Election 16: Donald Trumps wins Presidency. God Help us all!

[tshile]

There are many people who think the Fed keeping interest rates near zero as the lefts version of trickle down. Paul Ryan is wAY late to the game on that thought. No oxymoron. It's politics

 

It's incredible to me the talking points the GOP comes up with re: economic policy.

 

The ease with which the Fox Business Channel pundits contradict themselves throughout the day is also incredible.

 

According them QE would never end even though it did, rates would never be able ti rise even though they are, the FED could never live up to their plan even though they continue to do so, unemployment would never go down even though it did, the economy is in shambles even though the data says otherwise (including the FED's actions which were contingent on the economy improving.) The list goes on and on.

 

The GOP has painted themselves into a corner over the last ~7 years, and they've done so in such a loud an obnoxious way that they can't save face now they can only continue to push their narrative hoping majority of people don't notice how wrong they have been and how consistent they have been in being wrong. I hate the democrat's PC and "social justice" platform with all of my heart, I hate how they twist and contort stats about issues to push agendas, but the GOP's stance on economic policy is so wrong headed and so much more important that they're forcing me to just accept the democrat's policy on those issues. I hate it. I absolutely hate it.

 

Now if someone would actually do something about the banks. (lol Sanders lol)

[No Excuses]

To be fair the GOP is able to twist the narrative on the economy because although it is improving and trending up, majority of the labor force isn't seeing any substantial improvement or benefit from it. The economy is doing great and it's selectively benefiting a very minuscule portion of the country. And for what its worth, the GOP has done its best to keep it that way and the Democrats don't do enough to fight it, save for a handful.

[mistertim]

There's going to be tremendous pressure on Ryan not to compromise. Remember, Boehner eventually became hated in Republican circles for compromising too much. There are already whispers that nearly unseated him before he was selected that he was not a pure enough Republican.

 

For nearly 8 years, compromise has been a four letter word to the GOP... and I believe that has more to do with their philosophy than their educational policy.

Yeah the right wing is already pissed at him for daring to compromise on the spending bill. They will start frothing at the mouth and call for his head if he keeps doing it. Well, frothing at the mouth more than usual at least...I think that is their default mode.

[tshile]

To be fair the GOP is able to twist the narrative on the economy because although it is improving and trending up, majority of the labor force isn't seeing any substantial improvement or benefit from it. The economy is doing great and it's selectively benefiting a very minuscule portion of the country. And for what its worth, the GOP has done its best to keep it that way and the Democrats don't do enough to fight it, save for a handful.

 

Oh I agree, neither party is really out to fight the wealthy and how they rig the system. They benefit from it and in many cases they are part of the wealthy (even if barely.) They're interested in keeping the rest of us just happy enough - or most of us just happy enough - that they can win support without rocking the boat. There are a few that aren't like that but they're the minority, I'm sure some of them are republicans.

 

I think the GOP is successful because economic data is hard to digest if you're not constantly involved in it and/or educated on the matter. It's hard to find reliable sources. I spend a lot of time reading reports on this stuff (what I consider a lot of time for someone who otherwise has no interest in it) and it's hard. I probably do a poor job overall in terms of how I think of the economy's state after reading things. It's right up there with foreign policy. It's incredibly easy to fall into a trap of just finding people to tell you what to think, which then leads to people just falling into the talking points of the party they favor.

 

For crying out loud it feels like majority of people think stock market performance ===> how the economy is doing. Even worse, they don't even really evaluate the stock market in its entirety they just follow a few popular indexes and draw sweeping conclusions about the economy from that.

 

Someone said to me the other day - the market ended down 2% in 2015 how is the economy doing better?

 

When that's what you're working with it's easy to understand how the GOP gets away with what they do (and the Left when they're doing it.)

[JMS]

There are many people who think the Fed keeping interest rates near zero as the lefts version of trickle down. Paul Ryan is wAY late to the game on that thought. No oxymoron. It's politics

 

There is a sizeable minority in the GOP who think the Federal Reserve is an unelected economic private overlord who profits and runs roughshot over our elected officials.    They are very distrustful of the Fed and want it desolved.  So Ryan is pandering to those fringe voters within the GOP to establish his street cred.

 

I think Ryan is smarter than to actually think of the Fed in that way or want to desolve the Fed.   I also think he's got that Political gene which allows him to tell folks he doesn't agree with exactly what they want to hear.

[RVAbrendan]

http://time.com/4177441/bernie-sanders-iowa-poll-january/

 

Sanders has a five-point lead on Clinton in the early voting state.

 

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders overtook former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in an Iowa poll Tuesday.

According to a survey of likely caucus-goers by Quinnipiac University, 49% back Sanders, 44% are in favor of Clinton and 4% back former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. This is the end of a months-long lead for Clinton in Iowa, the first state in the nominating process for the presidency. Clinton led Sanders by 11 percentage points in the last Quinnipiac poll, which was released in mid-December.

[TheGoodBits]

Wow, that's significant. Kinda figured the NBC poll was an anomaly given how consistent the polls had been for awhile. But two polls in a row... represents a potential significant momentum gain for Bernie.

[JMS]

Wow, that's significant. Kinda figured the NBC poll was an anomaly given how consistent the polls had been for awhile. But two polls in a row... represents a potential significant momentum gain for Bernie.

FEEL THE BERN !!

 

 

​I think Bernie is charismatic as hell and should scare the hell out of Hillary.  I think Hillary and many voters just think he's unelectable, but if he wins the first two primaries; he could take this election. I don't think Hillary is safe by any means. She's running the same campaign Mitt Romney ran, the inevitable based upon fundraising.

If Bernie's opponent were Trump in the general!!..  Now those would be some prime time world class debates..    They might need to bring down a fire truck to hose them off.

[visionary]

Looks like the right wing and left wing are getting what they wanted. Hope people won't be too disappointed by the results.

[JMS]

Looks like the right wing and left wing are getting what they wanted. Hope people won't be too disappointed by the results.

It is very interesting.. The liberal wing of the Democratic Party put Obama in office seven years ago. Looking for change and a liberal voice. I think they've been very disappointed in Obama too, as he's turned out to be quite moderate, pragmatic and even a little conservative. I could see them turning out for the Bern if they thought he had a shot at defeating Hillary..

And you look over at the right and the same thing seems to be happening there. Donald Trump is the ultimate F. U. to the GOP establishment. He brags that he doesn't take money from them, ( he actually has been though )... He also famously proclaimed in the first debate he wouldn't necessarily support the ultimate GOP candidate if it wasn't him. He's got brash ideas that a lot of GOP folks aren't entirely comfortable with.

It looks like both ends of the political spectrum are coming to the same conclusion.. we need change.. and Change is what's selling in this election.

[Burgold]

FEEL THE BERN !!

One thing that I think could backfire in Bernie's favor is the fact that the right has been screaming that Obama was a terrible, vile socialist and that all his programs were evil socialism.

 

In some ways, that may have inoculated the country against the term. After all, according to FOX News, Rush, and the many members of the GOP we already elected a socialist. If the voter looks around and thinks, "Not so bad" they will be less repulsed by voting for another.

 

The difference being that Bernie is an "actual" socialist vs. an "Obama" socialist.

[Kilmer17]

You can add about 80 percent of O'Malleys vote to Sanders' in Iowa.  Most of the precincts there require people caucusing for a candidate who gets under 15 percent in that precinct to realign with a candidate who is over 15 percent.  It's not scientific, but Im betting very few OMalley voters will walk over to the Hillary crowd.

If Sanders wins Iowa by a sizeable margin, Clinton camp would go into panic mode.  I wonder if they can leak that Sanders was possibly born in Canada?

[JMS]

The difference being that Bernie is an "actual" socialist vs. an "Obama" socialist.

Someone Says Socialism and Americans hear Communist. Socialism is actually the moderate left leaning political silo a synonym of liberal, as conservative is the moderate right leaning political silo.. The problem is we haven't had a real liberal since Truman in the Presidency; and Bernie is an actual Liberal.

American choices for the Presidency in the last few decades have been between moderates and conservatives, or conservatives and more conservatives.

Bernie would definitely be a change folks would notice.

You can add about 80 percent of O'Malleys vote to Sanders' in Iowa.  Most of the precincts there require people caucusing for a candidate who gets under 15 percent in that precinct to realign with a candidate who is over 15 percent.  It's not scientific, but Im betting very few OMalley voters will walk over to the Hillary crowd.

If Sanders wins Iowa by a sizeable margin, Clinton camp would go into panic mode.  I wonder if they can leak that Sanders was possibly born in Canada?

That's good information Kilmer, I didn't realize that. So Bernie might have Iowa in the bag.. I think he's got NH in the bag already.

[Burgold]

I always think of socialism as an economic philosophy which puts it in an entirely different category than liberal and conservative which are political philosophies.

[88Comrade2000]

There's going to be tremendous pressure on Ryan not to compromise. Remember, Boehner eventually became hated in Republican circles for compromising too much. There are already whispers that nearly unseated him before he was selected that he was not a pure enough Republican.

 

For nearly 8 years, compromise has been a four letter word to the GOP... and I believe that has more to do with their philosophy than their educational policy.

Ryan is going to be primaried, he may not survive.

[The Evil Genius]

...and I wonder how much we will hear that Iowa doesn't matter should Hillary win. 

[88Comrade2000]

You can add about 80 percent of O'Malleys vote to Sanders' in Iowa.  Most of the precincts there require people caucusing for a candidate who gets under 15 percent in that precinct to realign with a candidate who is over 15 percent.  It's not scientific, but Im betting very few OMalley voters will walk over to the Hillary crowd.

If Sanders wins Iowa by a sizeable margin, Clinton camp would go into panic mode.  I wonder if they can leak that Sanders was possibly born in Canada?

Hillary can rebound when they move away from lily white IA and NH.  Hillary can go into full blown panic if Bernie wins Nevada and South Carolina.  Hispanic and Blacks are factors in NV,SC respectively.  If that happens, I think Joe Biden gets into the race. It would go to the convention but Joe would get the nod there, over Bernie.

[@DCGoldPants]

Didn't Santorum win Iowa in 2012?

[visionary]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-sanders-idUSKCN0UQ2EW20160112

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders supports bill to audit Fed

 

U.S. presidential candidate Democrat Bernie Sanders voted on Tuesday in favor of a bill that would require audits of Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions, his campaign said in a statement following the vote.

 

Sanders said he supports the bill because too much of the U.S. central bank's business is conducted in secret.

 

"Requiring the Government Accountability Office to conduct a full and independent audit of the Fed each and every year, would be an important step towards making the Federal Reserve a more democratic institution that is responsive to the needs of ordinary Americans rather than the billionaires on Wall Street," Sanders said in the statement.

[JMS]

...and I wonder how much we will hear that Iowa doesn't matter should Hillary win.

I was going to respond, that I didn't really think Iowa was very important. Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 over Romney, Huckabee didn't win another primary that year, I don't think.. And while Obama won Iowa on the Dem side, John Edwards came in second over Hillary, and overall Hillary had a more competitive race than Edwards did that year..

I think I'm rethinking that. When Obama won Iowa in 2008, he was not the front runner, he was the plucky challenger. I think Iowans were the first to be able to envision Obama as President and I think it did lend a lot of credibility to Obama's campaign that year. I think Bernie is very happy to be winning both Iowa and NH to start the primary season off.

[88Comrade2000]

It's 4 weeks until the NH primary-2/9.  For most of these candidates; they will be dropping out by Feb, 10 or 11.

 

So long Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Jim Gilmore and Martin O'Malley. Those are definite drop outs after NH. Actually, Santorum and Huckabee may drop out after IA- 2/1.

 

Should be dropping out after NH - Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina.

 

Rand Paul should be dropping out also, but I have this feeling; he will be stubborn and stay at least until Super Tues: 3/1.

 

Kasich has to come in the Top 3 in NH; or else he's done.

 

Christie - may become the establishment alternative; if Rubio doesn't place 3rd in IA and 2nd or 3rd NH.

 

Rubio will be severely damaged; if he can't finish at least 3rd.

 

Bush will hang on until Super Tues- 3/1, because of his money. Otherwise; he would be done.

 

 

After NH, the race really should be this:

 

 

Dems: Sanders vs Hillary, with a possible late entry by Biden; should Hillary go 0-4 in February.

 

Repubs: Trump vs Cruz vs Christie/Rubio. I see Bush hanging on until Super Tues: 3/1 but he will be done after that. Rand Paul stubbornly hanging on until 3/1 also.

 

 

Maybe Michael Bloomberg announces and ilyndependent run by end of March?

[JMS]

Didn't Santorum win Iowa in 2012?

Yes he did.. Tied Romney for the win..

Republican Iowa winners

1976: Gerald Ford (45%) and Ronald Reagan (43%)

1980: George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%), and Bob Dole (2%)

1984: Ronald Reagan (unopposed)

1988: Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush (19%), Jack Kemp (11%), and Pete DuPont (7%)

1992: George H. W. Bush (unopposed)

1996: Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%), and Morry Taylor (1%)

2000: George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (31%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%), and Orrin Hatch (1%)

2004: George W. Bush (unopposed)

2008: Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%), and Duncan Hunter (1%)

2012: Rick Santorum (25%), Mitt Romney (25%), Ron Paul (21%), Newt Gingrich (13%), Rick Perry (10%), Michele Bachmann (5%), and Jon Huntsman (0.6%)[14]

Democratic Iowa Winners

 

 

1972 (January 24): "Uncommitted" (36%), Edmund Muskie (36%), George McGovern (23%), Hubert Humphrey (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%), and Henry M. Jackson (1%)[16]

1976 (January 19): "Uncommitted" (37%), Jimmy Carter (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%), and Henry M. Jackson (1%)

1980 (January 21): Jimmy Carter (59%) and Ted Kennedy (31%)

1984 (February 20): Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%), and Jesse Jackson (2%)

1988 (February 8): Dick Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%), and Bruce Babbitt (6%)

1992 (February 10): Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%), and Jerry Brown (2%)

1996 (February 12): Bill Clinton (98%), "Uncommitted" (1%), Ralph Nader (1%)

2000 (January 24): Al Gore (63%) and Bill Bradley (37%)

2004 (January 19): John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Dick Gephardt (11%), and Dennis Kucinich (1%)

2008 (January 3): Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%), Joe Biden (1%)[17]

2012 (January 3): Barack Obama (98%), "Uncommitted" (2%)[12]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#Republicans

[@DCGoldPants]

Interesting with Iowa and GOP vs Dem.

 

-----------------------------

 

as far as auditing. I'd like to audit the House and Senate 1st. Get those clowns in order. Then let whoever is still standing to audit the rest. 

[tshile]

So this is all adding up to - there was a reason Hillary started going the "i'm a progressive" route.

 

I believe it was Kilmer that pointed out - internal numbers must be worrying them?

 

Looks like it...

[Burgold]

So this is all adding up to - there was a reason Hillary started going the "i'm a progressive" route.

 

I believe it was Kilmer that pointed out - internal numbers must be worrying them?

 

Looks like it...

Hillary's always had a likability problem. I don't totally know that I get it, but I remember back when she wrote her proposal for Hillarycare a Yale prof did a blinded study. He took Hillary's plan, the Democratic plan, and the Republican plan and stripped the name off them and gave them to each of his economics classes. With the names gone I the students voted for the plan something like 65% in favor of Hillary's plan, 18% Dem, and 17% Repub. Then he got a different group and put everyone's name on the plans. Hillary's plan only won 6 percent approval.

 

That to me says a lot. It's not about the ideas. It's not even about the party, but there's just something about Mar... Hillary.