JSSkinz Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I didnt realize how brutal Detroit's schedule was, they are resilient as hell but if they slip up they could definately lose out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 13 hours ago, Fergasun said: 9-5-1 is better than 10-6 for winning percentage. I guess whoever plays better will get in -- I love the final 4 weeks of NFL! A team can't finish 9-5-1 though (15 games). 10-6 would either be better than 9-6-1 or worse than 10-5-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewCliche21 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 22 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said: A team can't finish 9-5-1 though (15 games). 10-6 would either be better than 9-6-1 or worse than 10-5-1. I don't think that's how it works. 10-5-1 = 10 wins plus 0.5 wins (tie) divided by 16, giving you 65.6% 10-6 = 10 wins divided by 16, giving you 62.5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 24 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said: I don't think that's how it works. 10-5-1 = 10 wins plus 0.5 wins (tie) divided by 16, giving you 65.6% 10-6 = 10 wins divided by 16, giving you 62.5% I think we're saying the same thing... 10-5-1 > 10-6 > 9-6-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCdangerous Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Fivethirtyeight.com now has the option for you to predict the outcome of the next three games.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo With this I figured out how the Redskins can make it into the playoffs before Week 17: 1) Redskins of course need to win next two games (CAR, @CHI) 2) Detroit needs to lose next two games (@NYG, @DAL) 3) Tampa Bay needs to lose next two games (@DAL, @NO) -OR lose two games over the course of Weeks 15-17 4) Green Bay has to beat Minnesota in Week 16 -OR- Minnesota needs to lose in Week 15 (IND) before they beat Green Bay Week 16 After that, the Redskins have a more than 99% chance of getting in. They don't even have to play the Giants at all. When Green Bay plays Detroit in Week 17, it doesn't matter who wins. The winner is the NFC North champ, and we use our tie to jump over the loser into the playoffs. Detroit had its fun, but I think the road games will hurt them. Green Bay is on a roll and will take care of Minnesota. The one I fear is unlikely is Tampa Bay losing to the Saints (or even the Panthers in Week 17). I am certain Dallas will straighten out and kick butt, but I am unsure about New Orleans (or Carolina) finishing them off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 5:54 PM, DCdangerous said: Fivethirtyeight.com now has the option for you to predict the outcome of the next three games.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo With this I figured out how the Redskins can make it into the playoffs before Week 17: 1) Redskins of course need to win next two games (CAR, @CHI) 2) Detroit needs to lose next two games (@NYG, @DAL) 3) Tampa Bay needs to lose next two games (@DAL, @NO) -OR lose two games over the course of Weeks 15-17 4) Green Bay has to beat Minnesota in Week 16 -OR- Minnesota needs to lose in Week 15 (IND) before they beat Green Bay Week 16 After that, the Redskins have a more than 99% chance of getting in. They don't even have to play the Giants at all. When Green Bay plays Detroit in Week 17, it doesn't matter who wins. The winner is the NFC North champ, and we use our tie to jump over the loser into the playoffs. Detroit had its fun, but I think the road games will hurt them. Green Bay is on a roll and will take care of Minnesota. The one I fear is unlikely is Tampa Bay losing to the Saints (or even the Panthers in Week 17). I am certain Dallas will straighten out and kick butt, but I am unsure about New Orleans (or Carolina) finishing them off. Nice research! I also fear that getting a win on Monday night is one of the toughest dominoes that needs to fall. What do 9-6-1 scenarios look like if we lose to Carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain James Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Carolina still has a chance to make the playoffs, correct? Too bad because it would have been awesome for them to start pulling starters by our game Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 5:54 PM, DCdangerous said: Fivethirtyeight.com now has the option for you to predict the outcome of the next three games.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo With this I figured out how the Redskins can make it into the playoffs before Week 17: 1) Redskins of course need to win next two games (CAR, @CHI) 2) Detroit needs to lose next two games (@NYG, @DAL) 3) Tampa Bay needs to lose next two games (@DAL, @NO) -OR lose two games over the course of Weeks 15-17 4) Green Bay has to beat Minnesota in Week 16 -OR- Minnesota needs to lose in Week 15 (IND) before they beat Green Bay Week 16 After that, the Redskins have a more than 99% chance of getting in. They don't even have to play the Giants at all. When Green Bay plays Detroit in Week 17, it doesn't matter who wins. The winner is the NFC North champ, and we use our tie to jump over the loser into the playoffs. Detroit had its fun, but I think the road games will hurt them. Green Bay is on a roll and will take care of Minnesota. The one I fear is unlikely is Tampa Bay losing to the Saints (or even the Panthers in Week 17). I am certain Dallas will straighten out and kick butt, but I am unsure about New Orleans (or Carolina) finishing them off. The problem is Tampa. They're legit. They may not even lose to Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spearfeather Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 2:54 PM, DCdangerous said: With this I figured out how the Redskins can make it into the playoffs before Week 17: 1) Redskins of course need to win next two games (CAR, @CHI) 2) Detroit needs to lose next two games (@NYG, @DAL) 3) Tampa Bay needs to lose next two games (@DAL, @NO) -OR lose two games over the course of Weeks 15-17 4) Green Bay has to beat Minnesota in Week 16 -OR- Minnesota needs to lose in Week 15 (IND) before they beat Green Bay Week 16 If, 1), 3) and 4) happen, why do we need 2) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kleese Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 On 12/16/2016 at 5:12 PM, Spearfeather said: If, 1), 3) and 4) happen, why do we need 2) ? Without Detroit losing twice it leaves the door open that the second place North team could beat us out at 10-6. Remember this is ONLY talking about how we clinch BEFORE week 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spearfeather Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 4 hours ago, kleese said: Without Detroit losing twice it leaves the door open that the second place North team could beat us out at 10-6. Remember this is ONLY talking about how we clinch BEFORE week 17. Scenario 4) entails Green Bay and Minnesota both losing one game each in the next two games, which puts each of them at 7 losses before week 17. We would only have 5 losses with one game to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kleese Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 10 minutes ago, Spearfeather said: Scenario 4) entails Green Bay and Minnesota both losing one game each in the next two games, which puts each of them at 7 losses before week 17. We would only have 5 losses with one game to go. GB can actually win their next two games and we could still clinch if Detroit loses both. That sceanario doesn't say anything about GB losing to Chicago-- so if they beat Min and Chi, then we would need Detroit to lose both. Then both teams would have six losses heading into week 17-- meaning the loser winds up with 7. We would just need to make sure they don't tie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spearfeather Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 13 hours ago, kleese said: GB can actually win their next two games and we could still clinch if Detroit loses both. That sceanario doesn't say anything about GB losing to Chicago-- so if they beat Min and Chi, then we would need Detroit to lose both. Then both teams would have six losses heading into week 17-- meaning the loser winds up with 7. We would just need to make sure they don't tie... Yes, I got that, but ... Quote 4) Green Bay has to beat Minnesota in Week 16 -OR- Minnesota needs to lose in Week 15 (IND) before they beat Green Bay Week 16 If Minnesota loses this week and wins next week, GB and Minnesota would both have 7 losses. Or to put it another way, we win the next two, Tampa loses the next two, and GB and Minn lose one each ( over the next two games ) ... We're in, right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kleese Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Spearfeather said: Yes, I got that, but ... If Minnesota loses this week and wins next week, GB and Minnesota would both have 7 losses. Or to put it another way, we win the next two, Tampa loses the next two, and GB and Minn lose one each ( over the next two games ) ... We're in, right ? Yes, although not "technically" because if Det and GB tie and we lose to the Giants we'd be out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spearfeather Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spearfeather Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diehard Otis Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 You know, there is one scenario that I haven't seen mentioned yet. If Atlanta loses, that puts us IN before our game. As long as we continue to Win, one Falcons loss does the trick for us. And there is indeed some likelihood of that happening: their remaining schedule is -San Francisco -@Carolina -New Orleans Finishing up with those 2 Divisional Games is key here. Although it's probably wishful thinking that the 49ers could beat the birds in the Georgia Dome, that Week 16 Road Game against Carolina (especially if we beat 'em) looks very promising. If they drop that one, we're IN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spearfeather Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Quote kleese said: Yes, although not "technically" because if Det and GB tie and we lose to the Giants we'd be out. but also, what would GB's record be ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kleese Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 47 minutes ago, Spearfeather said: but also, what would GB's record be ? GB would either be 10-6 or 9-7 depending on if they win or lose. But if Det loses their next two it doesn't matter because the loser is guaranteed to be 9-7 and thus behind us. Things will be made somewhat clearer by the end of the day. Hopefully at least some of these go our direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spearfeather Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 3 hours ago, kleese said: GB would either be 10-6 or 9-7 depending on if they win or lose. But if Det loses their next two it doesn't matter because the loser is guaranteed to be 9-7 and thus behind us. Things will be made somewhat clearer by the end of the day. Hopefully at least some of these go our direction. I was referring to your Det - GB tie scenario: Quote Yes, although not "technically" because if Det and GB tie and we lose to the Giants we'd be out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kleese Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, Spearfeather said: I was referring to your Det - GB tie scenario: We'd all be 9-6-1...GB wins North based on head to head tie breaker with Lions. Lions win tie breaker with us based on head to head win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spearfeather Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 3 hours ago, kleese said: We'd all be 9-6-1...GB wins North based on head to head tie breaker with Lions. Lions win tie breaker with us based on head to head win. Yes, I guess that's what I was really asking. ( Edit: Don't think that would matter, because in the above scenario GB would have already had 7 losses ) So, just to review: We win next two. Tampa loses next two. GB and Minn each lose one of next two. ( Edit : If GB loses one of their next two, they could not finish 9 - 6 -1 ) We're in. Right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Det-GB is irrelevant because one of those two(or Minnesota but they appear to be out of it with that offense)has to win their division anyway. I doubt either will be in the Wild Card race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Beating Carolina tomorrow night is the real key. Initially I wanted the Giants to lose today with the hopes of them stumbling and possibly being out of the playoffs entirely, but then I realized it might actually be better for the 'Skins if the Giants have the 5th seed locked up before Week 17 that way their starters exit the game early, especially if the defense puts a good hit or two on Eli Manning early. Honestly, the Lions/Giants game is sort of a win-win for the 'Skins either way, because it features two teams ahead of the 'Skins for the playoffs, and while Detroit is a division leader at the moment, that may not be the case in a week or so. All of the contenders in the NFC North still play each other, so it might be best for the Pack to go on a tear and end up winning the division which means they will have ended up likely knocking the Vikes and Lions out of the playoffs entirely. Bottomline is, if the 'Skins beat Carolina tomorrow night, good things are likely to happen. If not? So much help will be needed to get into the playoffs, even if they win their last two games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOSKINS_08 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Vikings basically done now, so another team out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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