2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[DWinzit]

21 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Yeah I am interested in seeing the play in the Senior Bowl.  But also i am interested in hearing Jim Nagy's behind the scenes takes of who these dudes are.

 

I've read enough from different coaches whethers its Arians, Gibbs, Shanny and plenty of others is that the X factor especially for a QB is their personality, smarts, leadership and committment to the game. 

 I don't really have a hard opinion for or against taking multiple QBs.  To me it depends on context.  I am not in theory for or against taking two QBs.   Depends on how things go down. 

I love getting the take of the coaches and scouts at the senior bowl, especially the ones fortunate enough to work with them through the week

 

I have no problem with the idea of two QB's in the same year. For me the only way it really makes sense would be if the take one in the first couple rounds, then in the 6th or 7th there is one they really liked. Worst case scenario the second guy doesn't make the team or is a PS far a couple years. You never know, you could end up with a Gus F who was a great 7th pick even if area backup for 5 years.

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'll suffer the wrath of @stevemcqueen1 as for being expletive stupid on this 😀.  I respect @stevemcqueen1 but IMO I disagree with him on this.  We see a lot of things the same but differ some on the philosophy around QBs.  Having said that, I don't really have a hard opinion for or against taking multiple QBs.  To me it depends on context.  I am not in theory for or against taking two QBs.   Depends on how things go down.  What happened in 2012 is they had Kirk rated as a 2nd rounder and he fell to the 4th.   As they even said later on, the thought was they could trade Kirk years later.  The Pats and Eagles over the years did stuff like this and got a nice bounty for their finds.   Whether it was the same draft or another one, doesn't matter to me, the same principle plays into, they kept doing it.   And at a minimum you hopefully have a good backup and cheap one

 

Oh yes it absolutely does matter if you pick a mid round developmental QB in the same draft as you pick the guy you are trying to develop into your franchise QB in the first round.  You've undermined that first rounder on day one, created an absolutely unnecessary and almost certainly counterproductive hedge, and split your organization on QBs day one of your build.  If you need a back up plan at QB, then you get a veteran.  You don't take another prospect.

 

If you wait until your first round prospect has had many years to establish themselves as your franchise leader like the Pats and Eagles did, then that is an utterly different situation.

 

Can someone point to a single instance of a franchise drafting two QBs in the dame draft and getting their franchise QB from it?  Of all the first round QBs who have developed into franchise QBs in the past 20 years, name one situation where their team drafted a second QB in the same draft.

 

There is a reason it has never happened.  It's because it's a completely inept thing to do.  You make a plan when you are building a team and you find one QB who fits your plan and you build around him and you stick to the plan.  That is the only way this works.  You don't undermine that QB by bringing in immediate hedges or spending a third of your cap on useless players who don't take the field for you.  You facilitate him in every possible way that you can because good teams who successfully develop their QBs do a great job stacking the deck in favor of those prospects.

 

For a build to work out and a QB prospect to develop into a franchise player and a team to develop into stable annual high level competitiveness, the QB-HC marriage has to be rock solid.  Drafting two QBs is the equivalent of getting a shotgun marriage and then immediately inviting your mistress to come live in your new household.  No, you pick one QB and you make it work.

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

  Taking Kirk wasn't a mistake.  Heck if Bruce had any brains to him, we'd have gotten the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 draft for Kirk and change.  Jay said he heard two first rounders.   RG3 fell off the map, Kirk gave them some competitive football for a few years.   I think few people think the 2012 move is stupid is now.  Plenty have said thankfully for the WFT they did Kirk otherwise that 2012 trade would look like a total diasaster. 

 

The trade was an absolute disaster.  And drafting Kirk in the fourth after making it was absolutely a stupid move.  I can't understand how anyone who witnessed the spectacular, franchise-cratering failure of that 2012 draft and think it wasn't a total **** show for us.  That's insane.  We could have traded Kirk for the #2 pick in 2017 and still have been deeply in the hole on resources we spent on QB in 2012.  It was one of the most disastrous and wasteful trades in the history of the league.

 

You know one of the big reasons why we found it impossible to commit to Kirk long term when it was time to **** or get off the pot with him?  It's the same reason we find it impossible to commit to Taylor or Kyle now.  Because they arrived here as a hedge.  They were never part of any coherent team building plan, and there was no QB-HC marriage with them.  That marriage is essential to establishing long term stability at both jobs.  And clearly teams struggle to get married to QBs they only brought in to hedge a bet for when they weren't confident in the original plan they made.

Bottom line, the goal here is to acquire a franchise QB right?  In order for the idea of drafting two QBs in the same draft to accomplish that to not be dismissed out of hand as ludicrously inept, I need someone to provide a precedent where doing so actually accomplished acquiring a franchise QB.  Can somebody start with a single precedent for it?

There's more of a ****ing precedent for finding your QB by trying out your grocery bagger than there is for drafting two QBs in the same draft.

[Skinsinparadise]

55 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

The trade was an absolute disaster.  And drafting Kirk in the fourth after making it was absolutely a stupid move.  I can't understand how anyone who witnessed the spectacular, franchise-cratering failure of that 2012 draft and think it wasn't a total **** show for us.  That's insane.  We could have traded Kirk for the #2 pick in 2017 and still have been deeply in the hole on resources we spent on QB in 2012.  It was one of the most disastrous and wasteful trades in the history of the league.

 

 

It was a wasteful trade because RG3 ended up a bust not because they took Kirk.  I loved RG3 at the time.  I know you did too.  But if I recall you think RG3 busting wasn't at all of his own doing.  If so, I am not on the same page on that front.  No doubt Shanny was a dolt for keeping RG3 in that game.   But RG3 clearly IMO contributed to his own demise in plenty of other ways.  He's a punchline now for reasons that he himself contributed to.

 

As for you saying it was an absolutely stupid move.  You are using some really strong language.   I'll just say this, there are plenty not just me who characterize the Kirk move with the benefit of hindsight as brilliant let alone being a stupid move.   With the benefit of hindsight taking Kirk and Gus is rarely characterized as "absolutely" stupid moves.  Plenty would consider your take on this as an outlier let alone it bring slam dunk so obvious that anyone who doesn't see it the same way has a stupid take.  

 

Edited December 19, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

There is a reason it has never happened.  It's because it's a completely inept thing to do.  You make a plan when you are building a team and you find one QB who fits your plan and you build around him and you stick to the plan.  That is the only way this works.  You don't undermine that QB by bringing in immediate hedges or spending a third of your cap on useless players who don't take the field for you.  You facilitate him in every possible way that you can because good teams who successfully develop their QBs do a great job stacking the deck in favor of those prospects.

 

For a build to work out and a QB prospect to develop into a franchise player and a team to develop into stable annual high level competitiveness, the QB-HC marriage has to be rock solid.  Drafting two QBs is the equivalent of getting a shotgun marriage and then immediately inviting your mistress to come live in your new household.  No, you pick one QB and you make it work.

 

The two times we did it in both cases many would say we were smart to hedge.  The hedge player ended up being the superior QB.  Kirk isn't some scrub/bust.  RG3 is out of the league.  Gus had a much longer and more productive career than Heath Shuler.   

 

Cowboys took Aikman and then Walsh that same year with the 2nd pick of the supplemental draft -- I don't think its because Jimmy Johnson is just an completely inept idiot.   The Colts took a QB in the same draft they took Andrew Luck.    Other teams have taken 2 QBs in the same draft.  It's not outrageously wild.    I dont think you go out of your way to do it but if you are a team still looking for the guy its not crazy IMO to double down and hope one hits. 

 

I think our difference on this is I don't put a QB failing all on the team.  I buy the stories from coaches who have said they didn't know so and so Qb was special until they had them for a week or so and then they got to know the dude -- his preperation, his football smarts, love of the game, etc and then were sold. From other posts I get the impression that you think its malarkey and all these guys have similar makeups and the difference is almost purely about whether the coach has chemistry with said player.   I don't think you position on that is stupid.  But I do think you are wrong.  It's not that I don't think its a factor.  Of course its a factor.  But its not the whole debate.  It's just IMO one variable among a mix of them.

 

For me I do think Rocky isn't a dime a dozen.  Dudes like Tom Brady are special and you don't always know that until you have them in the building.    Conversely, some ballyhooed first round prospects are exposed as "meh" as soon as you have them in the building.  Plenty of players have talked about this whether it was Brian Mitchell or Chris Cooley or whomever talking about hey you could see this guy doesn't have it from the jump or does have it.  I recall the stories about Desmond Howard on that front.  I recall the stories about Shuler and that Gus looked better in practice, etc.   Plenty of stories like this.  

 

I get the impression you think someone like Shuler might have folded because of the fact that Gus looked better in practice and the pressure got to him on that front.  But look first impressions do matter.  Ditto mental toughness which Arians (Gibbs, too) believe is essential to the makeup of a franchise QB.  Handling adversity is key part of that position. 

 

Also, work ethic, and getting off to strong starts some would say have a correlation. I think it is also telling if the first impression from some players are lacking.  I recall reading the stories about how M. Kelly and Devin Thomas showed up to camp out of shape.  I recall similar stories about Ryan Anderson.    Also, conversely, how Terry was studious and the coaches were blown away with him from the jump.  The stories about how Taylor was studying like crazy before the Tampa playoff game and Chase saw that and that was part of the reason why he was so pumped about him when he played well.   Heincike himself recounted that story.  The fact that beat guys would walk around the locker room in 2012 and would always see Kirk buried in his IPAD studying the playbook. 

 

Jim Nagy talking about how Matt Jones would be studying past midnight for a simple Senior Bowl practice.  While Haskins shows up to the combine out of shape.  There are a zillion of stories like this following the draft process including a zillion stories about how scouts have gotten obsessed with probing to find out what players have special makeups or for that matter don't have it.   Gibbs, Belichick, Arians, Shanny and plenty of others have harped on that point.

 

Bringing this to doubling up on the QB spot.  If your scouts for example think a dude like Zappe has special intangibles and he falls down in the draft, grab the dude if he's clearly BPA.  If your higher drafted QB is too fragile that he can't handle it, he's likely not the right guy.  It's not like all these college QBs don't have to at times fight for their job.   Tom Brady kept saying to some back then, he will beat Bledsoe for the job, and Tom will be the guy.   He wasn't cowed by Bledsoe even though Bledsoe was the dude in the drivers seat.  Drew signed a 10 year 100 million contract not long ago at that juncture.  But Tom was a competitor who was confident that he can show that he is the man. 

 

I've seen enough of different training camps to believe that if you take two QBs and the lower drafted one looked distincly better than higher drafted one -- it might actually mean something.   In other words, if you take two players at ANY spot I don't think its irrelevant as for what the coaching sees from the jump as for performance and preperation.  And if one of the two players clearly stand out and it just happens to be the lower round player -- its not crazy to ride that dude.   

Edited December 19, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, DWinzit said:

I love getting the take of the coaches and scouts at the senior bowl, especially the ones fortunate enough to work with them through the week

 

I have no problem with the idea of two QB's in the same year. For me the only way it really makes sense would be if the take one in the first couple rounds, then in the 6th or 7th there is one they really liked. Worst case scenario the second guy doesn't make the team or is a PS far a couple years. You never know, you could end up with a Gus F who was a great 7th pick even if area backup for 5 years.

 

I don't think it has to be that late.  I think the 4th round is fine if there is a dude you love there. IMO the 1-3rd rounds are the ones I wouldn't double down on. 

 

My take is since when does a Qb taken in the 4th round have the label hey of course he's the dude, what 4th round QB isn't slated to be the starter?  Some would say the 3rd round is likewise a backup spot for Qb typically.  I waver on that.  But I don't waver on a 4th round QB.   Trevor Lawrence couldn't handle lets say the Jags taking Ian Book if thats how it went down without Trevor being a basket case about it?  Or Kyler Murray couldn't handle emotionally them also taking lets say Ryan Finley?  Or the coaching staff's loyalties would be divided in cases like that?  Come on.  I think that's wild. 😀

 

My thought on doubling down or not at the QB spot is similar to most spots.  Who is BPA and do I need a guy?  If I need a backup QB and lets say Bailey Zappe is ranked by my staff an 84 and then next guy on my board is a 73 and he's staring at me in the 4th round, I'll take him.  I am not going out of my way to take another QB in the draft but if i am missing that guy, I am not adverse to buying another lottery ticket if i am talking the 4th round or lower. 

 

Listening to Shanny talk about their approach in that draft, it was similar.  They supposedly liked Russell Wilson and he was on the table to take later in that draft but they didn't want to take another QB in the 3rd so if I recall they took Josh Leribeus instead.  In the 4th, Russell was gone.  Kirk was there as the BPA and they took him.  Many say that pick saved their draft with the benefit of hindsight and that it's not a move that looks worse with the benefit of time but it actually looks better with the benefit of time the way it played out. 

 

As for this draft, you got me right now if there is a dude I'd double down on but I am definitely not ruling out the idea. 

Edited December 19, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[kingdaddy]

After today I believe Detroit will move forward with Goff....they have so many other needs and he can help them move forward. If we want a 1st round QB next year should provide us a great chance to get one....if one is even worthy of a 1st round pick.

[The Sisko]

I agree that drafting a second QB in the same year isn’t always a bad move. As with any player, it’s a crapshoot at QB, maybe more so than at other positions, and an injury could end a guy’s career anytime. However, I think the best way to address the uncertainty there is to use the Ron Wolf philosophy of taking one every year in the draft.
 

The other issue that’s a little different for this team than almost any other is our 💩 owner. If Lord Farquaad is pushing you to draft Haskins and the coach and you both know he’s hot garbage, taking a second one is a great insurance policy to have while Snyder’s guy flames out. In the end, QB is the one position you’re not going to win without having at least a very good one, if not a legit franchise QB. Whatever method a team uses to assure they end up with “the” guy makes sense to me as long as they get him, assuming they’re drafting with the rankings on their board in mind. 

Edited December 20, 2021 by The Sisko

[Skinsinparadise]

38 minutes ago, The Sisko said:

I agree that drafting a second QB in the same year isn’t always a bad move. As with any player, it’s a crapshoot at QB, maybe more so than at other positions, and an injury could end a guy’s career anytime. However, I think the best way to address the uncertainty there is to use the Ron Wolf philosophy of taking one every year in the draft.
 

The other issue that’s a little different for this team than almost any other is our 💩 owner. If Lord Farquaad is pushing you to draft Haskins and the coach and you both know he’s hot garbage, taking a second one is a great insurance policy to have while Snyder’s guy flames out. In the end, QB is the one position you’re not going to win without having at least a very good one, if not a legit franchise QB. Whatever method a team uses to assure they end up with “the” guy makes sense to me as long as they get him, assuming they’re drafting with the rankings on their board in mind. 

 

Yeah I am good with taking QBs year after year, if you don't have that guy and backup.  

 

Good point about Dan.  If our moron owner insists on a certain QB -- considering his track record of bombing at that spot and for that matter other spots too, etc.  Pretty sad that we got to deal with Dan's stupidity as a dynamic.  But it is what it is. 

13 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

After today I believe Detroit will move forward with Goff....they have so many other needs and he can help them move forward. If we want a 1st round QB next year should provide us a great chance to get one....if one is even worthy of a 1st round pick.

 

Yeah I thought that even before yesterday.  I like Corral for example but in their shoes I wouldn't take him, I'd take Hutchinson. 

[clskinsfan]

Pickett up to 1st overall in some mocks now to the Lions. Sucks man. I was really hoping his smallish hands would make him fall down to the mid/bottom of the 1st. But no one that needs a QB is going to pass on that mixture of accuracy and athleticism. 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Pickett up to 1st overall in some mocks now to the Lions. Sucks man. I was really hoping his smallish hands would make him fall down to the mid/bottom of the 1st. But no one that needs a QB is going to pass on that mixture of accuracy and athleticism. 

 

Love looking at mocks.  They don't matter but they are entertaining.   

 

The trend I am finding is Hutchinson is become somewhat consensus #1.  Which ones are raging with Pickett #1?  I believe you but I had a hard time finding those. so yeah am curious who has him #1. 

 

If Pickett burns up the Senior Bowl he might have a shot.  I think he goes top 10.  For me purely based on I've seen of him, no way i'd take him #1 albeit he definitely had a good season.   but again if he kills it in the Senior Bowl, maybe....  For me I'd go Corral over him. 

 

You'd like this one from PFF.  It has Hutchinson #1 but has us taking Pickett at #12.

 

 

 

This one had the oregon pass rusher #1, Pickett #15.  I was surprised because Cummings among the mock drafters seemed to be one of his biggest fans.

 

 

 

 

Hutchinson #1.  Highest I found here though for Pickett #3. Corral in the top 10, too.

 

 

 

McShay had Hutchinson

 

 

 

 

 

Hutchnson #1, Pickett #11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kiper-McShay Q & A

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2022/insider/story/_/id/32796373/nfl-draft-2022-biggest-questions-kiper-mcshay-preview-top-prospects-qb-class-names-know

Is there a quarterback in this class worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick?

 

Kiper: No, there's not. This class is much different from 2021, when quarterbacks went with the first three picks. I don't see one who is a lock to be a high-level NFL starter; my highest-graded QB is at No. 20 overall on my new Big Board. Now, teams always overdraft quarterbacks, but there are still big questions about the top guys in this class.

The four signal-callers in contention to be the first off the board are Kenny Pickett (Pitt), Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati), Matt Corral (Ole Miss) and Malik Willis (Liberty).

So who's your top-ranked quarterback, Todd?

McShay: Yeah, it's Pickett, who comes in at No. 15 in my new rankings. For context, Mac Jones was No. 15 on my final 2021 board, and he was my fifth-ranked QB. There's still time, but I just don't see a top-10-caliber QB.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

I looked some more.  I guess Charlie Campbell from Walter Football?  His mocks are funky typically so it doesn't surprise me he went with something different than most of the others.  And I saw one from Sports Illustrated -- that one was funky too, it actually had Carson Strong as the #2 QB in the draft.  And the Oregon pass rusher and Hutchinson weren't even the top pass rushers taken.

 

You never know.  Like I've been saying I do think for QBs this year in particular the Senior Bowl could be the be all and end all for the Qbs.  So I'll reserve judgement as to mock placement and my own definitive takes until that goes down.  But for the moment, I could care less if Pickett goes before our pick. It's not that i dislike him, I certainly like some of what I saw from him but I am not pining for him.  At least not yet.    But I'll reserve judgment on it and say its a current feeling that might change.  If he burns it up in the Senior Bowl and Nagy says he's a special guy -- it will factor in my opinion and in a big way.  Will see. 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

[mistertim]

Don't we have the #11 pick now? I guess those mocks were from before this past weekend's games?

 

Interesting to note that none of those have Malik Willis going top 10. He's mostly on there as a mid to bottom of the 1st, or in one of them he's in the 2nd. Some people thought I was nuts for saying Willis could last to the 2nd round but I still say it's possible. If we want him I seriously doubt we'd have to trade up. His season has been subpar compared to his hype coming in and early in the year.

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Don't we have the #11 pick now? I guess those mocks were from before this past weekend's games?

 

Interesting to note that none of those have Malik Willis going top 10. He's mostly on there as a mid to bottom of the 1st, or in one of them he's in the 2nd. Some people thought I was nuts for saying Willis could last to the 2nd round but I still say it's possible. If we want him I seriously doubt we'd have to trade up. His season has been subpar compared to his hype coming in and early in the year.

Yeah he won't go top 10 I don't think. There are more solid QB prospects. Almost every highlight I see of Willis is him running. Even his Senior Bowl promotional shot is of him running with the ball. He intrigues me as a prospect but also terrifies me. Big time Jake Locker/EJ Manuel vibes.

[clskinsfan]

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I looked some more.  I guess Charlie Campbell from Walter Football?  His mocks are funky typically so it doesn't surprise me he went with something different than most of the others.  And I saw one from Sports Illustrated -- that one was funky too, it actually had Carson Strong as the #2 QB in the draft.  And the Oregon pass rusher and Hutchinson weren't even the top pass rushers taken.

 

You never know.  Like I've been saying I do think for QBs this year in particular the Senior Bowl could be the be all and end all for the Qbs.  So I'll reserve judgement as to mock placement and my own definitive takes until that goes down.  But for the moment, I could care less if Pickett goes before our pick. It's not that i dislike him, I certainly like some of what I saw from him but I am not pining for him.  At least not yet.    But I'll reserve judgment on it and say its a current feeling that might change.  If he burns it up in the Senior Bowl and Nagy says he's a special guy -- it will factor in my opinion and in a big way.  Will see. 

Yeah. Charlie Campbell was the one I was referencing. And I am surely not saying Pickett is a lock in the top 3. But I dont see how if you need a QB you can pass on him for anyone else. He is just so Joe Burrow to me. And yes he has the one good year. But so did Burrow and plenty of other number one picks. I know I have said it too much at this point but Pickett is the best QB in this draft IMO. 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, mistertim said:

Don't we have the #11 pick now? I guess those mocks were from before this past weekend's games?

 

Interesting to note that none of those have Malik Willis going top 10. He's mostly on there as a mid to bottom of the 1st, or in one of them he's in the 2nd. Some people thought I was nuts for saying Willis could last to the 2nd round but I still say it's possible. If we want him I seriously doubt we'd have to trade up. His season has been subpar compared to his hype coming in and early in the year.

 

I put zero stock in mocks as far as QBs at this point.   Mid March is a different story.  I recall seeing Cam in the late first in some mocks early on.  Mac Jones as a 2nd-3rd rounder.  All sorts of weird stuff this early.  When Kyler announced he'd play QB instead of playing baseball i recall seeing him in early mocks in the mid first round. 

 

I think if you want to make a case that Willis is going to the 2nd, your case was hurt some last Saturday IMO.    I think he'd need a Jamie Newman level bombing the Senior Bowl to put him in the 2nd.  Right now, I'd guess somewhere between 8-25 in the first.  Senior Bowl will be IMO key for him. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This brings us to the next time we’ll see Willis under center: February’s Senior Bowl. A week that will remain paramount to where he ultimately lands when round one of the 2022 NFL Draft kicks off in April, his impact throughout the week next to Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett, Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, and Nevada’s Carson Strong—each looking to hear their names called on day one—will drastically boost or shoot down Willis’ ranking within a jumbled room of eligible QBs. Like Allen, who flashed throughout his individual throwing sessions and during the game portion of the showcase in Mobile, Willis’ fresh group of wideouts will provide a glimpse into just how impactful his skill set could be on Sunday when surrounded with similar talent on the perimeter. And, to the contrary, how he maneuvers away from pressure against top-tier defensive talent, reads coverages against ball-hawking corners from Power 5 programs, and leads an offense with 10 other prospects who are equally used to being the alpha within the huddle, will reveal to NFL scouts the kind of moxie Willis would provide as a leader for their organization.

Furthermore, the quarterback position is one that is dependent on the fundamental talent around it. If there’s no offensive line, there’s no time to throw. If there’s a lack of space created on the outside, there’s nowhere for the ball to go. It’s congruent, and, for Willis, it’s been an obvious case on film this fall. While his impact over the last month of the season is worrisome with lackluster performances against Ole Miss and Louisiana-Lafayette—two programs that have each have been nationally ranked this season—the lack of punch from a talent standpoint around Willis was evident. It’s unfair to grade Willis negatively running an offense extremely outmanned.

Like we saw with Allen, who’s gone on to enjoy a litany of success as the Bills’ leader and MVP candidate in the NFL, hold the reins on an opinion of Willis if you focus solely on a box score. The country’s most electric quarterback talent who touts all the necessary traits to compete and thrive on Sundays, the book on Willis requires much deeper context than a one-chapter story on individual achievement.

22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. Charlie Campbell was the one I was referencing. And I am surely not saying Pickett is a lock in the top 3. But I dont see how if you need a QB you can pass on him for anyone else. He is just so Joe Burrow to me. And yes he has the one good year. But so did Burrow and plenty of other number one picks. I know I have said it too much at this point but Pickett is the best QB in this draft IMO. 

 

OK.  That's cool. I wish I had the same level of enthusiasm.  I don't get the same vibes watching him that i did for Burrow but i get the thought behind the comparison.  But like I said, if he burns it up in the Senior Bowl I'll likely get on his or whichever QB burns up the Senior Bowl bandwagon.

 

I think right now am pretty much the same place as I am with Klatt.    Qb's 2-4 are really close with me -- the Senior Bowl likely becomes the key seperator for me. 

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I put zero stock in mocks as far as QBs at this point.   Mid March is a different story.  I recall seeing Cam in the late first in some mocks early on.  Mac Jones as a 2nd-3rd rounder.  All sorts of weird stuff this early.  When Kyler announced he'd play QB instead of playing baseball i recall seeing him in early mocks in the mid first round. 

 

I think if you want to make a case that Willis is going to the 2nd, your case was hurt some last Saturday IMO.    I think he'd need a Jamie Newman level bombing the Senior Bowl to put him in the 2nd.  Right now, I'd guess somewhere between 8-25 in the first.  Senior Bowl will be IMO key for him. 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah that's true...not worth putting a ton of stock in mocks at this point. Willis played well on Saturday but will that one game be enough to dispel all of the questions about those really bad games? I agree that the Senior Bowl will be pretty important for him.

 

As for this first tweet, I see almost no similarities between Herbert/Allen and Willis. Willis is a one-read-and-go running QB from a small school who mostly played against inferior competition. Neither Herbert nor Allen were like that at all. They were both passers who had the athleticism to make plays if necessary. Neither of them IMO were anywhere close to as raw as Willis is at the moment when they arrived in the NFL. So for me there's very little comparison to be made there.

 

As far as the second tweet, that's pretty much my exact QB board at the moment as well.

[Skinsinparadise]

After watching the Eagles run all over us.  I've been on Nakobe Dean from early this season.  total stud.  Others, especially @stevemcqueen1 got me on Devin Lloyd, too.  You add a beast at that Mike spot, sign a FS in FA (FA is loaded at that spot) like M. Williams and I think the defense is mostly fixed.

 

I do think it would be indulgent on their end to skip QB next off season.  Heinicke is a nice story but he's not IMO a top half of the league QB and eventually you need to find that guy.  so for me to forget a first round QB, it would have to be a trade where somehow the first round pick isn't involved.  Trading up from the 2nd into the back half of the first or trading a 2nd for a veteran.  Is that feasible?  Probably not.  But man if there is a way to do that, it would be ideal. 

 

My gut is they don't skip QB.  But for Rivera and Del Rio who played LB, I bet Dean and Lloyd are really tempting.  I thought before they wouldn't be in range to take either one.  But if they lose 2 of the next 3 games, I think they will.  Conversely they might be in range to go get my favorite QB in the class, Corral.  

 

I want them to win.  but losing would make the draft more interesting. 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

With our draft position dropping back down I see less and less of a chance of us not going quarterback. 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah that's true...not worth putting a ton of stock in mocks at this point. Willis played well on Saturday but will that one game be enough to dispel all of the questions about those really bad games? I agree that the Senior Bowl will be pretty important for him.

 

As for this first tweet, I see almost no similarities between Herbert/Allen and Willis. Willis is a one-read-and-go running QB from a small school who mostly played against inferior competition. Neither Herbert nor Allen were like that at all. They were both passers who had the athleticism to make plays if necessary. Neither of them IMO were anywhere close to as raw as Willis is at the moment when they arrived in the NFL. So for me there's very little comparison to be made there.

 

As far as the second tweet, that's pretty much my exact QB board at the moment as well.

 

I think you get too caught in specific references when it comes to Willis.  I didn't take Nagy's point that these players are apples to apples.  They all have their stories.  they are all different in their own ways.  But Nagy for my book has been almost Yoda like in pushing QBs that weren't loved by mock draft types as much as he thought they should be based on his interactions with them.  And its not that he touts everyone.  He picks his spots.  And has nailed it a ton.

 

Having said that I disagree with your points about Josh Allen.  Not that it matters.   Players with the benefit of hindsight are considered more highly regarded now than whow they were looked at then.    Plenty of questions existed about how raw Allen was.    56% completion rate among other things. 

 

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/josh-allen-college-wyoming-buffalo-bills/r9ey6i67ra0s1n26evkf0m2re

Among those top names, Allen might've rivaled Jackson for the most pre-draft question marks. Those other four quarterbacks went to Oklahoma, USC, UCLA and Louisville. Allen went to Wyoming. Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen all completed more than 60 percent of their college passes. Allen had completed 56, lower even than running QB Jackson's 57 percent.

One draft report gave Allen the eye-test pros: "Ideal size," "Very strong arm," "Excellent mobility." But the negatives had potential to ruin Allen: "Accuracy issues," "Ball security," "Struggled against better teams."

 

 

https://lastwordonsports.com/nfl/2020/05/09/the-truth-about-josh-allen/

Why He Was a Project Quarterback Coming out off College

Josh Allen was drafted seventh overall in the 2018 NFL Draft out of Wyoming. In college he played in 27 games, threw 649 passes, and faced a lower level of competition in the MWC... it’s easy to see why there were more uncertainties for Allen coming out of college than some of the other quarterbacks in his class.

Compared to the other quarterbacks in his class, Allen was very much unproven. Filled with potential and in possession of raw gifts and talents? Yes. But still very much unproven. Again, he threw 649 passes in 27 games. That’s an average of roughly 24 passes a game. And he did it against talent that many would consider to be below an NFL level. He didn’t have enough opportunity to refine his skills and become a polished passer in college.

 

He didn’t have enough opportunities to be sharpened by quality talent around him or against him. Allen was drafted because of his athleticism, and the flashes of remarkable ability he showed in college. And also because he has a canon for an arm. He was a high risk high reward prospect that wasn’t expected to come in and start as a rookie and set the world on fire.

 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/5-nfl-draft-analysts-on-wyoming-qb-josh-allens-accuracy-issues-and-big-arm/article_7d8ab8e8-bbe5-508c-9176-c05fe7c57b5d.html

Greg Cosell, Yahoo and NFL Films: "What you’re getting with Allen is a player with undeniable physical skills, but a quarterback who is unrefined and inconsistent in his execution and production. There’s a lack of structured discipline to his game that resulted in a lack of timing and rhythm throws. He has to develop more touch and pace as a passer to reach the consistency that is demanded in the NFL. It’s pretty obvious what Allen can do. The question becomes, can his NFL team coach him hard and develop him into a quarterback who can get the most out of those physical skills?"

 

Dane Brugler, NFLDraftScout.com: "It’s definitely the physical traits that are the most appealing, from just a size, arm strength, mobility aspect. He’s off the charts in all three areas. And I think just the fact that he’s a high-character kid, you feel good about the person you’re getting. Quarterback is very much an intangible position, and you feel confident that if he doesn’t work out, it’s not going to be because of lack of effort, lack of commitment to doing the job. He seems dialed in. He seems like the type of person you want on your team leading your franchise. So, from a character standpoint, I think he’s going to receive high marks from teams.

Why He Still Is a Project Quarterback

...Josh Allen also had very poor mechanics on his deep throws. He struggled at times to identify defenses and react against cover zero blitzes. And he missed open targets in several areas of the field. All very common signs and indicators of a project quarterback who is still developing.

[KDawg]

Those scouting takes fall in line with what many of us thought of him.

 

And the question looms: Does Josh Allen become the same guy without the situation he was drafted in to?

 

I'm one who believes that the quarterback's success is symbiotic with his situation and his work ethic/character.

 

Josh Allen is a hard worker who was embraced in Buffalo by fans and the franchise. The situation was a perfect marriage. I say that, but I do believe there's a few places he could have been just as successful. New England being one of them. But if Buffalo turned on him because of his early struggles... is he still "Josh Allen"? I don't know.

 

I feel the exact same about Malik Willis that I did about Josh Allen. Though I think Allen had better accuracy on a down to down basis and Willis is a better athlete. 

 

Willis has every tool you want and in the right situation he is going to be a total game changer. 

 

I'm not sold that this franchise and city (cities?) are the place for fostering that. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

29 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Those scouting takes fall in line with what many of us thought of him.

 

And the question looms: Does Josh Allen become the same guy without the situation he was drafted in to?

 

I'm one who believes that the quarterback's success is symbiotic with his situation and his work ethic/character.

 

Josh Allen is a hard worker who was embraced in Buffalo by fans and the franchise. The situation was a perfect marriage. I say that, but I do believe there's a few places he could have been just as successful. New England being one of them. But if Buffalo turned on him because of his early struggles... is he still "Josh Allen"? I don't know.

 

I feel the exact same about Malik Willis that I did about Josh Allen. Though I think Allen had better accuracy on a down to down basis and Willis is a better athlete. 

 

Willis has every tool you want and in the right situation he is going to be a total game changer. 

 

I'm not sold that this franchise and city (cities?) are the place for fostering that. 

 

 

To your point, I think Allen being a hard worker with high intangibles is miles more important than whether fans embraced him or not.  I think there is an element of negativity that just comes with the turf in today's world in public positions whether its sports, politics, entertainment.  I think Kirk ironically had a good line about this when he was asked about getting slammed all the time by fans on twitter, etc -- he goes something to the effect that as athletes they get paid well and emotional comments from fans among other things simply comes with the turf, its his job to take it in the mix. 

 

I think we are so hungry for a talented QB versus the narratives (its not just Heinicke) of overacheivers or dudes who are just great people but aren't brimming with talent.  Having said that even if I am completely wrong, then ignore the fans.  Rivera has talked about that in a different context as for doing what he thinks is right versus what's popular.     Fans crap on plenty of QBs, its not just our team, seems like its most teams who don't have that elite guy, I follow plenty of local reporters of other teams on twitter and see the fan reaction game to game and crapping on Qbs seems like a rite of passage 

 

I don't agree that the Wyoming version of Allen is more accurarte than Willis but I don't feel like arguing it.  Willis though definitely has stuff to work on.  Keeping his eyes up when moving in the pocket. The one read and run stuff about Willis is true from what I saw.   Similar to Lance on that front.  My other issue is decision making.  Like Lance he can throw a really nice deep ball.  But he needs to work on his accuracy especially in the flat.  He can make the hard throws look easy and the easy throws look hard. 

 

I am not married to Willis.  He's not my top QB desire in this draft.  That would be Corral and by a mile.  But i am not against the idea either. 

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[CobraCommander]

49 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

 

I'm not sold that this franchise and city (cities?) are the place for fostering that. 

 

 

I don't think he has the juice to get the fanbase excited a la RG3. Maybe it's for the best. Honestly the pressure for a QB to succeed here is at an all time low. We will take any breathing body at this point and root for them. The fans and media that put that much pressure on the QB are all but gone and silent. 

[KDawg]

22 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

To your point, I think Allen being a hard worker with high intangibles is miles more important than whether fans embraced him or not.  I think there is an element of negativity that just comes with the turf in today's world in public positions whether its sports, politics, entertainment.  I think Kirk ironically had a good line about this when he was asked about getting slammed all the time by fans on twitter, etc -- he goes something to the effect that as athletes they get paid well and emotional comments from fans among other things simply comes with the turf, its his job to take it in the mix. 

 

I think we are so hungry for a talented QB versus the narratives (its not just Heinicke) of overacheivers or dudes who are just great people but aren't brimming with talent.  Having said that even if I am completely wrong, then ignore the fans.  Rivera has talked about that in a different context as for doing what he thinks is right versus what's popular.     Fans crap on plenty of QBs, its not just our team, seems like its most teams who don't have that elite guy, I follow plenty of local reporters of other teams on twitter and see the fan reaction game to game and crapping on Qbs seems like a rite of passage 

 

I don't agree that the Wyoming version of Allen is more accurarte than Willis but I don't feel like arguing it.  Willis though definitely has stuff to work on.  Keeping his eyes up when moving in the pocket. The one read and run stuff about Willis is true from what I saw.   Similar to Lance on that front.  My other issue is decision making.  Like Lance he can throw a really nice deep ball.  But he needs to work on his accuracy especially in the flat.  He can make the hard throws look easy and the easy throws look hard. 

 

I am not married to Willis.  He's not my top QB desire in this draft.  That would be Corral and by a mile.  But i am not against the idea either. 

 

If they think they can foster the environment for growth I’m not against it either. I don’t think they can. I’m not down on Willis to the point where I think drafting him is an automatic disaster. I think he has the highest upside of any of the QBs. 
 

I also don’t think he’s going to be available. I think he’s going to wind up being the first QB off the board and early

 

But I think the fanbase does more than you do. The fan base and media. Maybe I’ll call them third parties. 
 

if you have support everything is easier. That isn’t to say a guy can’t get through that and make it happen anyways. It’s just easier when there is support. 
 

I dont think people not from the area can even remotely understand how much this area LOVES Josh Allen. They treat him as if he’s the second coming. If there are naysayers I haven’t seen them. 
 

But I’m not opposed to any high end talent QB. I just won’t have expectations for any of them. That leads to disappointment.