Election 2022 (Dems in charge of Senate. Reps take the House. Herschel Walker headed back home to ignore his children )

[visionary]

I was pretty pessimistic earlier, but not quite so much after seeing a lot of results and the numbers in important areas.  Still worried about Nevada, Arizona, and some others though.

[Momma There Goes That Man]

4 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

More confirmation

this is a pretty good sign. If this were going to be a wave election, this seat would have gotten swamped in red after the redistricting changed it. 

[TheDoyler23]

10 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I watched the debate, and found him to be uninspiring.  The only thing I found impressive about Moore is that he wasn’t Dan Cox.  That and his ads being my only exposure to him, I don’t get it - perhaps he’s just not great on the debate stage.

He was very safe in the debate, no doubt. 

 

He’s killing it in his acceptance right now. 
 

 

[Cooked Crack]

Inflation through the roof as well!

[88Comrade2000]

Dems have picked 2 governorships.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

9 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

This is not a red wave. Don’t see it. 
 

 

 

 

Landsman is only up by 5.6 points now....got cut in half.

[Fergasun]

This is not my prediction but the baseline -- I don't watch mainstream news coverage (generally read blogs, etc.) so I'm not sure how much these numbers are being discussed.  The President's party normally loses 28 House seats and 4 Senate seats on average.  

 

Thus based on average we should expect a House with GOP 241 to Dem 194 and a Senate of GOP 54 to Dem 46 (I know there are a couple of current vacant House seats).  Hard to discuss "average" without discussing gerrymandering of recent years, but this is the best i can say.    

 

I would say if the House is only GOP 235 to Dem 200 and Senate GOP 52 to Dem 48, this is a good showing for Democrats.  

But if it turns 245 to 190 and Senate GOP 56 to Dem 44... this is a good showing for Republicans.  

 

What is going to suck is that we'll see how truly "moderate" GOP has really become since 2015... if they just do unnecessary impeachment and typical obstruction, fine... but if they do government shutdown level of obstruction, every step of the way... I don't see how this won't annoy the Independent voters. 

 

 

 

[purbeast]

13 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

People are saying she wants to change the public school sex education curriculum to state that women can’t get pregnant if they do it in the shower.

LOL you serious?  Just saw she getting spanked.

[skinsmarydu]

Haven't seen anything on the MTG/Flowers race. 

[balki1867]

It looks like Georgia doesn’t even matter. Nobody is going to hit 50% so we get a do-over

[TheGreatBuzz]

1 minute ago, Fergasun said:

This is not my prediction but the baseline -- I don't watch mainstream news coverage (generally read blogs, etc.) so I'm not sure how much these numbers are being discussed.  The President's party normally loses 28 House seats and 4 Senate seats on average.  

 

Thus based on average we should expect a House with GOP 241 to Dem 194 and a Senate of GOP 54 to Dem 46 (I know there are a couple of current vacant House seats).  Hard to discuss "average" without discussing gerrymandering of recent years, but this is the best i can say.    

 

I would say if the House is only GOP 235 to Dem 200 and Senate GOP 52 to Dem 48, this is a good showing for Democrats.  

But if it turns 245 to 190 and Senate GOP 56 to Dem 44... this is a good showing for Republicans.  

 

What is going to suck is that we'll see how truly "moderate" GOP has really become since 2015... if they just do unnecessary impeachment and typical obstruction, fine... but if they do government shutdown level of obstruction, every step of the way... I don't see how this won't annoy the Independent voters. 

 

 

 

 

I feel like this election is important enough to throw out history.  Losing both house and senate is a big loss.

1 minute ago, skinsmarydu said:

Haven't seen anything on the MTG/Flowers race. 

 

I saw it already called for MTG on Twitter.

[Ball Security]

Just now, purbeast said:

LOL you serious?  Just saw she getting spanked.

Not really. Just riffing on the fact that she said she doubts a raped woman can get pregnant.

 

1 minute ago, purbeast said:

LOL you serious?  Just saw she getting spanked.

 

[just654]

1 minute ago, skinsmarydu said:

Haven't seen anything on the MTG/Flowers race. 

Called for MTG the min the polls closed 

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

2 minutes ago, skinsmarydu said:

Haven't seen anything on the MTG/Flowers race. 

Think I saw MTG won.

[skinsmarydu]

****. 

[tshile]

52 minutes ago, Destino said:

Only if Trump gets indicted and convicted.  Otherwise Trump will eat him on a debate stage.  DeSantis is a typical republican, he can’t handle a guy calling him a him a prancing dickhead with an ugly mother.  None of these Republican's used to throwing their weight around in room full of easily offended men can handle Trump.  

This is not the read I’m getting. 
 

I mean I thought the same and was told likely not gonna happen. 
 

there’s also talk of garland announcing something post election before trump declares. Not a rumor or anything just some people speculating that it may happen, since once he becomes a candidate it muddies the waters with investigations and such 

[visionary]

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

 Georgia heading for a run off. So senate  likely won’t be decided until December.

Edited November 9, 2022 by 88Comrade2000

[Cooked Crack]

1 minute ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Think I saw MTG won.

MTG won whenever voting started. This a R+28 district. The only way she can lose is in a primary.

[88Comrade2000]

Sure would be great if Johnson loses in WI.

[skinsmarydu]

2 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

 Georgia heading for a run off. So senate  likely won’t be decided until December.

I think they said December 6.

[tshile]

48 minutes ago, Simmsy said:

DeSantis can't beat Trump. Why would Trumpers vote for a knock off Trump in DeSantis when they can have the real moron in Trump? Once Trump humiliates him further (cause he will, its already begun) there won't be anything left of DeSantis to run.

Obviously speculation but my understanding is DeSantis was seen as the heir apparent - he has strong support with them. 
 

he’ll also bring big money. And a big Latino vote. 
 

if the gop makes the mistake of putting 12 candidates out there against him - sure. If they’re smart and make sure they consolidate it down to 1 serious candidate, trump won’t win. 
 

trump is not popular among conservatives that aren’t trumpers. Just because they were willing to vote for him against Hillary doesn’t mean they will vote for him against anyone. And Biden won while republicans won down ballot. 
 

it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. DeSantis pence youngkin and one or two others need to sit down and figure out how to consolidate for the good of the party. Non-trump republicans are very concerned about the damage he does to the party. 

[88Comrade2000]

Early numbers shows Hobbs with a 10 point lead with 40% counted.

[Ball Security]

Boebert is losing.  🤣

[tshile]

42 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Yeah, I didn’t think Cao had much of a chance at all.  What district are you in?  

That one. I didn’t think he had a chance either but was shocked by the early results. But. It all depends on what’s left to be counted lol. For a second it was looking like cao was over performing expectations.