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2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread


stevemcqueen1

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4 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Hypothetically, what is YOUR take on him if he is 5'10"?

 

If he's 5'10, then I think that is right on the margin for playing the position in the NFL.

 

It's not just height that's at issue.  He's got a narrow frame that can't carry much bulk.  And I want to see his hand size measurement.  Big hands is an important part of Russell Wilson's success playing the position at a similar size.

 

He's going to walk the tight rope of trying to avoid injury his whole career.  But if he can stay healthy, he's the best player in the class IMO.

 

I hadn't graded Murray before because I genuinely thought he was going to play baseball.  But now that the Kingsbury angle has emerged and he has the potential to get a promise from Arizona, I think the conditions have changed.  He can make quite a bit more money over the first part of his career as a #1/#1 pick in the NFL.  And with baseball in his back pocket for leverage, he can get a lot of his first contract guaranteed.

 

Here's my grade and evaluation:

 

Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma, RS Junior - 7.2

 

Strengths
- Ability to throw on sprint outs, bootlegs, and scrambles from both directions is special
- Routinely drops dimes without setting his feet
- Effortlessly changes slots and platforms.  Can shorten his motion and still throw with accuracy.
- Needs minimal space in pocket to operate
- Best bucket thrower in the class by a mile. Deep ball placement and touch are special.  Ability to throw back shoulder fades is special.
- Throws an extremely catchable ball on everything within 15 yards.
- Accuracy and touch at each part of the field are exceptional.
- Shows potential in the one step drop game.  Very quick and coordinated feet.  Not worried about him developing his drops.
- Incredibly consistent with his placement and timing.  Can throw 30 passes a game and only miss on two or three.
- Rare touch on seam throws.  Slot receivers get to eat with him in the pocket.  Won't get you killed.
- Decision making is consistently clean.  Doesn't turn it over.  Tends to only makes a couple of mistakes throwing into coverage per game.
- Sees the whole field and plays with good pocket awareness. Climbs the ladder without dropping his eyes to avoid edge pressure.
- Can make the anticipation throw and squeeze the most yards out of a play.  Presses the high option even before it comes uncovered despite having the low option open.  Can play hero ball.
- Ability to go off script and turn negative plays into positives is special.  Can move the chains on third and longs on scrambles.
- Very good runner for the position.  Quicker than fast.  Elite scrambler.  Dangerous on designed runs.

- QB draws in goal to go empty sets are almost unstoppable.
- Short-strider with elite short area quickness and change of direction skills.
- Capable of hitting the edge against an off balance front, but not going to do it against one that's prepared.
- Can flip his hips and shoulders and cut up field like a punt returner.
- Vision as a runner is outstanding.  Shows real creativity in this part of the game.
- Has mastered the slide.  Keeps his head on a swivel.  Never takes big hits on designed runs or scrambles for positive yardage.

 

Weaknesses
- Height and stature are marginal for an NFL QB.  Narrow frame.
- Very limited base strength and leg drive.  Can be taken down with cheap arm tackles.
- Release point on set throws from the pocket is low.
- Gets happy feet in the pocket against a tough rush.
- Didn't face consistent pressure this year.  Was the beneficiary of extraordinarily good OL play and was able to showcase vertical passing ability and improvisational ability as a result.
- Arm strength looks fairly average.  Ability to rip intermediate throws outside the numbers against NFL windows looks mediocre.
- Can get too caught up playing hero ball and will start pressing instead of just focusing on moving the chains.

 

Overall I think Murray is the best player in the class, but the questions about whether or not he has an NFL body are valid.  Setting those questions about his size aside, he is the best thrower in the class.  He's a hyper efficient backyard football gunslinger in the style of Baker Mayfield.  And he's got the crafty and dangerous running ability of Russell Wilson.  He is a dynamic weapon at the QB position, but he is NOT a workhorse you can just throw out there and let get beat up like a Josh Allen type player at the position.  There are certain things his NFL team is going to have to do in order to properly utilize him:

 

1 - You have GOT to get as good a passblocking OL in front of him as possible.  His vertical passing and improv game are special.  He needs quite a bit of time in the pocket to use these weapons.
2 - You've got to give him vertical receivers who can climb the ladder against a safety playing over the top.  He will get them the ball if you have them.
3 - You need guys who can separate on nine routes.
4 - You need WRs who are willing to get physical and block an edge.  He can rip off a zone read for 40 yards if your WRs can take care of their corner.
5 - You need slot receivers with good instincts for finding the seam and some ability to run after the catch.  He would get the most out of someone like Zach Ertz.
6 - You need backs and outside receivers who are reliable in the flats and can make a single defender miss and get upfield.
7 - You need a reliable back up QB.  He's going to get banged up.

 

Use the New Orleans offense as a base and then build in a read option and roll out game to move pockets, clear out throwing lanes, and take advantage of his ability to run and throw on the run.

 

If you can build all that, you'll be running one of the best offenses in the league and Murray can be one of the league's best QBs.  He is an unbelievably gifted thrower.  Baker Mayfield meets Russell Wilson.

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16 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I think the Safety market has been dramatically impacted and weakened over the last decade. Teams just don’t value it like they used to. And I think if Payne is a pro bowl level talent, we won’t second guess taking him over James too long 

 

Payne is a culture changer.  Also the game itself is changing, trending back towards the run.  Ten of the top 16 rushing offenses this year made the playoffs and the only two teams who made it that don't run well are Philly and Indy.  I also don't think A gap rushing has been as important as it is now for a very long time.

 

I will always prioritize the every down defensive lineman over safety.  You can get good safety play with middling free agents or mid round draft picks.  What you need to spend money/high picks on is talent at corner and on your line.  And if you don't have bendy edge guys, then you better be able to A gap rush.  I'm looking specifically at the way Jacksonville and Baltimore are built and that was their formula.

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I hate to go the choice that will probably be most popular with fans and media leading up to draft, but I’m all in on Murray. Thanks for the scouting report @stevemcqueen1, if anything else to add to more knowledge in regards to him please continue posting. 

 

Im one who believes this is where the game is headed, wide open spread attack’s with dual threat QBs. Not that this will be the one and only way, but will continue to gain traction in the NFL, especially when college coaches continue to get hired. 

 

I do dislike the baseball angle though. It’s be just the Skins luck that in year 3 he states wanting to be the first QB to play in the NFL and MLB. Or retire in year 4 after bringing franchise a SB, because he needs a challenge and to return to baseball. 

 

#Murrayfor2019 

 

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I think Ryan Finley would be a solid mid round pick. Can you be a developmental guy if you played 6 years of college ball and are 24? Anyway, I watched the video below to see Finley, but how about Kelvin Harmon? Very good hands. Solid speed. Built like a tank. 

 

 

 

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I noticed that Will Grier put up excellent stats as a true freshman at Florida, in terms of completion percentage and TD to INT, so I dug up this video. I had no idea what a good runner he is. Super mobile. I'll put together a more comprehensive breakdown of Grier later, but he is beginning to look like my favorite QB of the draft that we actually have a shot at. 

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On 1/11/2019 at 2:34 PM, JamesMadisonSkins said:

In a world where we bring in a premier FA Safety and possibly a pass rusher in some capacity, and possibly bring back Crowder, I lovr this draft. Traded the first 3rd back for a later 3rd and 4th

 

84: Rd3 Pick 20  Connor McGovern OG Penn State

Interestingly, OG Connor McGovern was drafted in the 5th rd of the 2016 NFL draft by Denver. He has become a solid starter for them. Perhaps we have found a way to circumvent costly player trades by simply re-drafting kids a few years after their original draft. 😉

 

(note, I'm aware that the other OG Connor McGovern just happens to play the same position as his namesake)

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On 1/11/2019 at 7:06 PM, Anselmheifer said:

I think Ryan Finley would be a solid mid round pick. Can you be a developmental guy if you played 6 years of college ball and are 24? Anyway, I watched the video below to see Finley, but how about Kelvin Harmon? Very good hands. Solid speed. Built like a tank. 

 

 

 

 

Kelvin Harmon is a beast and would love to draft him but i am not a fan of drafting Finley. Finley lacks NFL arm strength and struggles under pressure. He really benefited from strong OL and WR play while at NC State. 

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16 minutes ago, Given said:

 

Kelvin Harmon is a beast and would love to draft him but i am not a fan of drafting Finley. Finley lacks NFL arm strength and struggles under pressure. He really benefited from strong OL and WR play while at NC State. 

I like Harmon, but like Hakeem Butler better. He doesn't move like a guy that is 6'6". Naturally high points the ball and has great hands. Great YAC. His draft range is tricky. I could see him going late 1st, and I could see him going 3rd or 4th if he doesn't time well. I'd jump all over him in the 3rd, probably. 

 

 

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https://nypost.com/2019/01/13/dolphins-basically-planning-to-tank-in-tua-tagovailoa-head-turner/

 

Dolphins basically planning to tank in Tua Tagovailoa head-turner

 

Miami is already looking toward the 2020 quarterback class, which should feature Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and Oregon’s Justin Herbert, ESPN reported Sunday. The report, citing sources, indicated the Dolphins know they have to rebuild over time — which, translated, amounts to their not being good, getting a top draft pick and changing their fortunes slowly.

In essence, the Dolphins are reportedly tanking — even if that’s a near impossibility from a player standpoint, as each is playing for a paycheck. Still, ownership doesn’t have to bring in players who would help the team win.

The Dolphins, coming off a 7-9 season that ended with head coach Adam Gase being fired, will have the No. 13 pick this year in a quarterback-shallow draft; the same teams that need a future signal-caller this offseason (the Giants, Jaguars, Redskins, perhaps the Bucs) have an excellent chance of needing a future signal-caller next offseason, as well.

“Basically, the thought is we’re going to look to really build this organization based on our needs and if it takes a year or so — two years, three years — we’re going to be there and we’re going to be a [winning] organization,” Dolphins owner Stephen Ross told reporters last week.

 

 

 

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I have been watching tape of QB's for the past few days. And this draft isnt as horrid at QB as some make it out to be. There are not a ton of "come right in and start" guys. But this draft has some REALLY good developmental guys. I should be done with QB tape this week and will post my thoughts then.

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On 1/7/2019 at 11:45 PM, Monk4thaHALL said:

 

Johnathan Abram, Taylor Rapp, Isaiah Simmons, Sean Williams - United States Naval Academy. Notable addition: Juan Thornhill. Honorable mention: JoJo Mcintosh. 

 

 

Such great size. Very good, but not elite physicality. 

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On 1/11/2019 at 7:06 PM, Anselmheifer said:

how about Kelvin Harmon? Very good hands. Solid speed. Built like a tank.

 

 

 

Love Harmon, but I don't think he has the speed to warrant drafting at 15 and most likely will not be there second round. Wherever he goes i will be a fan of his, though. 

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Was also surprised to see how dominant the Rams OL was against Dallas' defensive front.  Ditto for New England's against the Chargers.  And in the opposite vein, the Chargers' OL looked like crap against New England's front.  Also noticed that the real turning point in the Eagles-Saints game was when Fletcher Cox got hurt.  And in the Chiefs game, Damien Williams's production opened up the RPO game for Mahomes and made the Chiefs balanced.  Kept the Colts from ever being able to catch up.  I would say that the Chiefs defensive front also did a pretty good job considering how talented Indy's offensive line is.  They hurt Indy early and did enough to keep the game from becoming a contest.  Luck is a dangerous passer who can get red hot on you even if he's having an off day, and they prevented that from happening.

 

The lesson from this weekend was that the trench battle was the decisive part of three of the four games, and a major part of the fourth.  All of these quarterbacks were good and evenly matched, so the most experienced OLs and best runningbacks seemed to be what broke the stalemate.

 

We've got to get a QB that can allow us to hang with these teams.  Just so we don't get swamped like Baltimore did the week before.  Not as worried about being able to match the QB play of Dallas, but the others are a concern.  And on top of that, we've got to build a better running game simultaneously.  That's the level that the best teams have reached.

 

And on defense, we have got to get better play on the outside.  Quarterbacks are too damn good now.  The underneath passing game is so dangerous and so many times your safeties don't even get a chance to get into the play until after your defense has already failed.  Corners have to be able to succeed on an island in man coverage to beat the best teams IMO.  I like our young talent, but all of them could be upgraded, and I'm not sure you can have too many high quality corners.

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Easton Stick from NDSU is an interesting one. He basically stepped in for Carson Wentz and started 3 years and they didn't miss a beat. Won 2 of the last 3 national titles. (shoutout JMU for knocking them out the one year they didn't win).

 

Stick seems to run that offense flawlessly. IDK why he isn't getting the Wentz hype ... I guess Carson had a skill-set that was better for the NFL on film otherwise Stick would be getting some more love.

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10 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Such great size. Very good, but not elite physicality. 

 

Former three star recruit that Clemson has done a good job with.  Developing guys like him is a huge part of why they are a first rate college program.  He had a shaky start against Alabama, but ended up settling down and having a great game.  That's kind of been the story of his season.  You can see some issues with decision-making/play recognition.  He's got to learn how to work smarter too.  And tackle better.  But he is such a forceful, impressive athlete.  And the role that he's got at Clemson plays let's him play fast and minimizes how many reads he has to make.

 

Only a RS Sophomore.  Probably not going to declare this year.  He is still very much in development.  But he's growing rapidly and has a chance to be very good by the time he's ready to make the jump to the NFL.  I know there are a lot of Derwin James fanboys here--if you like James, then you're going to like this kid.

 

Clemson's DL was celebrated, and deservedly so.  But that second level was pretty special too, as were the outside corners.  Very good group.  They stifled one of the best offenses in CFB.

I think the lightbulb started coming on for Simmons when he made the switch to linebacker.  He's the type that needs to be closer to the LoS and get a shot to play downhill and get into the backfield.  I think he projects best as a stack linebacker to the NFL.

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Heard a Harrison Smith comp for Taylor Rapp, and I can see it.  Really like this guy.   Think we need a stud corner and edge rusher more, but Rapp or Adderley would be a nice addition to our secondary.  

 

@stevemcqueen1 yeah, we could really use a stud corner, especially one that could also make a difference vs the run game.  As you said, we have some promise back there with our young guys, but no one’s really stood out, IMO.  

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59 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Stick seems to run that offense flawlessly. IDK why he isn't getting the Wentz hype ... I guess Carson had a skill-set that was better for the NFL on film otherwise Stick would be getting some more love.

 

You answered your question.  Wentz is a more gifted QB.

 

Watching Stick, he reminds me of Cousins.  Not as much arm talent, but certainly a better athlete.  Very coordinated feet with excellent footspeed for the position.  Very tough.  Very good pocket presence with a lot of experience from behind center.  Has that spider sense for feeling the rush while keeping his eyes downfield.  Solid field vision and generally makes the right reads. 

 

Unfortunately, marginal arm talent.  Ball placement is dodgy.  Release is long.  Strength to stick throws outside the numbers isn't really there.  Deep ball looks nice and he can attack the seems from a clean pocket, but you're not going to be getting off schedule production from him and it'll feel like work moving the chains. 

 

He's an older prospect too, much like Grier and Finley.  His upside isn't nearly as good as the younger guys like Haskins, Murray, and Jones.  Or Lock for that matter.  And he got to beat up on some secondaries that just don't look very good.  He's not going to be running behind lead blockers in the NFL and he's not going to be beating NFL DBs to the edge.  And sticking those high options is going to be a lot harder in NFL-type space with that arm.  Especially throwing from a crap pocket.

 

There's a lot to like with him and he's got a good foundation to build upon as a pocket passer.  But he's probably a mid to late round flier.  I'm OK investing in him within that kind of range, particularly since it feels like we've got a lame duck coaching staff and front office.  But I'd be disappointed with the very low ceiling we'd still have at QB.  Particularly since the top four guys in this class all have such high end arm talent.

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