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Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum


Veryoldschool

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On 3/25/2018 at 9:52 AM, Llevron said:

 

Happens alot in Jays system doesn't it? (Asking not saying)

Actually it does. Which is the reason, Jay is excited about Alex. To Kirk's defense, he was playing on a one year contract on a team he didn't want to play on and team that wasn't necessary rosy about him. Kirk had to look short before he looked deep for his own protection....thus check down Kirk. I watched the coach 22 of every game last year. WRs were running wide open last year and the year before. Kirk was playing it safe until the team needed a score (which should be every ****ing time they touch the ball). But I digress. The youngin' is gone. Leave 'em be. I'm seeing a more exciting offense with Alex.....without a doubt!! 

 

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On 3/28/2018 at 3:57 PM, FrFan said:

Reid previously traded 3 QBs Feeley, Kolb, McNabb none of them thrived elsewhere. Let's see what will happen with the 4th one.

 

No Debbie Downer thoughts, the 4th time will be a charm.  Synder is due, one of his big deals is bound to workout finally.

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On 3/30/2018 at 11:34 PM, Warhead36 said:

Using wins to evaluate QBs is stupid. Tim Tebow and Mark Sanchez have winning records, go sign them.

Um... there's only two QBs on that list above Smith that didn't win a super bowl.  I'll give you winning records (because with a small sample size its not as clear cut), but overall wins there's definitely a correlation to how good they actually are.

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3 hours ago, Veryoldschool said:

 

No Debbie Downer thoughts, the 4th time will be a charm.  Le pécheur est dû, one of his big deals is bound to workout finally.

I only believe in what I see, and Snyder is due to make more money. Until then, let's see what M. Smith will do, and good luck to him.

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To anyone who still thinks "If Reid thinks so highly of Smith, why did he trade him? Why did he jump up in the first round to draft Mahones?"--

 

"Reid said he really does think this deal will work for both sides. He is thrilled to have Kendall Fuller, but to hear him gush about Smith begged the question: Why trade him in the first place?

 

"Listen,” Reid said with a sigh. "I'm not going to tell you we're in the greatest cap situation in the world. We made some moves that fit into that.”

 

The Chiefs are as cash-strapped as any team in football. They only have about $2.2 million left and that’s before they sign their draft picks. A whopping four percent of their cap is dead money to Smith and Jeremy Maclin alone. They had to do something with Smith entering the final year of his contract.

 

“That’s this age of football. We drafted this young kid to help move that along,” Reid said referring to 2016 first-round pick Patrick Mahomes II. “I wasn't sure that was going to happen this year, but it did.”

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1 hour ago, FrFan said:

 

The writer makes the claim that Smith looked like an MVP candidate over the first 5 games, but looked horrible the next 6 games during their slump.

 

Too bad the guy didn't wait until the end of the season before writing that article lol...

 

The Chiefs' offense ranked #1 over those first 5 games in terms of points scored. Chiefs' offense then ranked #6 over the last 5 games in terms of points scored.

 

Smith played in 4 of those last 5 games. In the 4 games Smith played in, the Chiefs ranked:

 

#2 in total yards.

#5 in points per game

#1 in yards per offensive play.

#5 in passing yards

#2 in passer rating

#7 in most passing TDs

#1 in fewest INTs

#4 in yards per attempt

 

So like I said...Too bad the guy didn't wait until the end of the season before writing that article.

 

Turns out, he did lol...here's what the same writer said at the end of the season:

 

"I love Alex Smith. I believe in Alex Smith.

 

He has had his best season this year and if he plays like he did at both the beginning and end of the season in the playoffs then the Chiefs could absolutely make a run this year. If you are asking me if Alex Smith “deserves” to be the starter next year, I think the answer is absolutely yes, but that doesn’t mean it's what the Chiefs should do. If they believe Mahomes is a special talent that is ready to produce now AND they can clear a ton of salary cap space to improve other spots on the roster AND they can get some draft picks for Smith I think Mahomes showed enough to make a case for himself as the starter in 2018."

 

Which is basically what I said as the reasons Smith was traded (blows on fingernails and rubs them on shirt lol).

 

The same writer later said this after the trade to the Skins was reported:

 

"Before I did some research and really tried to put Smith’s time in Kansas City in perspective, I would have said that Smith was the third best quarterback (for the Chiefs) of the modern NFL era behind both Joe Montana and Trent Green. I don’t think that’s a stance that is too different than what a lot of other Chiefs fans think of Smith. You’d be hard-pressed to find another quarterback in the last 30 years that anyone with a right mind would put over him. So I wasn’t surprised that I didn’t find any other quarterbacks in the modern era that did more with the Chiefs. What I was surprised by is that when you really look at their numbers and accomplishments you can make a pretty strong case that Alex Smith was the best Chiefs quarterback of the modern era."

 

 

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Hopefully the team can enjoy better health so the defense and offense can improve and Smith can continue Kirk's string of 4K yards per year and move the team forward.  The Skins have been a .500 team over the last three seasons but appeared to me to be very unbalanced, they depended too much on the passing game and the offense to win shootouts.  I hope they can be .500 again but we start to see a running game and defense develop to balance out the team an enable it to become a playoff team in subsequent seasons.  

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Apparently David Carr thinks Alex Smith will struggle compared to the former Skins QB.

 

After heaping his praises on Kirk, he mentions this tidbit about Alex: ”As for Smith, Carr believes he'll need to adjust to a totally new offensive philosophy with a downgrade in weapons.”

 

Who is David again?

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2767927-david-carr-predicts-kirk-cousins-will-succeed-alex-smith-to-struggle-next-year

 

 

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2 hours ago, SWFLSkins said:

Redskins upgraded QB position and could challenge Eagles in the east, Smith a reason why.... Nate Burleson.

 

 

By all accounts, congratulations to the assholes in the north for winning. I'm sure they've enjoyed it; that being said the parity in this division is unlike most or any of them in the NFL. No one has won it back to back since 2004. Another asterisk comes with that, Philly had an absolute freak run last year, and they were even scarier with Wentz at QB; we'll need to see if he resembles anything of the guy who could break loose and have strength and confidence in his knee to break those same tackles he's been breaking to throw games in a different direction. That week 1 game against them last year we had them multiple times, but Kirk, Crowder, and others played horrendous when it mattered most. 

 

Not regretting the swap for Smith at all anymore because looking back, Kirk rarely ever delivered in the most critical moments of his career. I'm thinking of;

 

1. 2015 When Green Bay took a 24-18 lead at home the Redskins managed 5 drives that results in 0 points.

2. 2016 Win and you're in the Playoffs and Kirk managed to toss 2 crucial interceptions, one with the game completely on the line. 

3. The failure to recognize pressure on the final drive to win against Philly in week 1, the Saints loss in OT, the flat Chargers game, and another embarrassing loss to the Giants in the season finale, the inability to do work against the Cowboys.

 

The greatest moment I recall of the guy was actually a Shanahan call in which he ran a 2 point conversion in when RG3 went down against the Ravens. Also blowing up on Green Bay in the regular season, and a few other regular season spectacles, but that's it. The guy was pointed on proving everyone that he could toss the rock, and his value wasn't dependent on him doing it when it counted. 

 

Alex Smith might not do this any better honestly, but if the FO is all in on building the entire team this strengthens our ability to become a unit that wins games all around and isn't dictated just by the final drive.

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On 4/1/2018 at 9:32 AM, Califan007 said:

 

The writer makes the claim that Smith looked like an MVP candidate over the first 5 games, but looked horrible the next 6 games during their slump.

 

That's because he was.

 

During that 6 game span, he averaged 247 yards per game, 62.6 completion percentage, threw 8 TD's (average 1.33 per game), 3 INT's, averaged a 89 rating, but also averaged a QBR of 45.4.  

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I'm getting pretty sick and tired of seeing the lazy argument people (on TV, radio, and message boards) keep making that Smith is pedestrian without an elite defense to carry him.  Are people really that lazy that they can't put the tiniest bit of effort into researching that claim before using it as one of the foundations of their argument as to why Smith won't succeed here?  The Chiefs had the 30th worst defense last year according to DVOA, which means Smith just had the best year of his career having to help carry along the 3rd worst defense in the league.  You know where the Redskins' defense ranked last year?  11th (which was 100% due to our pass defense, as our run defense ranked 29th).  It's part amusing and part frustrating to see people relying on this narrative that is so far off from the truth.  I almost want to just not point it out and just leave the person spouting this nonsense blissfully ignorant.

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4 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I'm getting pretty sick and tired of seeing the lazy argument people (on TV, radio, and message boards) keep making that Smith is pedestrian without an elite defense to carry him.  Are people really that lazy that they can't put the tiniest bit of effort into researching that claim before using it as one of the foundations of their argument as to why Smith won't succeed here?  The Chiefs had the 30th worst defense last year according to DVOA, which means Smith just had the best year of his career having to help carry along the 3rd worst defense in the league.  You know where the Redskins' defense ranked last year?  11th (which was 100% due to our pass defense, as our run defense ranked 29th).  It's part amusing and part frustrating to see people relying on this narrative that is so far off from the truth.  I almost want to just not point it out and just leave the person spouting this nonsense blissfully ignorant.

 

I can only speak for myself when I say that the defensive requirement for Smith comes in when you discuss winning a Superbowl. If you have a defense and a running game along with a QB such as Smith, you can win one. But it doesn't appear likely that the guy is going to carry your team completely with his abilities. He's a football QB and a damn good one, but he's not Peyton manning, or Aaron Rodgers, or Tom Brady, or Brett Favre. So if we want the best chance to compete and win games, we need a running game to maximize our talents strengths and we need a defense to supplement the score and other complex aspects of the game.

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1 hour ago, Rocky52Mc said:

 

I can only speak for myself when I say that the defensive requirement for Smith comes in when you discuss winning a Superbowl. If you have a defense and a running game along with a QB such as Smith, you can win one. But it doesn't appear likely that the guy is going to carry your team completely with his abilities. He's a football QB and a damn good one, but he's not Peyton manning, or Aaron Rodgers, or Tom Brady, or Brett Favre. So if we want the best chance to compete and win games, we need a running game to maximize our talents strengths and we need a defense to supplement the score and other complex aspects of the game.

 

No, he’s not, but how many times have those QBs won a Super Bowl without an above average defense?

 

Weighted DVOA Rankings for Brady’s SB defenses: 

2017: #10

2015: #13

2005: #7

2004: #2

2002: #13

 

Weighted DVOA Rankings for Manning’s SB defenses: 

2016: #1

2007: #24

 

Weighted DVOA Ranking for Rodger’s SB defense: 

2011: #2

 

Weighted DVOA Ranking for Favre’s SB defense: 

1997: #6

 

So I count 1 time in 2007 with Manning’s Colts, who were going up against the great Rex Grossman in the Super Bowl (and picked him off twice, to no one’s surprise. The Bears also lost 3 fumbles in that game).   

 

Every other year, these guys needed both a good offense AND a good defense to win the SB. So anyone using that as a way to ding Smith, when you can say the same exact thing about these HOF QBs, is just using a lazy argument to push their agenda IMO. 

 

Bottom line is that Smith performed like a top 5 QB with a bottom 3 defense last year, and that “is only good with a great defense” argument should be laughed at any time someone tries to use it. 

 

Now, Smith’s need for a top run game may be a completely different story...

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7 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

No, he’s not, but how many times have those QBs won a Super Bowl without an above average defense?

 

Weighted DVOA Rankings for Brady’s SB defenses: 

2017: #10

2015: #13

2005: #7

2004: #2

2002: #13

 

Weighted DVOA Rankings for Manning’s SB defenses: 

2016: #1

2007: #24

 

Weighted DVOA Ranking for Rodger’s SB defense: 

2011: #2

 

Weighted DVOA Ranking for Favre’s SB defense: 

1997: #6

 

So I count 1 time in 2007 with Manning’s Colts, who were going up against the great Rex Grossman in the Super Bowl (and picked him off twice, to no one’s surprise. The Bears also lost 3 fumbles in that game).   

 

Every other year, these guys needed both a good offense AND a good defense to win the SB. So anyone using that as a way to ding Smith, when you can say the same exact thing about these HOF QBs, is just using a lazy argument to push their agenda IMO. 

 

Bottom line is that Smith performed like a top 5 QB with a bottom 3 defense last year, and that “is only good with a great defense” argument should be laughed at any time someone tries to use it. 

 

Now, Smith’s need for a top run game may be a completely different story...

 

"to push their agenda" 

 

I like how this has quickly grown into a conspiracy theory. And I'm sorry, please don't sit around here and preach about DVOA like it's the end all be all of the argument. Defense, as an entirety, can be weighed based on statistical performances but to judge one by a simple rank or number leaves out a dramatic amount of complexities that simply can't be accounted for with weighted algorithms. Unless you identify what you're looking for in stats you can walk away with terrible assumptions.

 

The Redskins had a horrendous defense last year, to say they ranked 11th in defensive efficiency is a joke. Where is the efficiency in letting up 38 points to Dallas? 30 points to the Chargers? 17 second half points to the horrendous 49ers? Blowing the Saints game? The Redskins defense played well only in very small stretches last year. This whole talk about Alex Smith and fans being concerned about winning is because HE CAN'T COME IN HERE AND CARRY THIS TEAM. We need our defense to perform better and we need a run game, this is the basic fundamentals of football and gives us the best chance to succeed with balance across the board. If you think Alex Smith is going to come into a new offense and blossom for 16 games you might be in for a rude awakening. If anything about his career is telling it's that he improves with consistency; well you just took that away from him.

 

The Brady, Manning, Favre, Rodgers comment goes above and beyond what they did in their careers, it's a testament to their legendary skill at the position. You can only win 1 Superbowl a year and these guys all played in the same time frame, often times those teams were loaded. Do understand that the QB "carrying" a team often refers to their mental and physical abilities leading to the win, especially in the later parts of the game. Do you think Alex Smith is that guy? It's obvious this team is going to need to be strong across the board to win games, and there's nothing wrong with that at all.

 

It seems here like the only agenda being pushed is the one by you. 

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1 hour ago, Rocky52Mc said:

 

"to push their agenda" 

 

I like how this has quickly grown into a conspiracy theory. And I'm sorry, please don't sit around here and preach about DVOA like it's the end all be all of the argument. Defense, as an entirety, can be weighed based on statistical performances but to judge one by a simple rank or number leaves out a dramatic amount of complexities that simply can't be accounted for with weighted algorithms. Unless you identify what you're looking for in stats you can walk away with terrible assumptions.

 

The Redskins had a horrendous defense last year, to say they ranked 11th in defensive efficiency is a joke. Where is the efficiency in letting up 38 points to Dallas? 30 points to the Chargers? 17 second half points to the horrendous 49ers? Blowing the Saints game? The Redskins defense played well only in very small stretches last year. This whole talk about Alex Smith and fans being concerned about winning is because HE CAN'T COME IN HERE AND CARRY THIS TEAM. We need our defense to perform better and we need a run game, this is the basic fundamentals of football and gives us the best chance to succeed with balance across the board. If you think Alex Smith is going to come into a new offense and blossom for 16 games you might be in for a rude awakening. If anything about his career is telling it's that he improves with consistency; well you just took that away from him.

 

The Brady, Manning, Favre, Rodgers comment goes above and beyond what they did in their careers, it's a testament to their legendary skill at the position. You can only win 1 Superbowl a year and these guys all played in the same time frame, often times those teams were loaded. Do understand that the QB "carrying" a team often refers to their mental and physical abilities leading to the win, especially in the later parts of the game. Do you think Alex Smith is that guy? It's obvious this team is going to need to be strong across the board to win games, and there's nothing wrong with that at all.

 

It seems here like the only agenda being pushed is the one by you. 

 

 

So basically your argument is that DVOA can't be relied on because you can remember times when your favorite team gave up a bunch of points?  Interesting.  You realize that the #1 defense in the league last year, the Jags, gave up 37 points to the Titans, right?  They also gave up 44 points to the 49ers, 27 points to the Rams, and 27 points to the lowly Cardinals when they were without David Johnson and Carson Palmer.  

 

And no, having the 11th ranked defense last year is not a joke.  We had one of the best pass defenses in the league last year.  Our pass rush was top 7 in sacks, top 2 in pressure rate, and our secondary ranked 2nd in the league in "pass breakups + interceptions", 3rd in opponent completion percentage, and we were 7th in opponents 3rd down conversion percentage.  If our run defense was even average, we would have likely had a top 7 defense last year.  DVOA also puts teams on an even playing field, meaning they adjust for situation on a play by play basis (like Cousins turning it over and the opposing offense starting in our territory... our defense started with the 5th worst field position per drive in the league), and importantly, they take strength of schedule into account.  The Redskins played the 4th hardest schedule on defense last year.  If they also took injuries into account, we'd have likely ranked even higher than 11th.

 

I never said that Smith can come in and carry this team to a SB.  As I proved earlier, it's almost impossible for any QB to do so.  You need a balanced team to win.  All I was saying was that Smith can be a top QB in the league, even with a terrible defense, as he just proved last year.  Go ask any Chiefs' fan for confirmation, if you want to discount DVOA so much, and they'll tell you just how terrible their defense was with the loss of Barry for the year.

 

Agenda or bias, call it what you want.  But clearly you have an issue with me trying to look past the conventional wisdom on Smith and get to the truth.

 

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On 4/5/2018 at 11:54 AM, DJHJR86 said:

 

That's because he was.

 

During that 6 game span, he averaged 247 yards per game, 62.6 completion percentage, threw 8 TD's (average 1.33 per game), 3 INT's, averaged a 89 rating, but also averaged a QBR of 45.4.  

How many sacks and pressures in that time span.... just curious. 

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1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

So basically your argument is that DVOA can't be relied on because you can remember times when your favorite team gave up a bunch of points?  Interesting.  You realize that the #1 defense in the league last year, the Jags, gave up 37 points to the Titans, right?  They also gave up 44 points to the 49ers, 27 points to the Rams, and 27 points to the lowly Cardinals when they were without David Johnson and Carson Palmer.  

 

And no, having the 11th ranked defense last year is not a joke.  We had one of the best pass defenses in the league last year.  Our pass rush was top 7 in sacks, top 2 in pressure rate, and our secondary ranked 2nd in the league in "pass breakups + interceptions", 3rd in opponent completion percentage, and we were 7th in opponents 3rd down conversion percentage.  If our run defense was even average, we would have likely had a top 7 defense last year.  DVOA also puts teams on an even playing field, meaning they adjust for situation on a play by play basis (like Cousins turning it over and the opposing offense starting in our territory... our defense started with the 5th worst field position per drive in the league), and importantly, they take strength of schedule into account.  The Redskins played the 4th hardest schedule on defense last year.  If they also took injuries into account, we'd have likely ranked even higher than 11th.

 

I never said that Smith can come in and carry this team to a SB.  As I proved earlier, it's almost impossible for any QB to do so.  You need a balanced team to win.  All I was saying was that Smith can be a top QB in the league, even with a terrible defense, as he just proved last year.  Go ask any Chiefs' fan for confirmation, if you want to discount DVOA so much, and they'll tell you just how terrible their defense was with the loss of Barry for the year.

 

Agenda or bias, call it what you want.  But clearly you have an issue with me trying to look past the conventional wisdom on Smith and get to the truth.

 

 

Let me lay out my bias in plain English so I'm not confusing anything; let's pray to God that Jordan Reed stays healthy this year, and that Richardson and Crowder can burn people, because if you watch the tape on Smith all of his success last year came from passes that exposed his receivers to massive hits or he hit a wide open YAC running Tyreek Hill. Who in the NFL would be scared of our running attack when they know damn well all you need to do is stack the box and we can't get out of it. Smith also has the lowest % of passes thrown to receivers who aren't open. I'm not sure if you know this, but our receivers aren't the greatest at creating separation, but they're great at catching competing balls. 

 

Here's the plain damn truth and it's a bit worrisome, I'm optimistic though I will say. We're going to need to run the ball better and more, and Smith is going to need to go against the grain of his passing instincts in order for us to be successful offensively. This is going to require Gruden and Smith to get on the same page from Day 1 and not have any serious setbacks heading into the season. Like I said, I'm optimistic, I love this team and this QB trade was 3 steps ahead of anyone else in the league looking for a good starter. 

 

There's also a possibility that Cousins potentially held this team back from its full potential, so the changing of players at this position will be telling. Most all of this is just pure speculation based on the recent past of everyone involved and these answers won't be known until the season. 

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13 minutes ago, Rocky52Mc said:

 

Let me lay out my bias in plain English so I'm not confusing anything; let's pray to God that Jordan Reed stays healthy this year, and that Richardson and Crowder can burn people, because if you watch the tape on Smith all of his success last year came from passes that exposed his receivers to massive hits or he hit a wide open YAC running Tyreek Hill.

 

That's a just a tiny bit dramatic, don't you think?  I've seen plenty of plays Smith made last year where this wasn't the case.

 

 

14 minutes ago, Rocky52Mc said:

Smith also has the lowest % of passes thrown to receivers who aren't open. I'm not sure if you know this, but our receivers aren't the greatest at creating separation, but they're great at catching competing balls. 

 

Way ahead of you there.  I've shared the same concerns.

 

 

15 minutes ago, Rocky52Mc said:

I'm optimistic though I will say. We're going to need to run the ball better and more, and Smith is going to need to go against the grain of his passing instincts in order for us to be successful offensively. This is going to require Gruden and Smith to get on the same page from Day 1 and not have any serious setbacks heading into the season. Like I said, I'm optimistic, I love this team and this QB trade was 3 steps ahead of anyone else in the league looking for a good starter. 

 

There's also a possibility that Cousins potentially held this team back from its full potential, so the changing of players at this position will be telling. Most all of this is just pure speculation based on the recent past of everyone involved and these answers won't be known until the season. 

 

I agree with this.  My OP was all about Alex's success with a terrible defense last year. :)

 

HTTR

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Biggest stat for defense is points. KC was 15th, 'Skins were 27th. If KC was bad, 'Skins were worse where it really counts. Alex smith, with no running game and a defense that can't stop teams from scoring, is going to be in a situation he has not been in before. I also think last year was a anomaly as far as his production is concerned, and if you look at his full body of work, it most certainly is. I don't think he's going to be nearly as good as last year.

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7 hours ago, Morneblade said:

Biggest stat for defense is points. KC was 15th, 'Skins were 27th. If KC was bad, 'Skins were worse where it really counts. Alex smith, with no running game and a defense that can't stop teams from scoring, is going to be in a situation he has not been in before. I also think last year was a anomaly as far as his production is concerned, and if you look at his full body of work, it most certainly is. I don't think he's going to be nearly as good as last year.

 

Where is your faith?  Smith is the guy the Skins wanted and signed to a large 5-year contract.  Dan, Bruce, and Doug know what they are doing it's going to be grand!

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1 hour ago, Morneblade said:

Biggest stat for defense is points. KC was 15th, 'Skins were 27th. If KC was bad, 'Skins were worse where it really counts. Alex smith, with no running game and a defense that can't stop teams from scoring, is going to be in a situation he has not been in before. I also think last year was a anomaly as far as his production is concerned, and if you look at his full body of work, it most certainly is. I don't think he's going to be nearly as good as last year.

 

Points is a bad way to judge a defense without context.  How many times did Jamison Crowder muff a punt last year and give the other team great field position?  How many times did Kirk fumble or throw an INT and give the other team great field position?  How about Perine?  As I pointed out earlier, the Redskins' defense started with the 5th worst field position per drive in the league.  That is a huge factor in why we gave up so many points.  The Kansas City defense had the 3rd best starting field position per drive, largely because their QB took such good care of the ball.

 

If you break it down further, we were 15th in TDs per drive and 27th in FGs per drive.  This points to the fact that even though we gave up a lot of points, it was mostly due to other teams racking up field goals against us, and again, a lot of that had to do with the favorable field position other teams started with, including starting out in field goal range on many occasions.

 

We also ranked 11th in 3&outs per drive and 7th in 3rd down conversion percentage against, which points to the fact that we were able to get other teams off the field at a pretty good clip when they weren't already in field goal range.

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