The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[TheShredder]

What's the first rule of HEINICKE CLUB?!  That's right!

This is now Wentz Wonderland. Where we wonder where we'll land after 17 games.

[Voice_of_Reason]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Ranking last season's starting QBs by deep passing performance: Arizona Cardinals' Kyler Murray lands at No. 1

This is meaningless. Literally the ONLY stat that matters is completion percentage.  It's the one and only stat that matters.  And WOW, that's the stat where TH is ahead of Wentz.  WHAT A SHOCK!

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

As tough as some of the PFF personalities have been on Wentz, they also all said he's a "significant" upgrade over Heinicke.  That's part of my beef with them.  If Wentz is so awful and he's still a signficant upgrade over Heinicke -- than how bad do they think Heinicke actually is -- beyond awful?

 

PFF is very dismissive of Heinicke.  I think with them they oddly got caught up in the national hate narrative about Wentz even though they are supposed to be all about the numbers.  The numbers I posted about Wentz and the deep ball are from PFF which are good.

 

In fairness to them, different people at PFF have different opinions especially about QBs.  I recall years ago lol some would cite PFF to back Haskins potential and some would use a different PFF personality to trash Haskins' potential.   There was a PFF dude on Galdi's podcast recently who was actually somewhat high on Wentz.

 

We've been through this, but to summarize my position:

 

- When they stick to football advanced stats, that's good.  Pick your favorite advanced stat that is actually a stat.  

- When they bring "analysis" into grades, they're all over the map and the grades are meaningless and useless.

- Each of the different PFF personalities has different perspectives, so take each for what they are worth.  Some are better than others.  You can't group them together.  

- All of the stats they have tried to put together to measure coaching are hysterically bad and just there to get on radio shows and gum flap about how smart they are.

 

And, he doesn't work for PFF, but Thor Nystrom is a complete and total fool who I will continue to bring up as the example of the analytics people who think they know stuff, don't really know anything, and are insanely arrogant about it.  I don't Marvel.  But I need something from Marvel that is Thor's kryptonite So I can weave that into my analysis.  

[Conn]

Not sure how many times it needs to be explained to certain posters that completion percentage does not equal efficiency or accuracy. All it measures is whether someone on the offense, anywhere on the field (usually closer to the LOS the higher the completion percentage gets), catches the ball. Like raw yardage, a fairly useless stat unless paired with others. 

[Koolblue13]

6 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

He was talking about their penises.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

26 minutes ago, Conn said:

Not sure how many times it needs to be explained to certain posters that completion percentage does not equal efficiency or accuracy. All it measures is whether someone on the offense, anywhere on the field (usually closer to the LOS the higher the completion percentage gets), catches the ball. Like raw yardage, a fairly useless stat unless paired with others. 

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by Voice_of_Reason

[zCommander]

4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

My God Man

This is true. It is undeniable TH had a higher completion percentage than Wentz.  But that really just tells part of the story, statistically speaking.  (there is a non-statistical argument to be made as well, but let's just stick with the math)

 

TD% - Percentage of throws which result in a TD

Wentz - 5.4%

TH - 4%

 

 

Adjusted Yards per Attempt: (this takes into account TDs and INTs

Wentz - 7.3

TH - 6.4

 

 

Yards per completion

Wentz - 11.1

TH - 10.7

 

Passer Rating (for those who care)

Wentz - 94.6

TH - 85.9

 

ESPN's QBR (I'm not getting into a QBR debate)

Wentz - 54.7

TH - 39.9

 

TDs:

Wentz - 27

TH - 20 (Granted, one fewer game) 

 

INTs

Wentz - 7 (one more game)

TH - 15

 

I refuse to look at PFF grades because they are garbage and rely not only on statistics but on the way analysts grade plays.  

 

So, statistically, yeah, Wentz has a lower completion percentage.  But every single other statistic is in Wentz's favor.  Which means something.  

 

I want to pick on you for one thing though, the fact Taylor played one fewer game does not in any way effect completion percentage, because the formula is  completion/attempts.  If you play one less game, you have less attempts and less completion.  It's kindof like an average.  It judges only what you did.

 

So you say "only playing one fewer game" as though it makes this more impressive.  But, that's not actually how the math works.  I think you know that.  But in case you didn't ...

 

 

I am pretty sure I didn't say exactly the same stats. Sure some stats shows TH better in some area and Wentz in some. The idea that Wentz is this superstar that we got is not true. He is not day and night different than TH. Is he better? Sure. His team won 2 more games than TH did last year. That is not a whole lot of difference in my book. At the end of the day the W is the only stat everyone is going to be looking at with Wentz. Taylor grew up watching Brett Favre. You see a lot of that in him. Slinging it dangerously and sure the INT are going to be more like Brett but he is after all a risk taker and wants to make something out of each pass play.

 

By the way, didn't Wentz have better players around him then TH did last year? But he got only two more wins than TH did who played one less game too. I am not really high on Wentz like some of you are. I am lukewarm. I will warm up to him after I see how he does this year. Wait and see. 

 

My whole thing started when mistertim said TH is not going to push Wentz. I think that is an incorrect statement. Every backup QB wants to start and they are going to push the starting QB. Not saying they will get the job but the push is always there and going to be there and always has been. I look at things in more practical and human nature manner. To each own. 

4 hours ago, mistertim said:

So yes, the idea of Heinicke pushing Wentz is ludicrously amusing. 

 

But in real world of reality it is not ludicrously amusing to the backup QB who is also fighting for their own future and wealth for themselves and their family.

[zCommander]

NFL.com ranking the QBs in our division...

 

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
New York Giants: Daniel Jones
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
Washington Commanders: Carson Wentz

Apologies to my guy Prescott, who is a tremendous player and leader in Dallas, but I had to put this division, which includes three teams that could be changing quarterbacks this offseason, at the bottom. I like Hurts a lot, and the Eagles are ready for prime time, but he's got to improve his completion percentage (61.3 in 2021, his first full season as a starter). The man Hurts displaced in Philadelphia, Wentz, had a forgettable season with the Colts; there's little reason to believe Wentz is capable of recapturing his old 2017 magic with the Commanders after Indianapolis coach Frank Reich, who helped Wentz look like an MVP candidate in Philadelphia, couldn't make it happen last year. Jones' career passer rating (84.3) ranks 33rd in the NFL since he entered the league as the sixth overall pick in 2019. The Giants' decision not to pick up Jones' fifth-year option for 2023 is not a good sign; heck, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Tyrod Taylor play at some point this season.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Heinicke's 52.6 passing grade was 32nd of 32,

 

Darnold...ranked last in passer rating (42.5%).

 

 

What am I missing here? lol...

[FootballZombie]

12 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

What am I missing here? lol...

 

Passer grade is the score PFF gave an individual based on passing

 

Passer rating is the ??? out-of 158.3 stat

 

 

I think that's what they meant. I don't know what the 45% thing is. maybe a typo?

Edited June 24, 2022 by FootballZombie

[Califan007 The Constipated]

17 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Passer grade is the score PFF gave an individual based on passing

 

Passer rating is the ??? out-of 158.3 stat

 

 

I think that's what they meant. I don't know what the 45% thing is. maybe a typo?

 

Ah, got it...ok.

[mistertim]

6 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

I am pretty sure I didn't say exactly the same stats. Sure some stats shows TH better in some area and Wentz in some. The idea that Wentz is this superstar that we got is not true. He is not day and night different than TH. Is he better? Sure. His team won 2 more games than TH did last year. That is not a whole lot of difference in my book. At the end of the day the W is the only stat everyone is going to be looking at with Wentz. Taylor grew up watching Brett Favre. You see a lot of that in him. Slinging it dangerously and sure the INT are going to be more like Brett but he is after all a risk taker and wants to make something out of each pass play.

 

By the way, didn't Wentz have better players around him then TH did last year? But he got only two more wins than TH did who played one less game too. I am not really high on Wentz like some of you are. I am lukewarm. I will warm up to him after I see how he does this year. Wait and see. 

 

My whole thing started when mistertim said TH is not going to push Wentz. I think that is an incorrect statement. Every backup QB wants to start and they are going to push the starting QB. Not saying they will get the job but the push is always there and going to be there and always has been. I look at things in more practical and human nature manner. To each own. 

 

But in real world of reality it is not ludicrously amusing to the backup QB who is also fighting for their own future and wealth for themselves and their family.

 

Oh so now we've moved on from the "completion percentage is what matters" argument to the "wins are all that matters" argument. By that logic Russell Wilson is a bottom 10 QB in the NFL.

 

Nobody said Wentz is a "superstar" but almost everyone besides the few remaining Hive members here and elsewhere believes that he is night and day different than Heinicke.

 

Just because Heinicke grew up watching Favre doesn't mean he has much of anything in common with him as a QB. Favre had a cannon, which allowed him to make some insane and super risky throws. Heinicke barely even has an NFL arm, so when he tries that crap it just ends up being dumb decisions. Heinicke even stopped scrambling much last season as well, so any comparison with Favre there pretty much goes out the window as well.

 

And who cares whether it's amusing to the backup QB or not? The reality (which you claim to be talking about) is that Wentz is the starter and Heinicke isn't even a borderline threat to supersede him. The only way that Heinicke could potentially "push" Wentz is by knowing the playbook better. But apparently Wentz has caught on to it very fast, so that "advantage" for TH is pretty much already mostly gone by now.

 

The only people pushing Wentz are the coaches and probably Wentz himself. Heinicke is the backup and is more or less irrelevant to the starting QB conversation unless Wentz goes down.

[wit33]

TD passes and team PPG for the QB are my two favorites these days to explore and dissect when comparing QBs to rest of the league. 
 

What are others “go tos” or favorite categories to explore when forming an opinion on a QB? 

Edited June 24, 2022 by wit33

[Conn]

16 minutes ago, wit33 said:

TD passes and team PPG for the QB are my two favorites these days to explore and dissect when comparing QBs to rest of the league. 
 

What are others “go tos” or favorite categories to explore when forming an opinion on a QB? 

Performance on 3rd down, especially obvious passing situations. 
 

Air yards.

 

This is more an eye test thing but ball placement is huge for me. You can tell whether a guy’s got it or not by looking for that, no matter what the offense is asking for him to do. 

[zCommander]

5 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Oh so now we've moved on from the "completion percentage is what matters" argument to the "wins are all that matters" argument. By that logic Russell Wilson is a bottom 10 QB in the NFL.

 

 

Wilson was traded to the Broncos because he was so good to keep instead... 

Even Taylor led team beat Wilson led team. 😝

  

5 hours ago, mistertim said:

Nobody said Wentz is a "superstar" but almost everyone besides the few remaining Hive members here and elsewhere believes that he is night and day different than Heinicke.

 

The stats don't really show night and day difference. I mean you can think that is a realty but it is not. 

  

5 hours ago, mistertim said:

Just because Heinicke grew up watching Favre doesn't mean he has much of anything in common with him as a QB. Favre had a cannon, which allowed him to make some insane and super risky throws. Heinicke barely even has an NFL arm, so when he tries that crap it just ends up being dumb decisions. Heinicke even stopped scrambling much last season as well, so any comparison with Favre there pretty much goes out the window as well.

 

I clearly said style and not that he had a canon of an arm. I don't think it is healthy to constantly thinking of a QBs with a canon for an arm....lol

In the Chiefs game last year Turner pulled Taylor back from scrambling but you go ahead and keep on blaming Taylor for that every chance you get.

  

5 hours ago, mistertim said:

And who cares whether it's amusing to the backup QB or not? The reality (which you claim to be talking about) is that Wentz is the starter and Heinicke isn't even a borderline threat to supersede him. The only way that Heinicke could potentially "push" Wentz is by knowing the playbook better. But apparently Wentz has caught on to it very fast, so that "advantage" for TH is pretty much already mostly gone by now.

 

You don't care but that doesn't make it so. Just like any other position in a company. The little guy always cares. As for Wentz and his photographic memory, we shall see how that translates to actual play on the field. 

 

  

5 hours ago, mistertim said:

The only people pushing Wentz are the coaches and probably Wentz himself. Heinicke is the backup and is more or less irrelevant to the starting QB conversation unless Wentz goes down.

 

Again never said TH is battling for the starting position. That would be pretty dumb to think. But TH is going to practice like he can - human nature.

You keep on brining up TH is not going to be a starter, even though that is not what I said at all...lol

[Conn]

I’m glad you’re at least being honest at this point in the offseason, zCommander. Up till recently you’ve been doing this annoying “behind enemy lines” style of posting where you pretend to be excited about Wentz but then casually slip in an arbitrary comparison to Heinicke “that Wentz should be able to easily beat” that you can be loudly disappointed about later if he doesn’t, for whatever reason. It’s hard to describe but you’ve been doing it for months. Like saying “if Heinicke won 7 games with this supporting cast, the floor for Wentz should be 12 against an easier schedule”. That sort of thing. It’s better to see the truth that you’re still a HUGE Heinicke guy on the surface.

Edited June 24, 2022 by Conn

[zCommander]

6 minutes ago, Conn said:

I’m glad you’re at least being honest at this point in the offseason, zCommander. Up till recently you’ve been doing this annoying “behind enemy lines” style of posting where you pretend to be excited about Wentz but then casually slip in an arbitrary comparison to Heinicke “that Wentz should be able to easily beat” that you can be disappointed about later if he doesn’t, for whatever reason. It’s hard to describe but you’ve been doing it for months. It’s better to see the truth that you’re still a HUGE Heinicke guy on the surface.

 

To be honest I just like Taylor's style of play. The energy he brought to the team. The way the players rallied around him. If Wentz can do all that and can throw accurately down the filed and we are winning games I am all in. This is why I am still sitting on the fence and looking at each side of the fence for right now. I wasn't trying to pretend to be excited about Wentz I was trying to be supportive as much as I can be at the moment. I still have my doubts obviously. It has nothing to do with whether I am right or wrong later down the road. I rather be wrong then right as that will mean we are winning and will be in the playoffs. Post-season football will be really nice for a change. But, I am not the only one who will be disappointed if the Wentz experiment fizzles out and you are left with $28 mil less in the bank and once again starting over again and these QB debates continue to linger on and on. I will be 52 this year and just old, tired and grouchy...lol

[Dark Acre]

2 hours ago, wit33 said:

TD passes and team PPG for the QB are my two favorites these days to explore and dissect when comparing QBs to rest of the league. 
 

What are others “go tos” or favorite categories to explore when forming an opinion on a QB? 

Hairstyle.  Rypien with his blase' haircut was ranked 28th (there were only 28 teams in 1991).  Of course, with a great OL and a good helmet, a QB with a cannon can overcome a blase' haircut.

[Koolblue13]

2 hours ago, Conn said:

I’m glad you’re at least being honest at this point in the offseason, zCommander. Up till recently you’ve been doing this annoying “behind enemy lines” style of posting where you pretend to be excited about Wentz but then casually slip in an arbitrary comparison to Heinicke “that Wentz should be able to easily beat” that you can be loudly disappointed about later if he doesn’t, for whatever reason. It’s hard to describe but you’ve been doing it for months. Like saying “if Heinicke won 7 games with this supporting cast, the floor for Wentz should be 12 against an easier schedule”. That sort of thing. It’s better to see the truth that you’re still a HUGE Heinicke guy on the surface.

The ole put him on a giant pretend pedestal and give over the top praise, so when he stumbles you can pretend that you were his biggest supporter as you ask everyone "where is your god now" routine. 

[mistertim]

4 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

The stats don't really show night and day difference. I mean you can think that is a realty but it is not. 

 

 

Well, as anyone would probably agree, the stats don't always tell the whole story.

 

That being said, Wentz was considerably higher in almost every statistical category outside of completion percentage. He was top 10 in QBR, Heinicke was bottom 10. Even PFF, who practically have a team solely dedicated to bashing Wentz whenever humanly possibly nowadays, gave him a 71 rating compared to Heinicke's 60. Wentz had 27 TDs to 7 INTs, Heinicke had 20 TDs to 15 INTs. And don't try to play that off as Heinicke being a gunslinger who takes chances because that's pretty much exactly Wentz's game too.

 

@Skinsinparadiseposted a bunch of other stats as well. So yes, there is a pretty clear night and day difference between Wentz and Heinicke not only in talent level but in almost every statistical category.

 

I have no clue why you keep jumping headfirst into this Heinicke Hive meat grinder at seemingly random intervals in this thread. We get it. You like him. You like how he plays. He's a good story. You wanted him to be "the guy". But he's just not.

 

And nothing is going to change that...even claiming to be behind Wentz but setting arbitrary and sometimes artificially high bars for him so you can then **** about him later (it's really obvious when you do that, by the way).

Edited June 24, 2022 by mistertim

[KDawg]

Is there an actual real life discussion that Heinicke and Wentz are comparable? This offseason needs to end.
 

[Voice_of_Reason]

42 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Is there an actual real life discussion that Heinicke and Wentz are comparable? This offseason needs to end.
 

 

[bowhunter]

8 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

To be honest I just like Taylor's style of play. The energy he brought to the team. The way the players rallied around him. If Wentz can do all that and can throw accurately down the filed and we are winning games I am all in.

I would like to think that we all share this sentiment to some degree. TH was exciting if nothing else, Cinderalla kid that played with Moxie. He was hard to root against. I still wish he had a stronger arm and could have led this team for a decade. Sadly, I don't think it's realistic. I've accepted Wentz to lead this team this year and hopefully many more to come. I'm optimistic that he can stretch the field and score points. Not all change is bad, and it's Carsons turn to give it a go. But I appreciate TH doing the best he could in spite of his limitations. I have no problem cheering him on but acknowledge that if he's on the field, something bad has happened.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

11 hours ago, wit33 said:

TD passes and team PPG for the QB are my two favorites these days to explore and dissect when comparing QBs to rest of the league. 
 

What are others “go tos” or favorite categories to explore when forming an opinion on a QB? 

 

 

Mine is Girlfriend Recognition...

 

 

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

Is there an actual real life discussion that Heinicke and Wentz are comparable? This offseason needs to end.
 

 

 

We start off 0-3 and Wentz looks like he did in 2020 during those games, there abso-stinkin-utely will be lol...

[Mrshadow008]

1 hour ago, bowhunter said:

I would like to think that we all share this sentiment to some degree. TH was exciting if nothing else, Cinderalla kid that played with Moxie. He was hard to root against. I still wish he had a stronger arm and could have led this team for a decade. Sadly, I don't think it's realistic. I've accepted Wentz to lead this team this year and hopefully many more to come. I'm optimistic that he can stretch the field and score points. Not all change is bad, and it's Carsons turn to give it a go. But I appreciate TH doing the best he could in spite of his limitations. I have no problem cheering him on but acknowledge that if he's on the field, something bad has happened.

I will say there’s two reasons I’m grateful TH is on the team still. He knows the playbook inside and out which is a big help for Wentz. And obviously physical tools Wentz is superior in every way. That said there are a couple things TH has that hopefully rubs off on Wentz. Confidence and the ability to bounce back after a mistake. If those two traits rub off even a little bit onto Wentz we will be in really good shape. I do think the fact that Rivera is the clear vocal leader of this team should be a big help in taking some of that pressure off Wentz as well since he’s not having to try and fill that role.