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Veryoldschool

Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

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1 minute ago, goskins10 said:

 

You may be confusing dead cap with payout. He is due 20,400,000 next yr - although he already has received $5.6M from his signing bonus. But the dead cap if the team cuts him before the 5th day of the 2019 yr is $36.6M. Payout and dead cap are different. 

 

This. @dckey, look at the table below to see how everything is broken down by year.

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1 minute ago, goskins10 said:

 

You may be confusing dead cap with payout. He is due 20,400,000 next yr - although he already has received $5.6M from his signing bonus. But the dead cap if the team cuts him before the 5th day of the 2019 yr is $36.6M. Payout and dead cap are different. 

I wasn't talking about dead cap.  I understand that we have a dead cap.  My first post was about how we have an out after 2020 and the way we structured the contract he is not even a top 10 paid qb until 2021

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1 minute ago, dckey said:

I wasn't talking about dead cap.  I understand that we have a dead cap.  My first post was about how we have an out after 2020 and the way we structured the contract he is not even a top 10 paid qb until 2021

 

By "an out", I assume you are talking about a acceptable level of dead cap space? Yes, if we make him a post June 1st cut in 2020, the cap hit is a little over 5 million.

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5 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

The overthecap chart shows it pro-rated. $5.4M a year. Where are you seeing sa $27M payout towards the cap? He does get the money now. We just get to pro-rate it in terms of CAP. Maybe that's the confusion. 

 

image.png.53df7fb0692d7a2157f4bfb828efb12b.png

Now I see, so why is it that after 2020 every article says we have an out because all his guaranteeds will be paid?

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13 minutes ago, dckey said:

Now I see, so why is it that after 2020 every article says we have an out because all his guaranteeds will be paid?

 

 

Because the only remaining GUARANTEED money is the $5.4 mil signing bonus we have already paid out but allocated to the 2021 and 2022 season.  If we were to cut him after 2019, we'd still be on the hook for the 16 mil in signing bonus money, so we're not actually saving anything substantial. 

 

2022 Salary is 20,750,000 plus a 250,000 workout bonus.  If you look at 'Savings' it's 21 Mil which is all the moneys due for the 2022 season, but it's not guaranteed.  

 

If you REALLY look at the money, the only 'base' salary that's guaranteed is the 2018 (13 mil) and 2019 (15 mil) seasons.  The remainder of the dead cap moneys paid through the contract is the 27 Mil in signing bonuses.  That's why if you do the math backwards, after 2019, the 'dead cap' money is just the remaining $5.4 mil in signing bonuses over 3 seasons. 

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5 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Because the only remaining GUARANTEED money is the $5.4 mil signing bonus we have already paid out but allocated to the 2022 season

 

2022 Salary is 20,750,000 plus a 250,000 workout bonus.  If you look at 'Savings' it's 21 Mil which is all the moneys due for the 2022 season, but it's not guaranteed.  

 

If you REALLY look at the money, the only 'base' salary that's guaranteed is the 2018 (13 mil) and 2019 (15 mil) seasons.  The remainder of the moneys paid through the contract is the 27 Mil in signing bonuses.  That's why if you do the math backwards, after 2019, the 'dead cap' money is just the remaining $5.4 mil in signing bonuses over 3 seasons. 

So is it 5.4mil a year after 2020 until 2022?  Now I see I didn't think you can prorate the signing bonus after you cut him.  Meaning I was thinking that we would have to pay him the remainder soon as he was released

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Just now, dckey said:

So is it 5.4mil a year after 2020 until 2022?  Now I see I didn't think you can prorate the signing bonus after you cut him.  Meaning I was thinking that we would have to pay him the remainder soon as he was released

 

 

He's already been paid that signing bonus.  We just prorate it across the life of the contract so it doesn't count toward the cap in a single year.  The thing is that once that signing bonus is paid, we can't get out of it, regardless of circumstance. 

 

He's not guaranteed to be paid an additional dime after 2019 because he's received all his due money that he's guaranteed.  We just apply that signing bonus money to those seasons.  The signing bonus number does not reflect when it's paid...  He's already received that money, so no matter what happens with his contract, that $5.4 mil counts toward our cap number.  

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So did we over pay for Alex Smith?  This is what I want to know?  By avg he is the sixth highest paid qb, but by how is contract is configured he is never a top 15 paid qb until we can release him with minimal cap hit

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33 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree.

 

 

Agree with the Packer game if we are purely talking first half.  The Arizona game, love the running game in that one but Alex's biggest completion if I recall was like 12 yards or something like that.  I liked his play better in the last two weeks as opposed to Arizona.

 

He contributed in the red zone and TD drive to close half; helping to seal the game in the first half essentially.  

 

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I think some are framing your argument in way where there is no way you can lose -- including you at times.   Suggest that they are winning and its no coincidence that it's happening because Alex is QB. Then when cornered, its often Alex hasn't played that well.

 

This makes sense. 

 

Its difficult, as there are so many variables to my opinion and my expectations aren’t that Alex will be a top 10 QB or top 15 in some years. 

 

I think hes been below average to average average to date. This so incredibly nuanced and subjective though, I realize this. And why the teams overall success is a big part of my stance. I’ve stated many times, this season was the end all be all for me and I’m prepared to eat crow if season doesn’t result in a playoff birth. 

 

Alex is contributing to a successful season at a cost $18.5mil/%10 of cap/#15 highest paid QB and I’m okay with it. I think the value for team and Alex at this point is even, as I don’t think either side is winning the deal. 

 

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Here you are talking about Alex in theory as an average to above average.  Are we talking in theory or are we talking that he's played above average or average?

 

I think overall he’s been below average in relation to comfort in scheme and making reads. He’s been elite in limiting negative plays and TOs, even while being overall uncomfortable in the system— a credit to him. 

 

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A. Is there is no spectrum of Qbs where they don't play well but their version of not playing well is a winning formula?

 

It’s nuanced. It’s hard to argue his style hasn’t complimented the structure of the team and individual game flow of each game. 

 

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B.  Has he played well or not played well?  Forget what you think he should play based on your theory of what you think of the dude in the past as a QB.  How has he played now?

 

Answered this above.

 

 

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Strawman argument.  Can you say Malcom Floyd hasn't contributed to their wins? Everyone contributes SOMETHING.   If the theory is every player should be celebrated for every win -- ok.  But there is as a reason why certain players are highlighted more.  There is a reasons why we are hearing more this week about JJ Watt versus Kayvin Webster.   

 

I think we can agree the QB isnt comparable to any other position. This in my view voids your argument. 

 

I shared above how Alex has complimented the brand of football the Redskins have won with to date. Jay needs to embrace the 2018 identity and run with it. The team has taken a different identity than what he’s comfortable with, but a selfless/confident coach will adapt. This may help fans jump on board as well.

 

 

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And if Alex is a key component to these wins -- if the beat reporters are correct why is Jay and his coaching staff missing it?  some hyperbole to make a point is Jay and his offensive staff just dense and don't get winning football when they see it and aren't proper;y crediting it to Alex.  Beat guys are saying they are very frustrated versus pleased with Alex's play so far.  Finlay in one of his latest blog casts said from what he is gathered they thought they were getting the 2017 version of Alex and not this -- they didn't sign up for this

 

Beat guys use click bait words like “frustrated” to rile up the fans in the middle of the week. Words get twisted and no one cares because the sources are all “anonymous”. Bogus reporting. Once again, Im completely bias and don’t value this kind reporting in the least. 

 

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What player doesn't contribute to wins?  So maybe say it this way:  every player including Alex did something positive in the mix of the game to help the team win that game. 

 

Ya man, I value the QB more than others. I believe you do as well, but doing so for sake of this discussion. 

 

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If people want to sell that better play is coming, his weapons are subpar, be patient, etc, etc.  I get that.  but doubling down that he's played well or winning because of him which to me is the same thing -- don't get that.  And I know i am not alone on this -- doesn't seem like the coaching staff thinks he's played well or a key part of why they are winning.  

 

I think he’s found ways to contribute while working to acclimate self to Jay and playbook. The coaches themselves have stated how much value exists in Alex protecting the football and consistently staying out of negative plays. 

 

If team doesnt make playoffs, then it will sound off alarms for me about all involved. I’ve been consistent with this since the off-season, not propping myself up on the current 6-3 record. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, dckey said:

So is it 5.4mil a year after 2020 until 2022?  Now I see I didn't think you can prorate the signing bonus after you cut him.  Meaning I was thinking that we would have to pay him the remainder soon as he was released

 

So the signing bonus had been paid already. All that is at questions is how the team gets charged for it. So Alex has all $27M now. 

 

In terms of CAP, yes the team has to take the cap hit for all remaining signing bonus that ahs not been prorated the year they release him.

 

That's why they show 2020 dead ap of $16.2M ($5.4M * 3). 2021 is $10.8 M ($5.4M *2), then 2022 is $5.4M.

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A win a against the Texans with a couple of Alex Smith TDS would shutdown his critics for a bit and emboldened his legion of squishy supporters like me.  Winning is the best tonic for our QB is a limp dickititis.  Win Alex win!

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1 minute ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

He's already been paid that signing bonus.  We just prorate it across the life of the contract so it doesn't count toward the cap in a single year.  The thing is that once that signing bonus is paid, we can't get out of it, regardless of circumstance. 

 

He's not guaranteed to be paid an additional dime after 2019 because he's received all his due money that he's guaranteed.  We just apply that signing bonus money to those seasons.  The signing bonus number does not reflect when it's paid...  He's already received that money, so no matter what happens with his contract, that $5.4 mil counts toward our cap number.  

Now I understand.

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47 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:


Finlay in one of his latest blog casts said from what he has gathered they thought they were getting the 2017 version of Alex and not this -- they didn't sign up for this

 

 

If this is actually true then it answers some questions. Because we know that signing Alex was a Bruce maneuver. Doug Williams wasn't even in the loop.

 

 

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Just now, dckey said:

So did we over pay for Alex Smith?  This is what I want to know?  By avg he is the sixth highest paid qb, but by how is contract is configured he is never a top 15 paid qb until we can release him with minimal cap hit

 

 

LOL - The $71M question!  Not laughing at you - please do not take it that way. 

 

So for me, if he played like 2017 Alex, no. The way he is playing now- absolutely yes. 

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2 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

 

LOL - The $71M question!  Not laughing at you - please do not take it that way. 

 

So for me, if he played like 2017 Alex, no. The way he is playing now- absolutely yes. 

I understand, was just wondering, because I see a lot of arguments about how much we paid him and how he is performing, seems like he is playing up to his salary avg!!!  I thought we had paid him top 10 money, which really upset me because I was thinking it would hinder our cap

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8 minutes ago, dckey said:

I understand, was just wondering, because I see a lot of arguments about how much we paid him and how he is performing, seems like he is playing up to his salary avg!!!  I thought we had paid him top 10 money, which really upset me because I was thinking it would hinder our cap

 

He does have the 9th largest contract in the NFL right now.

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5 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

He does have the 9th largest contract in the NFL right now.

edit

 

That's average/.yr and assumes he stays the entire contract. It's not really the best measure. The current yr is a better number but you have to add signing bonuses for all. I may do that later. Have work to do right now. 

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3 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

That's average/.yr and assumes he stays the entire contract. It's not really the best measure. The current yr is a better number but you have to add signing bonuses for all. I may do that later. Have work to do right now. 

 

Well, ALL contacts are shown in their entirety. That is where you start. Also add that his guaranteed total dollars and % is very high, it's a big contract. There is no way to really get around it.

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46 minutes ago, Veryoldschool said:

A win a against the Texans with a couple of Alex Smith TDS would shutdown his critics for a bit and emboldened his legion of squishy supporters like me.  Winning is the best tonic for our QB is a limp dickititis.  Win Alex win!

 

For 3-4 days anyway...until we are on national TV vs. Dallas. :)

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59 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

Its difficult, as there are so many variables to my opinion and my expectations aren’t that Alex will be a top 10 QB or top 15 in some years. 

 

 

The guy isn't 24.  I am not counting on squat positive or negative as to some years down the road as if this is step one for a long term relationship.  i am concerned about now.   Who knows how anyone plays down the pike.  I get the logic though if the dude was some young whipper snapper.

 

59 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

It’s nuanced. It’s hard to argue his style hasn’t complimented the structure of the team and individual game flow of each game. 

 

 

By that if the concept is if the defense, special teams and running game or at least two of the three carry the team -- Alex won't add much to that party at all but won't blow up the other units' party -- I'd agree.  Like I said before Trent Dilfer with Baltimore. Mark Brunell for that one playoff run, etc.   Unfortunately, I don't think this defense is on par with Baltimore.  If Alex was playing with a bad defense, bad running game -- I think his record would be terrible.  I think Dan Steinberg said it perfectly, he's Tofu, he just takes on the flavor of the other food but contributes really no flavor of his own.

 

59 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Jay needs to embrace the 2018 identity and run with it. The team has taken a different identity than what he’s comfortable with, but a selfless/confident coach will adapt. This may help fans jump on board as well.

 

 

i don't think its crazy for Jay to think his teams both in Cincy and here could always move the ball -- even in 2014.  Now, they are struggling to do it, lets try to fix it. 

 

59 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

I think we can agree the QB isnt comparable to any other position. This in my view voids your argument. 

 

 

I do think the Qb is important.  But specific to how you are selling your point -- to me it actually does more to void your own point than mine.   You make the claim that he's played average to below average yet you want to credit him for winning.   By that yardstick, if a player can play below average and also be about winning football --then how important is that position?  Heck the core argument of most people pushing Alex is hey let the other units win it for you and Alex won't screw it up -- that's how you win  Clearly making the other units more essential.  

 

To me you either ride the argument or you don't.  Alex should be going straight to the Hall of Fame of QBs if he should be mostly judged by W-L records and INT %.   Wonder if he enters the Hall of Fame wearing a Chiefs jersey or Redskins one? 

 

I can split hairs and say a little of everything to cover all basis.  But you got some fundamental bottom line variables.  And I don't care what I said about it before or not.  It's about what am I seeing NOW.

 

As for before, my positions on Alex were

 

A.  He's a good QB we'd see it as a slight downgrade.  In my view, I am totally wrong so far

B.  I liked the contract extension to avoid any future contract impasse.  In my view, I am ridiculously wrong

C.  Didn't like the trade because of his age -- didn't see this as a go for broke roster.  I am feeling somewhat right on this.  

D.  I saw that its possible that 2017 was an exception and not the rule for Alex going forward.  So far looking right.

 

But I am not stuck in any position.  It can all change.  But I am not rewriting what i see just to justify a prior position.  

 

 

59 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

I think he’s found ways to contribute while working to acclimate self to Jay and playbook. The coaches themselves have stated how much value exists in Alex protecting the football and consistently staying out of negative plays. 

 

 

Coaches have also in a defensive way talked about how the passing offense must get better and have done so repeatedly including more or less acknowledge its the weak point of this team.   Keim, Hoffman, Finlay, Jones aren't writing articles about Jay's frustration and are just making it up for click bait -- they are talking about this when they are interviewed on the radio.

 

I think the click bait these days are people making something closer to your point -- hey it doesn't like pretty but Alex is a winner just embrace it.  You have some pushing that narrative like Deion Sanders, Phillips, etc.  Phillips narrative on the radio was funny to listen to, yes he doesn't play well, yes he's really painful to watch but heck they are winning.   Now that is click bait because it comes off counter intuitive.

 

I am not being sarcastic here I actually think there are two arguments that have been presented that lead to conclusions i've never thought of,

 

A.  Can you play poorly as a QB but your brand of poorly won't damage the team's chances to win if they have other units that lead the way.

 

B.  While, we acknowledge, we'd rather have a good QB than a mediocre one  -- having a mediocre Qb who doesn't cost you a game is way better than a gunslinger mediocre QB.

 

I can go on this ride.  For example, comparing good to very good QBs like Matt Ryan to this version of Alex Smith is ridiculous.  Ryan is way better.  but if we are going about the 18-30 range QBs -- the Colt McCoys, the Fitzpatrick types -- would you rather have a conservative QB who doesn't blow everything up or a weak armed gun slinger who will screw it up?  In those cases i'd clearly favor Alex. 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Well, ALL contacts are shown in their entirety. That is where you start. Also add that his guaranteed total dollars and % is very high, it's a big contract. There is no way to really get around it.

 

Easy now - Was not making a proclamation about it's size ?  You must have missed where I said he is not living up to the contract right now, and that is regardless of how you cut it. 

 

I agree, it's a big number. Just for me it's better to look at the actual money paid by year not an average per year. Like i said - I may take a different look later. I like looking at ways to cut data that make the most sense. A sordid hobby. 

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57 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

If this is actually true then it answers some questions. Because we know that signing Alex was a Bruce maneuver. Doug Williams wasn't even in the loop.

 

 

 

Have seen other signs of it too.  Bruce is tight with Polian.  Polian seems to carry his water on that show from time to time.  Polian and Reddick were selling on NFL live all off season about how the NEW version of Alex is the new reality of him.   Reddick went as far as saying he didn't care for Alex Smith as a QB previously,  But this new 2017 version is a whole new different dude. 

 

I think it was O'Connell who targeted Alex as the guy with Bruce making the deal. 

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It's possible for Smith to be protective of the football, which helps us win games, while also not playing very well in multiple other facets, which is holding us back from being much more complete and scarier to opponents.

 

Everyone here knows that, right? It doesn't mean he's willing us to victory all by himself, carrying all 52 other guys on his back with his arm. It just means simple things that are boring and annoying, like advancing 8 yards on 3rd and 15 where everyone is booing, instead of slinging it 25 for a pick let's say, actually do make a difference. Especially over time. It's just an example, and assumes nothing was there and that the QB was forcing it, and didn't miss a wide open guy for the 1st. This example could also result in other outcomes, like first down for the offense, which would be a net positive. But just for the sake of providing an example of where Alex's conservatism contributes to a net positive on a game.

 

So take the example above and say we were on the 50 yard line, 3rd down 15 to go. 8 yard pass gets us to the OPP 42. Tress Way is ballin so he pins them at the 8. VS throwing a pick to the OPP 35 where he is tackled right away. 27 yard difference in field position, that's pretty big. Especially since most would have had the thought "well we were just going to punt anyway, not the worst thing that could have happened." And they're right. It's not the end of the world. But field position is critical, and makes a huge difference over time. There are countless examples of plays throughout a game just like this, that tangibly effect the other two phases of the football team in special teams and defense.

 

The crowd that puts zero credence into the positive effect of little negative plays and TO's is so confusing to me. It doesn't mean Smith is playing like a great QB so chill out on feeling so annoyed. But it helps. And it's OK to point it out.

 

As for the beat guys, I have little doubt this isn't what they signed up for. Jay/FO I'm sure all expect better, as the contract justifies. I'm sure they also realize the value in the above, as Jay has pointed out on numerous occasions.

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Phew, beat reporters are now creating news that Jay is frustrated with Alex?

 

JP Finlay whose career is entirely tied to the Redskins and the relationships he builds at Redskins Park is going to risk it all for what exactly?  If anything, hearing him say anything remotely negative should alarm you that it’s potentially worse than the way he relayed it.  

 

 

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