writing is on the wall…

 

 

I mean its seemed on the wall when they benched him towards the end of last season - but I just don’t know how they make the cap work.

[ThatNFLChick]

28 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Maybe getting a little off-topic, but I've posted about Shanahan and the Lance situation myself before. That would have taken some real coaching ad development work and he didn't really do it. Lance getting hurt was part of the problem for sure, but he seemed determined to play him as running QB from the start, which doesn't help in that development process. 

 

Developing any Qb int he NFL takes work. But guys like Purdy are easy projects. Mechanically sound, decent accuracy, played a lot in college. It's why I just shook my head at people who thought Jay Gruden was some wizard at dolloping QBs because of Andy Dalton. Guys like that are the entry level class for QB coaching.

 

What was done with Mahomes and Allen is the impressive work. Jackson as well. You want to show you are a QB guru, do that kind of job.

 

BTW, someone is going to make a move for Lance this offseason. Be interesting to see where he goes and if there is a chance for him to do something yet.

 

The Lance thing is crazy because he played such little football. It never made any sense to me at all. Trading that much for a guy who only played 1 full season of college football? 

 

That is the danger of this new traits obsessed way of projecting QBs. Don't get me wrong, you want to look for traits but they have to have more than that. 

 

In Lance's best college season (2019) he only had 300 yards passing in ONE GAME. He had less than 200 passing yards in ELEVEN GAMES! Why would you trade away so much for that. 

[HTTRDynasty]

25 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I mean its seemed on the wall when they benched him towards the end of last season - but I just don’t know how they make the cap work.

Post-June 1st designation unless they can fool a super desperate team into making a trade. 
 

 

[Ghost of]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

The weird thing about it, in particular, is, there's a gazillion different kinds of intelligence's, see Howard Gardner, 

Gardner's findings are not...really something I'd hang my hat on.  While there are things besides g, Gardner's multiple intelligences are considered by most scholars to be lacking sufficient evidence or replicability.