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The Official ES 2021 Free Agency Thread / Tracker Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, William Jackson, LB Mayo, C Larsen WR Humphries, CB D. Roberts, KR D. Carter , LT Charles Leno, S Bobby McCain signed


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10 hours ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

Youre missing the point.  Darbys 2020 season is history.  I am shorting Darby repeating the quality of his play this year.  Id rather take another swing in free agency than overpay a guy I have low confidence in, knowing full well the next free agent swing could be a miss because Id rather spend the money on a higher confidence pkayer at another position.  Giving Darby 3/30 doesnt guarantee anything other than a cap hit.

 

Id prefer to take another swing in free agency and spend a draft pick at corner too.

 

Well seeing as you bolded and quoted the part where I said he was no guarantee to repeat... But if that's your only point then your right repeating 600 snaps, the most heis had since 2016 is indeed a tall / unlikely outcome. 

 

I think with this DL, Darby likely knows he looked better.  I'd be fine to hard ball a bit a aim for say 3/21.  Not arguing that I want to spend 10 million. 

 

Then go get a guy like Xavier Woods from the Cowboys in a 3/18, who has played slot and FS and Malik Hooker 1/2.  The versatility with Woods, Curl and Fuller hedge the bet of a less productive / more injured seasons from Darby/Hooker does happen. 

 

Most of the bounce back guys I see are slot guys.  I think with what we have the need for an outside guy makes more sense.  So while I get the idea is to get similar production for cheaper, I just don't see that player available.  I don't want to let Darby go and then have no answer next year and that makes pursing worth it.  Good news for everyone is I'm not paid to dig as deep and hopefully the fancy new FO does see that guy. 

 

 

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Well, maybe this is who we can dream of....  it even mentions a shot at the 2021 Darby...

After being worse in first 2 seasons and then out last year, I wouldn't want to bank on it.  But I might be happy to have him opposite Darby with Fuller in the slot...hmmm.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-free-agency-top-100-free-agents

89. CB Gareon Conley

A former first-round pick, Conley has had his ups and downs, grading out at 64.5 and 64.0 in his two full seasons. He missed all of the 2020 season. Conley is better in man coverage, as he’s graded in the 69th percentile in single coverage compared to just the 37th percentile in zone since entering the league. He’s also forced incompletions on 22.2% of his targets, the second-best rate in the NFL since 2017. Conley is worth a look in a man-heavy system. 

Contract Analysis: The former 2017 first-round pick of the then-Oakland Raiders was traded to the Houston Texans for a third-round pick after just two seasons. Conley is a perfect candidate to be 2021’s Ronald Darby, as he profiles very similarly — and that’s what he should be selling to potential suitors.

Prediction: Texans sign Conley for one year, $2.5 million: $1 million fully guaranteed at signing.

 

edit: https://www.giants.com/news/film-study-washington-football-team-ron-rivera-kyle-allen-chase-young

Apparently were more zone (these things I don't see as much....so based on the blurb of man vs zone abilities also not the best idea).  Although maybe we did more zone because our LBs were bad...and again I get back to I'm not the fancy new FO guy that makes these decisions, haha.

Edited by jsharrin55
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30 minutes ago, jsharrin55 said:

 

Well seeing as you bolded and quoted the part where I said he was no guarantee to repeat... But if that's your only point then your right repeating 600 snaps, the most heis had since 2016 is indeed a tall / unlikely outcome. 

 

I think with this DL, Darby likely knows he looked better.  I'd be fine to hard ball a bit a aim for say 3/21.  Not arguing that I want to spend 10 million. 

 

Then go get a guy like Xavier Woods from the Cowboys in a 3/18, who has played slot and FS and Malik Hooker 1/2.  The versatility with Woods, Curl and Fuller hedge the bet of a less productive / more injured seasons from Darby/Hooker does happen. 

 

Most of the bounce back guys I see are slot guys.  I think with what we have the need for an outside guy makes more sense.  So while I get the idea is to get similar production for cheaper, I just don't see that player available.  I don't want to let Darby go and then have no answer next year and that makes pursing worth it.  Good news for everyone is I'm not paid to dig as deep and hopefully the fancy new FO does see that guy. 

 

 

--------------------------------------

Well, maybe this is who we can dream of....  it even mentions a shot at the 2021 Darby...

After being worse in first 2 seasons and then out last year, I wouldn't want to bank on it.  But I might be happy to have him opposite Darby with Fuller in the slot...hmmm.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-free-agency-top-100-free-agents

89. CB Gareon Conley

A former first-round pick, Conley has had his ups and downs, grading out at 64.5 and 64.0 in his two full seasons. He missed all of the 2020 season. Conley is better in man coverage, as he’s graded in the 69th percentile in single coverage compared to just the 37th percentile in zone since entering the league. He’s also forced incompletions on 22.2% of his targets, the second-best rate in the NFL since 2017. Conley is worth a look in a man-heavy system. 

Contract Analysis: The former 2017 first-round pick of the then-Oakland Raiders was traded to the Houston Texans for a third-round pick after just two seasons. Conley is a perfect candidate to be 2021’s Ronald Darby, as he profiles very similarly — and that’s what he should be selling to potential suitors.

Prediction: Texans sign Conley for one year, $2.5 million: $1 million fully guaranteed at signing.

 

Well, the bad news is we play a lot of zone, which would be an issue for Conley

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Just now, method man said:

 

Well, the bad news is we play a lot of zone, which would be an issue for Conley

 

Yeah, I had edited to add that.  Guess it was after you wrote.

 

I do wonder if we did more zone because of linebacker play.  The link I put in my edit say we were near bottom in man coverage.  I wonder if that is by design or playing to strengths and weaknesses of the players...

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I believe Del Rio will (I know he has in the past) tailor his coverage schemes/calls to his personnel, and I think a press man scheme fits our pass rush better than the zone we were playing this past year a-la the Seattle defense.  Darby and Fuller were solid in this zone alignment - covering the short and intermediate routes well (Fuller did far better on the deeper routes).  Darby obviously got abused on plays the qb had time in the pocket.  I’d like to see us add a couple capable press man corners that would allow Fuller to move inside.  Of course, you need backers that can help out on the shorter/intermediate routes (I think Holcomb fits here) and a FS that can help on the deeper routes.  Probably the key to this though is an ability to stop the run up the middle.  Ideally you want your linemen doing the dirty work here, but we need that ILB that can take on, or avoid blocks and still make plays.     

Retaining Darby and addressing ILB means we can be a top D (improve on last season) with the other personnel we have (not to mention the idea of the bird in hand), but I can see them letting Darby walk - cost and risk of injury are real and serious concerns - and searching for corners capable of playing man (particularly press man).  We’ll see.

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1 hour ago, jsharrin55 said:

 

Well seeing as you bolded and quoted the part where I said he was no guarantee to repeat... But if that's your only point then your right repeating 600 snaps, the most heis had since 2016 is indeed a tall / unlikely outcome. 

 

I think with this DL, Darby likely knows he looked better.  I'd be fine to hard ball a bit a aim for say 3/21.  Not arguing that I want to spend 10 million. 

 

Yeah I mean, if we can get him cheaper, sure, I'd love to have him back.  This all started based on the premise of 3/30.  Im simply saying he doesnt derserve that amount and I would let him walk rather than overpay.  If we can get for 60% of that, awesome, sign him up.

 

I get that youre saying hes not gauranteed to repeat snaps/production.  And my point is that I agree, its a tall order, so if its already a gamble, id rather gamble less money on that position and direct those dollars somewhere that I have a higher confidence level in the return im getting.

 

For example, if its Darby and Curtis Samuel versus Cornerback X and Allen Robinson, I want the Robinson side easily.  And before anyone jumps on it, lets not get bogged down in some Samuel vs Robinson debate.  The point is to make salary cap bets based confidence levels.

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38 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

Yeah I mean, if we can get him cheaper, sure, I'd love to have him back.  This all started based on the premise of 3/30.  Im simply saying he doesnt derserve that amount and I would let him walk rather than overpay.  If we can get for 60% of that, awesome, sign him up.

 

I get that youre saying hes not gauranteed to repeat snaps/production.  And my point is that I agree, its a tall order, so if its already a gamble, id rather gamble less money on that position and direct those dollars somewhere that I have a higher confidence level in the return im getting.

 

For example, if its Darby and Curtis Samuel versus Cornerback X and Allen Robinson, I want the Robinson side easily.  And before anyone jumps on it, lets not get bogged down in some Samuel vs Robinson debate.  The point is to make salary cap bets based confidence levels.

 

Well you're at drop in production and I'm stuck at who is X.  So we can let it die here since neither is really right or wrong (IMO).  I truly hope the FO can find Darby 2 or sign Darby to a lesser deal.

 

I'd love a super bowl team at the cap floor with 53 player X's (over exaggeration of the point).  But player X isn't always available and every team wants him too.  I know I'm limited in my scouting and view of all the FA CBs (well all the FAs), but looking I can't find Player X.  If they player doesn't exist or goes to any other team, sign me up for Darby.  That's where I'm at, even at 10 mill.  Keep the D strong.

Edited by jsharrin55
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10 minutes ago, jsharrin55 said:

 

Well you're at drop in production and I'm stuck at who is X.  So we can let it die here since neither is really right or wrong (IMO).  I truly hope the FO can find Darby 2 or sign Darby to a lesser deal.

 

I'd love a super bowl team at the cap floor with 53 player X's (over exaggeration of the point).  But player X isn't always available and every team wants him too.  I know I'm limited in my scouting and view of all the FA CBs (well all the FAs), but looking I can't find Player X.  If they player doesn't exist or goes to any other team, sign me up for Darby.  That's where I'm at, even at 10 mill.  Keep the D strong.

 

I hear ya.  Im not sifting through tape on all the available cornerbacks and I doubt many on here are or would be really know what theyre seeing anyway.  Ill just trust the FO to do the due diligence.  This is really more of a conversation about roster construction than anything.  Cornerback play varies wildly from year to year and is probably the hardest position to evaluate in my view, which only reinforces where I draw the salary line on a guy like Darby.

 

Also, I know you were exagerrating to make the point, but I definitely want to spend the money somewhere.  I want real difference makers because there is a trickle down affect to the rest of the roster as we saw with adding Chase, for example.  My preferred free aegency approach is to either sign high end and/or reliable talent, or to look for undervalued gems.  I really hate those mediumish signings.  They tend to result in overpaying or disappointing performance the most.

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Ill also add Id be much more inclined to give a 1/10 contract and see if he can do it again.  Its just that at 3/30 I dont see us heading into the last year of the deal being excited to have him at that price.  I could get behind a 1 year deal but im sure the player would prefer to have more security.  

 

 

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Listened to an interview with Ron who said that he is a big fan of "prove-it" deals. He likes to get guys who are coming up or guys who are hungry to prove others wrong. That said, he said he hoped to re-sign a bunch of last year's prove-it guys. Not sure if that includes Darby, but Darby definitely made plays at times. I thought our secondary was good and not great.

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24 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

There’s a hell of a lot of free agent CBs hitting the market. Darby at 6-7mil per year seems  reasonable to me. Not sure he’d be happy taking that though, not initially anyway.

 

Many have experience from slot, but who knows who would do well at both.

 

36 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

Ill also add Id be much more inclined to give a 1/10 contract and see if he can do it again.  Its just that at 3/30 I dont see us heading into the last year of the deal being excited to have him at that price.  I could get behind a 1 year deal but im sure the player would prefer to have more security.  

 

 

To use a Darby comparable on sportrac, see deal below.  (Yes I switched back to over the cap for the picture....) 

 

Say it was 3/30 with a 6 mill signing bonus

 

2021 Darby 3mill base, 2 mill SB (prorated value 6 mill SB, no roster bonus), 1 mill per game bonus (Cap 6)

2022 8 base, 2 Prorated SB, 1 mill per game bonus (11 mill)

2023 10, 2, 1 (13 mill) or cut and have 2 mill dead money. 

 

If 2021 was that bad it'd be 4 mill dead, but overall still 1/10 (3 mill base + 6 mill SB accelerated forward and max 1 mill game bonus). 

 

Career earnings are 13 mill, so guaranteeing 9 mill year 1 might be enough to get him to be at that 8 mill AAV.  Base salary value year 2/3 would  drop 3 mill each and 8 and 10 mill (obviously better long term), but I think you can structure like this and plan on it basically being 1/10 with 2 options.

 

image.png.567c799efa3197e9fae2dda3be3885a9.png

Edited by jsharrin55
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12 minutes ago, jsharrin55 said:

 

 

 

Many have experience from slot, but who knows who would do well at both.

 

To use a Darby comparable on sportrac, see deal below.  (Yes I switched back to over the cap for the picture....) 

 

Say it was 3/30 with a 6 mill signing bonus

 

2021 Darby 3mill base, 2 mill SB (prorated value 6 mill SB, no roster bonus), 1 mill per game bonus (Cap 6)

2022 8 base, 2 Prorated SB, 1 mill per game bonus (11 mill)

2023 10, 2, 1 (13 mill) or cut and have 2 mill dead money. 

 

If 2021 was that bad it'd be 4 mill dead, but overall still 1/10 (3 mill base + 6 mill SB accelerated forward and max 1 mill game bonus). 

 

Career earnings are 13 mill, so guaranteeing 9 mill year 1 might be enough to get him to be at that 8 mill AAV.  Base salary value year 2/3 would  drop 3 mill each and 8 and 10 mill (obviously better long term), but I think you can structure like this and plan on it basically being 1/10 with 2 options.

 

image.png.567c799efa3197e9fae2dda3be3885a9.png

 

That structure is closer to what I think hes worth.  Still a tad high though.  Honestly I think his value should be in the 6-7m annual range.  Having outs in both years does make it more palatable.  Not sure how realistic it is.

 

This contract would be somewhere in between "yes please" and "absolutely not" for me...but closer to the latter.  

 

 

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Something very important is that, when signing bargain guys, the FO needs to sign them up for 2 or 3 years if possible. If the cap goes back to normal in 2022, it will be a total players' market as every team in the league will have double digit millions of cap space to spend. I see a TON of guys getting overpaid then

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31 minutes ago, method man said:

For those looking at the CB market, it is loaded with options this offseason, most of them coming off down years. It is definitely a position I hope our secondary coach digs into with the scouting staff to identify buy low candidates. With Moreau likely leaving, we'll need at least a new no. 4 CB anyway. 

 

2021 NFL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac


Can you see Mayhew viewing any from SF as a fit ?

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1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:


Can you see Mayhew viewing any from SF as a fit ?

 

Sherman is the obvious answer but Verrett had a big year for them - issue is that he is always hurt.  Witherspoon was their backup but graded really well with PFF when he got to play.

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11 minutes ago, method man said:

 

Sherman is the obvious answer but Verrett had a big year for them - issue is that he is always hurt.  Witherspoon was their backup but graded really well with PFF when he got to play.

 

Varett was so good when healthy his first two seasons.  I worry that injuries have taken their toll and he is washed.  He was looking like a legit lockdown corner prior though.  He was playing at a near All-Pro level.

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13 minutes ago, method man said:

 

Sherman is the obvious answer but Verrett had a big year for them - issue is that he is always hurt.  Witherspoon was their backup but graded really well with PFF when he got to play.


Verrett and Witherspoon are the two for me. I like the latter in terms of age and potential value. Hopefully we can find a 2021 version of Darby at that 3-4mil contract range.

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39 minutes ago, jsharrin55 said:

 

Trent, Compton, Reed and Bergstrom...3 being lineman.  Some coaches really do like certain guys/types.

 

Quite a few CBs here, but many IDK most


WR Kendrick Bourne is another to keep an eye on, depending on how we intend to address that position.

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2 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:


WR Kendrick Bourne is another to keep an eye on, depending on how we intend to address that position.

I’d put him in a group with Isiah McKenzie and John Ross as speedsters who could be a second FA-WR option if the price is right.  Don’t want these guys at Paul Richardson prices.

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9 minutes ago, lovemaskins said:

Do we bring Trent back????? 

No!  Eff him

They are going to need his replacement though.

If pick 19 is traded away for QB there may not be a decent option at 51.

That would mean they may need to address this position through FA as well as a few other positions

They really need to bring in at least one decent young starter to the Oline...not just scrubs

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trade for stafford with the first. sign Allen robinson and a MLB and a mid level/high upside budget corner.  draft Toney for the slot with the 2nd and another running back with one of the 3rds. Maybe an LT with the other.  THis would be my dream scenario. 

 

Toney and A ROB are two perfect pieces for this offense.  Toney is truly unbelievable in space and will be a deadly weapon in the NFL>  A rob is the only elite talent available in WR FA.    Put another RB and some OL depth in this group and we are really looking good even if we dont get stafford. 

 

Edited by CurseReversed
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  • Riggo-toni changed the title to The Official ES 2021 Free Agency Thread / Tracker Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, William Jackson, LB Mayo, C Larsen WR Humphries, CB D. Roberts, KR D. Carter , LT Charles Leno, S Bobby McCain signed

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