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2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread


zCommander
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7 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Didn't we still play 4 different QBs in 2021 with at least three of them starting at least once?

 

Isn't that the same thing we did in 2020, with only difference being technically 4 starters as Taylor started the playoff game?

 

I'm sorry, I can accept him being an acceptable backup, but Taylor didn't stablize anything, I completely disagree with you.

We haven’t had a guy make 11 starts at QB,  let alone 15, since 2017.  That’s stabilizing the position.  

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19 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

We haven’t had a guy make 11 starts at QB,  let alone 15, since 2017.  That’s stabilizing the position.  

 

No we just have an incredibly low standard for what that means in context of what we've been through. Stabilizing is the wrong word, if for any reason we did everything we could to replace him as a starter this offseason.

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2 hours ago, sebestian said:

where do you guys see Watson being drafted WR out NDSU?  I am thinking of ways to get him.  Do you think he lasts till #47?

 

He had been pegged as a 3rd or 4th round guy pre-combine ... at least in the mock draft world. But I have seen him going late 1st to mid-2nd in most mocks, and that honestly fits where he should be. He's a beast. And I'd love to have him here if it worked out. Fortunately it's a really deep class. John Metchie is a guy who many had as a mid-1st before his injury.

 

I have seen Drake London, Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams, Christian Watson, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson all mocked in the 1st. IMO if we could land any of them in a trade-down we'd be in great shape with our weapons. McLaurin, Brown, Samuel, Milne and a 1st or 2nd round WR would be a nice group to build around.

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2 hours ago, sebestian said:

where do you guys see Watson being drafted WR out NDSU?  I am thinking of ways to get him.  Do you think he lasts till #47?

 

I think late first/early to mid 2nd.

 

As I mentioned precombine, his numbers reminded me of Terry McLaurin, who was one of my guys before that draft.  Good yard totals but nothing killer -- that stat was used against Terry in arguments back then.  But like Terry he has a sick YPC and was a big play waiting to happen in college. 

 

With his freakish size/speed., he IMO can be special.  And like Terry supposedly has great intangibles. 

 

 

 

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If we traded back from #11 into the mid to late 20's added a 2nd (and a future pick or a 4th or something else) ...

 

I would take Watson there. But there's a chance Williams falls. Metchie in the 2nd ... Jahan Dotson would be another guy who could be pushed down due to the guys ahead of him. But Watson has the "it" factor to me. I think he could be a monster.

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I’m nervous of going WR in the first.

 

I also think we need to get a RB in to complement Gibson. We need a powerful running game. Maybe we get a reasonable contract on a vet in free agency. 
 

If not, RB in the 4th ? Or day 2 if we trade back for an extra pick or two.

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1 minute ago, Est.1974 said:

I’m nervous of going WR in the first.

 

I also think we need to get a RB in to complement Gibson. We need a powerful running game. Maybe we get a reasonable contract on a vet in free agency. 
 

If not, RB in the 4th ? Or day 2 if we trade back for an extra pick or two.

 

I think we should operate differently than the Colts.  We know what Carson could do as a passer with lesser weapons in Philly (2020) with no run game, and lesser weapons in Indy (2021) but a great run game.  Why not beef up the weapons and have an ok run game?

 

He's a great deep ball thrower, and he's also aggressive in taking shots.  He'll pass up checkdowns in favor of a chance at a big play.  Why not grab a WR who can be a viable target 20+ yards down the field?

 

P.S.  I also would like another RB to help reduce wear and tear on Gibson.  But I think adding talent at WR might help Wentz more than improving RB depth.

2 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

That would be a killer draft, sign M Williams in FA

 

If you're talking about Mike Williams, the Chargers re-signed him.  20 million a year.

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13 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

If we traded back from #11 into the mid to late 20's added a 2nd (and a future pick or a 4th or something else) ...

 

I would take Watson there. But there's a chance Williams falls. Metchie in the 2nd ... Jahan Dotson would be another guy who could be pushed down due to the guys ahead of him. But Watson has the "it" factor to me. I think he could be a monster.

I like the idea of this.  Watson could be had in the 2nd round with a trade down from the 1st, let's say with Pittsburgh and NO could be trade partners with their 2nd and 4th or 5th round picks.  We may also look to trade down in the 2nd again to recoup our 3rd round pick.  Metchie III also in the 2nd.

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6 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

I think we should operate differently than the Colts.  We know what Carson could do as a passer with lesser weapons in Philly (2020) with no run game, and lesser weapons in Indy (2021) but a great run game.  Why not beef up the weapons and have an ok run game?

 

He's a great deep ball thrower, and he's also aggressive in taking shots.  He'll pass up checkdowns in favor of a chance at a big play.  Why not grab a WR who can be a viable target 20+ yards down the field?

 

P.S.  I also would like another RB to help reduce wear and tear on Gibson.  But I think adding talent at WR might help Wentz more than improving RB depth.


I’m also looking for us to add a receiver in either FA or the draft. Plus as an aside I could see us going for Ertz. I like Valdes-Scantling in FA at the right price for receiver, he opened the field up for Rodgers and Adams in GB. 
 

However, the draft does looked stacked. Need to see what we do next week in FA.

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2 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:


I’m also looking for us to add a receiver in either FA or the draft. Plus as an aside I could see us going for Ertz. I like Valdes-Scantling in FA at the right price for receiver, he opened the field up for Rodgers and Adams in GB. 
 

However, the draft does looked stacked. Need to see what we do next week in FA.

 

We don't have money for a starting caliber FA WR.  We need to clear room to sign our future draft picks.  Then we have to swing hard at an extension for Terry McLaurin which likely raises his cap hit.

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5 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

We don't have money for a starting caliber FA WR.  We need to clear room to sign our future draft picks.  Then we have to swing hard at an extension for Terry McLaurin which likely raises his cap hit.

That Packers had far less space than us and are giving Rodgers 50mil a year, plus they have Adams on a 20mil tag. We have the ability so sign in FA.

 

I mean, most want a high price LB. Next thing the draft looks stacked at LB.

 

We do need to balance it right between FA and the draft. Interesting to see what we do.

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The first round success rate for wide receivers is ghastly and has to be worse than any other position right?  If you set a (low) bar for unqualified success at having a 9 AV season, which roughly translates to really good starter for a decent offense (not even necessarily bonafide #1 receiver), only 17 out of 40 WRs drafted in the first in the last ten years hit that bar in one season of their careers.  And even fewer of those guys got second contracts with the team that drafted them.

 

9 AV season at least once in career:

2021: Smith & Chase yes.  Bateman/Waddle/Toney no.

2020: Lamb & Jefferson yes.  Ruggs/jeudy/Raegor/Aiyuk no.

2019: Hollywood Brown yes.  Harry no.

2018: DJ Moore and Ridley yes.

2017: Corey Davis & Mike Williams yes (barely), John Ross no.

2016: Coleman/Fuller/Doctson/Treadwell God no.

2015: Cooper and DeVante Parker yes, White/Agholor/Perriman/Dorsett no.

2014: Watkins, Evans, Beckham, Cooks yes.  Benjamin no, but close.

2013: Hopkins yes.  Austin/Patterson no.

2012: Kendall Wright yes barely.  Blackmon/Floyd/Jenkins no.

 

What struck me about looking through the AV scores of these receivers?  They didn't really change year to year.  There is no big learning curve to the position and hardly any third year leap type of players in the sample.  If the receiver was going to be good and productive, you pretty much knew it immediately and the only guys who turned it around late in their rookie contracts were Corey Davis, DeVante Parker, and Mike Williams.  So either the conditions for long term success are there for these guys as rookies, or they're going to bust.

 

I don't like our odds of nailing a WR pick at 11.  But the plus side is we'll probably be choosing WR1 at that spot and those have a slightly better hit rate than the first round receivers picked after them.

 

 

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10 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

He's played 6 seasons and half of them he didn't play the full set of regular season games.

 

Doing it 2 out of the last 3 years is sugar coating reality here.

 

Reality is that he played full seasons in two of the last three seasons and only missed 4 games in the other season. You can put whatever topping on it you want - its still reality.

 

Any QB can get injured or have Covid issues (thats still going to be a thing and Wentz is not vaccinated). Heinicke missed games last season - it happens.

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18 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:


I’m also looking for us to add a receiver in either FA or the draft. Plus as an aside I could see us going for Ertz. I like Valdes-Scantling in FA at the right price for receiver, he opened the field up for Rodgers and Adams in GB. 
 

However, the draft does looked stacked. Need to see what we do next week in FA.

 

I was leery about spending high FA capital on a WR when we had $33m in cap space because we have Samuel making $12m and McLaurin about to make $20m+ ... a rookie to pair with Brown and Milne would be smart roster construction. By the time Samuel comes off the books you can pay one or both of them to stick around. Rinse and repeat.

 

OL is the area that concerns me. Let's assume we extend Flowers a few years to lower his cap hit. You're set at LT-LG-C-RT for several years. But Schweizer goes off after 2022, and only guy behind him that is a 53-man caliber is Charles. So we gotta do something there, and it would make sense to hit the position in the draft. The issue is we don't NEED a starter (we need depth) and you'd hate to spend a 1st or 2nd on an OL depth piece that isn't slated to start in 2022. The sweet spot would be in the 3rd - 5th rounds, but we have 1 pick in that range right now in the 4th. Will be interesting to see how they address that issue in the off-season.

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6 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I don't like our odds of nailing a WR pick at 11.  But the plus side is we'll probably be choosing WR1 at that spot and those have a slightly better hit rate than the first round receivers picked after them.

 

 

 

Garett Wilson should be there at #11. I would take him and not look back.

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