2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

The Bucs were stacked and were a 7 win team before getting a franchise QB. I think that line of thinking holds some weight. Also, using Dak Prescott as a rookie is a bad example. The guy had 29 total TDs and 4 ints as a rookie. He was pretty good right out of the gates, most of us just didn't want to believe that Dallas had hit gold that fast right after Romo and nitpicked him to death. 

 

Agree.  The miss with Dak is obviously judging the college talent.  He was one of the rare mid round success ala Russell Wilson.  But as a player he showed his chops immediately.

 I recall watching his first preseason game and Dak killed it.  If you load up a good QB with a  great supporting cast, not doubt you can help that QB be special.  So I never argue against the power of a supporting cast.  But IMO the most important aspects of a QB's success is their talent and personality.  After those 2 variables, I'd go supporting cast as #3.   

 

As its been pointed out here by others, Mac Jones isn't succeeding because he's loaded with weapons.  He doesn't have that.  The talent at QB is the hard find.  If the weapons aren't there, yet.  Then go get them next.  Ideally, its great to have it all in place from the jump.  That's ideal.  But most of the top QBs get drafted to bad rosters.  Over times those rosters evolve.  

 

Guys like Dak again, if you read about them, have special makeup and talent.  He helps make that point.  He also is an other example of someone who killed it in the senior bowl.

 

https://maroonandwhitenation.com/2016/02/01/dak-prescotts-mvp-performance-at-the-senior-bowl/

Dak Prescott’s MVP Performance at the Senior Bowl

Dak Prescott earned MVP honors (or more officially, most outstanding player) at the Senior Bowl on Saturday when he was 7 of 10 passing for 61 yards and a touchdown plus 13 rushing yards while only playing the 2nd quarter in the South’s 27-16 win over the North.

 

 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2672393-why-everyone-missed-on-dak-prescott

 

"Sometimes it's hard to judge the character, the football IQ, the nervous system," Jones said. "Until you see it firsthand and touch it, it's hard to understand how rare he is in terms of people skills and leadership qualities."

Mike Woicik is the Cowboys strength coach. He's been coaching in the NFL for 27 years and has six Super Bowl rings, including three from his tenure with Bill Belichick's Patriots. After all this time, he knows how players' minds work as well as how their muscles work.

After the offseason program had concluded, Jones asked Woicik, who had spent a lot of time with the rookies since the draft, which ones stood out to him.

"I'm not saying he's Tom Brady as a football player," Woicik told him. "But Dak has the same type of people skills and leadership skills that Tom has."

As time passed, Prescott's truths continued to be revealed. He would show up to The Ford Center at the Star, the Cowboys' new facility in Frisco, every morning at 6:15. He came to practice with the scripts memorized. Instead of hearing Linehan make the play call in practice, he would stop him after a couple of words so Prescott could call the play all by himself.

He connected with everyone from 14-year veteran tight end Jason Witten to the cafeteria workers. "Romo's team," he kept calling the Cowboys, even as he made it more his own with every pass.

 

 

Edited October 26, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

The Cowboys aced it with Dak and laid a perfect blueprint on how to bring a rookie QB in.

 

Great TE

Great veteran possession WR

Monster oline 

Solid RB

 

Then have a QB focus on short quick high percentage passes and lean heavily on the run game. Simple playbook.

[Riggo#44]

18 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

HC whose offensive minded next year.

 

This is one of the things that keeps getting repeated that is like nails on a chalk board: You do not need to have an offensive minded HC to have a good QB--approximately half the current top QBs (per PFF) have non-offensive HCs: Wilson, Cousins, Allen, Jackson, and Tannehill. All having great seasons under defensive minded head coaches.

18 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

The Cowboys aced it with Dak and laid a perfect blueprint on how to bring a rookie QB in.

 

Great TE

Great veteran possession WR

Monster oline 

Solid RB

 

Then have a QB focus on short quick high percentage passes and lean heavily on the run game. Simple playbook.

 

We have a good TE, great receiver, good O-line, and Solid RB...but we'll end up with Jimmy Garraoppolo.

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

This is one of the things that keeps getting repeated that is like nails on a chalk board: You do not need to have an offensive minded HC to have a good QB--approximately half the current top QBs (per PFF) have non-offensive HCs: Wilson, Cousins, Allen, Jackson, and Tannehill. All having great seasons under defensive minded head coaches.

 

We have a good TE, great receiver, good O-line, and Solid RB...but we'll end up with Jimmy Garraoppolo.

I dont know that the 49ers will be that quick to bail on Jimmy G. I think youre right that we're close to having all of those things in place. I also like that we're poised to keep our offensive coaching staff together for a while. Thats super important. 

[Riggo#44]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

I dont know that the 49ers will be that quick to bail on Jimmy G. I think youre right that we're close to having all of those things in place. I also like that we're poised to keep our offensive coaching staff together for a while. Thats super important. 

That's super important too--the offensive staff have done a good job this year, if you ask me. We moved the ball well without Thomas, Brown, Samuel, Gibson dinged up. Half out OL is out, yet their still producing It's not their fault Heinicke is a horrible decision maker (the dive and the pick were atrocious, game killing decisions).

[Koolblue13]

16 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

That's super important too--the offensive staff have done a good job this year, if you ask me. We moved the ball well without Thomas, Brown, Samuel, Gibson dinged up. Half out OL is out, yet their still producing It's not their fault Heinicke is a horrible decision maker (the dive and the pick were atrocious, game killing decisions).

We basically have a rookie without the tools. I liked Heinicke early, I just think he's out of gas. If Allen comes in after the bye, I think our offense looks a lot different. 

[BC-Redskins]

We will have a top ten pick this year I think and we back our horse (qb) and go get him and sign a FA in order to coach our pick up for the year after !!!!

 

which qb and which FA could be defining moment for Rivera as to whether he has success or fails like everyone else 

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, Riggo#44 said:

That's super important too--the offensive staff have done a good job this year, if you ask me. We moved the ball well without Thomas, Brown, Samuel, Gibson dinged up. Half out OL is out, yet their still producing It's not their fault Heinicke is a horrible decision maker (the dive and the pick were atrocious, game killing decisions).

Not looking to defend TH too much here, but 1) he put two passes into the EZ that should have been caught (or PI called), 2) he moved the ball all day, and 3) he did it with limited weapons and a dinged up rb/OL.  Doesn’t seem like something a ‘horrible decision maker would pull off?

Don’t get me wrong, he’s made bad decisions.  I tend to think he’s learned from them, the late throws down the sideline to bracket coverage, the throw into triple coverage vs the Giants for example… but then again, his latest pick was almost identical to the one vs the Saints.

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

We basically have a rookie without the tools. I liked Heinicke early, I just think he's out of gas. If Allen comes in after the bye, I think our offense looks a lot different. 

I’m so torn - I look at Heinicke and recognize his serious limitations, but think - this is an inexperienced guy that done some impressive things.  If he were a rookie, he’s certainly showing those flashes you would want to see.  I’d be curious to see him with a healthy Thomas/Samuel in the lineup.  To be clear, this is in the context of starting him the rest of the year, not thinking he’s a long term qb.

OTOH, I’m very curious to see a better arm out there, getting the ball to guys quicker, not floating passes, etc.  I don’t have much hope for Allen, but if I’m being fair, he’s another inexperienced guy that could improve.

 

Tying this back to the draft, I think Heinicke is a fine placeholder for a rookie, and I like the idea of drafting one of these qbs - Willis/Corral - that can move (similar to Heinicke) to compete for the starting job and keep some offensive consistency.  Of course, it’s quite possible that Allen could serve that same role.

[Riggo#44]

3 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Not looking to defend TH too much here, but 1) he put two passes into the EZ that should have been caught (or PI called), 2) he moved the ball all day, and 3) he did it with limited weapons and a dinged up rb/OL.  Doesn’t seem like something a ‘horrible decision maker would pull off?

He single handedly cost us between 10 and14 points with just horrific, unaware decisions. He made some plays, but makes some killer mistakes too--which is what a backup does.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

14 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Also, using Dak Prescott as a rookie is a bad example. The guy had 29 total TDs and 4 ints as a rookie. He was pretty good right out of the gates, most of us just didn't want to believe that Dallas had hit gold that fast right after Romo and nitpicked him to death. 

 

He was pretty good, because Dallas's team was good and he was given an extremely simple offense to run.  Simple reads, simple concepts, etc.  All the offensive talent around him let him develop slowly.  That doesn't mean he was bad as a rookie.  Just severely limited, but it worked fine because the rest of the offense was loaded.

[skinny21]

4 hours ago, Riggo#44 said:

He single handedly cost us between 10 and14 points with just horrific, unaware decisions. He made some plays, but makes some killer mistakes too--which is what a backup does.

I know.  I guess I’m not sure that two bad (bad is my take, but I respect you feeling they were horrible) decisions make him a horrible decision maker.  If we’re talking body of work instead, he does seem to make a couple/few per game.  I think most of his issues though seem to stem from his limitations and lack of consistency.  

[Burgundy Yoda]

5 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

He was pretty good, because Dallas's team was good and he was given an extremely simple offense to run.  Simple reads, simple concepts, etc.  All the offensive talent around him let him develop slowly.  That doesn't mean he was bad as a rookie.  Just severely limited, but it worked fine because the rest of the offense was loaded.

He definitely had a good offense around him but at the same time he was really good instantly and I kind of feel like he's still a bad example. There's nothing about his play that indicated that he was being carried by the offense. He's become a better passer over the years but he's been a pretty good passed since day one. Sucks that Dallas got gifted a franchise QB right after Romo while we are here foolishly still waiting for ours. 

Edited October 27, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

48 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

He definitely had a good offense around him but at the same time he was really good instantly and I kind of feel like he's still a bad example. There's nothing about his play that indicated that he was being carried by the offense. He's become a better passer over the years but he's been a pretty good passed since day one. Sucks that Dallas got gifted a franchise QB right after Romo while we are here foolishly still waiting for ours. 

 

He had elevated play because he wasn't asked to do difficult tasks.  He can do those tasks now, seasons later.  But back then he wasn't asked as much.

 

Simple route concepts within 10 yards.  No need to move coverage with his eyes to setup shots later.  Play action off a great run game.  Moving the pocket and working half or third fields.  Lots of designed stuff to get a TE open near the sticks late in the reads if he had to evade.  Jason Witten was doing 10 yard whip routes, which isn't normally a thing.  But he'd be there if Dak didn't feel comfortable or couldn't read the action right on the longer developing plays.  Dak runs far more offensive concepts now than he did as a rookie.

 

The Dak we know now in 2021, is nothing like the Dak that was a rookie in 2016.  Sure his ANY/A, QB Rating, etc etc aren't too different.  But Dak can now beat multiple defensive concepts by himself if that's what Dallas needs.  They can lean on him if other stuff isn't working.  His reads and throws now are more difficult.  It's not like Dak, as a 4th round rookie, suddenly was a great QB.  He wasn't.  The stats were inflated due to scheme/talent around him.  They had success doing that, so it gave them time to slowly put more and more onto his plate.

 

If Dak went to Jacksonville, or Browns (back then) or something like that, he would've busted.  Right place, right time, right team for him to develop.

[method man]

Is Carson Strong a less athletic Herbert w a bum knee or a poor man’s Stafford? I haven’t seen any of him but that’s the vibe I get from scouting reports.

 

Seems like a higher floor lower ceiling guy. Supposedly has a very high IQ and took a massive leap from 2019 to 2020.

Edited October 27, 2021 by method man

[GOATFrerotte]

I don’t know what Kenny Pickett did over the off-season but he should write a book about it because not sure if I’ve seen a 4 year starter be so terrible for his first 3 years than all of a sudden became an unstoppable legit nfl prospect. Crazy

[KDawg]

Breakout age is going to be a thing for him with the draft nerds (I use the term endearingly)

Edited October 27, 2021 by KDawg

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

I know breakout age is used often for wide receivers.  But does it matter for QB's?  If they suddenly "get it", as in what the offense is trying to do vs the defense on play design, that's a trait that will carry over to the NFL.

 

Not sure if this applies directly to Pickett's situation, just a random note.

[philibusters]

I agree breakout age doesn't seem that important to QB's to me. Joe Burrow was a 5th year senior when he had his breakout year.  With a four year starter like Pickett you have a big sample size.  You know his physical tools--you have seen is processing improved.  I kind of put Pickett into the same category as Burrow and Mac Jones in that he is going to come to the NFL with a relatively high floor

[KDawg]

Breakout age never really means much to me besides how long you can have with a guy. But most of the time the guy doesn't play his entire career in one place anyways. A good player is a good player.

 

I was talking specifically to the draft nerds (again, used endearingly)

 

And when I say draft nerd, I mean the mega nerd who relies on numbers and algorithms more than anything. (Again, nerd is used endearingly)

[Going Commando]

Pickett is a super senior, but I don't think he redshirted so he might still just be a 24 year old rookie instead of 25.  That's ok.  Guys like Burrow and Cousins and Russell Wilson have demonstrated that being a 24 year old rookie QB is not a big deal.  Maybe you get one less contract with them but maybe you also skip a lot of the growing pains as they went through them in college.

[Going Commando]

There are going to be a lot of reasons to not draft Pickett that don't have much to do with his play as he gets ready to level up to the NFL.  His hands, his age, his previous seasons of underwhelming tape.  I think you have to throw out the contrary info with him and just focus on this season's tape in order to see what his potential is.  This is him showing us what he looks like when he's at his best, and it is excellent.  He looks like a slightly lesser version of Matt Stafford to me.  I don't expect him to go #1 and I don't know where he ranks among the other QBs of the class, but I would pick him in the first round.  We're trending to a top ten pick and I would probably pick him in that range if he were available.

[HigSkin]

Joel Klatt gives a pretty good analysis of Kenny Pickett's journey and he calls it "hyper veteran college QB's" that end up figuring it out late in their college career and end up being really good NFL QB's, like a Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones or Joe Burrow.  They stick around long enough to learn the game but no quite physically gifted to rely on athleticism alone early on.  Thinks he should go mid 1st.

 

It starts around the 6 minute mark.

 

 

Edited October 28, 2021 by HigSkin

[philibusters]

38 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Pickett is a super senior, but I don't think he redshirted so he might still just be a 24 year old rookie instead of 25.  That's ok.  Guys like Burrow and Cousins and Russell Wilson have demonstrated that being a 24 year old rookie QB is not a big deal.  Maybe you get one less contract with them but maybe you also skip a lot of the growing pains as they went through them in college.

 

That is correct.  He'll turn 24 on June 6th of next year.

[Warhead36]

QBs peak lasts well into 35 ish anyway so getting a guy at age 24 still means you get a decade of top notch QB play.

 

This is Cousins's 10th year in the league and he's playing the best football of his career.

[philibusters]

25 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

QBs peak lasts well into 35 ish anyway so getting a guy at age 24 still means you get a decade of top notch QB play.

 

This is Cousins's 10th year in the league and he's playing the best football of his career.

 

Yeah, I think we all somewhat resent the rules that overprotect the QB, BUT I do think the rules have been somewhat effective at lengthening QB careers.