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The Coaching Thread/Race to Black Monday: 1/6/25

88Comrade2000

By 88Comrade2000
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  • 88Comrade2000 changed the title to The Coaching Thread/Race to Black Monday: 1/24
88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

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Well the hiring cycle is finally over, unless our future owner makes a late change.

 

Panthers: Frank Reich- A good hire but his success depends on getting a qb. He failed in Indy because Colts kept changing qbs after Luck retired.

 

Texans: Demeco Ryans- Former player comes home. 4th coach in 4 years. Good hire. They gave him 6 years. They got the picks to rebuild. It all starts at qb. Good hire.

 

Broncos: Sean Payton- Good hire. Sean’s success depends on you guessed it, QB. If Russ has anything left in the tank, Sean can bring it out. If Russ is done, Sean needs to move on in 24 but then Denver needs to get a qb in 24 and dump Russ.

 

Colts: Shane Steichen- Good hire, I guess. Going the Eagles OC again. He will only be successful if the Colts draft a good qb.

 

Cards: Jonathan Gannon- Hiring the Eagles DC. No clue if a good hire or not but hiring a defensive coach is probably what the Cards needed.  He probably won’t succeed as Kyler Murray is a head case. If Cards suck in 23, they need to move on from Murray. 
 

 

The common theme for the new hires to be successful, QB.

 

 

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

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23 only saw 5 new coaches. 24 should see at least the same amount but maybe a larger number.

 

 

Commanders- If prospective new owners were gauging Sean Payton’s interest; Ron is basically dead man walking. He’s likely the first coach fired, especially if he has his usual slow start. Only a playoff win, not just a playoff appearance, likely gets him to 24. I don’t think the new owner will give Ron an extension, if he returns in 24. He will just let Ron’s contract run out and go from there.

 

Cowboys- McCarthy always on the hot seat. His replacement is still there, Dan Quinn. If the Boys aren’t in the championship game, think Jerry moves on.

 

Bears- If the Bears have another poor season, major house cleaning. The GM, the qb and coach Eberflus are on the way out.


Bucs- Todd Bowles. He only got the job because Arians pushed it.  A nonplayoff season and he’s out.

 

Saints- Another losing season and Dennis Allen likely gone.

 

Falcons- Arthur Smith needs to take advantage of the weak nfc south. He fails to make playoffs, he’s gone.

 

There’s always a chance Pete Carroll retires. Sean Mcvay has thought about walking away 2 years now. Maybe he retires for good if Rams have another poor season.

 

 

 

 

 

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Simmsy

Simmsy

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You know what? I'm not a Brady, Belicheck or a Pats fan, but I feel like I must defend Bill on this one. Brady didn't go to the Texans or the Bears, he went to Tampa. A Tampa team ready to make a run for the SB, Brady had his pick of any team he wanted to go to and he picked the one that was on the cusp of a ring. Bill didn't have that choice, he had to rebuild his house after Brady moved out. We all know it takes time to rebuild, Brady didn't have to do any of that. In fact, as soon as it looked like Tampa was going to suck, Brady quit the NFL altogether.

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CobraCommander

CobraCommander

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On 4/7/2023 at 5:58 AM, Simmsy said:

You know what? I'm not a Brady, Belicheck or a Pats fan, but I feel like I must defend Bill on this one. Brady didn't go to the Texans or the Bears, he went to Tampa. A Tampa team ready to make a run for the SB, Brady had his pick of any team he wanted to go to and he picked the one that was on the cusp of a ring. Bill didn't have that choice, he had to rebuild his house after Brady moved out. We all know it takes time to rebuild, Brady didn't have to do any of that. In fact, as soon as it looked like Tampa was going to suck, Brady quit the NFL altogether.

Record don't lie. You're nothing in the modern NFL without a franchise QB. Belichik hit the equivalent of a Powerball ticket when they selected Brady in the 6th.

 

Sure it's easier for a Franchise QB to pick and chose a winner than it is for a Coach to pickup a franchise QB on the open market. But the fact is Brady proved it and Belicheck hasn't. Not since Tom left, and not before Tom came to Foxborough. I'm not just looking at his record since it all came apart.

 

Also look at the Belicheck coaching tree, It's an abject failure.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/bill-belichicks-coaching-tree-hasnt-fared-well-nfl-head-coaches

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SkinsFTW

SkinsFTW

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On 4/7/2023 at 5:58 AM, Simmsy said:

Brady had his pick of any team he wanted to go to and he picked the one that was on the cusp of a ring. 

 

Not quite. Nobody even wanted Brady except for 2 teams because they all thought that he was done. He picked the best one. I think the other one was the Raiders. 

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

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About a month until training camp.  My gut says 2024 is going to be on the high side for coaching openings.  The usual firings but you will see some surprise changes, depending on how that team performs to expectations.

 

AFC East

 

Pats- Kraft already has said he won't be happy if the Pats don't return to the playoffs.  The Pats are the 4th best team in the division, if Tua stays healthy. Otherwise they are 3rd best.  In the very stacked AFC, it's hard to see Pats returning to the playoffs.  It wouldn't shock me to see a parting with Bill, despite him being so close to breakings Shula's wins record. Kraft

 

Bills- If the Bills fail to make the Superbowl again, could the Pegulas decide that McDermott peaked and can't get them over the hump? Could they decide to get over the hump, they need a new coach to do that.   Think what happened with Bucs and Dungy and Gruden.  Dungy couldn't get over the hump and he got fired. Tampa hires Gruden and he wins a Superbowl. 

 

Jets- Robert Saleh is expected to make the playoffs at minimum.  Jets owner probably expecting at least an AFC Championship appearance.  If Jets fail to make playoffs with Rodgers, Saleh could get the boot. These are the Jets after all. 

 

AFC North

 

Browns- Okay, they finally have Watson for a full season. AFC North is a tough division but the Browns expects a playoff berth. Stefanski likely to get the boot, if the Browns fail to make the playoffs.

 

AFC South 

 

Titans-  Their window has closed.  If they miss playoffs, maybe the Titans to start over with a new coach??

 

AFC West

 

Chargers- Staley should've been fired after that playoff collapse to the Jags. Another playoff disaster or missing the playoffs and he could finally be gone. They don't want to waste Herbert's prime with this idiot.

 

Raiders-  If Raiders fail, does MCDaniels pay the price?  I doubt it because they are the 4th best team and you really can't rely on Jimmy G to stay healthy.  I think Davis will want MCDaniels to have time to get it right.  You never know though.

 

NFC West

 

Unless Sean Mcvay decides to retire, I expect no changes in this division.

 

NFC South

 

Falcons- Another playoff miss and Falcons likely make a change.  They pinning it all on Ridder being the real deal. If he busts, likely a change in 24.

 

Bucs- Bowles has the team more to his likely.  If Baker can play decent, they should compete with Saints for division.  If not, Tampa likely to clean house.

 

Saints-  Saints should be favorites to win South with Carr.  Saints fail to make playoffs and Allen gets the boot.

 

NFC North

 

Bears-  If Justin doesn't improve and have the Bears at least competing for a playoff spot if the Rodgersless North; maybe Bears make a change?

 

NFC East

 

Commanders- Ron is likely dead man walking.  Can't see him really returning next year unless he goes deep in the playoffs.  Josh wants his GM. Ron has GM power and may decline to give that up. That alone could see a parting of the ways.  I still think Ron is likely to be the first coach fired.

 

Boys-  After back to back 12 win seasons, Jerry expects at least an NFC championship appearance.  It's likely Mccarthy's last season.

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

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The Hot Seat  

 

1. Ron Rivera-  New owner. He hasn't had a winning season since 2017.  If Ron wants to return or even get an extension, he must be successful. Strong candidate to be first coach fired.

2. Mike Mccarthy-  Anything short of an NFC championship appearance and he's likely gone. DC Dan Quinn likely would replace him.

3. Matt Eberflus- Bears near to show significant improvement. Not necessarily playoffs but showing they are heading in right direction. If not, they may move on.

4. Dennis Allen-  If Saints fail to make playoffs with Carr; he's gone.

5. Todd Bowles- Bucs expected to suck, even with Baker as QB.  He's gone.

6. Josn McDaniels- Raiders likely to suck. Davis realizes his mistake and starts over again.

7. Brandon Staley- A nonplayoff season and he likely gets the boot.

8. Kevin Stefanski-  They expect a Watson rebound and expect Browns to compete in tough AFc North for a playoffs.  If Browns aren't competitive, they will move on from him.

9. Bill Bellichek- Yes, old Bill is on the hot seat. Kraft isn't pleased with the post Brady record and if Pats don't make the playoffs; Kraft will part ways with Bill. 

 

Other possible coaching changes 

1. Sean Mcvay- has flirted with retirement last 2 years. Another poor season and he may step away from coaching for a while. Maybe do broadcasting.

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

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USA Today: NFL head coach hot seat rankings: Ron Rivera, Mike McCarthy on notice entering 2023 

Above link for full article by Nate Davis.

 

>>>

The 2023 NFL season will commence with five new head coaches patrolling the sideline. It’s actually a fairly modest number given the typical HC turnover in the league year over year. In 2022, 10 teams made changes under the headset – though some for unexpected reasons (read: Jon Gruden and Bruce Arians). Since the end of the 2020 season, there have been 22 new hires or promotions league-wide.

 

And while it might seem premature – unfair even – to discuss a coach’s job security before Week 1 has even begun, the NFL is a win-(soon)-or-else proposition, and patience is most certainly not a commodity widely in stock. The Carolina Panthers’ Matt Rhule and Indianapolis Colts’ Frank Reich didn’t make it to the second half of last season, and the Denver Broncos canned Nathaniel Hackett before his inaugural go-round even wrapped.<<<

 

They listed 7 coaches on the hot seat.  Ron was #1 and Bill Bellichek was #7.

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Voice_of_Reason

Voice_of_Reason

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On 9/5/2023 at 10:18 PM, 88Comrade2000 said:

USA Today: NFL head coach hot seat rankings: Ron Rivera, Mike McCarthy on notice entering 2023 

Above link for full article by Nate Davis.

 

>>>

The 2023 NFL season will commence with five new head coaches patrolling the sideline. It’s actually a fairly modest number given the typical HC turnover in the league year over year. In 2022, 10 teams made changes under the headset – though some for unexpected reasons (read: Jon Gruden and Bruce Arians). Since the end of the 2020 season, there have been 22 new hires or promotions league-wide.

 

And while it might seem premature – unfair even – to discuss a coach’s job security before Week 1 has even begun, the NFL is a win-(soon)-or-else proposition, and patience is most certainly not a commodity widely in stock. The Carolina Panthers’ Matt Rhule and Indianapolis Colts’ Frank Reich didn’t make it to the second half of last season, and the Denver Broncos canned Nathaniel Hackett before his inaugural go-round even wrapped.<<<

 

They listed 7 coaches on the hot seat.  Ron was #1 and Bill Bellichek was #7.

Interesting, of that list, only 2 lost their opener: Chargers and Patriots. 

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Warhead36

Warhead36

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5 hours ago, No Nonsense said:

Live look at Brandon Staley's chair.

 

 

 

I wanna like him as coach because I like a lot of what he does and his approach/style but something with that Charger team is just missing. You got Herbert you should be competing with the top dogs of the AFC. 

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Voice_of_Reason

Voice_of_Reason

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Going by the USA Today list:

 

#1: Ron 2-0

#2: Stefanski (Cleveland) 1-0, plays tomorrow)

#3: McCarthy (Dallas) 2-0

#4: Staley (Charger) 0-2

#5: McDaniels (Raiders) 1-1

#6: Bowles (Tampa) 2-0

#7: Belichick (Patriots) probably 0-2


Staley might not make it out of September.  Everybody else will make it at least to Halloween is my guess.  

 

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

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2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Going by the USA Today list:

 

#1: Ron 2-0

#2: Stefanski (Cleveland) 1-0, plays tomorrow)

#3: McCarthy (Dallas) 2-0

#4: Staley (Charger) 0-2

#5: McDaniels (Raiders) 1-1

#6: Bowles (Tampa) 2-0

#7: Belichick (Patriots) probably 0-2


Staley might not make it out of September.  Everybody else will make it at least to Halloween is my guess.  

 

Raiders aren’t that good. After Staley, McDaniels will be next.  Also, Eberflus with Bears unlikely to return in 24; as Bears are bad and Fields is a bust. I can see the Bears completely clean house next year.

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No Nonsense

No Nonsense

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14 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Going by the USA Today list:

 

#1: Ron 2-0

#2: Stefanski (Cleveland) 1-0, plays tomorrow)

#3: McCarthy (Dallas) 2-0

#4: Staley (Charger) 0-2

#5: McDaniels (Raiders) 1-1

#6: Bowles (Tampa) 2-0

#7: Belichick (Patriots) probably 0-2


Staley might not make it out of September.  Everybody else will make it at least to Halloween is my guess.  

 


This list have to have been made before the season? 

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