Destino Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 So which specific part of their process for collecting polling, and which specific part of their statistical analysis do you believe they screwed up so badly? The polling data doesn't appear to match up with the primary results which are more definitive. That's what JMS appears to be saying while the rest of you seem determined not to see it. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 He got the lead in the first place by appealing to the racist vote. That's what got him out in front: Building walls and banning Muslims. He got the lead by identifying a handful of things he wanted to achieve in a Trump presidency. Things that appealed to a wide majority of Americans. (1) Rebuild America's infrastructure. (2) Fix immigration policy. (3) Change unfair trade treaties with countries like Mexico and China which leave us hundreds of billions in the hole. (4) Take care of Vets. (5) Repeal Obamacare in favor of real Universal Care system. (6) Keep us out of wars in the ME where we have no vital interests. (7) Special interests are corrupting the government.. Elect Trump and I won't be beholding to any special interests because I'm going to self finance my campaign.. And he said he would accomplish all these things by bringing a business persons perspective to the decision making. A perspective which career politicians don't have. It's a powerful powerful message. And make no mistake it's a message which will win a general election if the Democratic party doesn't get it's head out of it's buttocks and take this man seriously... Calling him a racist isn't going to win this election for Hillary. you have to have an alternant vision. You have to take him on on the issues. Frankly Donalds message is moderate and centrist. compared to the rest of the GOP field. I'm not a scientist, but as far as I know, generally hypotheses are brought forward with supporting data. Did you happen to read that part about "And yet we know he's up nationally by 11 points and was up even more in Jan when this favorability poll came out." That was supporting data for my hypothesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/bernie-sanders-endorsements-alan-grayson-219966 Edit: Nevermind, looks like the guy is more interested in tapping Bernie's donors than anything else. Still a suspicious Bernie endorsement is better than all this yelling about Drumpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This is how bad things are. I'm actually pulling for Marco Rubio Too little, too late I'm afraid.....although he can add you to his long list of endorsements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 And Trumps ideas are superior to hiyllaryh's Good point. Trump says he's going to cut the EPA and the Department of Education, get rid of Obama Care, defund Planned Parenthood even though he said they do some good stuff, get rid of limits/restrictions on guns and make it much easier for people to carry them everywhere including schools, build a ridiculous wall that keeps getting bigger and more expensive (his solution to stopping illegal immigration into the country and heroin made locally in New England), start trade wars with other countries, insult other world leaders and diplomats who we weren't at odds with, ban Muslims from entering the US, deport 11 million people, make it easier to sue journalists and the media and harder to criticize him, do much worse than water boarding because torture works and he wants to use it and not just to get information.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Frankly Donalds message is moderate and centrist. Reminds of why I hate moderates and centrists......flexible little critters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The polling data doesn't appear to match up with the primary results which are more definitive. That's what JMS appears to be saying while the rest of you seem determined not to see it. What am I missing? The polling data shows that Trump has the highest familiarity amongst Republican voters. The polling data shows that Trump has a really high favorability amongst Republican voters who are familiar with him. The polling data also shows that trump has really high unfavorability amongst Republican voters who are familiar with him as well. It's why not only is he pulling a ton of votes himself, there are also lots of voters coming out and voting against him as well. The issue is that there isn't one single candidate who is uniformly pulling in the anti-Trump vote. All one has to do was open the two links and read them in depth instead of forming knee jerk reactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm not voting against Trump, I'm voting for my candidate now Hillary..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 "Grayson reached out to the Internet to tell him whom he should support, on GraysonPrimary.com. Nearly 400,000 votes later, and the results were overwhelmingly in Sanders’ favor: 86 percent Sanders, 14 percent Clinton." That's just the kind of scientific polling method that Ron Paul supporters used to embrace so warmly. On closer examination, it seems he might using this as a ploy to tap Bernie's huge army of small donors. From the article: The post also repeatedly asked for donations for both Grayson's and Sanders’ campaigns, linking to a donation page that divides contributions evenly between both campaigns. I was happy about his endorsement until I noticed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 BULL****!!! Let's review.. you said.. Poor Trump having his character assassinated by people trying to paint the picture that he is a bigot just because he said he would be looking into it when someone asked him if we could get rid of all the Muslims. What he actually said was when asked if he favored keeping a database on Muslims in the United States by a reporter, Trump said we need to look at a lot of things. He neither endorsed the reporters idea, no dismissed it. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2015/nov/24/donald-trumps-comments-database-american-muslims/ on Thursday, Nov. 19, when a Yahoo News reporter asked Trump about his position on increased surveillance of American Muslims. "France declared this state of emergency where they closed the borders and they established some degree of warrantless searches. I know how you feel about the borders, but do you think there is some kind of state of emergency here, and do we need warrantless searches of Muslims?" the reporter asked. "We’re going to have to do certain things that were frankly unthinkable a year ago," Trump said. The Yahoo reporter then asked Trump, "Do you think we might need to register Muslims in some type of database, or note their religion on their ID?" Trump responded, "We’re going to have to look at a lot of things very closely. We’re going to have to look at the mosques. We’re going to have to look very, very carefully." Here, Trump didn’t reject the idea of a Muslim registry, but he also didn’t give an affirmative "yes" that he wanted to create such a database. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 On closer examination, it seems he might using this as a ploy to tap Bernie's huge army of small donors. I was happy about his endorsement until I noticed that. I don't blame him for doing what works for him. Politics is a dog eat dog world. But yes, was a stunt. "More than 400,000 people voted in the online poll, according to Grayson's release, but all of them had to sign up with an email address. That means Grayson will now send them all fundraising pitches and campaign updates. In a way, the online superdelegate poll was a savvy move, but many observers saw it for what it was. " http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/senate-candidate-alan-grayson-officially-endorses-bernie-sanders-but-many-see-it-as-a-stunt-8285897 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I think Sacks is maybe referring to this: (but i'm not certain) http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-declines-to-correct-man-who-says-obama-is-muslim/ "We have a problem in this country. It's called Muslims," said the first man Trump called on to ask a question. "We know our current president is one. You know he's not even an American." Trump first interrupted, "We need this question--this is the first question?" he said, laughing. Trump, who was a driver of the "birther" movement that claimed Obama wasn't born in the U.S, let the man continue. "We have training camps growing where they want to kill us. That's my question," the questioner continued. "When can we get rid of it?" Trump did not dispute the man's assertions and said he'd heard others raise the issue. "We're going to be looking at a lot of different things. And you know, a lot of people are saying that, and a lot of people are saying that bad things are happening out there," said Trump. "We're going to be looking at that and plenty of other things." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Good point. Trump says he's going to cut the EPA and the Department of Education, get rid of Obama Care, defund Planned Parenthood even though he said they do some good stuff, get rid of limits/restrictions on guns and make it much easier for people to carry them everywhere including schools, build a ridiculous wall that keeps getting bigger and more expensive (his solution to stopping illegal immigration into the country and heroin made locally in New England), start trade wars with other countries, insult other world leaders and diplomats who we weren't at odds with, ban Muslims from entering the US, deport 11 million people, make it easier to sue journalists and the media and harder to criticize him, do much worse than water boarding because torture works and he wants to use it and not just to get information.... And again you are just making things up. Donald Trump stood on stage in South Carolina and defended planned parenthood and said he would not defund it and took heat from Rubio and Cruz for doing so. And yeah Trump is critical of ACA, would repeal it and replace it with Universal Care. Not entirely unlike a liberal position.. The only issue here is more details on Trumps universal coverage plan. As for Trade wars.. no liberal or moderate an few democrats are going to disagree with Trump on Trade. US trade policy advocating for massive Trade imbalances continues to be a real problem for our middle class and jobs. Liberal message isn't all that different from Donald's. He doesn't favor a permanent ban on Muslims, Nor is deporting 11 million illegals an extrodinaty remedy for our nations illegal problem.. George W did it and so did Bill Clinton. And as far as his endorsing Torture, that only differentiates him from Bernie Sanders in this race.. Not the Cuban boys nor Hillary. At least Hillary seems to change her mind on torture depending upon the audience. Not dissimilar to her support of the Iraq War. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2008/feb/01/barack-obama/clinton-changed-on-torture/ Clinton changed on torture In October 2006, Clinton spoke about exceptions to a no-torture policy when speaking to the New York Daily News. Clinton mentioned a "ticking time bomb" scenario in which a captured terrorist has knowledge of an imminent terror attack and interrogators want to use torture. "In the event we were ever confronted with having to interrogate a detainee with knowledge of an imminent threat to millions of Americans, then the decision to depart from standard international practices must be made by the president, and the president must be held accountable," she said. "That very, very narrow exception within very, very limited circumstances is better than blasting a big hole in our entire law." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm sorry Larry let me catch you up.. No Excuses posted this poll in post #16580 showing Donald high disapproval. my hypothesis is this poll can't be meaningful of how people actually vote because as you can see.. Trump has the 6th most favorables and nearly double the negatives vs the GOP field... Uh, no, it says absolutely nothing at all close to those claims. The polling data doesn't appear to match up with the primary results which are more definitive. That's what JMS appears to be saying while the rest of you seem determined not to see it. What am I missing? The fact that the poll says absolutely nothing about Trump's favorables or unfavorables, among GOP primary voters? (Nor of anybody else's in the field)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think Sacks is maybe referring to this: (but i'm not certainYes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It would help if you bothered to read that gallup poll in depth. It would help if you actually posted the information to the board you wanted to use to support your case. Here's another one that might help explain If you don't understand what the data is showing, then I can't help you. What the polls says isn't where you screwed up. It's what the poll doesn't say. Which you now seem to have abandoned... My work is done here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 This election keeps getting weirder . . . https://www.rawstory.com/2016/02/jesse-ventura-says-hell-mount-his-own-presidential-run-if-bernie-sanders-loses-democratic-primary/ Jesse Ventura says he’ll mount his own presidential run — if Bernie Sanders loses Democratic primary . . . Ventura, who was elected in 1998 as a Reform Party candidate, indicated that he would run with former New Mexico Gov. and Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson as a running mate should Clinton defeat Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) for the Democratic Party nomination. . . . Why the **** not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 And again you are just making things up. Donald Trump stood on stage in South Carolina and defended planned parenthood and said he would not defund it and took heat from Rubio and Cruz for doing so. And yeah Trump is critical of ACA, would repeal it and replace it with Universal Care. Not entirely unlike a liberal position.. The only issue here is more details on Trumps universal coverage plan. As for Trade wars.. no liberal or moderate an few democrats are going to disagree with Trump on Trade. US trade policy advocating for massive Trade imbalances continues to be a real problem for our middle class and jobs. Liberal message isn't all that different from Donald's. He doesn't favor a permanent ban on Muslims, Nor is deporting 11 million illegals an extrodinaty remedy for our nations illegal problem.. George W did it and so did Bill Clinton. And as far as his endorsing Torture, that only differentiates him from Bernie Sanders in this race.. Not the Cuban boys nor Hillary. At least Hillary seems to change her mind on torture depending upon the audience. Not dissimilar to her support of the Iraq War. Trump said Planned Parenthood does good stuff for women, but he's going to defund it because of abortion. And Trump has been talking about torture as punishment as well, not just to get information, but he also went way farther than anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 This election keeps getting weirder . . . https://www.rawstory.com/2016/02/jesse-ventura-says-hell-mount-his-own-presidential-run-if-bernie-sanders-loses-democratic-primary/ What the hell? I may have just found the recipient of my protest vote. He's a nut job, but at least he's a likable nut job. Nut job or not, he's better than Hillary and Trump. Sadly this is only half joking. lol. Jesse is legitimately crazy. He's not a con man like Trump - he's actually nuts. He's a conspiracy theorist on the level of Alex Jones. Unlike Trump, Jesse actually believes in the madness he spouts, rather than just sort of letting it fly to get attention and support the way the Donald did with his Obama birth certificate stunt. Donald doesn't believe there actually are secret Muslim terrorist training camps scattered around the USA, he just shamelessly caters to the prejudices of his audience. Jesse also might have an electability problem, in that he sued the American Sniper Navy Seal (Chris Kyle) for defamation, and when Kyle died, Jesse didn't drop the lawsuit. Instead, he got a million dollar judgment that Kyle's widow and kids are going to have to pay. That's pretty scummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It would help if you actually posted the information to the board you wanted to use to support your case. What the polls says isn't where you screwed up. It's what the poll doesn't say. Which you now seem to have abandoned... My work is done here. What a word salad. Now you are talking gibberish because you know you're wrong and are too proud to admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm not voting against Trump, I'm voting for my candidate now Hillary..... . Say what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think the Trump constituency has come down to the aging white boomers and the born agains For the boomers, their entire political viewpoint revolves around creating the summer of 1954 again. We all know those people. For the born agains, they've been taught since birth to not believe in science, reason, or anything the media says. Just that the earth is 5000 years old and that the bible is science. So it's no wonder that when a candidate comes along and every other sentence he utters is an outright lie, it's no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Okay the silliness about Ventura aside, back to real news: http://www.thenation.com/article/bernie-sanders-just-won-two-of-his-biggest-endorsements-in-a-long-campaign/ Bernie Sanders Just Won Three of His Biggest Endorsements in a Long Campaign As pundits rush to declare the race over, Robert Reich, Tulsi Gabbard and Alan Grayson say “not so fast.” Even before Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders by a wide margin in the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary, the political and media elites that police American democracy were busy writing Sanders out of the running. This is what happens in American politics. From the earliest stages of the primary process, pundits and political operatives try to wrap things up in tidy little boxes of conventional wisdom. Again and again the message is delivered: everything is finished but the final counting up of delegates, despite the fact that the vast majority of states have not voted. . . Something has upset the rush to write off Sanders, however. It seems that a good many Democrats, including several prominent partisans who just endorsed the insurgent, are disinclined to embrace the conventional wisdom. . . . These endorsements are encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 What a word salad. Now you are talking gibberish because you know you're wrong and are too proud to admit it. No Excuses, meet JMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/trump-dismissed-doom-and-gloom-predictions-at-the-height-of?utm_term=.if4b88Y6A#.kqW8441nP Trump Dismissed “Doom And Gloom” Predictions At The Height Of The Housing Bubble Months before the housing market began to collapse, Donald Trump wrote a blog post for his now-defunct Trump University website dismissing claims of “doom and gloom” and painting a much rosier picture of the real estate market. Trump’s opponents have attacked him in recent days for his controversial and now-defunct Trump University, a for-profit real estate education program that promised to teach its “students” the secrets and methods behind Trump’s success. The program currently faces three civil lawsuits, including one from New York Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman, who, at the time he filed the suit, said Trump had “used his celebrity status and personally appeared in commercials making false promises to convince people to spend tens of thousands of dollars they couldn’t afford for lessons they never got.” As part of the program, Trump maintained a blog as “chairman of Trump University,” where he offered advice and thoughts on business and current events. While most of his posts were innocuous, one from September 2005, in which Trump dismissed “doom and gloom” real estate market predictions, proved to be particularly fraught in hindsight. While real estate prices soared throughout 2005, the market began to collapse in 2006 and reached full crisis mode by 2007. Trump telling it like it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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