How many more games must we win for Gruden to return in 2016?

[wit33]

Chip-- with current state of division, do you not believe Skins have a chance??

I just don't want to give the team a pass this year while sitting 1 game back 10 games into the season with an upcoming game against the first place team.

[chipwhich]

Chip-- with current state of division, do you not believe Skins have a chance??

I just don't want to give the team a pass this year while sitting 1 game back 10 games into the season with an upcoming game against the first place team.

 

They have a chance if they beat NY, which history over the last 20 proves they don't have a chance in hell.  But even if they win they aren't a perennial contender.  We are in rebuild mode.  Any win from a perennial 4-5 win team is a bonus.

[kingarthur65]

The same team who had probably the most embarrassing end of season press conference last year?  The team with more leaks than a damn to the media?  The same team who had more free agent starters than draft picks?  The same team who has more losing records the last 20 years than most NFL teams?  Sometimes I wonder where fans come up with the stuff they come up with.  We are literally one of the laughing stocks of the league but somehow every year some of our fans think we should be contenders.

 

Step 1.  draft draft draft.  LOL.  Maybe we can change coaches every year and sign players every year and talk about how great we are.  Wait.  We already do that.

 

It's still a valid question.  We need the stability.  It's not just Gruden.  If he's replaced, we replace a lot of the other coaches.  Is he the right guy to build a staff?  I'm not sold on him, but it's hard to change the staff again.  

His play calling and his game plans are less than inspiring.  I think it's a tough call on whether or not he comes back.

[chipwhich]

It's still a valid question.  We need the stability.  It's not just Gruden.  If he's replaced, we replace a lot of the other coaches.  Is he the right guy to build a staff?  I'm not sold on him, but it's hard to change the staff again.  

His play calling and his game plans are less than inspiring.  I think it's a tough call on whether or not he comes back.

 

We need stability, we all agree on that.  Stability isn't the number of coaches the Redskins keep churning through.  When do you propose stability begins?  Gibbs?  Shanny?  Gruden?  Spurrier?  Zorn??  We can preach stability and pretend.

[88Comrade2000]

One thing favoring Gruden's return; there could be alot of coaching changes this year.

 

See my Race to Black Monday Thread - p6 - post 223 has my latest look at coaching hot seat.

 

http://es.redskins.com/topic/375542-the-race-to-black-monday-2015/page-6

 

Would the Redskins be that competitive, in being able to get prospective coaches?

 

 

Foundation?  We don't have a  solid foundation. We have a shaky foundation. At 2 of the most important positions on the team, we don't have NFL calibur people.  Gruden isn't a head coach. At best, he will be mediocre.  Cousins is still a backup QB good for a few games.  Against the better competition, Kirk can't compete.   If Scot gets the time to build the team right; I don't expect either Gruden or Cousins will be here.  By the time this team is a real competitive NFL team again, Gruden and Cousins will be gone.

 

One thing Scot will have to judge; will have seen enough the final 6 weeks?  Will Scot see enough in Gruden; that he feels comfortable to hitch his future too?  Does he feel, Jay is the coach; who can develop the players Scot will bring in?

 

Should we decide after the end of 2016 or 2017, we need a new coach; Dan Snyder may just completely clean house. Dan will want to go after the big name and will give that big name; whatever control he wants.  So, if Scot rides with Gruden and fails; Scot will probably be gone also.  So, that's a factor in Scot's decision.

 

You all know, my choice to start fresh in 2016. We got the GM and let the GM bring in his coach and they get their QB.  Colt or Kirk or someone else could be sign for a stopgap but the franchise QB is someone we will get in either the 2016 or 2017 draft.

 

 

My guess, 6-10 and Jay returns.  

 

Giants

Cowboys

@Bears

Bills

@Eagles

@Cowboys

 

Jay absolutely has to win 2 more games.  Finishing 1-5 or 0-6 isn't progress.   Our best chance for wins comes in 3 of the 4 division games.  We should be able to beat the Giants Sunday. I don't see Dallas sweeping us; so we should win at least one of those.  2 wins right there.  I think the Eagles are done, especially when we face them again.  That could be our best shot of a road win this year.

 

If we don't finish 6-10 or 7-9; I don't really see how Scot can rest his future with him. Dan will be willing to eat the salary now; knowing Scot can get Dan the right coach. 

 

 

My guess we finish 6-10/7-9 and there's no coaching change.  Anything worse than that - then this thread becomes more relevant.

[Koolblue13]

I believe there is enough talent to win this division this season. If GM SM gets three starters out of the next draft, I think a solid staff has this team competing again. My opinion on Gruden is he is a decent OC, but not great, and he is a mediocre HC. Replacements? If they want to keep the same system in place, they could give Hue Jackson a look. Personally, I would like to see a defensive minded coach. I wish we had hired Sean McDermott or Mike Zimmer the last search. Gruden was forced because of his connection to Allen and TB.

We have 3 starters who were 1rst round picks of ours and 2 (I believe) 2nd rounders starting on our team. Why do you think we've got so much talent?

 

We are competing. If we beat the Giants, we are 1rst in the East and control our destiny right now.

 

You can wish all you want, makes no difference. I wanted to hire Schwartz, before Shannahan, but here we are.

 

Why do you think Hue Jackson, would be such a major upgrade to be our HC? Then do you get rid of all the coordinators and let Hue bring in his own? That takes a few years. Do you just start cutting staff and paying them anyway?

 

It makes no sense to cut JG now. None. This team is improved. He has improved.

 

Everyone pretty much said if we win 6 games, it's a miracle, but here we are about to take over first in the division. We can still finish with a winning record and we've been in almost every game.

 

The "fire the coach" mantra has to stop. This team needs several drafts, before we can even think about the HC being the problem. The players are all on board with what we're trying to do, other teams have said we're the toughest team, even if they won.

 

 

[TheCoach22]

We have 3 starters who were 1rst round picks of ours and 2 (I believe) 2nd rounders starting on our team. Why do you think we've got so much talent?

We are competing. If we beat the Giants, we are 1rst in the East and control our destiny right now.

You can wish all you want, makes no difference. I wanted to hire Schwartz, before Shannahan, but here we are.

Why do you think Hue Jackson, would be such a major upgrade to be our HC? Then do you get rid of all the coordinators and let Hue bring in his own? That takes a few years. Do you just start cutting staff and paying them anyway?

It makes no sense to cut JG now. None. This team is improved. He has improved.

Everyone pretty much said if we win 6 games, it's a miracle, but here we are about to take over first in the division. We can still finish with a winning record and we've been in almost every game.

The "fire the coach" mantra has to stop. This team needs several drafts, before we can even think about the HC being the problem. The players are all on board with what we're trying to do, other teams have said we're the toughest team, even if they won.

I'll play, but seriously this isn't personal. I am all for stability, but I just cannot look at Jay Guden and think "Wheaties Eater." He does not inspire confidence, he isn't a wizard in scheme, he made a very questionable hire for DC, and he got his job for all the wrong reasons.

Examining closer, some guys have reputations for being "gamblers," others for being "creative," others for being "players' coaches..." How would you label Gruden? I would say system's guy..: he knows the WCO but he has shown little ability to adapt to flow of the game, or even to plan for opponents in an effort to exploit weaknesses (Saints being the exception, but literally defense was their weakness). You're telling me if Sean Payton became available you'd prefer "stability?" Hue Jackson could leave McVay in place, but I think he would be an upgrade in terms of getting guys to play and in giving the team an ID and in maximizing talent. I just don't think Gruden does. This is my opinion, but I believe the next six games should be at least a 3-3 showing. Anything less, I let GM SM make the call going forward.

As for talent... Every player on the offensive line was drafted in rounds 1-3. LeRibeus absolutely sucks, and he will likely be replaced this week (or so I can dream), but the line has two first rounders, Moses who fell to round three, and Long who may have been a slight reach in round three only because of an injury. Cousins has improved... He had a better grade than first pick of round 4, he fell to us and we stand to gain if he can continue to improve. He is throwing to two guys who have made pro bowls in Garcon and Jackson. Reed is a stud, top 5 pass catching TE. Morris is looking more and more like a ZBS system guy, but he has produced in the league. Two young guys behind him are above average players... Fumbles are fixable, this staff needs to help Jones figure it out. Crowder was another steal in round 4.

The idea everyone has to be a first rounder just isn't accurate when you look at teams that do build through the draft. Yes, having a Brady or Rodgers makes all the difference, but teams like GB, NE, Seattle also constantly find talent in day three of the draft... I believe our current backfield has talent enough to have longterm NFL success. I believe our current GM will continue to find players in all rounds of the draft.

Defensively, the front seven should be better than it is. I don't think we are aggressive enough, but regardless, the guys should be winning more 1-to-1 match-ups. Paea, Knighton, Hatcher are guys who have done well in this league. Kerrigan is having a meh season but he was a first rounder who has been to pro bowls. Murphy and Wilson were second rounders. Riley is JAG but Robinson was on his way to a nice contract before this season... Not so much anymore. The secondary, all I can say is Culliver, Hall, Breeland, Blackmon and Jarrett are deeper than we have had in years... Still nothing special I admit. For me the D gets back to the Barry hire, I think he is a nice guy, a worker, and I love me some fellow pot-a-day coffee drinkers but he just doesn't look like a good hire. He was a LB coach in SD last year, Brian Baker gets fired and that is the one unit that has clearly regressed this season. That is on Jay.

We aren't the 91 Skins, 85 Bears or the Niners of the 80s or Patriots dynasties by any stretch but we are better than a team that should be pumped-up about a 6-10 improvement in a season where Chip Kelly shipped off his best players, Romo missed half a season and the Giants continue to be what they have been the last four years... A sub-.500 coin flip against 30 other NFL teams. They have been the Redskins against everyone else except the Redskins. Literally dominating Washington has kept them a tick above or below .500, but that is it.

I guess this comes down to your definition of talent... When Shanny came in and cut 8 guys and literally no one picked any of them up the following season, that was evidence the roster lacked talent. I look at our line-up and I see players that would be starters elsewhere if they or the team moved on. I look at depth of roster and think these guys would be in their current role on most teams. We are what the NFL wants today, like about 20-22 other teams. This is how it is going to be for the foreseeable future which is why you have to look for a coach who makes the difference. It is really frustrating to see TB and Houston creep past us in the standings.

Established coaches who might be available? I would be interested in Sean Payton, John Harbaugh or Chuck Pagano if they were fired.

As for coordinators, I mentioned McDermott or Jackson.

College coaches, Shaw from Stanford would interest me. I wouldn't want a spread offense or innovator from the college ranks... Not the right fit.

Anyway, I am not on the fire the coach mantra you allege. I do think the expectation for the last six games needs to be a 3-3 or better barometer. Less than that, I hope Scot convinces Danny to move on. I will have a hard time seeing progress at 6-10 the way the division unfolded and with the season right in front of us with home games against the Giants and Boys heading into December.

[Koolblue13]

You know Scot has the same "questionable ties" to Allen, that JG and Barry have right? That's another annoyance.

 

I think year 3 will show us what we need to see. It's JGs second year and he's improved. Cooley and everyone else, has said he is calling quality games.

[GoDeep81]

I think JG is making progress as a OC.. Not so much as a HC.. If your not the "demand respect" type of leader HC, you better be the smartest son of a **** in the room.. He's neither.. Sorry, let the search continue!!

[50yrSKINSfan]

I think he should stay if he splits with the Giants Cowboys and beats the birds 2 times. In other words has a winning percentage in the division.  He should def be here if he wins the division. I don't think he is the second coming of Lombardi but you can't keep firing coaches every 2 years as no one will want to come here. He has had a lot of injuries this year. A lot depends on who is available also. If we crash and burn in the last 6 games and Sean Payton is available, I say get SP. It all depends on the last 6 games. Finishing strong is big if you want to be good next year.

[skins island connection]

 I think a lot of it has to do with the players and how they respond/react to his leadership.

 

 We've all seen how a team can give up by their play on the field. A coach has to get the respect of his players, and through that their play depends on how successful the coach puts them in positions to win.

 

Yes, the record isn't great, and we've somewhat become used to being 4-6 or 3-7 over the last decade or so, and it sucks and we all want it to turn around. If the team doesn't evolve or turn that corner, they will feel like 'here we go again' and go into preservation mode, not putting their best effort on the field, and we've seen that also.

 

Unless the team collapses, he should come back; continuity reflects on players as well, they see whats going on. Personally, I hoped that Kyle would have stayed, unsure about daddy, but a young aggressive mind like that would do good with a healthy o-line and QB, but being this is about Gruden, he should come back, but under the terms that he gets this team making that turn, and the team finding a few game-changer type players to help the team along.

[Stadium-Armory]

Zero. I think he makes it through regardless.

 

He doesn't really inspire me but what do I know. Just win baby.

[88Comrade2000]

Established coaches who might be available? I would be interested in Sean Payton, John Harbaugh or Chuck Pagano if they were fired.

As for coordinators, I mentioned McDermott or Jackson.

College coaches, Shaw from Stanford would interest me. I wouldn't want a spread offense or innovator from the college ranks... Not the right fit.

 

 

 

I'd take Peyton or Pagano.  John Harbaugh isn't going to be fired for one down year in Baltimore. Heck, even 2 down years probably wouldn't get him fired. He made the playoffs his first 5 or 6 years and won one Superbowl.  He will be given time while Baltimore retools.

[TheCoach22]

I'd take Peyton or Pagano. John Harbaugh isn't going to be fired for one down year in Baltimore. Heck, even 2 down years probably wouldn't get him fired. He made the playoffs his first 5 or 6 years and won one Superbowl. He will be given time while Baltimore retools.

I agree. There were some whispers early that perhaps he needed to change scenery to be effective, blah, blah... But that quieted as they got bit hard by the injury bug. A man can dream, right?

[Taylor703]

I just don't see Gruden going anywhere. Whether I think he deserves to keep the job or not is irrelevant, what is true however is that there won't be any QBs available to us that will improve our situation so you may as well give Jay another year with Kirk to see how the team develops. If things stay the way they are now or they faulter than you make a move. This allows you to get a new franchise QB along with a new headcoach whom can develop together.

The other thing I'll say is if we do ultimately decide to let Jay go than you clear out this entire staff. No more patchwork coaches who survived this firing or that firing. You let the new guy put his staff together and go through an actual rebuild. This would require patience from the fanbase but given the fact that McCloughan would be spearheading said rebuild I think you'll get that from this fanbase more so than you normally would.

So basically what I'm saying is, go or stay, this team needs to get this right this time. If you keep Gruden than you give him all the resources he needs to improve and if you move on than you do an real rebuild for once. One that won't make this team just decent for a couple years but one that will compete for a decade or more.

[Warhead36]

This team has way more talent issues than it does coaching issues.

[Taylor703]

This team has way more talent issues than it does coaching issues.

I think people undersell how much talent this team has. I don't think it's nearly as bad as some fans make it out to be.

[chipwhich]

I think people undersell how much talent this team has. I don't think it's nearly as bad as some fans make it out to be.

 

Does talent miss tackles like we did last week?  I think fans on ES ALWAYS think our talent is much better than it is.

[Taylor703]

Does talent miss tackles like we did last week? I think fans on ES ALWAYS think our talent is much better than it is.

And I think fans constantly poopoo the talent on this team to make excuses for other facets. Did Terrance Knighton all of a sudden become terrible the moment he put on an redskins uniform and did Rambo become a stud simply by going to the Bills? There's more to it than constantly harping on how little talent we have. We've got an pro bowl LB who looks like a JAG right now along with Culliver and Breeland, two very talented corners, getting burnt left and right. There's bigger underlying issues than the talent on this team.

[Warhead36]

We have some nice players, but we really don't have any studs. Guys that can change games by themselves. Jackson is close, but he's really a one trick pony deep threat, not an all around monster WR like a Dez Bryant or Julio Jones. Jordan Reed might be but hasn't figured it all out yet. Trent Williams is a great LT but LTs don't really change games. And we have nobody on D that fits this bill, not even close. Again we have some nice, solid, B- to B+ type players, but no As.

 

We also have some really mediocre to bad players. The Safeties are not NFL caliber. Perry Riley is not a starter. Lariebus is god awful at C. Garcon is the definition of mediocre who can't even eclipse 10 YPC.

 

There is a reason this team has averaged like 5 wins per season in the last 5+ years despite going through multiple coaches. We need infusions of gamebreaking playmaking talent.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Does talent miss tackles like we did last week?  I think fans on ES ALWAYS think our talent is much better than it is.

 

Does lack of talent overcome a 24-pt deficit and put up 47 points only because it didn't want to score more?...

 

These types of arguments can be made all day long, but they mean little.

 

I'd rather have a team that has a coach that can maximize the talent he's given than a team that is so talented it masks the coaching failures. A team that talented won't stay together for long in the age of free agency but a coach like that could stay with the team for 10-15 years, if not longer.

 

To answer the question of the thread, though, putting Gruden's return on a specific minimum number of wins is a mistake. As others have said, minus a complete collapse the rest of the way, retaining him for a 3rd season seems the way to go.

[Warhead36]

Does lack of talent overcome a 24-pt deficit and put up 47 points only because it didn't want to score more?...

 

These types of arguments can be made all day long, but they mean little.

 

I'd rather have a team that has a coach that can maximize the talent he's given than a team that is so talented it masks the coaching failures. A team that talented won't stay together for long in the age of free agency but a coach like that could stay with the team for 10-15 years, if not longer.

 

To answer the question of the thread, though, putting Gruden's return on a specific minimum number of wins is a mistake. As others have said, minus a complete collapse the rest of the way, retaining him for a 3rd season seems the way to go.

Talent matters way more than coaching. With talent anyone can win. Brian Billick won a Super Bowl. So did Barry Switzer. Neither were particularly good coaches. Meanwhile even great coaches like Bill Bellicheck didn't win crap until they got good players.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Talent matters way more than coaching. With talent anyone can win. Brian Billick won a Super Bowl. So did Barry Switzer. Neither were particularly good coaches. Meanwhile even great coaches like Bill Bellicheck didn't win crap until they got good players.

 

 Talent that isn't well-coached won't get far. The Cowboys would have been to a SB if Parcells had stayed on with those same players that constantly under performed for Wade Phillips. Of course, Jerruh Jones torpedoes that from ever happening lol...

[Taylor703]

We have some nice players, but we really don't have any studs. Guys that can change games by themselves. Jackson is close, but he's really a one trick pony deep threat, not an all around monster WR like a Dez Bryant or Julio Jones. Jordan Reed might be but hasn't figured it all out yet. Trent Williams is a great LT but LTs don't really change games. And we have nobody on D that fits this bill, not even close. Again we have some nice, solid, B- to B+ type players, but no As.

We also have some really mediocre to bad players. The Safeties are not NFL caliber. Perry Riley is not a starter. Lariebus is god awful at C. Garcon is the definition of mediocre who can't even eclipse 10 YPC.

There is a reason this team has averaged like 5 wins per season in the last 5+ years despite going through multiple coaches. We need infusions of gamebreaking playmaking talent.

I don't understand the argument that Jackson is an one-trick pony? He can go deep, he can take screen passes to the house, he plays the ball in the air better than any receiver we've had in years. He's an all-around stud receiver that gets labeled a certain way due to the fact that he's so fast and nearly impossible to cover one on one deep. His route running is tremendous as well. When Jackson is on his game he is one of the best receivers in the game.

[SkinsGuy]

Does talent miss tackles like we did last week?  I think fans on ES ALWAYS think our talent is much better than it is.

 

Just as there are many who undervalue what we have.

 

Saying that, I think the defense is short a draft (or two) on players it

needs (especially LBs).

 

The offense, I feel has the pieces, mostly. It is just young and inexperienced (especially along the o-line).

 

Barring a COMPLETE, Titanic-like sinking the next 6 weeks, I think Gruden will be here next season.

 

And I think fans constantly poopoo the talent on this team to make excuses for other facets. Did Terrance Knighton all of a sudden become terrible the moment he put on an redskins uniform and did Rambo become a stud simply by going to the Bills? There's more to it than constantly harping on how little talent we have. We've got an pro bowl LB who looks like a JAG right now along with Culliver and Breeland, two very talented corners, getting burnt left and right. There's bigger underlying issues than the talent on this team.

 

Rambo is a stud?