The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

D.  With a young QB who plays some hero ball and holds on to the ball

 

Sam taking so many sacks isn't really about playing hero ball.  It's about not seeing the whole field and making his decisions fast enough.  Taking what the defense gives you is good quarterbacking, and Sam is not getting to those decisions fast enough.  And on top of that issue, he has no feel for the rush or diagnosis of pressure (and never has) and he frequently drifts directly into pressure or into the legs and backs of his blockers.  He's a good athlete and yet has no escapability because he just doesn't have any vision or feel for bodies around him and for finding lanes.  He is tough to block for.

 

We can do more to help him though, by scheming in moving pockets/half field reads and quick underneath options more frequently.  But I think Brave is right that he is always going to be a high sacks/pressure QB, no matter what kind of line you put in front of him.  It's a trait of his.  Brave is absolutely right that it was a weakness for him in college, I remember that being one of my biggest concerns with him when I watched him.  It's clear that it's a weakness for him in the NFL.

 

I like Sam though, and want to see how he grows over the course of this season.  His accuracy and toughness are such that you want to keep giving him chances to see what his ceiling is going to be.  I'm just nervous about his future and his sustainability.  I'm nervous that his ceiling isn't high enough for the next regime to fully buy into him, and I'm even more afraid that they will ****foot around with the QB position like Rivera did, talking themselves into half-hearted support for the status quo, then bailing on it mid-tenure and waiting too long for a proper development project to pan out.  I have zero desire to repeat the patterns of mistakes of the Rivera, Gruden, Shanahan, Zorn, and Gibbs regimes when it comes to setting up their QB rooms.  I want clear direction on the position year one for the next regime.  Is Sam good enough to give that to us next year with an entirely new regime coming in?  I don't know.  And I also know that it's not going to feel good if we pass on Drake Maye and Caleb Williams and then are looking for another QB in 2025 or 2026.

[Going Commando]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

So, is that Howell predicating his reads or was that playcall intended to go to the 3 receiver surface?

 

I don't understand why he's looking field side the whole play either.  His eyes suggest that the field side 1 was his read and you're right, the pre-snap read says Dyami should have been his first option.  I don't think he made that read, and I also think he was tripped up by the DL zone dropping and he kind of panicked because the timer in his head is going off and he knows he's taking too long.

 

I think misreading/confusion about the coverages pre-snap are slowing down his whole process and leading to a lot of this pressure.  Conventional wisdom says he'll get better at pre-snap reading as he sees more coverages and gets more experience, but my concern is will it happen fast enough?  He's got less than three months to sell himself to the next coaching staff.

[Warhead36]

19 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Is Sam good enough to give that to us next year with an entirely new regime coming in?  I don't know.  And I also know that it's not going to feel good if we pass on Drake Maye and Caleb Williams and then are looking for another QB in 2025 or 2026.

If we're in a position to draft Williams or Maye there is 0 chance we pass on them, because that means we completely tanked this season and Howell probably stunk up the joint(or at least didn't develop enough to warrant not taking a real superstar prospect).

Edited October 18, 2023 by Warhead36

[MartinC]

19 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

 

We can do more to help him though, by scheming in moving pockets/half field reads and quick underneath options more frequently. 

 

This is 100% what I would be doing - and been doing. 

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

If we're in a position to draft Williams or Maye there is 0 chance we pass on them, because that means we completely tanked this season and Howell probably stunk up the joint(or at least didn't develop enough to warrant not taking a real superstar prospect).

 

I don't think it's going to be that cut and dried.  We're not going to be picking one or two.  But I also think one of those picks will be up for sale and we're going to have to make a decision about whether or not we want to pay the cost to move up.  It'll probably take three #1s again.

 

This is going to be the first and most difficult decision our next FO will have to make after they hire their coaching staff.

[Skinsinparadise]

22 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

Can you answer my point about his college numbers ? Do you think he’s just been sabotaged with poor Oline play for pretty much his entire career, pro and college and there’s no way he’s the common denominator?

 

I spent a lot of time on Howell on the draft thread before that draft.  I reread that thread recently and I cited pocket presence as my #1 concern.  I've mentioned here a bunch of times he's part of the problem indeed for sacks.

 

But there are OTHER problems, too.  That's my point.  I don't think its some wild coincidence that the one pedigreed O lineman on this unit has given up zero sacks or that Lucas who IMO is a better pass protector than Wylie gave up no sacks and no pressure.

 

You seem to hit Howell very quickly on the game thread when something goes wrong.  For a young QB, you don't seem to have much patience for him.  That's cool. Clearly you don't think he's it.  For me, I lean positive, I want to see more but on the aggregate I've liked more than I haven't liked. 

 

And as for other problems with pass protection.  You said to me previously, The O line is fine and as much as you aren't a Howell guy, you endorse Ron's approach of not investing more in the O line because you'd rather it invested elsewhere.  So I gather you aren't buying the unit is a problem at all.

 

Since I answered your question, answer mine.

 

What do you think of Keim's point (he's far from the only one who has made it) of if you have a QB whose weaknesses is holding on to the ball -- you spend on the O line and factor that when buidling your roster?  Agree with that or not so much?

[Warhead36]

17 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I don't think it's going to be that cut and dried.  We're not going to be picking one or two.  But I also think one of those picks will be up for sale and we're going to have to make a decision about whether or not we want to pay the cost to move up.  It'll probably take three #1s again.

 

This is going to be the first and most difficult decision our next FO will have to make after they hire their coaching staff.

That's fair. Assuming we hire a new GM, I'm all on board with what they decide to do.

 

Me personally if you love a QB, you go get him. People like to bash the RG3 trade but that was the most fun season we've had since the glory years and until he got hurt RG3 looked like he was gonna be an MVP caliber QB for a decade.

[Starry Plough]

14 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

I don't think it's going to be that cut and dried.  We're not going to be picking one or two.  But I also think one of those picks will be up for sale and we're going to have to make a decision about whether or not we want to pay the cost to move up.  It'll probably take three #1s again.

 

This is going to be the first and most difficult decision our next FO will have to make after they hire their coaching staff.

Agreed, we won’t be in a position to draft Williams (who is nailed on for #1 overall, IMO) or Maye. That’s when it gets interesting then as to where we’re sitting and how much draft capital it would cost to move up. Only Howell will likely be traded should the ownership opt to go in a different direction at QB, so a lot depends on his development for a number of reasons from his own value to whether he does indeed develop enough to eliminate the consideration of CW or DM) - Josh Rosen if I recall netted Arizona a 2nd from Miami, so whilst you’re likely talking a handful of 1st rounders moving up, it’s mitigated even some if one or two 2nd round picks are acquired (potentially from someone who needs a QB themselves but is just out of reach and doesn’t have such tradeable assets). 
 

Course there are other prospects beyond the big 2, although for the record I like Howell and thus hope for him *and* the team that he continues to grow into even a top 10-12 QB. We’ll see. 

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I spent a lot of time on Howell on the draft thread before that draft.  I reread that thread recently and I cited pocket presence as my #1 concern.  I've mentioned here a bunch of times he's part of the problem indeed for sacks.

 

But there are OTHER problems, too.  That's my point.  I don't think its some wild coincidence that the one pedigreed O lineman on this unit has given up zero sacks or that Lucas who IMO is a better pass protector than Wylie gave up no sacks and no pressure.

 

You seem to hit Howell very quickly on the game thread when something goes wrong.  For a young QB, you don't seem to have much patience for him.  That's cool. Clearly you don't think he's it.  For me, I lean positive, I want to see more but on the aggregate I've liked more than I haven't liked. 

 

And as for other problems with pass protection.  You said to me previously, The O line is fine and as much as you aren't a Howell guy, you endorse Ron's approach of not investing more in the O line because you'd rather it invested elsewhere.  So I gather you aren't buying the unit is a problem at all.

 

Since I answered your question, answer mine.

 

What do you think of Keim's point (he's far from the only one who has made it) of if you have a QB whose weaknesses is holding on to the ball -- you spend on the O line and factor that when buidling your roster?  Agree with that or not so much?

They definitely could have done more. I wanted the first pick to be a lineman. They did address it and it’s been a middling Oline. It definitely could be better but as I’ve stated before, you could literally put 3-4 pro bowler/All Pros in front of a sack prone QB and you’d still be seeing sacks at a high level. Sacks are a QB driven stat. 
 

Also, I’ve stated many times that Sam has already exceeded all my expectations and I’d wager he’ll end up being a top 16/ top 12-ish QB in a few years. I talk about him a lot bc he’s the QB and the QB is essentially the engine of the team. Rookie or not, I’m going to analyze him and give him credit where he deserves credit and criticize him when he deserves to be criticized. He’s earned a ton of credit from me to this point and the only glaring issue I see is the sacks. Honestly if it wasn’t for him, I’d be rooting for them to lose every game so we get Rivera out quicker. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

Sam taking so many sacks isn't really about playing hero ball.  It's about not seeing the whole field and making his decisions fast enough.  Ta

 

I haven't have to time to rewatch a single game yet.  I'll gave it some time next month.  Trustng Cooley, who generally is pretty good with his analysis and has rewatched the games believes some of Howell's issues (not all of them) is indeed hero ball.  That is, he's taking some coverage sacks.  Receivers aren't open and he holds onto the ball waiting for that to change instead of throwing the ball away or as he suggests run the ball sometimes in those cases.

 

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

 And on top of that issue, he has no feel for the rush or diagnosis of pressure (and never has) and he frequently drifts directly into pressure or into the legs and backs of his blockers. 

 

Lack of feel for pressure is something I discussed on the draft that at that time, so I agree with that.  I do think he has some escapibility, that has been evident during the season.  But he has to feel pressure better.

 

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

Brave is absolutely right that it was a weakness for him in college, I remember that being one of my biggest concerns with him when I watched him.  It's clear that it's a weakness for him in the NFL.

 

 

Sure, we all knew that.  Brave hasn't introduced the point and now we are digesting it.  It's been digested years ago. 

 

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

And I also know that it's not going to feel good if we pass on Drake Maye and Caleb Williams and then are looking for another QB in 2025 or 2026.

 

Don't see how they'd be in position to trade for either one.  Maybe if Carolina gets a pick and they are sold  on B. Young?  Caleb i think will be taken #1 by whatever team ends up with that pick including Carolina. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

Carolina doesn't have their pick, they traded it to Chicago.

 

Its quite possible the Bears end up picking #1/#2. Imagine rebuilding around Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr...

[Skinsinparadise]

42 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

They definitely could have done more. I wanted the first pick to be a lineman. They did address it and it’s been a middling Oline. It definitely could be better but as I’ve stated before, you could literally put 3-4 pro bowler/All Pros in front of a sack prone QB and you’d still be seeing sacks at a high level. Sacks are a QB driven stat. 
 

Also, I’ve stated many times that Sam has already exceeded all my expectations and I’d wager he’ll end up being a top 16/ top 12-ish QB in a few years. I talk about him a lot bc he’s the QB and the QB is essentially the engine of the team. Rookie or not, I’m going to analyze him and give him credit where he deserves credit and criticize him when he deserves to be criticized. He’s earned a ton of credit from me to this point and the only glaring issue I see is the sacks. Honestly if it wasn’t for him, I’d be rooting for them to lose every game so we get Rivera out quicker. 

 

OK fair enough,  I am a bit surprised because on the game thread you seem down on him, we all pounce of course on players we have short leashes on, for me that would for example be Wylie.  With you, I noticed its Howell. But not so much last week.

 

He might have his share of sacks with a pro-bowl o line but i bet its a heck of a lot more manageable and the number is signficantly smaller.  Every QB just about has a weakness.  As Keim says (not that I need to hear it from him but like I said its refereshing for him to opine on something repeatedly because he typically doesn't do so much) account for a young QBs weakness in how you build a roster.

 

To me its not just about the aggregate stat but that it could be on a critical drive-critical moment in a game, giving him that extra 1/3 of a second could mean the difference between winning or losing.

13 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Carolina doesn't have their pick, they traded it to Chicago.

 

Its quite possible the Bears end up picking #1/#2. Imagine rebuilding around Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr...

 

Good point I forgot about that

Edited October 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

Yep I love the aggressiveness. The best QBs push the ball down the field.

 

He's just gotta hit those deep routes. He's barely missed Dyami a couple times.

[oraphus]

Related to taking too many sacks... I've been thinking that taking a sack might not be what it once was...especially if your qb is built like a linebacker. If you notice most of the sacks Sam takes are wrap up style sacks at low speed, so a low chance of getting hurt. Ultimately i hope he learns to process the field faster, gets a better feel for blitzes and learns to throw the ball away. I want to see the kid succeed.. he does have an NFL arm and accuracy. 

Wash might very well beat the single season sac record and still have Sam mostly healthy for the season... obviously not a goal we want to achieve, but it could happen

[D’Pablo]

I think Sam's sack totals are absurdly overstated since the guy has a tendency to get tackled behind the line of scrimmage when scrambling - and I realize this isn't a point in his favor. I also don't think this offensive line is nearly as effective as the stats suggest. Yes, Sam has a pocket, but it's cramped and doesn't allow for clean throwing lanes or effective scrambles. In any case, Sam has buy in from me - guys who are perpetually sacked aren't usually in the top ten in yards and touchdowns.

[MartinC]

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

And this is a good thing.

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Yep I love the aggressiveness. The best QBs push the ball down the field.

 

He's just gotta hit those deep routes. He's barely missed Dyami a couple times.

Brown has to catch them. The throw Sunday down the left sideline was a dime. I think Brown might have been being held - but the throw was on target. Same with the ball to Dotson..

[NewCliche21]

4 minutes ago, MartinC said:

Brown has to catch them. The throw Sunday down the left sideline was a dime. I think Brown might have been being held - but the throw was on target. Same with the ball to Dotson..

 

Yeah, his deep ball is something that might need an occasional gloss, not a broken part that needs to get fixed.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

Brown has to catch them. The throw Sunday down the left sideline was a dime. I think Brown might have been being held - but the throw was on target. Same with the ball to Dotson..

 

Dyami is dissapointing in cases where he has to dive for the ball or make a contested catch.  He comes off a bit soft to me.  Many of his miss opportunities are balls that I think Terry would catch

Edited October 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Dyami is dissapointing in case where he has to dive for the ball or make a contested catch.  He comes off a bit soft to me.  Many of his miss opportunities are balls that I think Terry would catch

I think Dyami is a really poor WR. Doesn’t seem like a natural catcher of the football. 

1 hour ago, oraphus said:

Related to taking too many sacks... I've been thinking that taking a sack might not be what it once was...especially if your qb is built like a linebacker. If you notice most of the sacks Sam takes are wrap up style sacks at low speed, so a low chance of getting hurt. Ultimately i hope he learns to process the field faster, gets a better feel for blitzes and learns to throw the ball away. I want to see the kid succeed.. he does have an NFL arm and accuracy. 

Wash might very well beat the single season sac record and still have Sam mostly healthy for the season... obviously not a goal we want to achieve, but it could happen

Are you implying Sam is built like a linebacker ? 

[MartinC]

2 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

 

Are you implying Sam is built like a linebacker ? 

 

He's 6' 1" 220.  Average for an NFL linebacker is 6' 2" 240. 

 

Sam is built solid. That said I dont care how big you are if you keep getting hit by very large people going very fast its not a good thing.

3 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

I don't think it's going to be that cut and dried.  We're not going to be picking one or two.  But I also think one of those picks will be up for sale and we're going to have to make a decision about whether or not we want to pay the cost to move up.  It'll probably take three #1s again.

 

This is going to be the first and most difficult decision our next FO will have to make after they hire their coaching staff.

 

It will depend where are moving up from. I think we will be picking in the 12 -15 range. Its going to cost a LOT to get to pick #2 from there. 

 

Lets see how things play out. Ive seen enough from Sam that if he continues to develop and I was the new GM I would look to continue to build around him next season. There is enough to fix before you spend a huge amount of draft capital on another QB IMO.

[Warhead36]

19 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Dyami is dissapointing in case where he has to dive for the ball or make a contested catch.  He comes off a bit soft to me.  Many of his miss opportunities are balls that I think Terry would catch

He's a JAG. Has he made one single play in three years in the league?

 

Even 2nd/3rd team receivers need to be capable of making a play every once in a while in this league.

[oraphus]

22 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

 

Are you implying Sam is built like a linebacker ? 

yes.. its no so much the weight.. its how he is built. Big hips, strong and muscular lower body. it allows him to absorb hits and tackles with less damage  (sort like Cooley used to)

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Carolina doesn't have their pick, they traded it to Chicago.

 

Its quite possible the Bears end up picking #1/#2. Imagine rebuilding around Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr...

 

I just don't see any chance that the first two picks aren't some order of Maye and Williams.  Harrison is a special receiver, but Maye and Williams are about a hundred times more valuable.  They are ultra special wire to wire #1 overall type QBs like Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck were.  You only get like five or six QB prospects like them per decade, and then being in the same draft class opens up so many possibilities.  If they stay healthy, then the question won't be where they go in the draft order, but who gets to pick them.  If Chicago gets the top two choices, then they're going to get a massive haul for one of them.

 

We have to decide if we're willing to pay that 3 first round pick haul for them (plus probably some mid round change too).  That's not really going to be possible to determine before this year plays out with Sam Howell.  But I think Howell has a tough row to hoe because he has to sell his next bosses on his potential in such a short period of time, while he's still learning on the job, and while the team around him is struggling.

[KDawg]

22 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I just don't see any chance that the first two picks aren't some order of Maye and Williams.  Harrison is a special receiver, but Maye and Williams are about a hundred times more valuable.  They are ultra special wire to wire #1 overall type QBs like Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck were.  You only get like five or six QB prospects like them per decade, and then being in the same draft class opens up so many possibilities.  If they stay healthy, then the question won't be where they go in the draft order, but who gets to pick them.  If Chicago gets the top two choices, then they're going to get a massive haul for one of them.

 

We have to decide if we're willing to pay that 3 first round pick haul for them (plus probably some mid round change too).  That's not really going to be possible to determine before this year plays out with Sam Howell.  But I think Howell has a tough row to hoe because he has to sell his next bosses on his potential in such a short period of time, while he's still learning on the job, and while the team around him is struggling.

I can answer this now. No.

 

Sit still and see if Penix drops or take BPA (with a heavy weight to OT).

 

Even if Penix is there I may go OT but we have to see how the year plays out.

 

Protect the QB.