Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Skinsinparadise]

25 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

It hasn't really happened, but to get close as possible in terms of trades for starting QBs: Jay Cutler who did not work for Chicago, Carson Palmer who did not work for Oakland, Matt Cassel who did not work for Kansas City, Daunte Culpeper did not work for Miami, Drew Bledsoe did not work for Buffalo.

 

Matt Cassel, really?   😀 Those weren't even remotely top 5 QBs in their prime.  Culpepper?  He came off of an injury and a 2 INT to 1 TD ratio season.  Carson Palmer was 34 and no where close to 27 or under and he wasn't close to being a top 5 QB then.  If we are going to go that low, why not  throw in Brunell?  Jay Cutler is the only one that is slightly within shouting distance but his turnover habits,18 INTs that season, didn't scream top 5 QB back then.  He was just a dude with a lot of raw talent who never seemed to put things together.  

 

If these guys are relevant to the conversation on Watson, I'd not only hate the idea of trading for him, I'd think its insane. 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Matt Cassel, really?   😀 Those weren't even remotely top 5 QBs in their prime.  Culpepper?  He came off of an injury and a 2 INT to 1 TD ratio season.  Carson Palmer was 34 and no where close to 27 or under and he wasn't close to being a top 5 QB then.  If we are going to go that low, why not  throw in Brunell?  Jay Cutler is the only one that is slightly within shouting distance but his turnover habits,18 INTs that season, didn't scream top 5 QB back then.  He was just a dude with a lot of raw talent who never seemed to put things together.  

 

If these guys are relevant to the conversation on Watson, I'd not only hate the idea of trading for him, I'd think its insane. 

 

Did you miss the first part of the post when I said "it hasn't really happened"?

[kingdaddy]

How bout we all just agree to sign Fitzmagic, Heinicke and Allen and see where it takes us? If nothing else it allows us to spend all of our money and draft picks everywhere else on the roster and we have 3 QB options. all of whom can play, for less than 18 mil combined....and boy would it be fun. I would love going into Dallas with Fitzmagic against their awful defense....

This is a short term plan to see what shakes out while we keep searching for the future QB so don't kill me for suggesting this. 

[Skinsinparadise]

39 minutes ago, KDawg said:

There isn’t one. Most top end elite QBs under 27 don’t get traded. If they do... something is wrong.

 

 

Yep that's my point.

 

39 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

The Texans are a mess. 
 

That much is true.

 

As is that Watson is great in the community and an elite talent. 

 

Yep.

 

39 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

But his issue with not being in the convo about the GM and his stance after signing a MASSIVE contract gives me a tiny bit of concern.

 

 

Reading what I have about it, I am not concerned, it looks like he's dealt with a ton of nonsense and people there have lied to him.  He's a big time leader and good locker room guy at least based on reputation.

 

39 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Moreso, I don’t think we’re as close as some here think we are. I think we CAN be. But not if we give up a ton of major assets in cap and draft picks. 
 

 

I recall from the off season  you making the point on the draft thread that the Qb spot is overplayed at times. And it isn't the be all and end all.  I recall you even arguing at one point for Sewell and sticking to O line, etc.  And hyping that spot versus QB.  I am not saying you are wrong.  It's an opinion.  But then in the FA thread recently I noticed you are pushing QB.  So I am not quite sure where you are as to the value of the QB?  I previously pegged your take is you think its overplayed.

 

My take on the QB spot is similar to the PFF/Football Outsider guys.  I think an elite QB almost guarantees relevancy for a long time.   And if you don't have one, your roster building has to be superb to work around that deficiency.  It's almost an axiom for some that a franchise QB can mask many weaknesses.  It's not that I think you can win with a crap team and an elite QB.  But I do think you can win with an average roster and an elite QB.  

 

My tangent on this point is that I think we have two different default positions on the QB spot so our intensity on it will natrually go in different directions.  Though if i am wrong on that please correct me.  😀

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yep that's my point.

 

 

Yep.

 

 

Reading what I have about it, I am not concerned, it looks like he's dealt with a ton of nonsense and people there have lied to him.  He's a big time leader and good locker room guy at least based on reputation.

 

 

I recall from the off season  you making the point on the draft thread that the Qb spot is overplayed at times. And it isn't the be all and end all.  I recall you even arguing at one point for Sewell and sticking to O line, etc.  And hyping that spot versus QB.  I am not saying you are wrong.  It's an opinion.  But then in the FA thread recently I noticed you are pushing QB.  So I aqm not quite sure where you are as to the value of the QB?  I previous pegged your take is you think its overplayed.

 

My take on the QB spot is similar to the PFF/Football Outsider guys.  I think an elite QB almost guarantees relevancy for a long time.   And if you don't have one, your roster building has to be superb to work around that deficiency.  It's almost an axiom for some that a franchise QB can mask many weaknesses.  It's not that I think you can win with a crap team and an elite QB.  But I do think you can win with an average roster and an elite QB.  

 

My tangent on this point is that I think we have two different default positions on the QB spot so our intensity on it will natrually go in different directions.  Though if i am wrong on that please correct me.  😀

 

Where am I pushing QB? I said QB is a priority. I said nothing in regards to forcing it. I’ve been nothing but consistent with my takes. OL > QB if you’re going to force the QB by massive trade. 
 

I have been SUPER consistent that you don’t trade your assets on a rebuilding team.

 

I appreciate your attempt to sabotage my credibility here, but it failed. 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

How bout we all just agree to sign Fitzmagic, Heinicke and Allen and see where it takes us? If nothing else it allows us to spend all of our money and draft picks everywhere else on the roster and we have 3 QB options. all of whom can play, for less than 18 mil combined....and boy would it be fun. I would love going into Dallas with Fitzmagic against their awful defense....

This is a short term plan to see what shakes out while we keep searching for the future QB so don't kill me for suggesting this. 

 

I think we end up doing something like that by default because the sexier options will not materalize.  But lol, no one is killing anyone for a take.  It's just football, all in fun. 

 

Among the FA options, Fitzpatrick might be my favorite option.  i haven't decided yet though. 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Where am I pushing QB? I said QB is a priority. I said nothing in regards to forcing it. I’ve been nothing but consistent with my takes. OL > QB if you’re going to force the QB by massive trade. 
 

I have been SUPER consistent that you don’t trade your assets on a rebuilding team.

 

I appreciate your attempt to sabotage my credibility here, but it failed. 

 

I wasn't trying to sabtoage your credibility. 😀  When we were talking WR, etc, on that FA thread you said something to the effect of you want to save money for QB.  

 

To say it more directly I was saying I don't see you are a dude who thinks QB is as big of a deal as others but I don't want to mislabel you on that in case I am wrong.  That was my way if anything to be polite.  But since you took it as a shot, than I gather I totally botched that post.  🙄  

Edited January 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[CapsSkins]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think we end up doing something like that by default because the sexier options will not materalize.  But lol, no one is killing anyone for a take.  It's just football, all in fun. 

 

Among the FA options, Fitzpatrick might be my favorite option.  i haven't decided yet though. 

 

Heinicke/Fitzpatrick/Allen with Lavonte David, Allen Robinson, Aaron Jones, Brandon Scherff, Ronald Darby & Pick 19 is the way.  

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I wasn't trying to sabtoage your credibility. 😀  When we were talking WR, etc, on that FA thread you said something to the effect of you want to save money for QB.  

 

To say it more directly I was saying I don't see you are a dude who thinks QB is as big of a deal as others but I don't want to mislabel you on that in case I am wrong.  That was my way if anything to be polite.  But since you took it as a shot, than I gather I totally botched that post.  🙄  

QB is a priority and a position that needs to be addressed. Unfortunately, it may not happen in one offseason. So resources need to be available to address it for both the short and long term. 
 

I’m hopeful that we will find ourselves a franchise QB in the next few years. 
 

But it’s priority is offseason spanning, not just this one. 
 

And yes, I do think that money spent on a QB>WR>RB. 
 

I trust Rivera. If he does something that I think is a bad decision... I’m probably the one in the wrong. So if he goes and gets a guy for a crazy trade... I’ll support it. I see the reason people love Stafford and Watson. Completely. 
 

I don’t buy that they help us as much as building a roster first and then making a big move.

 

Now is not the time in my opinion. And it’s just mine. I understand that. But the team is always greater than one player. 

[kingdaddy]

9 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Heinicke/Fitzpatrick/Allen with Lavonte David, Allen Robinson, Aaron Jones, Brandon Scherff, Ronald Darby & Pick 19 is the way.  

Love how you put Heinicke first here....he has won a lot of hearts. I'd name Fitz the starter in this group and let the other two duke it out in practice. 

[CapsSkins]

Just now, kingdaddy said:

Love how you put Heinicke first here....he has won a lot of hearts. I'd name Fitz the starter in this group and let the other two duke it out in practice. 

 

Haha. Why not let the 3 compete for the job in Training Camp and let the best man win? Even if it's Kyle Allen. 

[kingdaddy]

1 minute ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Haha. Why not let the 3 compete for the job in Training Camp and let the best man win? Even if it's Kyle Allen. 

After hearing RR's comments this week I'm pretty sure that's what would happen. RR said he regrets not having a QB competition in camp this past season. 

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

 

In no particular order: Rivers, Fitzpatrick, Stafford pending trade availability + price, Mariota pending trade availability, Jimmy G pending SF's plans, Minshew pending trade availability + price, Dalton, Tyrod, plus seeing what Heinicke/Allen can give you. Also drafting a rookie who could be an option in 2022 or 2023.

 

Also keep in mind in two years Aaron Rodgers will likely be available for trade at 40 years old. That's 5 years of Rodgers as an option on the table if you can find a stopgap between now and then. 

 

 

Rivers: Meh. He has what...1, maybe 2 years of play left in him? Watching him play this season he really doesn't have much gas left in the tank.

Fitzpatrick: Even more meh. 38 year old who's turnover prone and makes good and baffling plays with equal regularity.

Stafford: I agree. Recent injuries could be a concern but if that checks out, I'd trade our 1st for him.

Mariota: Basically a bust at #2 overall. Completely mediocre QB.

Jimmy G: Somehow even more mediocre than Mariota.

Dalton: Yet another 100% mediocre QB.

Tyrod: Meh. Only reason he's decent is his ability to run. He's not much of passer. I guess if he's cheap I might consider kicking the tires.

 

IMO outside of Stafford none of those guys would be a big upgrade over Heinicke/Allen. An upgrade, but not much of one. And most of them would cost much more in cap space. 

 

If we keep going with mediocre QBs we're going to keep having a mediocre team. Our defense will keep us in more games but our offense will remain stagnant. We'll be one of those teams that hovers around 8-8 most years and every once in a while might sneak into the playoffs if our division sucks ass. But we'll never be a perennial contender without a good QB.

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

If we keep going with mediocre QBs we're going to keep having a mediocre team. Our defense will keep us in more games but our offense will remain stagnant. We'll be one of those teams that hovers around 8-8 most years and every once in a while might sneak into the playoffs if our division sucks ass. But we'll never be a perennial contender without a good QB.

 

Not if you use your assets to get guys like Lavonte David and Allen Robinson, draft well, re-sign our own guys, etc. Maybe Heinicke/Allen/Mariota can ball out collectively.

 

Plus remember, after 2022 we can probably get Aaron Rodgers at a cap hit under $30M. Tell me you don't want 5 years of Rodgers under a $30M cap hit!

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Not if you use your assets to get guys like Lavonte David and Allen Robinson, draft well, re-sign our own guys, etc. Maybe Heinicke/Allen/Mariota can ball out collectively.

 

Plus remember, after 2022 we can probably get Aaron Rodgers at a cap hit under $30M. Tell me you don't want 5 years of Rodgers under a $30M cap hit!

 

There's simply no proof of this historically. Perennial contenders have good QBs. You can have tons of great pass catchers but if you don't have a good QB to consistently get them the ball it won't matter much. 

 

IMO it's pure fantasy to try and bank on the idea that Heinicke/Allen/Mariota are somehow going to suddenly become franchise QBs. 

 

And I also don't think we should assume that a 40 year old Rodgers is necessarily going to be the same as a 40 year old Brady. Brady is a one-off IMO. Assuming that at 40 years old Rodgers is going to give us another 5 is a pipe dream methinks.

[TheGoodBits]

How did Philip Rivers do this year? Colts made the playoffs... I assume decent? He’s definitely getting up there, but so was Peyton Manning when he took a Broncos team with a stacked defense and finally put them over the top. 
 

adding- kind of funny idea but we could actually maintain a decent run of competitive teams by continuing to invest in other areas of the team and signing a rotation of aging but still good QBs. They don’t become available *that* often but you had Rivers and Brady last year, Rivers again this year, Rodgers in a couple years... 

Edited January 17, 2021 by skinsfan_1215

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

There's simply no proof of this historically. Perennial contenders have good QBs. You can have tons of great pass catchers but if you don't have a good QB to consistently get them the ball it won't matter much. 

 

IMO it's pure fantasy to try and bank on the idea that Heinicke/Allen/Mariota are somehow going to suddenly become franchise QBs. 

 

And I also don't think we should assume that a 40 year old Rodgers is necessarily going to be the same as a 40 year old Brady. Brady is a one-off IMO. Assuming that at 40 years old Rodgers is going to give us another 5 is a pipe dream methinks.

 

Look at Tannehill. Rivers looked good this year. You can get a guy to outperform their salary in the right circumstances. Foles another example of this, Keenum in Minnesota that one year. 

 

Rodgers looks as good as he's ever looked this year at 37. Brady is an outlier but Rodgers is just as much of an outlier IMO.

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by CapsSkins

[mistertim]

26 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Look at Tannehill. Rivers looked good this year. You can get a guy to outperform their salary in the right circumstances. Foles another example of this, Keenum in Minnesota that one year. 

 

Rodgers looks as good as he's ever looked this year at 37. Brady is an outlier but Rodgers is just as much of an outlier IMO.

 

 

Again, you're banking on getting a mediocre player and hoping they "outperform their salary".

 

It's a longshot at best. And throwing out Tannehill is kinda like saying that everyone should buy lottery tickets as a sound investment strategy because someone you know won some money once doing it.

 

And if Rodgers is as good at 40 as he is at 37 why would GB want to move on from him? And if GB for some unknown reason decided to trade him after 2022 they'd want a HAUL for him if he was still playing at an elite level. And on top of that Rodgers would want another big contract. 

 

The dream of getting Rodgers on the cheap after 2022 is silly UNLESS he's shown a marked decrease in his play. In which case you probably wouldn't want him anyway unless it was for a year or two.

[CapsSkins]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Again, you're banking on getting a mediocre player and hoping they "outperform their salary".

 

It's a longshot at best. And throwing out Tannehill is kinda like saying that everyone should buy lottery tickets as a sound investment strategy because someone you know won some money once doing it.

 

And if Rodgers is as good at 40 as he is at 37 why would GB want to move on from him? And if GB for some unknown reason decided to trade him after 2022 they'd want a HAUL for him if he was still playing at an elite level. And on top of that Rodgers would want another big contract. 

 

The dream of getting Rodgers on the cheap after 2022 is silly UNLESS he's shown a marked decrease in his play. In which case you probably wouldn't want him anyway unless it was for a year or two.

 

It's not a longshot because it's easier to outperform your salary if you have a lower salary. This team as constructed does not need a top 5 QB to have success, just a top 16 QB. Several options there.

 

And GB would move on because they drafted a 1st round QB of the future and they are not going to let him rot away for his whole rookie deal when Aaron is 40. Rodgers meanwhile would not command some huge haul because again, he's 40. You trade for Rodgers at 40 not because he'll be a top 5 QB at that point - Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar, etc will be better overall players. But because he'll give you very good to great QB play and Hall of Fame leadership for less than $30-35M/yr. It's like what the Alex Smith trade should have accomplished, but Alex obviously isn't near the player Aaron is. 

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

It's not a longshot because it's easier to outperform your salary if you have a lower salary. This team as constructed does not need a top 5 QB to have success, just a top 16 QB. Several options there.

 

And GB would move on because they drafted a 1st round QB of the future and they are not going to let him rot away for his whole rookie deal when Aaron is 40. Rodgers meanwhile would not command some huge haul because again, he's 40. You trade for Rodgers at 40 not because he'll be a top 5 QB at that point - Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar, etc will be better overall players. But because he'll give you very good to great QB play and Hall of Fame leadership for less than $30-35M/yr. It's like what the Alex Smith trade should have accomplished, but Alex obviously isn't near the player Aaron is. 

 

There's absolutely no reason to believe that Heinicke/Allen/Mariota are going to suddenly become top 16 QBs after years of being mediocre. You're basically just going on a hope and a prayer. The fact that Tannehill managed to suddenly become really good after being mediocre doesn't mean that all of the dozens of other mediocre QBs around the NFL are going to do the same thing.

 

So yes. It's a longshot. 

 

And I wouldn't trade for a 40 year old QB. Brady is a complete one-off anomaly. Best case we get 2 decent years out of Rodgers would be my assumption. And you'd probably need to give up 2 1sts to get him from GB, especially if he's still playing really well. There will be a big market for him. And he'll almost surely also demand a new contract from his new team. 

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

There's absolutely no reason to believe that Heinicke/Allen/Mariota are going to suddenly become top 16 QBs after years of being mediocre. You're basically just going on a hope and a prayer. The fact that Tannehill managed to suddenly become really good after being mediocre doesn't mean that all of the dozens of other mediocre QBs around the NFL are going to do the same thing.

 

So yes. It's a longshot. 

 

And I wouldn't trade for a 40 year old QB. Brady is a complete one-off anomaly. Best case we get 2 decent years out of Rodgers would be my assumption. And you'd probably need to give up 2 1sts to get him from GB, especially if he's still playing really well. There will be a big market for him. And he'll almost surely also demand a new contract from his new team. 

 

You're entited to your opinion but I think you're way off on the risk assessment and I think you're way off on the asking price for a 40 year old Rodgers. Two firsts for a 40 year old that people know GB is looking to move is insane. Whatevs, let's see what happens.

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

You're entited to your opinion but I think you're way off on the risk assessment and I think you're way off on the asking price for a 40 year old Rodgers. Two firsts for a 40 year old that people know GB is looking to move is insane. Whatevs, let's see what happens.

 

History agrees with me. Can you give me a list of completely mediocre QBs who went to a different team and suddenly became good? And not just became good for one season...became consistently a top 10 or top 15 QB. Tannehill is basically it.

 

And the market will dictate what Rodgers gets. If he's still a top 5 QB after the 2022 season then someone will 100% pony up some picks for him in the hopes that he'll be like Brady and will still be great well into his 40s.

Edited January 17, 2021 by mistertim

[CapsSkins]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

History agrees with me. Can you give me a list of completely mediocre QBs who went to a different team and suddenly became good? And not just became good for one season...became consistently a top 10 or top 15 QB. Tannehill is basically it.

 

Could I? Maybe, I haven't looked into it. Will I? No bc that sounds like a lot of effort and you're not my boss. 😂 You clearly are pretty empathic in where you stand so fine, we don't have to agree. Let's see what happens!

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Could I? Maybe, I haven't looked into it. Will I? No bc that sounds like a lot of effort and you're not my boss. 😂 You clearly are pretty empathic in where you stand so fine, we don't have to agree. Let's see what happens!

 

The only thing I'm emphatic about is people being realistic about what we're likely going to get out of mediocre talent at QB. If we go that route we're basically hoping that our defense can help us win games and/or that a mediocre retread QB from another team or one of our 2 UDFA guys suddenly have a light turn on and become top 15 QBs.

 

If we go the mediocre QB route, that's ok. But let's be realistic about where that likely puts us as a team, which would be...mediocre. Our D will likely help us but we'll still struggle to generate much offense. We're certainly unlikely to be a perennial SB contender.

[BraveWarrior]

1 hour ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Not if you use your assets to get guys like Lavonte David and Allen Robinson, draft well, re-sign our own guys, etc. Maybe Heinicke/Allen/Mariota can ball out collectively.

 

 

Not sure what "ball out" means, but if it means "take his team to the Superbowl" I'll have to disagree with you. I don't see any of those guys getting to the Superbowl playing for any team.