2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

Is it just me or does the top two to three rounds of this class feel a little undersized?  A lot of the best players across many different positions are smallish.  It feels like it's pushing guys like Vea and Edmunds and Vander Esch and Davenport and Orlando Brown up higher than they should be going.

[skinny21]

Say we got Ward and then a back in the 2nd... I’d hope we find a contributor for DL or G in FA.  Going into rd 4 without either of those addressed concerns me.  Being just ‘decent’ along the trenches isn’t going to get us too far, IMO.  I’d be less concerned if we didn’t seem to be in a win now mode, because Ward gives us the flexibility to cut/trade Norman next year, which gives us more of a chance to re-sign our big FAs. 

[Going Commando]

Josh Allen too truth be told.

 

Alabama has been a little undersized the past two years.

[HardcoreZorn]

Me saying “that’s just not going to happen” was meant more as a I really just don’t think that will happen, not that it’s impossible or that there is some draft law preventing it. Hard to convey tone or meaning sometimes through text.

 

Im actually curious when the last time that has happened is. And sorry I just don’t consider Samuel a RB. He had 4 carries last year. He was not drafted as a RB and was never considered a RB throughout the draft process. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Here's how I see things unfolding ...

1. Cleveland - Sam Darnold, QB USC

2. New York Giants - Josh Rosen, QB UCLA

3. New York Jets - Josh Allen, QB Wyoming

4. Cleveland - Derwin James, S Florida State

5. Denver - Saquan Barkley, RB Penn State

6. Indianapolis - Bradley Chubb, DE NC State

7. Buffalo - Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma

8. Chicago - Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S Alabama

9. Arizona - Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville

10. Oakland - Roquan Smith, ILB Georgia

11. Miami - Connor Williams, OT Texas

12. Tampa Bay - Quenton Nelson, G Notre Dame

13. Washington .....

[OVCChairman]

1 minute ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's how I see things unfolding ...

1. Cleveland - Sam Darnold, QB USC

2. New York Giants - Josh Rosen, QB UCLA

3. New York Jets - Josh Allen, QB Wyoming

4. Cleveland - Derwin James, S Florida State

5. Denver - Saquan Barkley, RB Penn State

6. Indianapolis - Bradley Chubb, DE NC State

7. Buffalo - Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma

8. Chicago - Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S Alabama

9. Arizona - Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville

10. Oakland - Roquan Smith, ILB Georgia

11. Miami - Connor Williams, OT Texas

12. Tampa Bay - Quenton Nelson, G Notre Dame

13. Washington .....

I might cry if Nelson falls that far and we end up that close to havin him.  

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's how I see things unfolding ...

1. Cleveland - Sam Darnold, QB USC

2. New York Giants - Josh Rosen, QB UCLA

3. New York Jets - Josh Allen, QB Wyoming

4. Cleveland - Derwin James, S Florida State

5. Denver - Saquan Barkley, RB Penn State

6. Indianapolis - Bradley Chubb, DE NC State

7. Buffalo - Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma

8. Chicago - Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S Alabama

9. Arizona - Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville

10. Oakland - Roquan Smith, ILB Georgia

11. Miami - Connor Williams, OT Texas

12. Tampa Bay - Quenton Nelson, G Notre Dame

13. Washington .....

 

I don't think Williams is going to go that high.  Nelson is going to be the first OL taken.  I think Denzel Ward is likely to go top ten because he's the best outside corner in the class.  And I think Edmunds will probably be off the board at 13 too because of his physical tools.

 

For some reason I think Minkah is going to be the one to drop to 13.  It's going to be either Roquan or Minkah.  James has top ten written all over him.  Chubb is the only clean outside rusher in the class.  Barkley is the BPA at 1.  And Nelson is the best OL by a country mile.  They are all locks to be gone by 13, but not Roquan or Minkah.

 

Roquan's season was so good last year that I think it's fair to predict he'll end up being the best defender in this class.  And even though he's small, his speed at the position is difference-making.  He's clean in basically every way except that he's short.

 

Minkah's got some bad film and he's not as easy a projection to the next level.  He's a Tyraan Mathieu-esque "football player," and it'll take a coordinator with vision to figure out how to get the most out of him.  Plus Alabama guys don't go as high as we expect them to.  There will be some perceived lack of upside that could hurt his draft stock.

 

I just have this feeling he's going to drop to us and we're going to get another run to the podium no-doubter like last year.

[HigSkin]

 

[Going Commando]

Tremaine Edmunds is 6'5 in cleats.  255 pounds.  34 1/2 inch arms.  And runs like a safety.

 

I think someone is going to decide that his issues with play recognition are fixable, but that his ability to stand up guards, single cover tight ends, stone ball carriers on the goal line by himself, AND chase down screens and swing passes before the first down marker is sheer God-Given talent.  He has the best body of any defensive player in the class.  I think he's going to go top 12.

1 minute ago, HigSkin said:

 

 

I agree.  I just don't see any weaknesses in his game at all and he has elite speed and playmaking ability for his position.  The only thing to ding him with is his height, and some guys are just so good that height doesn't matter for them.  It'd surprise me a little bit to see him go before Chubb, but it wouldn't shock me.  He's almost as good as Kuechly was and Kuechly went 9 in a very strong class.

[Warhead36]

Edmunds is an incredible physical prospect but someone that raw terrifies me. Remember Aaron Curry? Or Vernon Gholston?

[The Consigliere]

9 hours ago, HardcoreZorn said:

 

You’re basically proving my point. Even in one of the most loaded classes of all time, three went before where we pick this year in the second round. Fine, say four would have counting Mixon. That’s still not 5, which is what I said wouldn’t happen this year. I don’t know why that’s so outlandish. Loaded classes also afford teams the opportunity to pick players at other positions and still get a really good RB later on. The chiefs with hunt and saints with kamara from last year come to mind. 

 

 

Have you looked at team needs here? There are numerous teams that have literally nothing worth a damn at RB, or think they don't: 

NYG: Broken down Stewart, bust Paul Perkins, and depth Wayne Gallman

Indianpolis: I like Mack, they do not, at least as an everydown back.

Tampa Bay: Peyton Barber and that's it. 

Washington: Chris Thompson and that's it.

Baltimore: UDFA Alex Collins and disappointment Kenneth Dixon

Seattle: A whose who of injury prone late draftees and UDFA's.

Detroit: Frank Gore's Corpse

Oakland: Two geriatrics

Miami: I've never got the sense they're fine with Drake

 

To me, I would be absolutely stunned if five didn't go off the board before our 2nd rounder but I agree that it's certainly possible. Add in that Kiper and other guys keep hearing from F.O.'s that RB's are hot again (yet more proof that these guys are indeed idiots, and not smarter than the smarter versions of Joe NFL Fan), and it definitely sounds like more teams rather than less will be panic buying out of fear that guys won't last into round 3. 

 

It also depends a lot on the valuations of F.O.'s:

 

Tape guys love:

Barkley

Guice

Jones

Chubb,

Michel

K. Johnson

Mark Walton 

John Kelley

 

Analytics+Combine guys love:

Barkley

Guice

Chubb

Penny

Freeman

Justin Jackson

Hines

 

Tape Guys are worried in particular about: 

Rashaad Penny-Blocking

Kalen Ballage-Effort, understanding of the position

 

Analytics guys are worried in particular about:

Jones: No combine, Charles comp is viewed as absurd.

Michel: Combine suggested less athleticism than many assumed.

K. Johnson: Poor 40 time and bad 3 cone, and horrible bench press. 

M. Walton: Was he not recovered from his ankle injury, is he that bad an athlete?

J. Kelly: Terrbile combine

Justin Jackson: Wear and tear on his body from heavy usage

 

My board, in as much as I have rankings right now kinda looks like this:

Tier 1:

Barkley

 

Tier 2:

Guice

Chubb

Freeman

Michel 

Penny

Jones

Walton*

 

Wild Card: 

Mark Walton

If his ankle injury is precisely why his tape and his 40 are so incongruous, and why his combine overall stunk, he could end up being a, or THE steal of the draft. 

 

For me the best values for now with the RB position are Royce Freeman (most productive guy alongside Barkley, and he had a fantastic combine), and Rashaad Penny if we can live with his horrific blocking skills. Both of those guys seem set to potentially go in mid round 2 to round 3 for now anyway. Haven't heard a lot of talk of them flying up into 2nd round valuation yet, so yeah, if those guys fell, I'd have ZERO problem with us trading down and getting a RB in round 3, but other than them, every other guy just strikes me as someone who will be picked in the top 42 or so. And Penny, I'm really not sure about, he had a great combine. 

 

 

 

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

All valid points. I think the draft is sort of easy to project with the top 5/6. Where it will be interesting is in the 7-12 range. If the teams in that range stay the same, it’ll be tough to project. If Chicago goes Ward it’ll have ripple effects. If SF goes Jackson or Ridley, same thing. 

 

One inferesting pick could be Indy. Assumptions are they go Chubb if he’s there at 6. But what if they went Roquan? 

[SemperFi Skins]

I want Roquan Smith.... no if's, ands, or butts about it..... Need a Sergeant of the defense

[The Consigliere]

8 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Thompson does not run like Wadley.  Thompson is a patient, canny runner who flows upfield.  He's a well rounded player who makes his mark on passing downs.

 

Wadley is a waterbug who creates for himself behind the line of scrimmage and is a home run hitter in space.

 

But, even if he were the same as or a slightly lesser version of Chris Thompson, that's not actually a bad thing.  Chris Thompson's biggest limitation is that we can't use him every down.

 

They both are viewed as satellite backs. It's the roles I'm talking about, not the styles. I don't think anyone sees Wadley as a 3 down back right now. 5'"10 194, that killed his draft stock in terms of 3 down back perception, add in the bad 40, not testing in the 3 cone, and the awful BP, and that clinched it. Maybe a team still tries him on as a starter, if he gets drafted in the top 75, I'd assume they'd be taking him to be their bell cow, but I don't see him going that high, especially after how Hines, and Edmunds and some others did at the combine. In Hines you get a similarly sized guy with a mediocre 3 cone, but a fantastic 40, and Edmonds has a similar profile in terms of speed, but can carry 10 more pounds and had an absurd 3 cone and the 3 cone is perhaps the most prized of the drills because of what it suggests about a players agility in tight spaces and the open field. Edmonds flat out blows Wadley out of the water in terms of in space skills for instance, and I imagine both he and Hines are higher than Wadley on nearly everyones boards.

 

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Lord have mercy.  That'd be a reach by a full round or more.

 

Moore is the #1 WR on a ton of boards right now.

*Ideal Size

 

Dominator (Market Share): 97th Percentile*

Breakout Age: 98th Percentile*

 

*The two most reliable markers for future success other than Draft Capital. 

 

then add in...

 

*Absurd Athleticism Scores:

95th Percentile Speed Score

94th Percentile Burst Score

71st Percentile Agility Score

91st Percentile SPARQ-x

87th Percentile Catch Radius

 

I expect him to go between the 10th and 20th pick. He's not going in the 2nd round. 

 

All this being said, I definitely don't want him. We should worry about WR in 2019, which should be a loaded class. We give Doctson, Crowder, and Richardson a year with Alex Smith, see if we like the development if not the production (no evidence Smith will utilize more than one WR in an offense, so we need to look for other signs that guys like Doctson and Richardson are legit answers), and if we don't, then we can worry about WR. Happily I think the signing of Richardson suggests we'll stand pat at the position in terms of the draft which is a good thing in my view. 

 

[HardcoreZorn]

23 minutes ago, SemperFi Skins said:

I want Roquan Smith.... no if's, ands, or butts about it..... Need a Sergeant of the defense

 

Question, can Roquan play alongside Brown? Meaning would he be a good fit next to Brown? I feel like somebody that talented you have to find a spot for no matter what on your defense but thought I had heard something about Brown and Smith not being a great combination together.

[SemperFi Skins]

I'd prefer Smith next to Foster..... Brown can't cover, Smith can. Smith has speed as well and Foster is the thumper. All 3 could be on the field in certain packages.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's how I see things unfolding ...

1. Cleveland - Sam Darnold, QB USC

2. New York Giants - Josh Rosen, QB UCLA

3. New York Jets - Josh Allen, QB Wyoming

4. Cleveland - Derwin James, S Florida State

5. Denver - Saquan Barkley, RB Penn State

6. Indianapolis - Bradley Chubb, DE NC State

7. Buffalo - Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma

8. Chicago - Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S Alabama

9. Arizona - Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville

10. Oakland - Roquan Smith, ILB Georgia

11. Miami - Connor Williams, OT Texas

12. Tampa Bay - Quenton Nelson, G Notre Dame

13. Washington .....

Nice job with the Tampa trade down, if they see Barkley and Chubb go right before they pick, after wiping away their tears, and leaving their therapists office, I'm betting they'd trade down too. 

[Burgold]

Curious. If the Redskins had the number one draft pick (and couldn't trade down) who do you think we should choose? 

 

I don't know enough, but I think I might go for Chubb (the D linemen edge rusher over Barkley)

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Curious. If the Redskins had the number one draft pick (and couldn't trade down) who do you think we should choose? 

 

I don't know enough, but I think I might go for Chubb (the D linemen edge rusher over Barkley)

Tough call. Chubb would probably be a BPA move but it doesn’t fit a huge need. By drafting Chubb you could use that to move on from Kerrigan in a year after extending Preston smith. And it would give you a dominant pass rush this year. But you also have Ryan Sanderson who’d be bumping to 4th rusher so idk. 

 

But if the team had Barkley-Nelson-Chubb all similarly ranked I think you go Nelson or Barkley. Barkley would give you 6-8 very good years. Nelson potentially 10-12, but at a less sexy position. 

 

Of of course with #1 I’d assume we never would have traded for Smith and would be taking either Rosen or Donald

[carex]

does anyone really believe Guice could actually go before the Skins pick or is it just justification if the Skins did something dumb and took him.  Because honestly the numbers just don't seem to add up.  I mean there's 12 teams picking ahead of us and considering the consensus on who deserves to be a high pick, since I'm no draft guru.  We have 4-6 QBs(figuring other teams could trade up as the numbers dwindle), one RB, one G, one DE, one DT(Vea as Payne seems to b  potential selection for us but would be a bit of a reach) two OLB, one ILB, 3 DB.

[The Consigliere]

9 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Curious. If the Redskins had the number one draft pick (and couldn't trade down) who do you think we should choose? 

 

I don't know enough, but I think I might go for Chubb (the D linemen edge rusher over Barkley)

 

I'd take either Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield. Since I knew we couldn't get any of them, I haven't done enough work studying them, if I had, I think i would have narrowed it to Rosen or Mayfield. 

 

[The Consigliere]

Oh and btw, I can't believe the Giants are seriously considering passing on QB at slot 2. That is just so, so, so thrilling to me as someone who hates the Giants passionately. That they actually luck into a top pick after one truly, truly bad season, in the best QB draft since 2004, just like they did in 2004, and unlike '04, they're idiots and pass on QB? That would just be fantastic. 

 

We've had to cope with the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants all drafting and developing franchise guys repeatedly over the years: the Eagles with Jaws, Cunningham, McNabb and now Wentz, the Giants with Simms, and Manning, the Cowboys with Staubach, White, Aikman, Romo and now potentially Prescott, and during that time period we've drafted and developed: Cousins. And that's it. Now the Giants get their chance for a third, and they ---- it away?

 

Nothing could be funnier. Yeah it would suck if they take Barkley because he's a lock to be the best NFC East Running Back in decades if not ever, and yeah it would suck if they traded down and ended up nailing multiple picks, but the one ever present threat to us in division is the successful drafting and development of a franchise QB, as they change EVERYTHING for a franchise, and yet they appear poised to sit tight with Manning, and instead either take a Guard, take Barkley, take Chubb or trade down. Just FANTASTIC!

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Moore is the #1 WR on a ton of boards right now.

*Ideal Size

 

Dominator (Market Share): 97th Percentile*

Breakout Age: 98th Percentile*

 

*The two most reliable markers for future success other than Draft Capital. 

 

then add in...

 

*Absurd Athleticism Scores:

95th Percentile Speed Score

94th Percentile Burst Score

71st Percentile Agility Score

91st Percentile SPARQ-x

87th Percentile Catch Radius

 

I expect him to go between the 10th and 20th pick. He's not going in the 2nd round. 

 

All this being said, I definitely don't want him. We should worry about WR in 2019, which should be a loaded class. We give Doctson, Crowder, and Richardson a year with Alex Smith, see if we like the development if not the production (no evidence Smith will utilize more than one WR in an offense, so we need to look for other signs that guys like Doctson and Richardson are legit answers), and if we don't, then we can worry about WR. Happily I think the signing of Richardson suggests we'll stand pat at the position in terms of the draft which is a good thing in my view. 

 

I agree with this entire post except the part about not taking Moore at #13.

 

I'm a firm believer in BPA and imo, that's what he is.

[The Consigliere]

10 minutes ago, carex said:

does anyone really believe Guice could actually go before the Skins pick or is it just justification if the Skins did something dumb and took him.  Because honestly the numbers just don't seem to add up.  I mean there's 12 teams picking ahead of us and considering the consensus on who deserves to be a high pick, since I'm no draft guru.  We have 4-6 QBs(figuring other teams could trade up as the numbers dwindle), one RB, one G, one DE, one DT(Vea as Payne seems to b  potential selection for us but would be a bit of a reach) two OLB, one ILB, 3 DB.

 

No, I don't see Guice going until the Baltimore, Seattle, Detroit grouping. All 3 could pass on him though, we don't know how people's boards look: I think some love Chubb, Jones, and Michel more than some would expect. I expect he will go somewhere between our pick and 20, otherwise I think he drops to the tail end of round 1 where he'll be selected either by a  team in there (maybe Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Atlanta, New England, Philly etc), or somebody trades up for him. 

 

But yeah, I don't think somebody's trading up for him inside the top 12, and I don't think anyone's sitting there that would grab him. I suppose maybe the Niners, but after the McKinnon deal, RB isn't as much of a need as other areas are like WR, OL and D.