2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[volsmet]

1 hour ago, bakedtater1 said:

Would anyone else be ok if the skins don't draft a QB at all this year?..I know I would..I mean I guess a late round qb wouldn't be to bad

 

I don’t really want us to draft a QB, I want to trade for Rosen or get a guy in 2020. I have my preferences in this draft, but 2020’s class is loaded compared to this one.

[Skinsinparadise]

51 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

If memory serves, I think Boykin may be Waldman's WR1. I can't remember. I know he ranks him exceedingly high and believes his issues were entirely related to ghastly Notre Dame QB play.

 

I'm a huge Isabella fan.

 

McLaurin and Ridley are raging, screaming DO NOT Draft guys. Ridley's got grade inflation due to his brother. He's a non-athlete w/no production and McLaurin is an athlete with zero production. Hard pass on both.

 

 

I like looking at the metrics and production as much as anyone (heck I subscribe to PFF, I get Warren Sharp's stuff every year, etc) but some fall for me outside of those variables when I look at context and watch them play.  

 

i listed a whole bunch of receivers I like before Ridley and McLaurin.  So I am not in love with either one.  As for Ridley, Georgia though didn't throw to him much.  They were more of a pound it on the ground type of team.  His 40 was pedestrian but his 10 yard at 1.57 was pretty good -- about the same 10 time as AJ Brown.  He made some really good acrobatic catches in the games I watched.  There are some off the field red flags about him though that make me pause. 

 

As for McLaurin, he would fit your like of combine studs.   4.35 40.  1.54 10.   Not bad for a 6 "1, 208 pound receiver with a better broad jump than AJ Brown and he benched about the same as him, too.  But as for production 35 catches for 700 yards isn't hot.  I wouldn't call it though "zero" either.   From the games I watched, mostly a deep threat but the ball wasn't thrown to him a lot.    Ironically I was just listening to a PFF guy who charted Dwayne Haskins who talked about how Haskins doesn't love going deep and almost always checks down when he's blitzed.  That would help a dude like Parris Campbell not so much McLaurin. 

 

https://www.sbnation.com/2019/3/5/18247493/terry-mclaurin-scouting-report

Advanced stats say Ohio State’s Terry McLaurin is one of the best receivers in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Among FBS receivers in this class, McLaurin was first in 2018 in Marginal Efficiency, the advanced stat by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly that measures how successful a throw to a receiver is based on the down and distance. (For instance, a 10-yard completion on third-and-8 is more efficient than a 12-year completion on third-and-20.) He was seventh in the class in Marginal Explosiveness, which similarly measures how successful his successful targets are. Nobody fared better across both departments.

Traditional numbers like McLaurin a lot, too.

He caught 71 percent of his targets, ninth-best in the class. He averaged 14.3 yards per target, No. 1 in the class. He caught 11 touchdowns, tied for sixth-most. It helped to play in an elite Ohio State offense quarterbacked by Dwayne Haskins, but there’s no statistical indicator that McLaurin’s anything other than a star.

38 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Whats consensus for possible available players at 15?

 

 

Looks like we got some fun disagreements on this thread as for 15.

 

I think the closest to consensus would be:

 

Brian Burns

TJ Hockenson (if he falls which is unlikely)

 

Otherwise unless am forgetting a prospect or two, I think we got some disagreements here. 😀

[volsmet]

55 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

If memory serves, I think Boykin may be Waldman's WR1. I can't remember. I know he ranks him exceedingly high and believes his issues were entirely related to ghastly Notre Dame QB play.

 

I'm a huge Isabella fan.

 

 

 

Give me some Izzy & Boykin, I love each. 

[Anselmheifer]

53 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My main concern is his health but have heard multiple times that his Lisfranc isn't the more serious version of it.  If the Redskins doctors are on board.  So am I.  But not at 15.  in the early 20s.

 

IMO the dude if healthy will be a more complete player than Desean Jackson considering he is a threat both in the horizontal game and the vertical game. 

 

If Marquise Brown is a Desean Jackson/Tyreek Hill, is he really worth less than a 15? I still remember passing on JJ Watt and winding up with Kerrigan. I love Kerrigan, but a lot of times these trde downs are not worth it if there is a potential pro-bowler available at your pic. I think Brown is one of a few players likely to be there and worth that pick. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

If Marquise Brown is a Desean Jackson/Tyreek Hill, is he really worth less than a 15? I still remember passing on JJ Watt and winding up with Kerrigan. I love Kerrigan, but a lot of times these trde downs are not worth it if there is a potential pro-bowler available at your pic. I think Brown is one of a few players likely to be there and worth that pick. 

 

I've probably put the most pro Marquise Brown propaganda on this thread starting from the fall.  So you won't get me arguing against him.  😀 The only reason why I wouldn't take him at 15 is twofold.

 

A.  I think there is a shot a better prospect than him lands at 15.  I think for example a pass rusher is a more premium position than WR. 

B.  I think they can get away with trading down and still getting him.  Granted this is just a guess but it seems like the team salivating for him is the Eagles.  And if we trade down before that pick we likely still get him.  And if we don't you still can get a good prospect IMO who likely would be in that range.  So I'd risk it. 

 

But yeah this idea that Marquise would be some unicorn type of success I don't buy at least not in today's NFL.  Speed.  Mismatches in space.  Guys like Desean, Tyreek, TJ, Tarik are game breakers.  They are the types of playmakers that keep coordinators up late at night trying to figure out how to stop them.  They are the type of players who according to Deangelo Hall that cornerbacks are scared to death of and they overcompensate to stop which screws up what they typically want to do coverage wise.

 

Not to pick on Arcega-Whiteside.  I like Whiteside and posted my review of him weeks back.  But guys like him aren't IMO scaring coordinators to death.  Defenses are unlikely going to be shading coverage his way.  He's unlikely going to open things up for others underneath.  Marquise Brown if healthy would accomplish IMO all of the above.   

 

There is a difference IMO from a good receiver and a game breaker.  Marquise IMO is a game breaker.  

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

39 minutes ago, volsmet said:

 

Give me some Izzy & Boykin, I love each. 

 

They are both combine studs.  And Izzy produces, too.  Those 2 and Harmon are the big names receivers that i haven't watched yet.  I am running out of time though.  That to me is the only downside of the draft being this week -- you run out time to hit everyone you want to look at. 

 

But yeah I can't recall a draft that I was more looking forward to.  This one seems in theory at least to be a more unpredictable one than usual.    It all feels a bit wild as to tracking rumors and not just for this team  Even the beat guys who cover the team including Standig who does all the mocks for NBC Washington admits he has no feel for what the Redskins are going to do. 

 

[volsmet]

The legend, Nik Needham

 

Decent article 

 

http://insidethepylon.com/pylon-u/teams-ncaa/division-ia-fbs/conference-usa/utep-miners/2019/02/12/nik-needham-best-nfl-draft-prospect-dont-know/

 

 

 

This is an absurd reaction to a play, but it’s a decent play for the thread.

 

Unfortunate opponent 😔

 

[Skins Skeptic]

3 hours ago, bakedtater1 said:

Would anyone else be ok if the skins don't draft a QB at all this year?..I know I would..I mean I guess a late round qb wouldn't be to bad

 

It's been said by others, but almost any draft strategy would be ok with me. You can always hope to find a Kirk Cousins type in the 3rd/4th. Sitting behind Keenum might be perfect for such a player.

 

If I were the Skins, I'd consider any of Murray, Lock or Haskins if they're there at 15. Lock might be my favorite. Has great physical ability (rocket arm, great outside the pocket) and apparently is very well liked by teammates. I'm not expert on his scouting report. I know his production was not great (which is worrisome), but he was apparently head and shoulders above competition at the senior bowl. I really like him based on that and the apparent leadership ability. Haskins has to be Big Ben-like to make it. Has the arm talent, but is a negative outside of the pocket. Could definitely defend the pick. Murray has tremendous upside, of course, but you have to wonder about the makeup a bit. The NFL can make a guy's head spin. I know he has the athletic ability to handle it, but we just cannot know about his head. I don't trust the BS that's coming out now either way. 

 

With all of that said, I know I'm not on the same page with leadership but I'm thinking 2-5 years in the future. Absent a QB, that really brings OT into play for me unless we really love a guy who falls. With Trent's legit non-football medical issue and the tread on his tires, I suspect Bruce/Doug/Kyle might actually be thinking the same thing.

19 hours ago, bowhunter said:

Will Grier - 30

and for those curious 2018 Josh Rosen - 29

 

So Rosen's not a dumb guy, but also not Einstein. Makes me like him even less, to be honest. He just seems like a know-it-all that doesn't engage with teammates. I love the supposed pinpoint accuracy, but don't want another Jeff George in the room. You have to be Aaron Rodgers good for that to fly, and even he's taking hits these days. I know there's supposedly value in trading for Rosen at a lower cost, but cost aside, I think I'd like all of the top 3 above him this year. 

[actorguy1]

 

[Anselmheifer]

8 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

 

 

Jesus. That seems like an over pay. No thanks. They are also possibly going to need to replace Tyreek Hill, since his child was taken away after a second abuse complaint. Should have saved those draft picks. 

I feel like we haven't discussed Josh Jacobs at all. I know we aren't in the market for a running back, but I like that kid. He's physical and plays faster than his timed speed and is also a very good pass catcher. 

[Burgundy Yoda]

Wow that's a smart move for Seattle, I cant believe the Chiefs thought Frank Clark was worth that. 

 

Bush is moving up draft boards like Hassan Reddick was. All based around potential, I'd like to have him but I cant shake the thought of an Hassan Reddick type disaster here. 

[Skin'emAlive]

I still think I pulled off a better deal 💪

[nonniey]

1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

If Marquise Brown is a Desean Jackson/Tyreek Hill, is he really worth less than a 15? I still remember passing on JJ Watt and winding up with Kerrigan. I love Kerrigan, but a lot of times these trde downs are not worth it if there is a potential pro-bowler available at your pic. I think Brown is one of a few players likely to be there and worth that pick. 

I get it but think how much better it would be if we traded down and still got Brown.

[volsmet]

17 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Jesus. That seems like an over pay. No thanks. They are also possibly going to need to replace Tyreek Hill, since his child was taken away after a second abuse complaint. Should have saved those draft picks. 

 

Well if this Frank Clark was in this draft he’d go top 10, so KC used its first & a 2020 2nd to move up & get a 25 year old who is proven ... he’s only a bit over a year older than Winovich. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

So Seahawks pick #21 and #29, and now need an Edge rusher.  If we traded back with Houston for #23.  I think a reasonable likelihood, is that Edge wouldn't be available then.

 

So, if we trade back for the #23 pick, we're looking at only IOL, WR, S, and maybe CB?  I don't think there's a big talent difference between anyone in the Top 10 CB's.  I think they're mostly scheme/personnel dependent, and the order they get drafted in will probably surprise us.  IDL is a no go.  Edge is gone.  RB is meh.  QB's are probably gone.  No good LB's left (I'm assuming Devin Bush's floor is #20 to Pittsburgh).  TE is out, as we all seriously doubt Hockenson somehow falls that far.

 

1 minute ago, volsmet said:

 

Well if this Frank Clark was in this draft he’d go top 10, so KC used its first & a 2020 2nd to move up & get a 25 year old who is proven ... he’s only a bit over a year older than Winovich. 

 

But they get him at franchise tag costs, plus whatever his contract is.  KC just traded for him, they have no leverage in contract negotiations.

[nonniey]

1 minute ago, volsmet said:

 

Well if this Frank Clark was in this draft he’d go top 10, so KC used its first & a 2020 2nd to move up & get a 25 year old who is proven ... he’s only a bit over a year older than Winovich. 

True but you also have to take the contract into account which degrades his value a bit.

[Est.1974]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

Sorry, but I despise targeting a position. The draft should always be BPA with weight for need, but never targeting a specific position (outside of QB, and even then you shouldn't force it). 

 

Position targeting is what creates a lot of bust opportunity.

 

I think BPA weighted for need will get us to LG and WR by default.

 

otherwise we might end up drafting that RB from Alabama

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

 

Bush is moving up draft boards like Hassan Reddick was. All based around potential, I'd like to have him but I cant shake the thought of an Hassan Reddick type disaster here. 

 

No one was saying Reddick was the best player in that draft or a long time college coach say they were the best LB they ever faced.  Much more love for Bush now than Reddick then. And more concerns about Reddick being a tweener.      But I wouldn't worry about it. The odds that we have a shot to draft Bush I think are slim.  😀

 

On another note, I just listened to Jordan Palmer talk about his student Drew Lock.  He more or less suggested that he had some questions about Josh Allen coming out last year (also one of his students) but he has zero concerns about Lock.  He thinks he is going to be really good with no equivocation.  You can say well of course he's going to say that but like I said he actually went apples to apples to a previous prospect.  He touted Stidham as an example but not in the same way.   And if he goes over the top about one of his students and it doesn't pan out, people aren't going to take his comments seriously in the future.  So in my book he really put himself out there for Lock. 

[Master Blaster]

56 minutes ago, volsmet said:

The legend, Nik Needham

 

 

 

 

 

Reminds me of Norman

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

On another note, I just listened to Jordan Palmer talk about his student Drew Lock.  He more or less suggested that he had some questions about Josh Allen coming out last year (also one of his students) but he has zero concerns about Lock.  He thinks he is going to be really good with no equivocation.  You can say well of course he's going to say that but like I said he actually went apples to apples to a previous prospect.  He touted Stidham as an example but not in the same way. 

 

Can you elaborate on what he said about Stidham?  I mean, Stidham is not a good QB prospect.

27 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Bush is moving up draft boards like Hassan Reddick was. All based around potential, I'd like to have him but I cant shake the thought of an Hassan Reddick type disaster here. 

 

Bush has slowly been moving up for awhile.  Reddick was just suddenly a 1st rounder one day.  Also, Reddick was drafted to transition from his normal Edge role in college.  He played off-ball LB every now and then, but he looked awful doing it.  Sometimes it works out, Anthony Barr has been a success in Minnesota.  Other times, it doesn't, such as Solomon Thomas in San Fran, played IDL in college almost every snap, but looked awkward and confused on the few times he was on the Edge.  Then San Fran decided to draft him only as an Edge guy.

[volsmet]

25 minutes ago, nonniey said:

True but you also have to take the contract into account which degrades his value a bit.

 

Thats why they moved up to the top 10 with just a very late 2nd. Get the guys who have proven themselves while you have the QB on a rookie contract. They chances those 2 picks help them win a Sb just increased drastically because they invested them in a guy they know will produce at a high level. I like it for both teams. 

19 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

On another note, I just listened to Jordan Palmer talk about his student Drew Lock.  He more or less suggested that he had some questions about Josh Allen coming out last year (also one of his students) but he has zero concerns about Lock.  He thinks he is going to be really good with no equivocation.  You can say well of course he's going to say that but like I said he actually went apples to apples to a previous prospect.  He touted Stidham as an example but not in the same way.   And if he goes over the top about one of his students and it doesn't pan out, people aren't going to take his comments seriously in the future.  So in my book he really put himself out there for Lock. 

 

If only he’d fall to us. 🙏

[nonniey]

21 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

No one was saying Reddick was the best player in that draft or a long time college coach say they were the best LB they ever faced.  Much more love for Bush now than Reddick then. And more concerns about Reddick being a tweener.      But I wouldn't worry about it. The odds that we have a shot to draft Bush I think are slim.  😀

 

On another note, I just listened to Jordan Palmer talk about his student Drew Lock.  He more or less suggested that he had some questions about Josh Allen coming out last year (also one of his students) but he has zero concerns about Lock.  He thinks he is going to be really good with no equivocation.  You can say well of course he's going to say that but like I said he actually went apples to apples to a previous prospect.  He touted Stidham as an example but not in the same way.   And if he goes over the top about one of his students and it doesn't pan out, people aren't going to take his comments seriously in the future.  So in my book he really put himself out there for Lock. 

Well in a sense he didn't really pan out about Allen did he?

[wilco_holland]

I think the Bama RB could be a player people want to trade up for to our spot. 

 

But this year is wild. The lack of good intel is so low. Even beat writers have no clue who might be in play for teams after 10. 

[Skinsinparadise]

52 minutes ago, nonniey said:

Well in a sense he didn't really pan out about Allen did he?

 

Not sure what this means, Josh Allen a bust?  Even if so, I said he more or less said Lock is better.  You don't hear a teacher go apples to apples with his own students like that typically. 

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

Sorry, but I despise targeting a position. The draft should always be BPA with weight for need, but never targeting a specific position (outside of QB, and even then you shouldn't force it). 

 

Position targeting is what creates a lot of bust opportunity.

 

I'd quibble. We've got a massive pile of data going back decades, and another massive pile of data available since FA was introduced and Plan B was dumped to illustrate positional cap values. So what that means is that while you shouldn't target specific positions w/specific picks you should target a specific collection of positions w/particular picks early in the draft based on hit rate and  +Cap Value Added by such decisions. These positions are namely QB, DT, Edge, CB, OT, and at times WR is lumped in. TE, LB, S, and RB tend to be dropped off this value chart entirely for the bulk of round 1, though I think S and TE are probably going to push their way in in the coming years in no small part due to the arrival of 3 consecutive quality TE drafts ('17-'18-'19) after essentially a decade long drought (much like the RB drought from 2008-2014, 2016). 

 

What this all means is essentially, in round 1 you should be looking at certain positions and not others (Namely OT, DT, Edge, QB, and CB and to a lesser extent WR, while eschewing positions like RB, FB, TE, and LB). After day 1 things open up, but again during day 2 and 3, the value added still persists w/those traditional positions. Personally, I think Safety, and TE are different depending upon the type of TE available, and the eval of the Safety, if you're looking at a game changing freak like Sean Taylor, Ed Reed and last year, Derwin James, the guy we moronically passed on. I grant that I'm providing caveats here that value added people might disagree with, but I'd like to think that we can all differentiate between a Derwin James, or Sean Taylor, and a Terrell Edmonds or Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. Not to say that you always know at the time, but generally, elite superstar prospects look like it, and are projected to be such, even if they bust, while just very good prospects look like it, and not surprisingly go where they go in a given draft. 

 

Personally: 

QB: 1st-2nd round, avoid using on a QB after round 3 unless said QB had a 1st or 2nd round grade but red flags caused the drop. 

RB: Avoid in round 1.

WR: Depending upon the quality of the prospect, tier should open around slot 5 unless its a Randy Moss styled prospect.

TE: Avoid inside top 10.

OT: Can take anywhere

G: Can Take anywhere 

C : Avoid until around slot 15

 

D :

DT: Can Take Anywhere

Edge: Can Take Anywhere

MLB: Avoid top 5-10

OLB: Avoid top 3

CB: Can take anywhere

S: Avoid top 5 unless HOF potential. 

 

That kind of sums it up for me.