2015 Baltimore Orioles Thread - Hot Stove Edition

[TheDoyler23]

Saw we were talking to Justin Upton's agent

 

Could be due diligence. Could be trying to move Davis in one way or another. O's could certainly use a second outfielder that can hit. 

[MattFancy]

I think I would take Upton over Davis honestly. He would be a big upgrade in the OF. I love all Davis has done here, but if he wants more than our current offer, I'd be fine letting him go.

[RonArtest15]

I think I would take Upton over Davis honestly. He would be a big upgrade in the OF. I love all Davis has done here, but if he wants more than our current offer, I'd be fine letting him go.

 

If Davis is allowed to walk but Upton signs, that would be a big upgrade.  Speed on the basepaths and solves our OF problem. 

[Riggo#44]

I think I would take Upton over Davis honestly. He would be a big upgrade in the OF. I love all Davis has done here, but if he wants more than our current offer, I'd be fine letting him go.

 

Seen Upton a lot here, problem with Upton is he'll consistently post a .850+ OPS, which looks great. But he'll do that on the back of a 1.500 OPS month, and an .950 month, but in between those, expect several .600 OPS months.

[MattFancy]

Seen Upton a lot here, problem with Upton is he'll consistently post a .850+ OPS, which looks great. But he'll do that on the back of a 1.500 OPS month, and an .950 month, but in between those, expect several .600 OPS months.

 

Pretty much just like Davis, but can play better defense and has some speed.

[capcrunch98]

Well, Crush said he wants to stay in Baltimore.  Now we'll see if he really means it.

 

Kudos to the O's for making the offer.  After we got Trumbo and re-signed O'Day, I thought for sure Angelos would close his checkbook.

[KingGibbs]

We the fans have to back the O's brass on the Davis offer. It's up to you now Crush.

Also heard teams are inquiring about Britton now. If someone offers a deal we can't refuse? Pull the trigger.

[abdcskins]

I wouldn't say Upton is a significant upgrade over Davis.  They are about the same honestly.  Upton started out hot in San Diego then cooled off significantly.

[DM72]

I just saw a tweet that said the Orioles have gone over their 7/$150M offer.

[DM72]

Rumor has it that Davis is seeking 8/$200M.

I thought the O's were generous in giving him 7 years.

[RonArtest15]

We the fans have to back the O's brass on the Davis offer. It's up to you now Crush.

Also heard teams are inquiring about Britton now. If someone offers a deal we can't refuse? Pull the trigger.

 

After the Chapman debacle, Britton might be the best name out there at the closer spot. 

 

Now's the time to flip him. 

[KingGibbs]

Rumor has it that Davis is seeking 8/$200M.

I thought the O's were generous in giving him 7 years.

Peace out Chris.

[DM72]

Lol...That's what I was thinking. Is he really worth THAT much?

[KingGibbs]

No he is not. I want him to stay, but he needs to be realistic. OPACY is made for him Just proves it's all about the money.

I would take Upton and Alex Gordon if Chris' demands remain outrageous.

[Hersh]

After the Chapman debacle, Britton might be the best name out there at the closer spot. 

 

Now's the time to flip him. 

 

Do you want to win this year or not? This team has a three year window right now. No reason to subtract one of the best closers in the game.

[Hersh]

Rumor has it that Davis is seeking 8/$200M.

I thought the O's were generous in giving him 7 years.

 

That's insane. I don't think Boras has a many teams lined up for him and I would be stunned if anyone paid that much for him. My guess is the O's will give it another day while they negotiate with another big bat then walk away from CD if they get a deal in place with the other player.  

[RonArtest15]

Do you want to win this year or not? This team has a three year window right now. No reason to subtract one of the best closers in the game.

 

Closer is an overrated position. 

 

As I saw someone say on another MB, you have a manager who tries to exploit matchups for 8 innings...essentially playing chess.  Then they throw it all away to put the closer on the bump for the 9th.  Regardless of who is at bat.  Makes no sense LOL. 

 

I think Britton is great, but if you can get a good return...either prospects to help our beyond depleated farm system, or a starter...you do it. 

 

O'Day can serve in that role, or maybe Givens. 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Damn, I lost everything I had typed up.

 

You show massive bias in your posts to attempt to justify your position. Lot's of factually incorrect things.

 

Players developed: Britton, Machado, Givens, Wieters, Schoop (international signing), Gausman, Gonzo (signing with no MLB experience), Joseph. Of course complaining about drafting intentionally leaves out the O's actually developing Jones and Tillman since they were via trade but had done nothing prior to the trade. Garcia showed as a rule 5 guy that he has some good stuff and pitched well in the 2nd half of the season. I'm not really sure how many players you think get developed by teams that win WS, but it's often not many without major supplementing of FAs. If Tillman or Gausman starts opening day, you'd have at least 5 of the 9 starters as homegrown/developed, at least half the bullpen that would likely be used in a win.

 

"Absolutely NOTHING in the farm:" Schoop was never rated as one of the O's top prospects so I'm sure you thought the same thing when he was in the minors. Anyway: Mancini, Jomar Reyes (18-SS/3B), Ryan Mountcastle (18-SS/3B), Chance Sisco is maybe 20?, Chris Lee (100 MPH), Tiggs (older pitching prospect for the bullpen) and I won't even bring up Hunter Harvey and Bundy until they show they are healthy.

 

"Trumbo won't replace Cruz or Davis." Experts like Harold Reynolds think Trumbo has 40 home run potential with the O's and the O's had more HRs last season than with Cruz. Plus, that is assuming that Davis isn't resigned or that the O's don't add another offensive bat.

 

Bullpen: The O's have a top 5 bullpen and still a lot of youth in the pen aside from O'Day. Everyone else is under control for at least a couple more years and considering the cost of FAs, they are relatively cheap.

 

Starters: We will see who the O's add, but, again, track records of Tillman and Gonzo suggest bounce back seasons and Gausman continues to improve. He has great potential.

 

Defense: Not even sure why you would speak negatively at all about the D. They cover ground and have gold gloves all around this team. Corner outfielders weren't great but that hasn't been the norm.

 

Lastly, so you want Machado to go through 2 terrible team seasons thinking he will be fine with being in last place and you hope that he will resign if a bunch of prospects develop? To go even deeper, you complain about the Orioles not developing players but now you think that they will magically develop a stable full of young players in a year or two? The O's aren't going to get a bunch of ready to play in the majors prospects trading all these players so you will be hoping guys develop in the majors.

 

Houston has had one decent WC season and that's it. The O's have been in the playoffs 2 of the last 4 years with no losing seasons. Give me Buck and the O's all day long.

 

Well if I'm apparently showing massive bias, I don't know what else to say.  Pot meet kettle?  

 

Apologies for the delayed response, I haven't been on much over the past few days.

 

Players developed, let's take them one by one:

 

Britton:  Failed starting pitching prospect.  Great closer, no doubt but I agree with the above poster that closers are overrated.  21 pitchers last year had 30 saves or more, that's 2/3 of all of MLB.  

 

Machado:  Of course, the shining star of our recent drafts and the best player on the team at the moment.  He's so good that no teams development process could have ruined him.  

 

Wieters:  I like Wieters but I'm not crazy about him.  Drafted and developed.  You'll also notice that the 96 win team you love to talk about won those games with Caleb Joseph catching most of the games.  

 

Givens:  Really?  I like him a lot but he doesn't even have a year of MLB service time under his belt.  Let's relax a little bit before anointing him a great piece to our team.  Kudos to the franchise for taking a...failed shortstop project...and making him a pretty good looking reliever.  

 

Schoop:  Has a lot of power, has a lot of upside but he's not a superstar yet.  

 

Gausman:  Has a lot of upside, his fastball is electric.  Has shown flashes of brilliance.  This season will tell a lot about him moving forward.  

 

Miguel:  Don't act like we signed him out of some Mexican league and no one had any idea bout him.  He first pitched in the Angels system and was a good prospect, released due to injuries and then I think he went to the Boston system and then we picked him up after he was released.  You're right, he didn't have any MLB experience but we can't take the credit for developing him since he spent significant time in other systems first.

 

Miguel is an exception, he's one in a million, literally.  It's not a smart baseball plan to try to figure out which guys you can pick up off the scrap-heap and will have MLB success.  That said, he is an important part to our team and will need to have a bounce back year in order to finish above .500.  

 

Joseph:  I like Caleb a lot but let's not pretend his .693 OPS last year is excellent.  That said, he provides great defense and might have a better throwing arm than Wieters right now.  

 

What, you're not bringing Brian Matusz into this conversation?

 

The Orioles didn't develop Jones and Tillman, that's not even close to being true.  Jones spent parts of two seasons in Seattle and never spent a day in our minors.  Tillman spent 2008 in our minors but the bulk of his minor league development came from Seattle.

 

You act like I'm wrong to complain about this team drafting and developing it's own talent.  How anyone can take a look at some of our first round picks over the past 10-15 years and not be upset is insane.  

 

2015:  Obviously it's too soon to write off DJ Stewart but he hit .218 in Aberdeen this year.  

2014:  We didn't have a first round pick or a second round pick but our third rounder, Brian Gonzalez, got lit up in Delmarva this year.  4th rounder Pat Connaughton decided to go play in the NBA.

2013:  Hunter Harvey is hurt.  Electric stuff but hasn't been healthy.  Chance Sisco could be good and was taken in the third round.

2012:  Gausman.  Remains to be seen

2011:  Dylan Bundy.  Lotta hype, but a lot of hurt.  

2010:  Machado.  

2009:  Matt Hobgood was an absolute joke.

2008:  Matusz is a disappointment.  You can say that he's a vital member of our bullpen or whatever but I don't think anyone gets drafted 4th overall to be a LOOGY.  We could have picked Buster Posey insead.  

2007:  Wieters.  Solid choice.  Oh right, this is also the year we drafted Jake Arrieta.  We did such a bang-up job in developing him that he went to the Cubs and won a Cy Young award.  Orioles development is awesome.

2006:  Billy Rowell is the only player in the top 10 not to make the MLB.  Lincecum and Scherzer were taken with the two picks immediately after him

2005:  Brandon Snyder.  

 

I could go on, but it's not pretty.  There was also Markakis but there was also Chris Smith who couldn't get past Delmarva.  

 

As far as nothing in the farm system, Baseball Prospectus ranks the Orioles as the 22nd system in the game headed into last season.   http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25592

 

Also headed into last season the Orioles had three prospects out of the Baseball Prospectus Top 101.  

 

Baseball America, on the other hand, decided to rank the Orioles system 29th:  http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/2015-organization-talent-rankings/

 

So I'm not sure what criteria you're using to judge our farm system but it looks like that a lot of the experts out there don't find much favorable with what we've got going on right now.  If you can find a respectable publication that has the Orioles system ranked anywhere in the top 10 of baseball I'd sure love to take a look.  

 

Jeez, look at the Cubs heading into this year, look who their top prospects were.  Bryant, Russell, Soler and Schwarber.  Tell me that those guys didn't have a massive impact on what that team did this year.  It's obviously easy to cherrypick what the #1 team had going into last year but look at the #5 Mets who had Syndergaard and Matz pitching for them in the World Series.  The Orioles, at no point in the past 10-15 years have had anything like that.  

 

Anyway, moving on...

 

How the **** can Harold Reynolds think that Mark Trumbo has 40 home run power when he hasn't hit over 34 since 2013?  He dropped off to 14 the year after but bounced back to 22 last year.  For arguments sake, even if Trumbo somehow found a way to hit 35 homers, he still doesn't replace Davis from an OBP perspective, something this team sorely lacks.  Trumbo was at .316 last year, Davis was at .361.  In the year that Chris Davis' batting average was .199 HIS ON BASE PERCENTAGE WAS STILL A POINT HIGHER THAN MARK TRUMBO'S.  .299 to .300. 

 

It's important for this team to get guys who get on base because it doesn't slump as much. If a player's on base percentage is mostly tied to his batting average what use is that player when he slumps hard for two or three weeks?  It's exactly why the offense was inconsistent last year.  At least Davis can work a walk.  Davis was also 5th in pitches per plate appearance last year, Trumbo was 43rd.  Add to the fact that Trumbo is a liability on defense anywhere you put him and he doesn't even come remotely close to replacing Davis on any level.  

 

The bullpen is great but bullpens are volatile.  Read up:  http://www.athleticsnation.com/2015/5/9/8577499/the-unanswered-question-why-are-bullpens-so-volatile

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/9/16/6134271/consistent-bullpens-and-unicorns-reliever-volatility

 

Starters:  Fine, fine, fine.  Gonzo and Tillman are going to bounce back.  

 

Defense:  Not saying it's bad but the corner outfield spots are a concern.   

 

And **** yes I want Machado to go through some bad teams because what I REALLY want this team to do is throw a ton of money and tell him that he's the guy that they're going to build around.  Better to do it now while he's cheaper than in a few years when he hits the market. 

 

To answer another of your questions, I don't expect the Orioles to be able to draft and develop because they've shown that they can't.  If they botch top 5 picks how the hell are they going to get ANYTHING of value between picks 15-25?

 

And that's the problem!  That's the entire problem.  

 

If the Orioles were to trade Jones, Britton, Wieters...what do you mean they wouldn't get ML ready prospects?  That's precisely what they'd get, that's exactly what they got for Bedard and Tejada.  They should be targeting guys that are in AA and AAA and ready to make the jump.  

 

Houston did have a decent wildcard team but that's a great way to dodge my question.  I guess a better way to phrase it would be, would you trade our future for the Astros future straight up?  I don't know how you could pass it up.

 

 

Do you want to win this year or not? This team has a three year window right now. No reason to subtract one of the best closers in the game.

 

Ah, right....the three year window.  Why does it have to be a window?  What's the problem with continually drafting and developing well, signing international free agents and constantly making this team good year in, year out like the Cardinals do?  How can the Cubs and Astros have SO MANY GOOD YOUNG PLAYERS?  How can Keuchel, McHugh and McCullers all be under 30?  How can Altuve, Correa and Springer all be under 26?  How can Rizzo, Russell, Bryant, Schwarber and Soler all be under 26?  How can the Mets have Syndergaard, Harvey, DeGrom and Matz all under 27?

 

Yep, Miguel Gonzalez.  Bounce back year.  

[Hersh]

Having a superstar go through bad teams and thinking that will make him want to resign is...I don't know what the right word is, crazy, insane logic. Not when winning teams will throw just as much money at him. "Hey Manny, we are going to really suck for a couple of years instead of trying to win a championship, please sign with us??"

 

So let's see, did the Cubs develop Arrieta? If not, who did?

 

Jones played 73 games and batted .230 for the Mariners. If the Cubs get credit for Arrieta, the O's get full credit for Jones and Tillman. Unless you are now going to say that the O's made Arrieta into a Cy Young pitcher which would make ZERO sense.

 

Closers are not overrated when you get to the playoffs and one team blows leads in the 8th and 9th inning and the other team locks it down. They are not overrated if you are the Nats or the Jays.

 

Going back forever on who the O's have developed is irrelevant cause we have different people in charge now. The O's have had some epic failures but it's certainly better than it used to be. It's tough to blame the front office for guys like Harvey and Bundy getting injured. That's just some ***** luck.  Plus, who cares about rankings? Jonathon Schoop was not highly ranked as a prospect and hit .256 with 9 HRs in Norfolk before making it to the O's. Bundy was one of the top rated prospects in all of baseball and he has done nothing. Great prospects fail all the time and guys that aren't great prospects become great players.  

 

Furthermore, you fail to say why the O's, who according to you can't develop players, would all of a sudden magically develop all these prospects in the fantasy trades you would make. Who is going to net these can't miss top prospects that the O's don't even need to develop cause they are can't miss?

 

It's a three year window right now with Manny Machado. That is all the O's are guaranteed to have him.

 

Who cares how old players are on a team? Last I checked, it's about winning. KC had a mix of veterans in their 30s and some youth. Go back and check how many teams won the WS with all youth. It's always a mix of players with veterans and youth. Heck, look at the Cubs now and what are they doing. Supplementing with guys in their mid-30s cause they know they won't win with young players at every position.

The O's have some youth, they have some good young prospects that will be here in the next year or two. They don't need more for the sake of needing more. Try to win every year and Machado stays. Get really terrible and Machado will be elsewhere. The guy wants to win and wants to be on a winner every year.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Having a superstar go through bad teams and thinking that will make him want to resign is...I don't know what the right word is, crazy, insane logic. Not when winning teams will throw just as much money at him. "Hey Manny, we are going to really suck for a couple of years instead of trying to win a championship, please sign with us??"

 

So let's see, did the Cubs develop Arrieta? If not, who did?

 

Jones played 73 games and batted .230 for the Mariners. If the Cubs get credit for Arrieta, the O's get full credit for Jones and Tillman. Unless you are now going to say that the O's made Arrieta into a Cy Young pitcher which would make ZERO sense.

 

Closers are not overrated when you get to the playoffs and one team blows leads in the 8th and 9th inning and the other team locks it down. They are not overrated if you are the Nats or the Jays.

 

Going back forever on who the O's have developed is irrelevant cause we have different people in charge now. The O's have had some epic failures but it's certainly better than it used to be. It's tough to blame the front office for guys like Harvey and Bundy getting injured. That's just some ***** luck.  Plus, who cares about rankings? Jonathon Schoop was not highly ranked as a prospect and hit .256 with 9 HRs in Norfolk before making it to the O's. Bundy was one of the top rated prospects in all of baseball and he has done nothing. Great prospects fail all the time and guys that aren't great prospects become great players.  

 

Furthermore, you fail to say why the O's, who according to you can't develop players, would all of a sudden magically develop all these prospects in the fantasy trades you would make. Who is going to net these can't miss top prospects that the O's don't even need to develop cause they are can't miss?

 

It's a three year window right now with Manny Machado. That is all the O's are guaranteed to have him.

 

Who cares how old players are on a team? Last I checked, it's about winning. KC had a mix of veterans in their 30s and some youth. Go back and check how many teams won the WS with all youth. It's always a mix of players with veterans and youth. Heck, look at the Cubs now and what are they doing. Supplementing with guys in their mid-30s cause they know they won't win with young players at every position.

The O's have some youth, they have some good young prospects that will be here in the next year or two. They don't need more for the sake of needing more. Try to win every year and Machado stays. Get really terrible and Machado will be elsewhere. The guy wants to win and wants to be on a winner every year.

 

Clearly you're not understanding what I'm saying about Machado so I'll try again....sign him NOW.  Not after 2018 when he hits free agency.  You know, like they did with Markakis and Jones.  Those two signed deals and stayed before hitting the market, especially when the Orioles were ****ty. This isn't some abstract concept that has no basis in reality.  It's exactly what the Rays did for Evan Longoria the minute he came up to the majors.  Do you think they regret that deal?

 

We can banter back and forth about who's responsible for what but the facts remain that Jones/Tillman are very different than what Arrieta was.  Arrieta was a bit of a bust and a reclamation project.  Jones and Tillman were practically ML ready products.  

 

Do you not know what the Cubs did for Arrieta?  They basically let him throw across his body a little bit more which was his natural motion.  The Orioles spent years trying to "fix" it and make him do things their way.  The Cubs basically got him and fostered an environment to allow him to do what he did naturally.  That, and I believe they had him line up on a different part of the rubber.  Jones simply needed at bats at the ML level which he got here.  The Orioles can take some credit for developing Jones and Tillman but let's not pretend the bulk of the legwork was done elsewhere as they both clearly spent more time in Seattle's development system than Baltimore's.  

 

Closers are completely overrated.  As noted, 2/3 of the teams last year had guys with 30+ saves.  A guy like Rivera comes along once in a generation but the save leaders for 2010 in the AL and NL were Brian Wilson and Rafael Soriano.  http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SV_top_ten.shtml Look at the leaders for saves across the years and look how often the names change.  Here's another article, look at the saves leaders from 2011:   Jose Valverde, Kimbrel,John Axford, J.J. Putz, Rivera, Heath Bell, Drew Storen, Joel Hanrahan,Francisco Cordero, Brandon League, Juan Carlos Oviedo, Perez, Brian Wilson, Carlos Marmol, Jordan Walden, Neftali Feliz, Ryan Madson,Jonathan Papelbon, Sergio Santos.

  That's 19 closers who all saved at least 30 games. Only four are still doing the job -- the three guys Buster mentioned, plus Papelbon, who switched teams (or five if you count Bell in Arizona, although his hold on the role is tenuous). Joe Nathan missed part of 2011 with an injury, so count him as well if you want, although he too has changed teams.  http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/38037/another-reason-closers-are-overrated 

 

Do you want to bet on Britton being our closer in three years the way Jim Johnson once was?  The way George Sherrill lasted for such a long time here?   Remember how dominant Chris Ray was?  He lasted forever.  

 

It's better than it used to be but it sure isn't great.  And you're right, it is **** luck that Bundy and Harvey are hurt but that's compounded by the fact that they don't draft and develop well in the first place.  Bundy and Harvey wouldn't be such glaring issues if there were two other prospects that could step in and take their place.  But when you have your hopes on two guys who both have arm issues and there's not much else around to get excited about, it sucks.

 

I don't think the Orioles can develop players and they certainly can't draft.  I'd take my chances on a few Bedard like returns in trades where the two guys I'm getting back are ML ready prospects.  At that point most of the development work is done.  Are you saying you wouldn't want another Jones and Tillman?  That's what it sounds like.

 

Who cares about rankings?  Seriously?  Did I just not take the time to explain why the Cubs are going to be so good for so long?  Four of their top prospects came up last year and helped them get to the playoffs, that's why I care about rankings.  Because our prospects are a joke compared to theirs, that's why I care about rankings. 

 

Who cares about how old they are?  Are you serious?  You just explained it yourself, younger guys have upside and they're cheaper and under contracts longer.  If I need to explain these things in further detail this isn't a conversation worth having.  Look at the late 90's Yankees with their vaunted core of Jeter, Posada, Pettite and Rivera.  Of course you need some veterans but it can't just all be high priced free agents, that's not a way to win a title or sustain anything for the long term.  Soon you'll have guys that are all over 35 and not living up to their contracts and making way too much money.  

 

Age matters so much because those guys that I mentioned in my previous post haven't hit their ceilings yet and they're already so damn good.  Age is what made Schoop so damn good because he was always younger than the competition he was facing at every stop in the minors.  A 24 year old in AA who is putting up big numbers isn't nearly as valuable as a 20 year old in AA who is putting up respectable numbers.  It's why Harper, Trout and Machado are so valuable, they're better and younger than the rest of their peers.  

 

At this point I think we should just agree to disagree, no one is changing anyones mind here.

[rictus58]

I think this team, over the past 15 years, has been pretty crappy at developing Talent. Especially pitching. And we have guys in the minors, who show promise, but can't get a shot with the club. Alvarez for example. Christian Walker was projected to be a decent talent, but i don't see much to be excited about there.  We have seen a lot of guys come up who aren't bad...but they aren't really all that good either.

I said last year Bundy should have been traded to the team that offered the most.

I went to a few aberdeen games last season (it's 10 minutes from my house), and Mountcastle looks to be good.

I think instead of a 13 games O's plan for 2016, I'm getting a mini plan with the Ironbirds. It's closer & cheaper. I'll get some random O's tickets here and there though.

[MattFancy]

Outside of Machado and Weiters, who are the other top guys we've developed in the last decade? Tillman? Britton? They were both supposed to be top of the rotation starters for years. Tillman has shown flashes, but is inconsistent. Britton is a great closer for us, but that's not what he was intended to be.

 

I've said for the last few years that we suck at developing talent. I harp on the Arietta deal because he looks completely different on the Cubs. Sure the NL doesn't have the hitters of the AL, but that doesn't explain how you go from a 4+ ERA to winning a Cy Young in 2 years.

 

Now we have Gausman who looks to be on a similar trajectory to our other SPs. If we can't get him into our ace, then there's no reason to think Bundy and Harvey will be able to do anything.

[rictus58]

Outside of Machado and Weiters, who are the other top guys we've developed in the last decade? Tillman? Britton? They were both supposed to be top of the rotation starters for years. Tillman has shown flashes, but is inconsistent. Britton is a great closer for us, but that's not what he was intended to be.

 

I've said for the last few years that we suck at developing talent. I harp on the Arietta deal because he looks completely different on the Cubs. Sure the NL doesn't have the hitters of the AL, but that doesn't explain how you go from a 4+ ERA to winning a Cy Young in 2 years.

 

Now we have Gausman who looks to be on a similar trajectory to our other SPs. If we can't get him into our ace, then there's no reason to think Bundy and Harvey will be able to do anything.

I don't think there are any other "Top Guys". But if someone wants to discount the O's developing Jones and Tillman, shouldn't they then get the credit for developing Mr. Cy in Chicago?

 

A lot of the guys who have worked their way through the O's system are servicable. But not top guys. Caleb is slightly better than mediocre. Flaherty is man of many positions (personally i hate him though). Schoop is on track to be very good.

And then we see guys from the minors who show flashes (alvarez, Urretia for example), but then are demoted again for the next flavor of the week.

[Hersh]

Clearly you're not understanding what I'm saying about Machado so I'll try again....sign him NOW.  Not after 2018 when he hits free agency.  You know, like they did with Markakis and Jones.  Those two signed deals and stayed before hitting the market, especially when the Orioles were ****ty. This isn't some abstract concept that has no basis in reality.  It's exactly what the Rays did for Evan Longoria the minute he came up to the majors.  Do you think they regret that deal?

 

We can banter back and forth about who's responsible for what but the facts remain that Jones/Tillman are very different than what Arrieta was.  Arrieta was a bit of a bust and a reclamation project.  Jones and Tillman were practically ML ready products.  

 

Do you not know what the Cubs did for Arrieta?  They basically let him throw across his body a little bit more which was his natural motion.  The Orioles spent years trying to "fix" it and make him do things their way.  The Cubs basically got him and fostered an environment to allow him to do what he did naturally.  That, and I believe they had him line up on a different part of the rubber.  Jones simply needed at bats at the ML level which he got here.  The Orioles can take some credit for developing Jones and Tillman but let's not pretend the bulk of the legwork was done elsewhere as they both clearly spent more time in Seattle's development system than Baltimore's.  

 

Closers are completely overrated.  As noted, 2/3 of the teams last year had guys with 30+ saves.  A guy like Rivera comes along once in a generation but the save leaders for 2010 in the AL and NL were Brian Wilson and Rafael Soriano.  http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SV_top_ten.shtml Look at the leaders for saves across the years and look how often the names change.  Here's another article, look at the saves leaders from 2011:   Jose Valverde, Kimbrel,John Axford, J.J. Putz, Rivera, Heath Bell, Drew Storen, Joel Hanrahan,Francisco Cordero, Brandon League, Juan Carlos Oviedo, Perez, Brian Wilson, Carlos Marmol, Jordan Walden, Neftali Feliz, Ryan Madson,Jonathan Papelbon, Sergio Santos.

  That's 19 closers who all saved at least 30 games. Only four are still doing the job -- the three guys Buster mentioned, plus Papelbon, who switched teams (or five if you count Bell in Arizona, although his hold on the role is tenuous). Joe Nathan missed part of 2011 with an injury, so count him as well if you want, although he too has changed teams.  http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/38037/another-reason-closers-are-overrated

 

Do you want to bet on Britton being our closer in three years the way Jim Johnson once was?  The way George Sherrill lasted for such a long time here?   Remember how dominant Chris Ray was?  He lasted forever.  

 

It's better than it used to be but it sure isn't great.  And you're right, it is **** luck that Bundy and Harvey are hurt but that's compounded by the fact that they don't draft and develop well in the first place.  Bundy and Harvey wouldn't be such glaring issues if there were two other prospects that could step in and take their place.  But when you have your hopes on two guys who both have arm issues and there's not much else around to get excited about, it sucks.

 

I don't think the Orioles can develop players and they certainly can't draft.  I'd take my chances on a few Bedard like returns in trades where the two guys I'm getting back are ML ready prospects.  At that point most of the development work is done.  Are you saying you wouldn't want another Jones and Tillman?  That's what it sounds like.

 

Who cares about rankings?  Seriously?  Did I just not take the time to explain why the Cubs are going to be so good for so long?  Four of their top prospects came up last year and helped them get to the playoffs, that's why I care about rankings.  Because our prospects are a joke compared to theirs, that's why I care about rankings. 

 

Who cares about how old they are?  Are you serious?  You just explained it yourself, younger guys have upside and they're cheaper and under contracts longer.  If I need to explain these things in further detail this isn't a conversation worth having.  Look at the late 90's Yankees with their vaunted core of Jeter, Posada, Pettite and Rivera.  Of course you need some veterans but it can't just all be high priced free agents, that's not a way to win a title or sustain anything for the long term.  Soon you'll have guys that are all over 35 and not living up to their contracts and making way too much money.  

 

Age matters so much because those guys that I mentioned in my previous post haven't hit their ceilings yet and they're already so damn good.  Age is what made Schoop so damn good because he was always younger than the competition he was facing at every stop in the minors.  A 24 year old in AA who is putting up big numbers isn't nearly as valuable as a 20 year old in AA who is putting up respectable numbers.  It's why Harper, Trout and Machado are so valuable, they're better and younger than the rest of their peers.  

 

At this point I think we should just agree to disagree, no one is changing anyones mind here.

 

You've dug yourself a deep hole so it's easier for you to disagree than acknowledge that you are reaching massively.

 

Manny would be much more likely to sign long term with a winning team then if the O's traded everyone. I'm not sure why anyone thinks he would be happy with trading everyone and having the team suck. There is nothing logical about your argument. He's not going to sign for Longoria money at this point so it's not a valid comparison.

 

Now, go back and study World Series winning teams and see how many veterans on typical those teams. You'll find a combination of youth and veterans. As I said, the Cubs are signing guys in their 30s. Their entire starting staff will be 30+ when the season starts. Yes they have some young great players. Likewise the Orioles have some young great players.

 

As far as Bedard trades. How often do you think those happen to teams? This is not fantasy land where all the Orioles players are going to generate massive, lopsided returns. You couldn't get a bag of peanuts for Hardy. Wieters value isn't high now. Jones is coming off an season when he was injured and is 31 already. Britton is the only one that could get a good return. Trading Gausman would be plain dumb. Ubaldo doesn't have massive value. Tillman is coming off bad year. So you want to trade all these players when there value is depressed? Oh, that sounds like a great way to bring back a big haul of top flight prospects. And if they aren't top flight, the O's obviously won't develop them cause you said they won't.

 

Again, the O's didn't need all these great youngsters to win 96 games two seasons ago. Yet they still have one superstar youngster and another potential one in Schoop. Being young for the sake of being young doesn't mean anything.

 

The Mets starting staff is young and talented, but they were a .500 team until they brought in Cespedes. They wanted to get a guy like Zobrist cause they have enough youth.

 

You need to go back and study. The 1996 Yankees, for instance, were filled with guys in their 30s. Pettite? dude was 21-8 with a 3.87 ERA. He had an ERA under 3 twice in 18 years and over 4 in ten years. Posada played in 8 games in 96 and 60 games in 97. He didn't took over full time in 1998 when he was 27 years old. Mariano was a failed starter in 1995 in his first big league season. Guess how old he was?? 26. He was converted to the bullpen so I guess the Yankees failed to develop him. He started closing full time in 1998 when he was 28. Jeter was the true young superstar just like Machado. So to recap, they had a great, great core of four. One was young and the others didn't take off right away.

 

Machado young, Schoop young, Britton has already been closing in dominant fashion for two years and still younger than when Mariano started closing.

 

That's the bell. Class is over this morning.

[Hersh]

Closer is an overrated position. 

 

As I saw someone say on another MB, you have a manager who tries to exploit matchups for 8 innings...essentially playing chess.  Then they throw it all away to put the closer on the bump for the 9th.  Regardless of who is at bat.  Makes no sense LOL. 

 

I think Britton is great, but if you can get a good return...either prospects to help our beyond depleated farm system, or a starter...you do it. 

 

O'Day can serve in that role, or maybe Givens. 

 

The reason managers try to exploit matchups is cause relievers don't all have great numbers against players from both sides of the plate so they have to go lefty on lefty for example. You don't need to do that with closers cause they dominate guys from both sides of the plate. If teams had three shut down guys that had great numbers against batters from either side of the plate, they wouldn't try to exploit matchups. They would do what the royals did. It's not dissimilar to what the O's do with O'day then Britton. It pretty much doesn't matter who is coming up, those guys are coming in cause they shut down batters.

 

The other reason of course is that there is a finite amount of relievers so you can't keep bringing in a new pitcher every other batter. Of course you have to have one or two guys that can get out batters from either side of the plate.