stevemcqueen1

2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

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14 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Think I’m cool rolling with this mock:

 

*Trade 1.13 to Dallas for 1.19 and 2.18

1.19: Derrius Guice, RB LSU

2.12: Austin Corbett, G Nevada

2.18: Tim Settle, NT VT

4.9: Nick Nelson, CB Wisconsin

5.5: Quin Blanding, S UVA

5.26: ShaQ Griffin, LB UCF

6.31: Daurice Fountain, WR UNI

7.13: Cam Serigne, TE Wake

7.23: Javon Rolland-Jones, Edge Ark st 

I don't know any of these players other than Derrius..don't even know him... I don't watch college football at all, a little here and there I guess, but getting him and picking up a second second round pick I really love the sounds of.

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7 minutes ago, bakedtater1 said:

I'm trying to establish a possibility in my mind for landing the kid from Penn State..any help?

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Craig Hoffman on the air today said he talked directly to a Redskins scout, he couldn't reveal all that was told but he said he felt comfortable saying this much

 

A.  They think Payne and Vea are the standout DTs in the draft, there isn't a close 2nd in their eyes with anyone else and it doesn't matter whether you are talking 0-1, 3-5 technique, etc.

 

B.  They think Payne and Vea can play anywhere along the line and aren't just pure nose types

 

C.  After Barkley, Guice.  The next tier of RBs they like a lot of guys and like those guys in similar vein.   He didn't talk about specific RBs but the impression I got was to use a hypotheticals they'd like Chubb, Michel, Penny almost the same way or with very little variance.  The Guice point I am extrapolating on because Hoffman mentioned a trade down and taking him but not in the context of hearing that from the scout so I presume they like Guice over the next run of backs considering what others have said and the off handed way Hoffman threw that in the mix of his points.

 

The Payne/Vea point he made is somewhat consistent with Keim but not so much Cooley who thinks they like Payne hands down over Vea.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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52 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

A.  They think Payne and Vea are the standout DTs in the draft, there isn't a close 2nd in their eyes with anyone else and it doesn't matter whether you are talking 0-1, 3-5 technique, etc.

I hope this scout was working for Vinny years ago and is very drunk. If not Im going to be a sad panda come draft day.

Edited by fordranger76

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31 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

I hope this scout was working for Vinny years ago and is very drunk. If so Im going to be a sad panda come draft day.

 

Every now and then I'll try to puzzle various narratives from people saying they get from insiders and combine them to some kind of logic.  Based on that my current theory

 

To play out those scenarios as to a hypotheticals 

 

Plan A:  

1st:  Fitzpatrick Or James (though they are skeptical either one falls there)

2nd:  Best available RB -- maybe Penny at that point?

4th:  Best available DT or OG

 

The thing I hate about going in the draft with multiple screaming needs is even though Fitzpatrick is my favorite possible get -- going for a position from the get go that isn't as screaming of a need sort of upsets the apple cart as to fixing the glaring holes.  Nonetheless, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

Plan B.

1st.  Trade down.  Take Payne (since he's the guy the most likely to still be there later in the draft -- this is what Cooley thinks they are thinking ) 

2nd:  take best RB available - am guessing its Penny since the others are likely gone

3rd:  Take best OG --B. Smith, Clapp, Corbett, Madison, or whomever

 

Plan C.

1st.  Trade down.  Take Guice if if he's gone the next best one they like 

2nd:  take best DT available -- Phillips, Settle, Hill or whomever

3rd:  Take best OG -- B. Smith, Clapp, Corbett, Madison, or whomever

 

I know its very need based exercise and I am a BPA guy but it seems like at least behind the scenes they are telegraphing that they are relying on the draft to fill in gaps in particular at DT, RB, OG.  It sounds like they are justifying it by suggesting this draft is set up where needs meet BPA.  the irony is if they love Fitzpatrick as many say they do and they are lucky and he falls to them it actually makes it difficult to do the whole needs based drill.   For two reasons -- you aren't trading down and adding a pick.  I think its critical to have a third rounder to help meet all their needs.  And the other part of it would be 1 their 2 major needs won't be addressed into the 4th round -- the draft is a crap shoot but the 4th round is clearly a much bigger crap shoot round than the first two rounds.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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3 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I think there are some guys to be bad in the 4th or 5th at NT that have upside. The question is are we willing to gamble on waiting that long to go DL?

 

if Minkah is there and we don’t trade down and we take him, then go RB like Chubb at 44 ... you’re waiting til Round 4/5 to address the trenches 

Questions I have - are those 4th-5th rounders capable of playing more than just nose?  Is a pure nose worth it given the limited snaps they’d play?  Are those later round guys going to beat out  the experienced guys - Hood/Taylor-McClain - especially if the experienced guys have more versatility?  

 

Depending on those answers, are the guys in the 4th/5th worth it compared with picking a corner, S, OLB, ILB, or TE that we (generally speaking) actually have a roster spot for?

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@Skinsinparadise I understand your theories. My concern lies two fold. If that is really their thinking why is it getting out so easily? The Vea/Payne love that the reporters have been getting out there is disturbing to say the least. As in the hamfisted approach that nothing else is close to them. That's just crazy talk IMO. If it is indeed true that they are so high on them why are they not keeping it closer to the vest? Why leak out whom you want. I can't see any possible benefit from that. I hope to God its all smoke at this point. 

 

The other concern I have is if they feel that Vea/Payne is the answer then I am even more confused at a low ball offer to Hankins. If they feel that the need is so great for that run stuffer NT then why in the world would they offer what is presumably a low contract offer to a top end run stuffer. You go cheap there but are willing to invest that kind of draft capital on the same position? They cannot possibly think that either one of them is of Hankins ilk can they? It's all very confusing to me. I do know that where there is smoke there is also fire but I also know smoke is used with mirrors too. 

 

At the end of the day I hope that the scouting department is not as loose lipped as it appears to be right now. The leaking of information only harms the team overall and provides no benefit to be upfront truthful. In my head its just all bull**** and they are hoping Vea and Payne are taken before Phillips who they are secretly coveting. That's my hope at least.

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35 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

@Skinsinparadise I understand your theories..

 

These aren't my theories.  I am trying to piece together their theories. 

 

35 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

If that is really their thinking why is it getting out so easily? 

 

Don't know.  I've commented on this before.  I can't recall a draft with so much of their thinking out there.  I trust Keim and Finlay the most on this front because I recall some of their pre 2017 theories about that years draft were borne out as for their priorities, etc.   

 

Heck I recall one beat guy saying that they love Jonathan Allen but don't expect him to fall (sounds very similar to the Fitzpatrick stuff now).  I recall reading about Jay flying down to interview Ryan Anderson right before the draft.   The idea that they loved Reuben Foster.  Keim saying they liked D. Cook but he's not top on their list.  Not everything played out that year as it was telegraphed but there was enough that added up to making sense in retrospect.  And this speculation was purely on the top 2 rounds not later rounds. 

 

This year the players linked to them from different sources:  Vea, Payne, Guice, Chubb, Penny, Fitzpatrick, James, J. Jackson, B. Price.   Obviously they aren't going to end up with all of them.  But I'd bet there is a better than even shot one of those guys ends up a Redskin.  Shanny seemed obsessed with misdirection when it came to leaks-media.  Jay's regime not so much.  But will see.

 

35 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

 The Vea/Payne love that the reporters have been getting out there is disturbing to say the least. As in the hamfisted approach that nothing else is close to them. That's just crazy talk IMO. If it is indeed true that they are so high on them why are they not keeping it closer to the vest? Why leak out whom you want. I can't see any possible benefit from that. I hope to God its all smoke at this point. 

 

They aren't saying though they are drafting them.  The most telegraphed leak (if true) they have that I'd keep close to my vest in their shoes (but too late for that) is that if Fitzpatrick or James are there at 13, they will take them. 

 

In their defense though you got a bunch of things associated with different teams and different players.  Tampa supposedly loving D. James. and D. Ward. The Jets and Dolphins loving Mayfield. Bills loving Allen.   49ers poking hard around Davenport.  Packers - Landry or surprise drop for a player from the secondary.  Eagles - Guice.  Ravens - Ridley.  All true?  Who knows?  

 

35 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

 

The other concern I have is if they feel that Vea/Payne is the answer then I am even more confused at a low ball offer to Hankins. If they feel that the need is so great for that run stuffer NT then why in the world would they offer what is presumably a low contract offer to a top end run stuffer.

  

It doesn't seem out of place to me.  It would be money driven.  Why pay 8 million when you can get a guy on the cheap. (personally, I'd pay Hankins, though)  And maybe they think Vea and or Payne are more versatile than Hankins.  Who knows.   Doug flat out said stopping the run is their priority right along with running the ball better.  So yeah they get it is a priority.  Whether they address that priority is another story. 

 

But piecing together those narratives, I didn't say Vea-Payne are their top targets in the draft.  I flat out said it looks like its James-Fitzpatrick (Keim and Finlay's narrative) but if neither fall to 13, then what?  Cooley thinks their Plan B is to trade to trade down and land Payne later in the draft and recoup their third.  Will see if the beat guys are being played or have a real idea as their thinking soon enough.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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@Skinsinparadise Sorry I did not meant to misquote you. What I was meaning was the theory part of what has been said that's out there currently. I am seeing a lot of the Payne/Vita stuff myself from national guys on the smaller scale reporting sites. A huge amount of people with blogs/draft sites/rumors and the like have been reporting the exact same things. When they wind up drafting Quinton Nelson we can all have a good laugh at it all anyways because he for some goofy reason slipped past 12 other teams.

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43 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

@Skinsinparadise Sorry I did not meant to misquote you. What I was meaning was the theory part of what has been said that's out there currently. I am seeing a lot of the Payne/Vita stuff myself from national guys on the smaller scale reporting sites. A huge amount of people with blogs/draft sites/rumors and the like have been reporting the exact same things. When they wind up drafting Quinton Nelson we can all have a good laugh at it all anyways because he for some goofy reason slipped past 12 other teams.

 

No problem I didn't think you misquoted me I just wanted to clarify that this isn't me coming at the draft with my take but their take.  

 

Of all the stuff beat guys have said the only concrete "wows I can't believe they did that" I can think of if they did something different would be:

 

A. Fitzpatrick or Ward land at 13 and they do something different.  Trading down though wouldn't seem out of place with the narratives.

B. They trade down in the first and don't take Guice, Vea, Payne, J. Jackson if they are there

C.  If they don't take a RB in round 1 and fish in round 2, if Penny or Chubb or Jones are still there they skip them.

 

The thing is as we know BPA is almost always full of surprises especially in the 2nd so lets say someone like Vander Esch falls to their 2nd round pick -- it seems conceivable to me that they just take him versus go lets say RB. 

 

And you got me maybe its all smoke.  But heck even if its just pure entertainment value its fun for me to try to piece together all the narratives because most of these narratives easily flow together.  The biggest discrepancy that I can tell is Cooley is sold that they like Payne distinctly over Vea.  Keim and Hoffman suggest its about equal -- Keim even thinks if anything its Vea more.   If true there seems no ambiguity from anyone that D. James or Fitzpatrick are their dream falls to 13. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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Looked up scouting report on Nelson...... 50 strengths and 1 weakness (good but not rare talent). How the **** do you say that if you haven't listed any actual weaknesses. 

 

Hypothetical question:

 

We have the first pick in the draft who do you pick Nelson or Barkley? 

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1 hour ago, tmandoug1 said:

Hypothetical question:

 

We have the first pick in the draft who do you pick Nelson or Barkley? 

 

Trade back with a team that wants a QB. 

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This seems to me like they are trying to bait people into trading up with them who are interested in certain players.  That doesn’t mean that they won’t draft X player mentioned if they are there but I would bet they didn’t get what they feel was good compensation for the trade up.  Couple these reports with “we might draft a qb there if we like him”.   Again maybe that happens (hard to believe with picking up Smith) but it’s my bet they are trying to sell the pick.  I’m with the people who think they need a third or another second to help fill there needs.  

 

My dream scenario is seeing them trading down and still landing Vea. I don’t see Payne as a first round talent and given their situation I think I’d rather see additional draft picks vs picking the likely suspects Fitzpatrick, James, Ward, probably Vea as well.  If Barkley Nelson or roquan Smith is there I would demand premium compensation or I’d pick them but I bet it’s not an issue.

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It seems like the folks that have Guice as their man if they get in the 20s might be right.  I think Ridley also might be the target.

 

 

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6 hours ago, fordranger76 said:

@Skinsinparadise In my head its just all bull**** and they are hoping Vea and Payne are taken before Phillips who they are secretly coveting. That's my hope at least.

Fordranger are you saying you hope we draft harrison phillips at 13?

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from a guy here who covers the Dolphins.  I think the Dolphins are the team most likely to rain on my parade for getting Fitzpatrick.  That's why I am rooting for them to trade up for a QB which is being talked about some here.   The other thing that would help is if Tampa gets a surprise drop to their pick like Q. Nelson or they take D. Ward.  Tampa-Miami seem to be the teams most linked to Derwin James, Fitzpatrick lately. 

 

 
  • Matthew Cannata Retweeted Devil’s Advocate

    In no particular order because I don't know the order: Josh Rosen Baker Mayfield Derwin James Minkah Fitzpatrick Roquan Smith Tremaine Edmunds

    Matthew Cannata added,

     
Edited by Skinsinparadise

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12 hours ago, bakedtater1 said:

I'm trying to establish a possibility in my mind for landing the kid from Penn State..any help?

He gets caught on tape murdering a busload of kids with a chain saw the night before the draft and then is arrested.  He slips all the way to the 7th and the Skins take him with their second 7th rounder. News comes out that heck it was all a big misunderstanding as it was a movie scene that he was in and no one really died - charges are dropped. 

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9 hours ago, tmandoug1 said:

Looked up scouting report on Nelson...... 50 strengths and 1 weakness (good but not rare talent). How the **** do you say that if you haven't listed any actual weaknesses. 

 

Hypothetical question:

 

We have the first pick in the draft who do you pick Nelson or Barkley? 

 

 

Rosen, or Mayfield. Slight chance of Darnold. No way in hell would I take the other two above them.

 

If that's all you're asking though, who do you take between those two if those are the only options, then I take Barkley. Barkley's a dynamic game changing option. Nelson isn't. Nelson if part of a great unit, would be a great asset, but on his own, he's just one piece of a five to six or seven piece blocking unit. There's only so much value there, and no where near as much as a potential franchise QB or Barkley. It's why I'd NEVER EVER stop laughing if the Giants took Nelson at two. It would be 1000% pure idiocy. 

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10 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

No problem I didn't think you misquoted me I just wanted to clarify that this isn't me coming at the draft with my take but their take.  

 

Of all the stuff beat guys have said the only concrete "wows I can't believe they did that" I can think of if they did something different would be:

 

A. Fitzpatrick or Ward land at 13 and they do something different.  Trading down though wouldn't seem out of place with the narratives.

B. They trade down in the first and don't take Guice, Vea, Payne, J. Jackson if they are there

C.  If they don't take a RB in round 1 and fish in round 2, if Penny or Chubb or Jones are still there they skip them.

 

The thing is as we know BPA is almost always full of surprises especially in the 2nd so lets say someone like Vander Esch falls to their 2nd round pick -- it seems conceivable to me that they just take him versus go lets say RB. 

 

And you got me maybe its all smoke.  But heck even if its just pure entertainment value its fun for me to try to piece together all the narratives because most of these narratives easily flow together.  The biggest discrepancy that I can tell is Cooley is sold that they like Payne distinctly over Vea.  Keim and Hoffman suggest its about equal -- Keim even thinks if anything its Vea more.   If true there seems no ambiguity from anyone that D. James or Fitzpatrick are their dream falls to 13. 

 

A is that scenario that I think would cause the roof to cave in, and it can definitely happen. If any of Fitzpatrick, James and Ward are there, those DT's shouldn't even enter the discussion, but if they're the pick, oh gawd is it going to be bad and w/good reason. There are a TON of red flags with those DTs, with production and athleticism, the two biggest indicators of future success, being liabilities and being ignored anyway because scouts are morons. It is bad freaking process to have models built that help in these area's and these idiots will just look at the Alabama gear on the one hand, and the sheer size and potential otoh, and ignore the biggest indicators we have of future success because of a couple of flash plays, and Alabama pedigree. So annoying. There are way too many red flags with those guys. If we're at slot, and the DB's are gone, we should be taking guide, or trading down, period. If you're dead set on a DT, at least mitigate some risk by trading down first, then taking them. 

 

 

6 hours ago, Mannix said:

It seems like the folks that have Guice as their man if they get in the 20s might be right.  I think Ridley also might be the target.

 

 

 

I might have to turn in my fan card if that was the pick. 

 

 

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Production is important, but it isn't the end all.  Especially not with Alabama defenders.  Minkah was one of the best defensive players in the country, we all agree he's one of the best defensive players in this class, and he didn't exactly fill up the stat sheet.

 

These guys play low snap counts in balanced units where everyone executes and there isn't really room for one stud defender to pile up numbers like there is on lesser defenses.

 

You have to measure their level of execution by charting plays and grading them.

 

DaRon Payne is a good prospect and he offers decent value at 13.  He's a little undersized but the on field performance is good enough to prove he wasn't hindered by size at a very competitive level of college football.  And the flipside is that he doesn't carry around any bad weight.  He can stay on the field all three downs and he holds up through the fourth quarter.  And he has the tools and ability to play the 1, 3, and 5, so he brings DL versatility to the table.  He is very explosive off the snap and a very good runner for a DT.  Better athlete than people realize.  Superb technician.  Pads stay low, never gives up ground.  Balance is as good as it gets and has the athleticism to hit ball carriers off his frame and you see the result in his unusually good tackle numbers for an Alabama nose.  Great punch, great arm extension, good arm length at 33.  Very, very strong hands.  Immovable anchor at the 0 and 1 and spent a lot of time holding his ground against doubles this year.  College guys who are comfortable against doubles project well to the NFL.  Play recognition is solid. 

 

Bottom line, Payne is super clean and he's a different kind of nose.  He can run.  Good push-pull, bull, and arm over rusher.  Fast enough to twist and stunt.  No counters but he has upside as a rusher because of his speed and power.  Depends on the scheme.  If he plays a similar role for his NFL team that he did for Alabama, probably not gonna generate a lot of pressure.  But he'll play dominant two gap rush defense.

 

Obviously Minkah is better than him.  So are Roquan and the Florida State safety.  Tremaine Edmunds also has higher upside.  Harold Landry is probably better too.  I'm not advocating taking Payne over those guys.  But he wouldn't be an awful reach at 13, and he'd be really good value if we dropped down a few spots.  He's got fringe Pro-bowl talent.  Sort of like Corey Liuget only stronger and not as sloppy around the middle.  If you added him to our rotation he could start at the 1 tech immediately and we'd have a really impressive and quick group between him, Allen, and Ioannidis.

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10 hours ago, XxSpearheadxX said:

Fordranger are you saying you hope we draft harrison phillips at 13?

No not at all. I am for a trade back if possible. What I am saying is that in my eyes he is the best NT in the draft IMO. 25-32 range though? Yes.

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@stevemcqueen1 I am one of the few who agree with you about Payne. Im still pretty high on him over and of the other DTs. Watching him play was fun. He already looked like a pro and just stands out on the field. 

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Anthony Miller, that would be interesting, I like him aside from his age. And isn't he more of a slot?  I'd guess though 2nd rounder.  I am paying attention to the later visits because I recall the late visit with Ryan Anderson last year -- might be irrelevant/incidental but who knows,

 

 

DT Da'Ron Payne, WR Anthony Miller and RB Derrius Guice are all scheduled to visit the #Redskins for a Top-30 visit tomorrow.

 

 

Top Red Zone draft receivers, Anthony Miller’s 11 TD’s is exceptional... (Credit @JuMosq)

Da5kN4MWAAEY7ah.jpg

 

 

 

Kent Lee Platte @MathBomb 10h10 hours ago

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Anthony Miller's official pro day numbers put his #RAS well within elite territory. Good speed, great explosion and very good agility round it all out.

Da3tWd7WkAA8W39.jpg
Edited by Skinsinparadise

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Running back Derrius Guice is visiting Redskins Park Monday, a source said. Guice had posted on snapshot Sunday night that he was in Washington, D.C. so this isn't a big surprise. The Redskins have been deeply interested in Guice; team president Bruce Allen had dinner with him the night before his pro day at LSU. The question remains as to whether or not they'd use the 13th overall choice on him.They do like a handful of other players in that spot, too. And they could always trade back and then take Guice, if that's who they desire. But they clearly have serious interest in him. Upgrading the running back position will be a priority entering the draft.

 
i?img=%2Fi%2Fcolumnists%2Ffull%2Fkeim_john.png&w=80&h=80&scale=crop
John Keim, ESPN Staff Writer2m ago

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