2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

I came into this season feeling that Howell was a lesser version of Baker Mayfield, and that is still exactly how he feels to me.  I think that's who he is.  Baker was smarter and more creative and definitely more accurate than him.  But Baker was also older and played behind a better OL and in a more open offense that played to his creativity.

 

It's a problem that Howell's game so thoroughly falls apart when he's pressured.  That'll limit his ceiling to a Daniel Jones or Jared Goff like territory.  But he's good enough when clean that you can win with him, just like with Goff.  You just better have a lot of surrounding talent for him.

[Going Commando]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He brings some bravado in the way he plays that is intriguing, which I agree could bring some confidence to the rest of the team.  I'd love to see more consistency from him.  Last year was a bit of a roller coaster for him though to his credit he played better as the season went on. 

 

 

 

They talked about those comments during the broadcast, and I was impressed with the balls on him.  And then he came into the game swinging and punched Notre Dame's defense in the mouth and basically spent the day taunting them and the crowd.  Different sport, but it kind of reminded me of Trae Young.  Twerpy and annoying AF if you're the rival team, but he backs it up.  He is an intense competitor and he knows how good they are.

 

He's got an aura of confidence and aggressiveness to him and I have this feeling that it plays incredibly well in a huddle in a way we don't get to see as viewers.  That's the Cam Newton/Dak Prescott factor that makes me afraid to write him off for current mechanical shortcomings.

[mistertim]

Jordan Palmer and Kyle Allen talking about Ridder. Not a whole lot there but still pretty interesting, even if only because of who's talking. They touch on his inconsistent accuracy a bit, mechanics, etc. They seem to like him a lot but agree that he has some stuff to clean up in his game for the NFL. Though they also noted that pretty much every college QB does.

 

 

[KDawg]

31 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I'm not sold either, but he is growing on me.  His leadership and toughness and poise are all there.  Good athlete too, and he looks like he reads the field pretty well.  And his pedigree of winning is about as good as it gets.  But I echo SIP's concerns about his consistency.  His accuracy is questionable IMO.  I think he'll let them go without feeling out his throwing window properly and just puts it off target too much.

 

But I also can't shake the feeling that there is some "it factor" with him, and that he could be amazing in a huddle.  He is somewhere between Kellen Mond and Dak Prescott to me.  If he puts in the work to improve his accuracy, then I can see him ending up on the Dak side of his ceiling, and thus he could be one of the best prospects in this class.  But right now he just lacks the polished arm talent of the really high ceiling low floor dudes like Rattler and Howell, so he's not going to have the book of creative and impressive NFL-looking throws that they will.

This is literally word for word my thoughts on Ridder.

 

@Skinsinparadisei like Willis a lot. But I’d like to see more of him. He has this x-factor feel to him. Similar to Corral in that regard.

 

But I think all these guys: Willis, Ridder, Corral are all going to need time before they should see the field in the NFL. Dual threats have a very difficult transition if they don’t arrive in the right situation. 

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

This is literally word for word my thoughts on Ridder.

 

@Skinsinparadisei like Willis a lot. But I’d like to see more of him. He has this x-factor feel to him. Similar to Corral in that regard.

 

But I think all these guys: Willis, Ridder, Corral are all going to need time before they should see the field in the NFL. Dual threats have a very difficult transition if they don’t arrive in the right situation. 

From my POV, this could work out for us as I think Heinicke has shown to be a capable enough starter and we’ll have Allen in the wings if a rook isn’t ready.  Or, at the very least, those two should offer fairly stiff competition.

 

Feels like we’re finally in a position to offer some organizational functionality/stability, Zampese is probably a boon to a young qb, and RR and Turner’s experiences working with Cam could be helpful (especially regarding a dual threat qb).  As of now, we don’t have to worry about Snyder pampering said qb, the loose, overly player-friendly style of Gruden, etc.  This feels like more of a professional organization than we’ve had in a long time.  We’ll see.

 

Not trying to paint too rosy a picture, just pointing out some (hopeful) positives regarding bringing in a rookie qb.

[Skinsinparadise]

I was one of the higher ones here on Mac.  So far he looks to be the most pro ready of the QBs drafted last year.  Though Zach had a bit of a coming out party yesterday.  My point here is I am going to pay extra attention to Nagy next Senior Bowl.   He doesn't tout everyone of his players the same way but I do recall him touting the heck out of Terry.  He was a big Mac Jones guy based on what he saw of the person there, I recall writing about it before the draft.  He was also big on Herbert.  He's not always right but he seems to nail it when it comes to players he finds with high intangibles. 

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[mhd24]

If we don't take QB, CB has vaulted to our top need (alongside LB, but you can get LBs usually later in the draft).

[method man]

23 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The character stuff seems nebulous so tough for me to get a read on it.  You also got some narrative of him being a strange dude with questionable leadership issues.  But then on the other hand, some swear by him, too.  But I notice it's often the case when character is questioned that said player has strong defenders who say the questions are nonsense. Sometimes the critics are borne out, sometimes not.  But its on my radar in case I see more. 

 

https://www.realitytitbit.com/netflix-reality-shows/qb1/qb1-what-did-spencer-rattler-do-season-3-suspension-explained

In episode 9 of QB1 season 3, it comes to light that Spencer Rattler would not be partaking in the Chaparral game as he had a sprained MCL. Spencer did not know when he would return to the field but predicted three to five weeks.

But as it was revealed, Spencer had not injured himself but was suspended from the team for the rest of the high school season. In episode 10, Spencer admitted he had “messed up” with a “childish, dumb mistake.”

Spencer had already committed to Oklahoma University and had plenty of footage, so his future plans were not interfered witth

However, the question about what 18-year-old Spencer Rattler did hung over the rest of the season.

What did Spencer Rattler do?

At the time Spencer was deemed ineligible to play, a school representative said Spencer had “violated district code of conduct.” Essentially, he broke the school’s policy for an undisclosed reason.

Radio reports in the episode say that: “it involved an incident on campus. It was not criminal, it was victimless and yet he broke some rules.”

Spencer’s parents Michael and Susan, along with the Pinnacle team were hush-hush about what had gone down but rumours began to surface immediately. As the only district code of conduct violation that results in a suspension from the football season is a drug or alcohol violation, it is obviously to do with this.

I just have a much higher bar on character for QB than any other position.

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, mhd24 said:

If we don't take QB, CB has vaulted to our top need (alongside LB, but you can get LBs usually later in the draft).

I would make LB a priority in next years draft. We have Jamin Davis so lets add a playmaking LB to support this defensive line. I'd also like to see another safety if there are any good ones in the draft. I like what the Panthers did, spend every pick in the draft on defense and address that side of the ball in the draft. Offensive moves can be made in free agency if necessary. I'm gonna be in the minority but I'd ride with TH again next year and keep my eyes open for any QB's of interest if they come available.

[Skinsinparadise]

57 minutes ago, method man said:

I just have a much higher bar on character for QB than any other position.

 

I do too clearly based on my posts.  But as for any of these players, I want to see what else unfolds.  A couple of stories on Rattler has certainly got my attention hence that's why I posted them.  But in his defense, I want to see what else is out there before completely writing him off. 

 

IMO outside of the talent, for me with QBs I want:  work ethic, drive leadership, smarts.

 

Lets take Peyton Manning for example.  He went to a crappy team that had a crappy owner.  He also played like crap his first season.  Why wasn't his confidence shattered?  Why wasn't he shackled by a losing organization?  IMO because of the person.  When you watch Peyton interviewed you can feel his determination leap off the screen. Ditto Brady.  Ditto Brees.  Heck I recall the story from our own Heinicke about how he wanted to impress the Pats organization back in the day so he arrived to the park at 5 am but was greeted by Brady who was already there.

 

There is a chicken and egg element to the QB spot IMO.  But I'd put the person's traits as even more important than the environment that the young QB lands in.  Though, I agree both are important. You want to give a young QB a good supporting cast to help build their confidence.  But I am convinced that the QBs with special makeup simply won't be denied even if the conditions aren't right from the jump. 

 

 I think a young QB is made via their talent and personality first and foremost.  A good coach can't make a QB determined or work hard.  That seems to be innate quality typically albeit not always.  Eli Manning talks about Peyton was just determined as a dude from the jump.  Since he was a kid.   The Colts didn't make that quality.  Peyton was Rocky.  The Colts didn't turn him into Rocky.   Bringing this back to Jim Nagy.  Nagy talked about Jones' leadership and work ethic on display.  For simple practices he would see him studying past midnight so he'd look ready the next day among other things.  

 

All these guys on that front aren't equal clearly.  There is a talent disparity.  But there is also a personality disparity.  Mike Shanahan has talked about this as for QBs.  Arians has.  Gibbs has.  These guys aren't all the same.  And I grant that its hard from our couches to figure out who has the right personality.  But i am learning to trust certain people who seem to have a beat on it, and Nagy seems to be one of those guys considering he was a scout and spends a week with a lot of these players and gets to see how they roll as dudes.  

Edited October 4, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, mhd24 said:

If we don't take QB, CB has vaulted to our top need (alongside LB, but you can get LBs usually later in the draft).

 

There are already three surefire first rounders in this years class with Stingley, Elam, and Gardner.  Add Hamilton to the list and that is four DBs who could go top 16.

 

This will be an interesting class in that there are enough high end prospects at CB, OT, and DL that it could push some decent QB talent down the board in the first and into the second.

[Koolblue13]

Just now, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

There are already three surefire first rounders in this years class with Stingley, Elam, and Gardner.  Add Hamilton to the list and that is four DBs who could go top 16.

 

This will be an interesting class in that there are enough high end prospects at CB, OT, and DL that it could push some decent QB talent down the board in the first and into the second.

Could you even imagine getting Hamilton and Strong out of this draft and then maybe bringing in a Trubinsky or going all out for Rodgers? That would be a huge win.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

There are already three surefire first rounders in this years class with Stingley, Elam, and Gardner.  Add Hamilton to the list and that is four DBs who could go top 16.

 

This will be an interesting class in that there are enough high end prospects at CB, OT, and DL that it could push some decent QB talent down the board in the first and into the second.

I actually think this class could be a phenomenal LB class as well. I’d like to trade Scherff for something but we won’t be able to with his current franchise tag.

 

Coming out of this upcoming draft with LB/S/CB/QB (3 of the 4) in the first two rounds would be a very big deal. 
 

If TH can man the helm for a bit we’re in better shape. 
 

I know this won’t be popular and I’m by no means sold at this point but Trubisky is looking much better in Buffalo. I wonder if Chicago just didn’t use him correctly (I know they didn’t because Nagy…)

[Going Commando]

7 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Could you even imagine getting Hamilton and Strong out of this draft and then maybe bringing in a Trubinsky or going all out for Rodgers? That would be a huge win.

 

I have no take on Strong yet because I haven't watched him enough.  But something to that effect of difference maker on D + QB would be a major haul.

 

I'm still pulling for Heinicke to lock down the job though.  I find myself trying to remember how long it was before Dallas knew they had a keeper in Romo.  With Dak, they seemed to know almost immediately.  I'm wondering if we could reach that threshold with Heinicke this season.

 

Let's say he labors through an up and down season and we're basically one or two games under .500 at the end, but his individual stat line is basically what his first four games are extrapolated over 17.  And let's say the only first round looking QBs in the class are Howell, Corral, and Willis.  Let's say we pick in the middle of the first and Willis and Corral go top five, and we're looking at a scenario of either trading up for Howell or picking Ridder because we know he won't be there in the second.

 

I kind of feel like I pass on QB and roll with Heinicke again in that situation.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 QBs I liked, rough starts but give them time.  I watched some of Zach's game, he looked sharp at times.  I didn't watch Fields at all but he's the dude I wanted to trade up for.  

 

Too early to tell if this QB crop is on par with last year.  Seems like the current consensus is this crop isn't as top heavy but its deeper.

 

It should be an interesting off season.  I don't think they are going to skip QBs in this draft.  Heinicke is a good story, and he might end up the answer.  But I think because of durability concerns and him being 29 next year -- I think they will keep QB on the table.  Heck if worse case is Heinicke ends up the guy and they have a hyped backup, then that player could serve as trade bait.  That was somewhat Shanny's narrative later on when he explained why they took Cousins after taking RG3.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[kingdaddy]

13 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I have no take on Strong yet because I haven't watched him enough.  But something to that effect of difference maker on D + QB would be a major haul.

 

I'm still pulling for Heinicke to lock down the job though.  I find myself trying to remember how long it was before Dallas knew they had a keeper in Romo.  With Dak, they seemed to know almost immediately.  I'm wondering if we could reach that threshold with Heinicke this season.

 

Let's say he labors through an up and down season and we're basically one or two games under .500 at the end, but his individual stat line is basically what his first four games are extrapolated over 17.  And let's say the only first round looking QBs in the class are Howell, Corral, and Willis.  Let's say we pick in the middle of the first and Willis and Corral go top five, and we're looking at a scenario of either trading up for Howell or picking Ridder because we know he won't be there in the second.

 

I kind of feel like I pass on QB and roll with Heinicke again in that situation.

The division games will tell us the most about TH. Specifically, how will he look against Dallas and on the road in NY and Philly. I suspect he'll be fine but I think those will be the games he's judged on the most. I'm also very excited to see him against Mahomes and Rodgers...If he beats one of them and holds his own in the division games we may be talking about our future QB. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I am all in on Heinicke as for personality, moxie, making plays off script.  My hesitation about him is can you make it in the NFL with arm strength like that?  I can't think of an easy comp to that among successful QBs in this league.   Not saying I am confident with an answer one way or another -- I really don't know.  I see some throws that might be picked off.  Heck the Atlanta HC said postgame they had the oppprtunity for picks but they didn't take advantage.  And look maybe that point is overplayed, i am not sure about that either. 

 

If the whole season unfolds the way Heinicke has started, I might be sold on forgetting about QB but for the moment my thoughts is to stay in the Qb business. 

Edited October 4, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[mhd24]

15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am all in on Heinicke as for personality, moxie, making plays off script.  My hesitation about him is can you make it in the NFL with arm strength like that?  I can't think of an easy comp to that among successful QBs in this league.   Not saying I am confident with an answer one way or another -- I really don't know.  I see some throws that might be picked off.  Heck the Atlanta HC said postgame they had the oppprtunity for picks but they didn't take advantage.  And look maybe that point is overplayed, i am not sure about that either. 

 

If the whole season unfolds the way Heinicke has started, I might be sold on forgetting about QB but for the moment my thoughts is to stay in the Qb business. 

I don't think he's got a strong enough arm or accuracy.  He's got moxie and off-script ability off the chains, but he's been lucky he hasn't had at least 4 picks this year.  Plus, that Falcons defense is trash.  

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

I don't think he's got a strong enough arm or accuracy.  He's got moxie and off-script ability off the chains, but he's been lucky he hasn't had at least 4 picks this year.  Plus, that Falcons defense is trash.  

 

 

I know from various wounds over the years from heated debates that a QB thread can be really tough because some who are fully sold really hate it when others aren't as 100% sold and ditto the reverse sometimes with that QBs critics.   So the debates can often be devoid of any grey in the argument and just bringing up the grey makes you a hater, etc.

 

For me on Heinicke, love the story, love aspects of his game.  But I can also see a narrative where it doesn't work out, too.    And considering possible questions about his durability and the fact that he will be 29 next year not 22 -- my leaning is to hedge my bets and draft a guy, too especially if this ends up a deep draft for QB.  Now if Heinicke just burns it up all season, I likely would change my mind. 

[Koolblue13]

42 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

I don't think he's got a strong enough arm or accuracy.  He's got moxie and off-script ability off the chains, but he's been lucky he hasn't had at least 4 picks this year.  Plus, that Falcons defense is trash.  

He made the Atlanta secondary look pretty good and almost got Terry killed a few times. I love the Heinicke story, but he doesn't have an NFL arm. Maybe that improves somewhat, but it's an issue. He's going to have some very ugly games against actual good teams.

[86 Snyder]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I was one of the higher ones here on Mac.  So far he looks to be the most pro ready of the QBs drafted last year.  Though Zach had a bit of a coming out party yesterday.  My point here is I am going to pay extra attention to Nagy next Senior Bowl.   He doesn't tout everyone of his players the same way but I do recall him touting the heck out of Terry.  He was a big Mac Jones guy based on what he saw of the person there, I recall writing about it before the draft.  He was also big on Herbert.  He's not always right but he seems to nail it when it comes to players he finds with high intangibles. 

 

 

 

 

He's proved to be the most pro ready but I still think he has by far the lowest ceiling of any of the 5 rookie QBs.  

 

I'd *much* rather have Lawrence or Lance.  Would prefer rolling the dice on Fields too.  Wilson...um...not so sure.  He's had some truly terrible moments.

 

Jones just looks like a competant game manager to me.  I'd rather aim higher.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

He's proved to be the most pro ready but I still think he has by far the lowest ceiling of any of the 5 rookie QBs.  

 

I'd *much* rather have Lawrence or Lance.  Would prefer rolling the dice on Fields too.  Wilson...um...not so sure.  He's had some truly terrible moments.

 

Jones just looks like a competant game manager to me.  I'd rather aim higher.

 

I think Mac's upside is better than a competent game manager.  But I don't have the energy to relive my arguments for Mac, I gave plenty enough energy to that cause in the 2021 draft thread.  He wasn't my top QB choice but I would have taken him in a heartbeat if he fell to 19.  And according to one beat reporter so would have the WFT. 

 

I think its premature to crown a QB based on a small sample size, conversely kill a rookie based on a small sample size.  Wilson didn't look hot the first three games but looked good yesterday.  The story is yet to be told.  Ditto Fields with one atrocious game and one good one.   As for Lance, I watched some of him yesterday, up and down.  He was the one QB among the top ones that i had a hard time landing on a strong opinion about.  Like Mac Jones, he was hailed like crazy for his intangibles so I like that.  Strong upside I agree.  Very raw though. 

Edited October 4, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[PartyPosse]

Best thing to do is wait another season for the Jets to ruin Wilson, trade a 3rd for him and turn him into Darnold 2.0

[Going Commando]

My hypothetical is Heinicke leads us to like an 8-9 record, has ~34 TDs against ~13 INTs, ~4000 yards, and a 69% completion rate which is extrapolating his current rates of production over 17 games.

 

I think you stick with that.  And the other thing is, he's already got a strong rapport with the OC, which is basically the only scenario where I'd be fine with keeping Scott Turner around.

 

Yes, he is limited.  But that kind of production is enough from the QB position.  Now you build the strongest defense and offensive supporting cast you possibly can and just go for it.  Back a brinks truck up for the best WR or TE to hit the market, keep all of our good players to second deals, get another RB, keep the OL pipeline flowing, and use our firsts on difference maker defensive players.