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2017 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread


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#Michigan DL Chris Wormley is probably my favorite "high floor, low ceiling" prospect this year. Scheme diverse, athletic, strong.

Dane Brugler added,

Chandler Nelon @mrnelon
@BryanBroaddus @dpbrugler think one day y'all could talk about high floor-low ceiling players all over the draft? We all know the high risks
 
 
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1 hour ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

The best way to improve your football team is to draft the BPA and continue stacking up on quality. If that top graded player on your board when you pick happens to be in a position you're already strong in, so be it. The best GM's don't window dress their boards or draft for need the first three rounds. You do that, you're risking losing out on superior talent and limiting your trade options. You draft BPA regardless of position, you're building a strong, deep roster. It's what teams like Seattle do. 

 

Said it on these boards recently but a favourite quote of mine draft time is from the great Packers GM Ron Wolf: 'If you feel good at a position, keep drafting it!' 

 

In other words, 'have 2 of 'em!' It's how you get stellar depth and a real strong roster. 

 

If the BPA on your board is a defensive player at 17, and it's not even close, sound. Draft him. If it's offensive player, the same applies. 

 

If you want to ever start to become a properly run football team again that is. 

 

Hail. 

 

In a perfect world, maybe. But it's never a perfect world. I also don't think he will be BPA.

 

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Mixon is more of a fumble risk than cook. If Mixon was as great as the other backs, he'd be talked about as a first.

 

Also, it doesn't look like any day 1 play makers on defense will be there at 17 and our second will be.

 

I dont want a RB at all, but it may still be the right choice.

 

Not true.

 

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

I disagree. NFL doesn't care that much about that stuff. If he was that great, he'd be a top pick. He's a non physical gadget back with major fumble issues.

 

Who are you describing? Because that sounds like McCaffery, (outside of the fumble issues) not a 226 pound 3 down back that ran a 4.43. Not a 200 pound back that ran a 4.48

I understand your bias now.

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There's a lot of players I like obviously as I've done more research/read more articles. I do like Bowser, but at #17 that might be too rich. CBS has him at #38. Matt Miller didn't have him in his Top 100 in early March (Although he admitted that his rankings change as he watches more tape and that was early on). I would love him in the 2nd, or with a trade-back ...

 

I do think we should try and grab Ryan Anderson from Bama in the 3rd if we fail to get an Edge in the 1st or 2nd. Actually if we go RB in the 1st ... I wouldn't mind a Dalvin Tomlinson in the 2nd, Anderson in the 3rd and someone like Blair Brown in the 4th or 5th, although that goes against what I posted earlier about "needing an impact, early round ILB and not another mid-round project" ... but a lot of folks seem to like Brown. Throw in G/C Pocic or CB Sidney Jones in the 4th (IF either is there) and I think you'd successfully hit each "hole" with each pick being a BPA through 5. 

1. RB Cook/McCaffrey

2. DL 3Tech Tomlinson

3. EDGE Anderson

4. G/C Pocic

4. CB Jones

5. ILB Brown

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Who is the surprise name that will crash the top-25 in this year's NFL Draft? My guess: #Houston LB Tyus Bowser

 

He's adept at blitzing from everywhere.  The Edge, the A or B gaps.  He's slippery.  He loses his feet a little too much, but he's so damned jittery it's hard for the blockers to get a clean shot at him.

 

There's also a lot of film of him dropping into a variety of coverage roles.  He seems versatile enough that we can find playing time for him a bit easier than we could for Haason Reddick.

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16 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

Speed, elusiveness, better receiving out of the backfield, off the top of my head. First three rounds need to be weighted BPA

 

One out of three. Thompson has McCaffery beat in speed and elusiveness. I agree with your 2nd point. Which is why I would not turn over in my grave if Cook when there. But Mixon is probably a better NFL back, and can be had in the 2nd. So it's till not a good pick IMO.

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The more I think about it, the more I'm starting to doubt we draft any of the guys below in the 1st round.  I think Bruce Allen wants to nail his first pick with a high floor player, similar to Trent Murphy in 2014.  I don't think he'll want to take a risky prospect and hear the criticism of running Scot out of town, then proceeding to draft a bust in the 1st round without him, for the rest of his life.

 

https://theringer.com/2017-nfl-draft-risky-prospects-marshon-lattimore-deshaun-watson-dalvin-cook-c09db45ca6e

 

Running Back: Dalvin Cook, Florida State

It seems like just about every time you turn on Cook’s tape, he’s taking what looks like a modest 2-yard gain and bouncing it outside or slipping through a tiny seam to run for a 50-yard touchdown. The one-cut explosiveness and vision are apparent, and many analysts believe he’s the most talented back in this class, but multiple red flags have popped up for the former Florida State running back.

For one, Cook’s injury history is well known, and three shoulder surgeries call into question how durable he will be at the next level. Plus, a list of off-field incidents adds to the uncertainty about his availability. And then there’s Cook’s disastrous combine performance. Scouts and analysts like to tout the expression “trust the tape” when it comes to the final grades they give prospects, but it’s pretty hard to ignore how poorly he tested in Indianapolis: Cook measured out in the seventh percentile among NFL athletes at his position, and in the past 18 years, no running back with his athletic profile has been taken in the first round.

 

Defensive Lineman: Malik McDowell, Michigan State

There are plays, and even full games, when McDowell looks like a top-10 pick with the upside of an All-Pro. Just watch him consistently blow by offensive linemen against Notre Dame.

But the 6-foot-6, 295-pound defensive lineman disappears too often. His unreliable effort, along with his inconsistent technique — he plays with a narrow base and comes off the ball much too high at times — means that he’s going to require a bunch of coaching at the next level. He could be a disruptive force all across the defensive line like Calais Campbell, but he could also have a short career. It all depends on how much he buys into his new team’s system.

 

Linebacker/Pass Rusher: Haason Reddick, Temple

At the combine, Reddick, who’s 6-foot-1 and 237 pounds, ran the 40 in 4.52 seconds and jumped 36.5 inches in the vert. Despite those tantalizing measurables, Reddick remains a projection at the next level: The one area in which he’s a proven producer is at edge rusher, where he racked up 22.5 tackles for a loss and 10.5 sacks last year — and that isn’t a role that he’ll play consistently as a pro.

Reddick is likely too small to function as an every-down edge rusher, which means he’d have to run, cover, and tackle in coverage as a weakside linebacker in a 4–3 or an inside linebacker in a 3–4. He dropped back into coverage just 14 percent of the time in 2016, per Pro Football Focus, and that would be a much bigger part of his game at the next level. He may have shined in this new position at the Senior Bowl, but in college, he struggled with making plays in space and with taking on blocks. Reddick’s upside is through the roof and his raw explosiveness is where he derives his value, but there’s so much uncertainty when a player has to change positions from college to the pros.

 

Safety/Linebacker: Jabrill Peppers, Michigan

Peppers is a top-end athlete with explosiveness, speed, and power behind his pads. In a hybrid-linebacker role for the Wolverines, he was a force against the run (15.0 tackles for a loss) and a capable blitzer (3.5 sacks). He has tantalizing upside as a rangy, physical safety and brings added value as a return man on special teams and wildcat runner on offense. Peppers is the only prospect in the draft with the potential to be an early-impact playmaker for his new team in all three phases of the game.

However, Peppers’s upside as a multitalented superstar is contingent upon his ability to develop instincts and ball skills in coverage at the next level. Run-defending safeties are a dime a dozen in the league, and in the pass-happy NFL, high-value defensive backs must be able to cover. But as the primary defender in coverage in his three years with Michigan, Peppers gave up 58 receptions on 93 targets, with just six passes defended. Ball skills and production don’t typically show up suddenly in the NFL, where players face more sophisticated offenses, better quarterbacks, and superior receivers. So if a team takes Peppers in the first round with visions of a defensive playmaker and special teams returner in the form of Charles Woodson, they’ll be betting on massive improvement in Peppers’s pass-coverage instincts.

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@HTTRDynasty

 

It's funny you mention that. When you consider that until 2016 Trent was considered a bust and the only year he was decent he gets busted for PEDs. So, I'm not sure how that applies. I suppose he was a safe pick, but he's been a role player at best, and with his PED bust, I have a felling he'll go back to being invisible.

 

I would absolutely consider 3 of the 4 players you have up there, Peppers being the one guy I would not. He's too small for LB and not good enough at either S or CB to be a 1st round pick. He's a project.

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Just now, Morneblade said:

@HTTRDynasty

 

It's funny you mention that. When you consider that until 2016 Trent was considered a bust and the only year he was decent he gets busted for PEDs. So, I'm not sure how that applies. I suppose he was a safe pick, but he's been a role player at best, and with his PED bust, I have a felling he'll go back to being invisible.

 

I would absolutely consider 3 of the 4 players you have up there, Peppers being the one guy I would not. He's too small for LB and not good enough at either S or CB to be a 1st round pick. He's a project.

 

That's the problem with "safe" picks.  They're high floor, low ceiling guys.  Trent was never expected to be a great player for us.  I think his floor has always been as a solid rotational piece with the ceiling of an average starter.  He's never reached his ceiling, but he's been okay as a rotational piece for us over the years.

 

If it was me, I would swing for the fences and draft McDowell/Reddick for sure, Peppers is a maybe, and Cook is a solid no thanks from me.  But I'm thinking from Allen's perspective.  And I expect him to be risk-averse in the 1st round, considering everything else that has gone on this offseason and considering his draft history.

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Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

 

That's the problem with "safe" picks.  They're high floor, low ceiling guys.  Trent was never expected to be a great player for us.  I think his floor has always been as a solid rotational piece with the ceiling of an average starter.  He's never reached his ceiling, but he's been okay as a rotational piece for us over the years.

 

If it was me, I would swing for the fences and draft McDowell/Reddick for sure, Peppers is a maybe, and Cook is a solid no thanks from me.  But I'm thinking from Allen's perspective.  And I expect him to be risk-averse in the 1st round, considering everything else that has gone on this offseason and considering his draft history.

 

I do understand that logic. But your 1st round pick is supposed to be a starter. Third round and back is where you're looking for depth.

 

But if McDowell is there, this is what I think "I have one of the best DL coaches in all of football. This kid might lack technique and motivation. But I have the guy that can give it to him in spades." He's physically as good as anyone in the draft, and maybe better than all of them.

 

I do not trade down.

 

Reddick is also a question mark, but he's played S before. I think he can make the move. Although, with Z. Brown, this become less of a need. And someone is going to have to call plays.

 

Cook has the fumblitis, shoulder issues, and some not so good people. More questions than the other 2, IMO. After Fournette, I think Mixon might be the best back.

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10 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

I do understand that logic. But your 1st round pick is supposed to be a starter. Third round and back is where you're looking for depth.

 

But if McDowell is there, this is what I think "I have one of the best DL coaches in all of football. This kid might lack technique and motivation. But I have the guy that can give it to him in spades." He's physically as good as anyone in the draft, and maybe better than all of them.

 

I do not trade down.

 

Reddick is also a question mark, but he's played S before. I think he can make the move. Although, with Z. Brown, this become less of a need. And someone is going to have to call plays.

 

I agree with all of this.  But you can still draft a high floor, low ceiling (or medium ceiling is more appropriate for a 1st rounder I guess) guy that you plan on being a starter.  I think they will probably take a guy like that over someone with All-Pro potential but has significant questions surrounding him.

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56 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

There's a lot of players I like obviously as I've done more research/read more articles. I do like Bowser, but at #17 that might be too rich. CBS has him at #38. Matt Miller didn't have him in his Top 100 in early March (Although he admitted that his rankings change as he watches more tape and that was early on). I would love him in the 2nd, or with a trade-back ...

 

I do think we should try and grab Ryan Anderson from Bama in the 3rd if we fail to get an Edge in the 1st or 2nd. Actually if we go RB in the 1st ... I wouldn't mind a Dalvin Tomlinson in the 2nd, Anderson in the 3rd and someone like Blair Brown in the 4th or 5th, although that goes against what I posted earlier about "needing an impact, early round ILB and not another mid-round project" ... but a lot of folks seem to like Brown. Throw in G/C Pocic or CB Sidney Jones in the 4th (IF either is there) and I think you'd successfully hit each "hole" with each pick being a BPA through 5. 

1. RB Cook/McCaffrey

2. DL 3Tech Tomlinson

3. EDGE Anderson

4. G/C Pocic

4. CB Jones

5. ILB Brown

I would love this draft 

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2 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I agree with all of this.  But you can still draft a high floor, low ceiling (or medium ceiling is more appropriate for a 1st rounder I guess) guy that you plan on being a starter.  I think they will probably take a guy like that over someone with All-Pro potential but has significant questions surrounding him.

 

Yeah, it depends a lot on what the questions are. If the questions are physical (not big enough, too slow, ect) then you have to look and see if you can either scheme around them, or protect him in some way. If not, you might want to see if he drops.

 

If it's thinks like coaching (things you think you can make him better at) then you look at your coaches and see if you think they have, or don't have what it takes.

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33 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Yeah, it depends a lot on what the questions are. If the questions are physical (not big enough, too slow, ect) then you have to look and see if you can either scheme around them, or protect him in some way. If not, you might want to see if he drops.

 

If it's thinks like coaching (things you think you can make him better at) then you look at your coaches and see if you think they have, or don't have what it takes.

 

That would be ideal.  I just don't have much faith in Bruce to think that way (or take that risk) to be honest.

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1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

That would be ideal.  I just don't have much faith in Bruce to think that way (or take that risk) to be honest.

 

Well, I can't say I disagree. I'd like to be wrong but I don't have a huge amount of faith in Bruce either.

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