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The "Re-Opening" the Economy Thread


kfrankie

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20 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

The stock market is insane!  NKLA motors ran to the moon today!

 

We are going to see a massive increase in the wealth gap in this year because of this market. It makes zero sense what is happening for most of the market. I get playing the long game for some of this, but a lot is super computer/massive amounts of money moving in and our of holdings and making a killing. 

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5 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

We are going to see a massive increase in the wealth gap in this year because of this market. It makes zero sense what is happening for most of the market. I get playing the long game for some of this, but a lot is super computer/massive amounts of money moving in and our of holdings and making a killing. 

I made my paycheck in 1 day today. It is nuts.  I am basically making the same amount that I would at my regular job sitting at home doing this.  Look at Htz, they are bankrupt and people and volume is driving this price insane. 

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17 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

I made my paycheck in 1 day today. It is nuts.  I am basically making the same amount that I would at my regular job sitting at home doing this.  Look at Htz, they are bankrupt and people and volume is driving this price insane. 

 

Hertz makes less than zero sense. Investors either don't care about covid implications this year or they are naive to them.

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2 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

Hertz makes less than zero sense. Investors either don't care about covid implications this year or they are naive to them.

Well I just learned about the penny pumper community. They are a lot of bad investors tricking people to buy stocks and helping artificially raising the prices of stocks. 

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43 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

Well I just learned about the penny pumper community. They are a lot of bad investors tricking people to buy stocks and helping artificially raising the prices of stocks. 

 

If you just learned about "pump and dump" then I'd strongly suggest you start reading about the dangers of day trading before you keep doing what you're apparently doing, so at least you know all of the risks involved.

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There were headlines today that indicated that the US entered recession in February. I know that even before the virus, a fair amount of economists were calling for an impending recession. And we really didn't start shutting down due to the virus until mid-March. So did we enter recession in February because China was slowing down before us?  And what does this mean for the future regarding unemployment and the markets? You would have to assume that the violent plunge down followed by the quick surge up in the markets has to be pretty much exclusively virus-related and anticipation of reemployment of many of the people without jobs right now.

 

I guess a shorter version of my question would be "when does the REAL recession take place?"

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10 minutes ago, hail2skins said:

 

I guess a shorter version of my question would be "when does the REAL recession take place?"

 

Recessions are declared by the NBER. They say the PEAK from which the recession followed happened in February. This is the report where they explain it in more detail than you probably want.

 

 https://m.nber.org/cycles/june2020.html

 

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37 minutes ago, techboy said:

 

If you just learned about "pump and dump" then I'd strongly suggest you start reading about the dangers of day trading before you keep doing what you're apparently doing, so at least you know all of the risks involved.

I knew about it but never saw it action and its more frequent than ever now with Robinhood. I'm basically playing a lot of rebound covid stocks into strong American companies with good balance sheets and who have liquid cash.

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19 hours ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

If this is true...does it change anyone's opinion on re-opening things? 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html?__source=twitter|main

 

Basically...if you feel sick, stay at home. Otherwise live your life!

 

My immediate response to this was that there's a real danger here of believing this over other data (like @bcl05 talking about presentation he got at Mayo Clinic showing that peak viral shedding happens the day BEFORE symptoms) just because we want it to be true, so I was very curious to see what Dr. Gottleib had to say this morning. The video is below, but the short version is that he said that their conclusions are premature and their data doesn't come close to supporting their statement. He specifically referenced the fact that asymptomatic people have large amounts of viral shedding, and said we'd need much better studies to draw any conclusions. On that note, he also seemed pretty frustrated that we don't already have such studies... Video below, but the short version:

 

Pump the brakes. 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/videos/former-fda-chief-gottlieb-whos-conclusion-on-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-is-premature/vp-BB15f0ZS

Edited by techboy
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This study is getting a lot of talk, and not a lot of scrutiny. 

 

The data appears to imply that people who are infected and REMAIN asymptomatic do not contribute significantly to the spread of this virus.  This is a retrospective analysis, with the benefit of hindsight.  This does not say the same thing about people who are presymptomatic, meaning those who are shedding significant amount of virus before the start of symptoms, but do go on to develop symptoms.  There is a lot of data suggesting significant viral shedding (with high infectivity) in the 24-48 hours before symptom onset.  

 

Since we have no way of knowing who, among the newly infected, will ultimately fall into the symptomatic or asymptomatic category, this study should not, in any way, change our approach. 

Edited by bcl05
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6 minutes ago, bcl05 said:

Since we have no way of knowing who, among the newly infected, will ultimately fall into the symptomatic or asymptomatic category, this study should not, in any way, change our approach. 

 

I like not this news! Bring me some other news!

 

 

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39 minutes ago, techboy said:

 

My immediate response to this was that there's a real danger here of believing this over other data (like @bcl05 talking about presentation he got at Mayo Clinic showing that peak viral shedding happens the day BEFORE symptoms) just because we want it to be true, so I was very curious to see what Dr. Gottleib had to say this morning. The video is below, but the short version is that he said that their conclusions are premature and their data doesn't come close to supporting their statement. He specifically referenced the fact that asymptomatic people have large amounts of viral shedding, and said we'd need much better studies to draw any conclusions. On that note, he also seemed pretty frustrated that we don't already have such studies... Video below, but the short version:

 

Pump the breaks. 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/videos/former-fda-chief-gottlieb-whos-conclusion-on-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-is-premature/vp-BB15f0ZS

 

If it's proven to be incorrect, that's one thing. What I'm asking though...if it's proven correct, will that mean that we essentially shut down a country for 3 months on incorrect information? 

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4 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

If it's proven to be incorrect, that's one thing. What I'm asking though...if it's proven correct, will that mean that we essentially shut down a country for 3 months on incorrect information? 

 

No.  

 

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6 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

If it's proven to be incorrect, that's one thing. What I'm asking though...if it's proven correct, will that mean that we essentially shut down a country for 3 months on incorrect information? 

 

There are still bits and pieces of conflicting and/or inconclusive information coming out.  Hard to say in hindsight that they should have just let everything roll given all the unknowns, no matter what comes out down the road.

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13 hours ago, skinfan2k said:

Well I just learned about the penny pumper community. They are a lot of bad investors tricking people to buy stocks and helping artificially raising the prices of stocks. 

Typically they aren't just bad investors, they know exactly what they are doing.

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28 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

If it's proven to be incorrect, that's one thing. What I'm asking though...if it's proven correct, will that mean that we essentially shut down a country for 3 months on incorrect information? 

 

Sweden says no.

 

*Edit* https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-07/sweden-s-pm-is-rebuked-as-covid-deaths-ignite-political-anger

 

"But at 4,694 deaths as of Monday, Sweden’s Covid mortality rate is now among the highest per capita in the world, and many times higher than in the other Scandinavian countries."

 

Edited by techboy
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1 hour ago, bcl05 said:

Since we have no way of knowing who, among the newly infected, will ultimately fall into the symptomatic or asymptomatic category, this study should not, in any way, change our approach. 


The WHO has a serious messaging problem. They’ve been blowing it from the start of the pandemic. It was well established a while ago that presymptomatic people can infect others, it was evident in epidemiological data. 
 

The information they released assumed that the general public will differentiate between pre and asymptomatic people. Just bad scientific communication all around.

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3 minutes ago, techboy said:

 

Sweden says no.

OK. 

 

I just wonder if we could have targeted the "stay at home" orders more strategically. It could have resulted in more businesses staying open, fewer jobs being lost, and asking people to stay home if they fell ill. We still could have checked temps, etc. at businesses to limit the exposure to those with symptoms. 

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6 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

OK. 

 

I just wonder if we could have targeted the "stay at home" orders more strategically. It could have resulted in more businesses staying open, fewer jobs being lost, and asking people to stay home if they fell ill. We still could have checked temps, etc. at businesses to limit the exposure to those with symptoms. 

That would have required the administration to take this seriously much sooner than they actually did. 

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