Combo Thread: Redskins Flex Scheduling Updates/Playoff Positioning Updates

[kleese]

Well, that was gross. 

 

But it there is also some misinformation going on in this thread. 

 

First of all, we do NOT need Green Bay to lose. They can win both of their remaining games and we can still make the playoffs. 

 

Tonight's loss virtually closes the door on the Redskins losing again and still making it. There actually is a scenario where we finish 1-1 and still make it, but it's pretty far fetched and I don't think it's worth talking about. 

 

So while the Panthers loss is a total bummer and a bad thing all around-- one "positive" is that it does somewhat simplify what needs to happen from here on out. 

 

First things first, we need to win two. I'm honestly not worried about week 17. I firmly believe the Giants will have the 5 seed locked up at that point and I have a hard time seeing them risk injury by playing starters or even game planning too much for that game. More importantly, it won't matter if we don't beat Chicago, so all focus on the Bears. 

 

So from here on out, we assume the Skins win both and finish 9-6-1. 

 

Here is what we need to happen to get in. We need one scenario in the North and one scenario in the South to play out for us. 

 

1. The Bucs lose one OR the Falcons lose two

 

2. The Packers lose one OR the Lions lose two. 

 

The sexond part part of that seems highly likely to me-- simply because GB and Det play each other week 17. Let's say GB wins vs Minn and Det loses to Dallas. Then it's a done deal-- we finish ahead of whoever finishes second there. If GB loses to Minn it's a done deal. If Det loses to Dallas it's a done deal. If they BOTH win this week then we'd need Detroit to beat GB in week 17. 

 

The first part is the more nerve-wracking one, but I'd hardly call it a log shot-- TB at NO is far froma

gimmie and is honestly probably a 50/50 game. And we have seen Carolina the last two weeks prove they aren't rolling over-- so even if Tampa wins in NO, the Panthers could still take them out week 17. And you know Carolina would play that game all out. Atlanta is more of a stretch, but they do play the Panthers and Saints as well- so 0-2 isn't completely out of the question. 

 

Your viewing guide this week is simple: 

 

1. Redskins at Bears: We played horribly tonight. Just awful. Didn't look anywhere near being a playoff team. If this is who we are right now then Chicago will end us next week. However, this is a week to week league and I suspect we will bounce back and at least deliver a sharper performance. Could we still lose? Yes, for sure. But gun to my head, I think we go in there and escape with a W to keep hope alive. 

 

2. Bucs at Saints: Tampa looked alright in Dallas-- shot themselves in the foot on a few occasions. They are better than NO, but the Saints erupted last week and might be getting out of their offensive slump. I believe the Saints will bring all they have in an effort to beat a division rival. This is a late afternoon game next week so we won't know while we are playing any results here. 

 

3. Detroit at Dallas: I rank this above the Packers game because I think this one is more realistic to fall our way. Hopefully Dallas is still needing to clinch division when this one kicks off on Monday Night. 

 

4. Minnesota at Green Bay: I think this one is futile as the Vikes are toast, but a GB loss would be all we need to erase the North from our radar. 

 

5. Falcons at Panthers: Might as well root for Carolina. Who knows-- if they win then Atlanta would HAVE to beat the Saints the following week and that wouldn't be a automatic win by any means. If Panthers win this one it also likely motivates them to finish strong the next week in Tampa. 

 

6. Giants at Eagles: Want the Giants here. Want them to win in order to keep Dallas hungry on MNF and to make it more likely Giants have seed locked by the time week 17 rolls around. 

 

My prediction? I say we sneak out of Chicago with a win and the Lions lose in Dallas, eliminating the North from the mix. 

 

I then predict Atlanta LOSES to Carolina and Tampa wins a squeaker in New Orleans. 

 

If those predictions came to pass we'd be playing the Giants in a game that meant nothing to them week 17 needing a win and EITHER a Falcons loss to Saints or a Bucs loss to Panthers to get in. 

 

 

[aolforbroadband]

Thank you for your updated permutations.

 

I think we'll bounce back against the Bears, but I agree, we will escape with a victory if we do manage to pull off a win (similar to last year.) The Bears are one of the only teams we still seem to beat regularly despite our record. The Lions used to be until they drafted Matt Stafford, who has owned us since he came into the league. Cam Newton as well with the Panthers.

 

The Giants game will be the most difficult by far, so hopefully they'll have nothing to play for by then.

[Sherlock Holmes]

3 hours ago, kleese said:

Well, that was gross. 

 

But it there is also some misinformation going on in this thread. 

 

First of all, we do NOT need Green Bay to lose. They can win both of their remaining games and we can still make the playoffs. 

 

Tonight's loss virtually closes the door on the Redskins losing again and still making it. There actually is a scenario where we finish 1-1 and still make it, but it's pretty far fetched and I don't think it's worth talking about. 

 

So while the Panthers loss is a total bummer and a bad thing all around-- one "positive" is that it does somewhat simplify what needs to happen from here on out. 

 

First things first, we need to win two. I'm honestly not worried about week 17. I firmly believe the Giants will have the 5 seed locked up at that point and I have a hard time seeing them risk injury by playing starters or even game planning too much for that game. More importantly, it won't matter if we don't beat Chicago, so all focus on the Bears. 

 

So from here on out, we assume the Skins win both and finish 9-6-1. 

 

Here is what we need to happen to get in. We need one scenario in the North and one scenario in the South to play out for us. 

 

1. The Bucs lose one OR the Falcons lose two

 

2. The Packers lose one OR the Lions lose two. 

 

The sexond part part of that seems highly likely to me-- simply because GB and Det play each other week 17. Let's say GB wins vs Minn and Det loses to Dallas. Then it's a done deal-- we finish ahead of whoever finishes second there. If GB loses to Minn it's a done deal. If Det loses to Dallas it's a done deal. If they BOTH win this week then we'd need Detroit to beat GB in week 17. 

 

The first part is the more nerve-wracking one, but I'd hardly call it a log shot-- TB at NO is far froma

gimmie and is honestly probably a 50/50 game. And we have seen Carolina the last two weeks prove they aren't rolling over-- so even if Tampa wins in NO, the Panthers could still take them out week 17. And you know Carolina would play that game all out. Atlanta is more of a stretch, but they do play the Panthers and Saints as well- so 0-2 isn't completely out of the question. 

 

Your viewing guide this week is simple: 

 

1. Redskins at Bears: We played horribly tonight. Just awful. Didn't look anywhere near being a playoff team. If this is who we are right now then Chicago will end us next week. However, this is a week to week league and I suspect we will bounce back and at least deliver a sharper performance. Could we still lose? Yes, for sure. But gun to my head, I think we go in there and escape with a W to keep hope alive. 

 

2. Bucs at Saints: Tampa looked alright in Dallas-- shot themselves in the foot on a few occasions. They are better than NO, but the Saints erupted last week and might be getting out of their offensive slump. I believe the Saints will bring all they have in an effort to beat a division rival. This is a late afternoon game next week so we won't know while we are playing any results here. 

 

3. Detroit at Dallas: I rank this above the Packers game because I think this one is more realistic to fall our way. Hopefully Dallas is still needing to clinch division when this one kicks off on Monday Night. 

 

4. Minnesota at Green Bay: I think this one is futile as the Vikes are toast, but a GB loss would be all we need to erase the North from our radar. 

 

5. Falcons at Panthers: Might as well root for Carolina. Who knows-- if they win then Atlanta would HAVE to beat the Saints the following week and that wouldn't be a automatic win by any means. If Panthers win this one it also likely motivates them to finish strong the next week in Tampa. 

 

6. Giants at Eagles: Want the Giants here. Want them to win in order to keep Dallas hungry on MNF and to make it more likely Giants have seed locked by the time week 17 rolls around. 

 

My prediction? I say we sneak out of Chicago with a win and the Lions lose in Dallas, eliminating the North from the mix. 

 

I then predict Atlanta LOSES to Carolina and Tampa wins a squeaker in New Orleans. 

 

If those predictions came to pass we'd be playing the Giants in a game that meant nothing to them week 17 needing a win and EITHER a Falcons loss to Saints or a Bucs loss to Panthers to get in. 

 

 

 

Great post but not quite right on the second permutation. Rooting big time for Dallas and New Orleans this week.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Thanks @kleese 

 

To simplify things just a bit (because I'm simple-minded), are we simply looking at the following scenario...

 

Redskins beat Bears

Saints beat Bucs

Cowboys beat Lions

 

If so, we are in a win-and-in situation in week 17? 

 

I would take that and smile at this point...

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 hour ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

Thanks @kleese 

 

To simplify things just a bit (because I'm simple-minded), are we simply looking at the following scenario...

 

Redskins beat Bears

Saints beat Bucs

Cowboys beat Lions

 

If so, we are in a win-and-in situation in week 17? 

 

I would take that and smile at this point...

 

If Bucs lose this week AND either Detroit or Green Bay lose, it's in our hands.

[kleese]

2 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

 

If Bucs lose this week AND either Detroit or Green Bay lose, it's in our hands.

Yep, that's the best case scenario....Don't totally lose sight of the Falcons-Panthers game either. If Atlanta loses then they would be in play for us to pass them week 17 if they lost again to New Orleans.

[kleese]

I like to talk to myself so here are some handy questions and answers people might have:

 

1. Can the Redskins clinch a playoff berth this week?

 

No, that ship has sailed.

 

2. Can the Redskins be eliminated this week if they lose?

 

Yes. If the Redskins lose and Tampa OR Green Bay wins, we are done.

 

3. Can the Redskins be eliminated this week if they win?

 

No. They are 100% guaranteed to be alive on Jan. 1st as long as they beat Chicago

 

4. What is the Redskins worst case outlook if they win?

 

If everything goes against them they would need to beat the Giants in week 17 and the Packers AND Bucs would need to lose week 17. I believe a more realistic scenario would be we need to win and EITHER Atlanta or Tampa needs to lose.

 

5. How do the Redskins take control of their destiny entering week 17?

 

Beat the Bears, Bucs lose to Saints, EITHER Packers OR Lions lose (technically if GB wins and Det loses we wouldn't 100% control destiny because a Packers-Lions tie in week 17 would eliminate us, but you get the drift)

 

6. What is the Kleese "take it to the bank" prediction?

 

We won't beat anyone playing the way we did Monday night, but this team has generally been resilient the past two years so I see us scratching and clawing our way to an ugly win in Chicago, guaranteeing we stay alive for at least one more week. I think Green Bay pummels the Vikings, but Dallas does us another favor and takes out the Lions. I think the Panthers upset the Falcons. Unfortunately, I have this sinking feeling the Bucs win a nail-biter in New Orleans in a shootout. If all that happens, we'd go into Week 17 needed to beat the Giants and EITHER a loss from the Bucs or Falcons.

 

My minimum hope this week is that we at least see the North teams get checked off our list--- if we go into week 17 needed one win and one from form either the Bucs or Falcons I can live with that.  

 

[DM72]

Shouldn't #2 be "if we lose?"

[TMK9973]

28 minutes ago, kleese said:

 

 

5. How do the Redskins take control of their destiny entering week 17?

 

Beat the Bears, Bucs lose to Saints, EITHER Packers OR Lions lose (technically if GB wins and Det loses we wouldn't 100% control destiny because a Packers-Lions tie in week 17 would eliminate us, but you get the drift)

 

 

 

Let think about this for a moment. How "Redskins" would this be?  Skins win, Bucs lose, Dallas wins.... 
The Packers / Lions game would 100% be "Flexed" to sunday night.  (Winner wins division - loser goes home...).  
Skins win - beat the Giants -We all on here celebrating a Skins playoff birth.....Then the Lions and Packers play to a Tie!!!  

 

[kleese]

7 minutes ago, DM72 said:

Shouldn't #2 be "if we lose?"

Yes, corrected. Thanks

[Cooleyfan1993]

So correct me if I'm wrong, but from what it sounds like, aside from rooting for the skins on Saturday (cause duh), 

 

its in our best interest if EITHER the packers or Buccaneers lose (if the packers win and the buccaneers lose, that's fine right?), and the lions lose on Monday? 

 

[TMK9973]

33 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

So correct me if I'm wrong, but from what it sounds like, aside from rooting for the skins on Saturday (cause duh), 

 

its in our best interest if EITHER the packers or Buccaneers lose (if the packers win and the buccaneers lose, that's fine right?), and the lions lose on Monday? 

 

No..Its not a either situation. Bucs HAVE To lose.... Bucs have to lose one or Falcons lose twice....

Unrelated to that - need either packers lose OR Lions lose...either one is fine.  But even if that happens - or both happens...we still need Bucks to lose 1 or Falcons lose twice.  

[flyingmau5]

If Pack and Bucs both lose, don't we automatically get in regardless of what Lions do?

[TMK9973]

 

Everyone can play around...

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

[kleese]

8 minutes ago, flyingmau5 said:

If Pack and Bucs both lose, don't we automatically get in regardless of what Lions do?

Yes, that is why it's an OR situation.... we need GB OR Detroit to lose this week. If they both lose, great. But we only need one. Same with ATL and TB--- we need Falcons to lose two OR Bucs to lose 1-- not both.

 

Short story here is that we need the second place team in the North and the second place team in the South to BOTH finish 9-7 or worse. That's what this is all about. As of right now I think the second place team in North finishing 9-7 or worse seems likely-- in the South it is more iffy.

[Cooleyfan1993]

32 minutes ago, TMK9973 said:

No..Its not a either situation. Bucs HAVE To lose.... Bucs have to lose one or Falcons lose twice....

Unrelated to that - need either packers lose OR Lions lose...either one is fine.  But even if that happens - or both happens...we still need Bucks to lose 1 or Falcons lose twice.  

Ohh ok gotcha. So we need Tampa Bay to be 1-1 or Falcons to be 0-2, but not both. And then in the NFC North we need either the Packers or Lions to lose. 

 

 

[kleese]

Well, we have six games on the watch list this week and #6 on the list did not go our way. Not a major development but would have preferred the Giants win. 

 

Dallas has now clinched everything.. the East and home field. I do NOT believe that this means they will rest starters this week or just lay down for the Lions. Teams rarely, if ever, shut it down like that this early. They have the bye week so I don't see Garrett essentially giving them 3 weeks off. Remember how much flack they got last time they had the bye and were acccussed of getting too "loose" in between. That said, they don't have anything to play for now so it does make the Lions game a little more tenuous. At least if they go with their back up QB, they have a pretty good one... 

 

The Giants loss also makes it more likely they will have something to play for week 17... although if things go OUR way this week, they go their way too-- meaning the Giants can still clinch this weekend before our game. 

 

I would say the result tonight are mildly disappointing but probably not anything that makes a major impact. 

[Warhead36]

Yeah I think if the results we want happen(Lions and Bucs losing)Giants would clinch anyway. The Giants losing wasn't a must result by any means. The must results are Lions and Bucs losing.

[Cooleyfan1993]

14 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah I think if the results we want happen(Lions and Bucs losing)Giants would clinch anyway. The Giants losing wasn't a must result by any means. The must results are Lions and Bucs losing.

I think the Giants winning was kind of what we wanted to have happen, cause now the cowboys have everything locked up, which means they might rest starters. Most people aren't expecting dallas to do that given they don't want their starters to pretty much have 3 weeks off, but it's a worry for some. 

[bobandweave]

Can't shake the feeling that gms and fans have heard enough about teams resting and coming out flat the next week. if I was a coach no way I'm falling for that trap. I doubt the Giants rest anyone they want to go in there hot, it's the hot teams that go far. We want there best game for our own fire too

 

Giants losing tonight hurt any chance of a rest next week to me but didn't think outside of Nassib why they want to rest anyone anyway? It all comes down to this week playing in Chicago. The coaches better have them ready, those boys come to place at there house usually scary game to me so much riding on this week for the future of the team. HTTR!

[echosams]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah I think if the results we want happen(Lions and Bucs losing)Giants would clinch anyway. The Giants losing wasn't a must result by any means. The must results are Lions and Bucs losing.

But the Giants losing enables the Redskins to grab the 5th seed by winning next week. (assuming they beat Chicago this week, and the above scenarios occur)

i.e. if Tampa and Detroit (or GB) lose this week, and the Redskins beat NY next week, Redskins get he 5 seed, Giants the 6th. 5 seed probably plays in Detroit or GB (whichever one wins the division) 6 probably plays in Atlanta.

I know this sounds strange coming from a Cowboys fan, but for all the rivalry, I hope their are 3 NFCE teams in the Divisional round. It's about time for this division to return to it's rightful, dominant place. From SB XV - XXX (16 games) the NFCE represented the NFC in 10 of them, winning 8.

[Cooleyfan1993]

@echosams, that is nowhere near correct...Giants have 10 wins. Redskins have 7 wins. The best the skins can end up with is 9 wins. Best the Giants can end up with is 11 wins, worst 10 wins (assuming we beat them next weekend). The only seed the skins can get is 6th seed. The Giants are all but locked into the 5th seed. 

[echosams]

1 minute ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

@echosams, that is nowhere near correct...Giants have 10 wins. Redskins have 7 wins. The best the skins can end up with is 9 wins. Best the Giants can end up with is 11 wins, worst 10 wins (assuming we beat them next weekend). The only seed the skins can get is 6th seed. The Giants are all but locked into the 5th seed. 

Let me look... aww hell... You are correct... I keep forgetting that tie. I was thinking a Redskins win would put them a game back, but they will be 1.5 games behind. Sorry.

[Cooleyfan1993]

Just now, echosams said:

Let me look... aww hell... You are correct... I keep forgetting that tie. I was thinking a Redskins win would put them a game back, but they will be 1.5 games behind. Sorry.

Yep that tie was an awful thing to have happen this season unfortunately, and might cost the skins a playoff spot. That and losing other games they should have won...

[GOSKINS_08]

When does the NFL have to make the decision on what games get flexed in week 17?