Thinking Skins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Problem I see with the notion of trading up a few spots, is that, for us to do that: 1) There has to be some player who we want, at spot 32. 2) AND he won't be there at 34. 3) AND there has to be no OTHER player who we'd be perfectly happy to take, at 34. 4) AND we have to think that we won;t have a decent chance to trade down, at 34. As many soft spots as we have on this team, odds of all of those things being true? I kinda hate to bring up bad memories, but lets not forget the famous Gibbs trade up (after picking Carlos Rodgers over Aaron Rogers) to get Jason Campbell. How much better would that draft have been if we'd have gotten the right QB there. SO its not too unique a position to be in. Part of me (in hindsight) wants to give Gibbs credit and think that he really wanted Aaron Rogers instead of Campbell but settled for JC because he had to make a pick. I don't think history agrees with that story, but meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayAction Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I hope the Skins get away from the idea that there's always "the guy" that they need instead of identifying all the talented players that can help the team. The article suggests that an extra year on the contract of a first round player may be worth it. They don't mention that the cost to get that extra year is four years of the player that you would have picked in the fifth round. A fifth round player is not chump change. Richard Sherman got a lot of hype in the playoffs and he was a sixth round CB? Garcon was picked in the sixth round as well. It's time for the Skins to get their own starters in rounds 4-6 instead of believing that first and second rounds are the only rounds that matter. When the Skins laud free agents in the offseason they rarely mention that many were originally drafted in rounds 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonnyandSam Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Um, the date on the article is 2013. The date is just a posting mistake. The Skins article and the articles below it are all written with 2014 draft in mind. The writer is clearly writing about the 2014 draft. Now whether it is true or not is another matter. The strategy does make some sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taylor 36 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Um, the date on the article is 2013. That was simply a typo. Last year at this time we did not have the 34th overall pick, so this article was written this month, just with a typo on the year. **EDIT**- SAS beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickyJ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 My source tells me we are trading back. My source says we're trading up to get the 17th overall pick, that we're going to then trade that pick down for a second, a third, and a fourth, and that we're then going to trade those picks for the 34th overall pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 My source says we're trading up to get the 17th overall pick, that we're going to then trade that pick down for a second, a third, and a fourth, and that we're then going to trade those picks for the 34th overall pick. We're obviously talking to the same guy, then. Does he love Chinese food but doesn't know how to use chop sticks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportjunkie07 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not a good idea. There are pros and cons to having a first round pick vs. A second rounder as posters have already mentioned. The key in the NFL post last cba is not really to worry about where players are drafted but to find starters and depth throughout the draft vs free agency. This will allow your team to have major and cheap contract control over the bulk of your players and allow for free agency selections to boost your roster. Besides this draft is going to have a lot of good players at the end of the first and at the beginning of the second, so I doubt there will be a real need to spend a premium to trade up a few spots. For instance I feel there will be several wide receivers available at our pick who could start day 1 for us. Sit back, entertain thoughts of trading down, and see what comes to our pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonez3 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We need that fifth for that Dutch punter. Trade back and trade KC for extra 2nd rounders...OL/WR. Trading up for WR is risky business. Malcomb/Sleepy/DT still fresh in mind. Too much inconsistency in skill position scouting. Hell, teams are consistently whiffing on top 10 picks with QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hate the idea but am assuming Walter Football is just throwing stuff against the wall to get attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commander Adama Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We need that fifth for that Dutch punter. Trade back and trade KC for extra 2nd rounders...OL/WR. Trading up for WR is risky business. Malcomb/Sleepy/DT still fresh in mind. Too much inconsistency in skill position scouting. Hell, teams are consistently whiffing on top 10 picks with QBs. This one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There is some methodology to the madness. That extra contract year is as good as gold. Consider the fact that a late 1st rounder doesn't cost that much, dollar-wise. If you hit with that late 1st, you're adding a starter for a couple mil, AND get to keep them for an extra year when you'd normally have to dish out a lot more money, or lose them to FA. Considering that by the time our top pick this year needs a new contract RGIII, Trent, and probably Morris will have gotten new deals and be eating into our cap a lot, retaining that kind of talent is crucial for a successful team. Of course, it also requires you to actually hit with the pick, and ideally if we're trading anything higher than a 6th, for us to get a player we wouldn't have gotten at 34. I feel like a 6th to secure that extra contract year is decent, but a 5th might be a tad high, considering how early our 5th is. I guess a lot of it comes down to how sure our team is that we'll hit with that 30-32 pick. If there's a guy we feel is a can't miss prospect there then it makes some sense to do it to have that player through 2018, instead of just 2017. Luckily, we don't have to choose right now. We can probably just talk hypotheticals with teams until draft day and see if we like a guy there between 30-32 as those picks come up. And the fact that the sources aren't named doesn't help the odds of it happening, but there is logic to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Acre Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd rather keep the 5th rounder -- we need picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWFLSkins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's not much of a gamble. If the guy you want is still on the board at that time, risking a fifth-round pick to move up and secure said player isn't much of a risk at all. by gamble I mean there is a good chance the guy you want at 32 is still there at 34 and you keep that pick, and otherwise there should still be three guys at least you have valued there at 34, this team falls in love with guys all the time and misses out on good value without moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearrock Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There is some methodology to the madness. That extra contract year is as good as gold. Consider the fact that a late 1st rounder doesn't cost that much, dollar-wise. If you hit with that late 1st, you're adding a starter for a couple mil, AND get to keep them for an extra year when you'd normally have to dish out a lot more money, or lose them to FA. That extra year for picks 11 to 32 costs not an additional year at Rookie salary, but additional year at average of 3rd to 25th highest paid player at the position. Depending on position, that average is not that drastically different from a franchise tag. Also, because the franchise tag requires the higher of 120% of previous year's salary vs. average of top 5 at position, I'm not sure if the 5th year even works out to an additional year of franchise tag without the 120% penalty (on a gut level, I think it probably does. At least, I think the 120% of average of 3rd to 25th probably works out close to the transition tag, which is average of top 10). Is it valuable? Sure. If nothing else, as a negotiating ploy. Is it a huge cap saving? Probably not. I think you pretty much end up getting one exclusive transition tag without sacrificing a year of the franchise tag. I think the new rookie structure increases the value of on the borderline picks (11, 12, 13 vs. 10, 33, 34, 35 vs. 32) compared to the old days. Are picks 10 and 32 more valuable then the few picks right afterwards? Yeah, but probably not by a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWFLSkins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think most teams will want to trade back - going to be tough to find dance partners looking to move forward for anything like value. I didn't know there would be dancing at the draft party. lol.... Yes I agree but you never know until someone falls in love and has to have that player, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickyJ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We're obviously talking to the same guy, then. Does he love Chinese food but doesn't know how to use chop sticks? Aye, sounds like the same one. Strange that he would spread different rumors. I mean, surely all rumors are true. He certainly wouldn't tell us something that isn't true? Right? RIGHT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWFLSkins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I have Abused Fan Syndrome. I'm a source. After that, details tend to vary. I thought it was FAS aka fan abuse syndrome/ are you the one answering the phone at ES central giving all these contradictory quotes and remaining un-named? I thought it was Shanny in the kitchen with a candle stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That extra year for picks 11 to 32 costs not an additional year at Rookie salary, but additional year at average of 3rd to 25th highest paid player at the position. That is true, forgot about that. It's not as cheap as I was thinking, but ultimately could still be quite a bit cheaper, depending on the player. For example, with Orakpo, if we were doing that this year, he'd be owed a little north of 6.5M, which isn't cheap, but is a lot cheaper than the probably 10M or so he'll be looking for per year from a contract. I guess it still comes down to how much we like the guy. If we think he's a great prospect who will need a longer deal 4 years down the road anyway, getting a fifth year for the average of 3-25 isn't a terrible plan. Especially if all it costs to implement is a 6th rounder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Um, the date on the article is 2013. Leave it to the gal' to do the proper investigative work whilst the guys get all worked up over nothing. WTG LSF! Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Aye, sounds like the same one. Strange that he would spread different rumors. I mean, surely all rumors are true. He certainly wouldn't tell us something that isn't true? Right? RIGHT? He's become obsessed with the Gus Malzahn offense. Probably just working on the misdirection. When the waiter brought the check out the other day he blew a curve and that bad mamma jamma landed right on my plate. Talk about talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That said, if a move into the top of the first netted Richardson I'ma making it NOW! Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mania Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 My source tells me we are trading back. I like your source better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That said, if a move into the top of the first netted Richardson I'ma making it NOW! Hail. Word is his stock fell dramatically during the senior bowl. Not to get too far off topic, though. I'd check with Justin on that to be sure, but he should be there late 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This draft is too deep and we have too many holes to be trading up. I don't see it. I can definitely see a scenario where a team would trade up to get our 34th pick. Some studs will fall out of the first because teams will reach on QBs. The real question is whether we feel like there's enough studs left to try to grab two of them in the second round, or do we take the stud in hand at 34. I truly think we could get two great players in the 2nd if we trade back, it will just depend on whether a deal presents itself or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Word is his stock fell dramatically during the senior bowl. Not to get too far off topic, though. I'd check with Justin on that to be sure, but he should be there late 2nd. With this and Doug Worthington claiming his rightful place in the title, you've made my day lil' Bro. *Ol' clinking beer glass smiley. Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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