***2021-2022 NBA Season Thread***

[Renegade7]

3 hours ago, Destino said:

https://twitter.com/BenAxelrod/status/1045383901949161472

 

edit:  can't seem to get this tweet to embed so excuse the weird format.

 

They'll be taken down before the end of October.

Edited September 28, 2018 by Renegade7

[Dr. Do Itch Big]

On 9/25/2018 at 6:33 AM, StillUnknown said:

Kawhi might be the NBA's Harvin Marrison

 

I could have sworn his name was Marvin Harrison. 

[Mr. Sinister]

Harvin Marrison is his wild eyed split personality

[Renegade7]

 

[Dr. Do Itch Big]

What

[Going Commando]

I've got some preseason hot takes for you guys:

 

Western Conference

 

1 - There is no such thing as good team chemistry in the NBA independent of on court success.  Teams that win have good chemistry because they win.  Teams that lose have bad chemistry because they're not winning.  Winning is what allows teams to get past all of the petty personal bull**** that every NBA team deals with every year.  The collapse of the mighty Spurs has convinced me that this is the case.  All of that amazing chemistry and organizational culture disappeared the moment their foundation came up on retirement and they had to trade their new franchise player after the first season in like 18 or 19 years that they missed the playoffs.  They're going to have to scrap for a low seed this year and there is a decent chance they'll miss the playoffs again.  But ultimately I think they get in as a 7th or 8th seed.  The roster around DeRozan and Aldridge isn't that good though.  They're a little slow and they don't really have anyone in the front court who can play above the rim.

 

2 - There are bubbling chemistry issues in that Golden State locker room.  And Kevin Durant's contract situation and Draymond Green's on court decline are at the center of it.  They are still a 100% lock to win the championship this season unless Curry or Durant get seriously hurt.  But I think that Draymond Green is is not long for that team and I could even see Durant leaving in the offseason, which would end their reign as an unbeatable juggernaut and make them merely the dominant team.  I can see Cousins and Green clashing and Cousins eventually replacing Green.  Big upgrade in talent but big downgrade in competitiveness and defensive performance.

 

3 - A Golden State team built around Curry, Thompson, and a healthy Cousins actually looks pretty great on paper, but it will necessitate some pretty major stylistic changes and they will eventually start running their offense through Cousins and Curry will begin to look human outside of that system that was tailor made for him and allowed him to be so great.

 

4 - Utah could end up being the two seed this year if Gobert and Mitchell stay healthy.  They look really well balanced and strong from 1-10. 

 

5 - Houston will still be great and a threat in the postseason, but they're going to take a step back.  CP3 has quietly begun his decline.

 

6 - The Thunder are probably going to be really good.  Two or three seed most likely, and the most serious challenge to Golden State.

 

7 - Portland is a really nice midseed caliber team.  The poor man's Golden State.  They're going to be a scary series for the top Western teams.

 

8 - New Orleans isn't as good as people think.  They hit on a weirdly positive chemical mix last year and Jrue Holiday had a major outlier season.  But they'll still be a mid to low seed because Anthony Davis is exactly as good as people think.  He'll be the best player in the league and the MVP front runner but he won't win it because his team won't win enough games to beat out other guys.  The game has slowed down for him and he's now the dominant player in the league.

 

9 - The Lakers will make the playoffs because LeBron James doesn't miss the playoffs but they're going to be irrelevant.  This is the first season where LeBron will miss a bunch of games.  He's going to be taking time off and the Lakers won't be able to tell him no or have him get with the program.  He's not going to be in the MVP discussion this year.

 

10 - Denver looks really good.  Like top four seed good.  But I need to see it with consistency in the regular season before I totally buy in on them.  I don't trust their defense yet nor am I super impressed with their top end talent.  They've got a Memphisy feel of being a team of a lot of really good players but no true transcendent guys.  Maybe Murray has a break out year though.

 

11 - Minnesota is a mess right now and the Jimmy Butler thing is going to drag them down until they can move on.  I don't know what to make of them until I can see what they get in return for Butler.  But I do think people are sleeping on Karl Anthony Towns in the way that they fell asleep on Davis last year.  He's going to have a break out season if he stays healthy, IMO.

 

12 - I think Dallas will be surprisingly competitive and Donkic will win ROTY.  They're going to seriously challenge for the 7th or 8th seed.

 

13 - Phoenix is going to be a mess again.  That roster doesn't make sense and it definitely isn't good enough to snatch a playoff spot away from a healthy San Antonio or Minnesota or New Orleans.

 

14 - The Clippers are headed for a total rebuild but Doc Rivers will get them playing good enough defense to avoid bottoming out and finishing last.

 

15 - Memphis is lousy and it will be between them and Sacramento for the 14th and 15th places in the conference.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

1. Why has no one commented on the fact that Anthony Davis is now a Rich Paul/Klutch Sports client?

 

Lebron is diabolical, man.

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

1. Why has no one commented on the fact that Anthony Davis is now a Rich Paul/Klutch Sports client?

 

Lebron is diabolical, man.

 

Because he's under contract for two more years after this one.

 

New Orleans has the ability to sign him to a DPVE too.  It's a significant carrot.  It didn't work for San Antonio with Kawhi or Cleveland with Kyrie.  But they're crazy people.  Also I'm not sure either were offered DPVE deals.  And Kawhi was "injured."  You can be absolutely certain New Orleans will offer Davis a DPVE.  If he turns it down, then maybe we can start the Lakers speculation.

[Dont Taze Me Bro]

If KD leaves GS after this season, is he Laker bound?  Personally, I don't think he will leave GS, but there won't be any discounts with his next contract.  I did read an article in Forbes saying that GS should still be able to turn a good profit in 2019 and after, even with a 300 million dollar payroll.  

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmurray/2018/09/17/can-the-golden-state-warriors-afford-a-300m-payroll/#695f335124fd

 

Which is crazy.  Lets say he stays and they just have a core of Curry, KD and Klay and loose Green and Boogie.  Are they still favorites to win it all?  Or does that hinge on who the Lakers can bring in to play alongside LeBron?

[Going Commando]

Eastern Conference Hot Takes 2018:

 

1 - Boston and Toronto will push each other for the top seed in the way that Houston and Golden State did last year and they'll each win 60 games and we're going to be hearing all kinds of stories about how they'll challenge Golden State in the Finals and then which ever one makes it will lose in five games.

 

2 - I'm expecting Kawhi to be great in Toronto.  I think he was faking the severity of his injury last year and that he's healthy now.  And Toronto seems like his kind of place.  Cosmopolitan.  Try hard culture.  Very hungry to prove themselves.  Fan base that provides rabid homer support.  And he fits in so well with their style of play.  I'm a little worried about the culture after they fired Casey and traded away a beloved teammate, and Ujiri is definitely a huge asshole.  But I think things might work out for them, and with LeBron James in the West, it feels like their road block has been lifted.  I think they might finish behind Boston because there will be an adjustment period for them, but they could end up being the best team in the East, for what that's worth.  And then I think it will be a short run and this will blow up in their faces soon.  They don't have long term stability.

 

3 - I think Boston is going to look a little shakier than people expect, early on.  They're going to face a low key adjustment period too because the expectations surrounding the team have changed, there will be some young guy entitlement that will anger the older vets, and they're going to have to bench someone who won't be happy.  Benching Tatum for Hayward feels impossible.  He's a far bigger talent and he might already be a better player.  He's clearly the future of that team.  So does that mean you bench Brown?  He was arguably their best player in the postseason.  He's their best perimeter defender outside Smart.  So then what, bench Hayward?  He makes too much money.  Plus you've got to find playing time for Rozier.  It's going to be a juggling act and it's going to take time for them to find their right rotations and for people to grow into their roles and be happy.  Winning is the key.  If they get off to a good start, then it should help keep people happy.  But it won't work forever.  Guys like Brown and Rozier and Tatum are eventually going to want to get paid, and they're not going to accept bench roles for much longer.  Kyrie is going to opt out next summer, are they going to be able to keep him?  What if Horford opts in?  Next summer is going to be big for them.  They're going to have to shake out which young guys they want to keep and which older, more expensive guys they need to dump.  They'll be good this year though.   The favorite to win the East.

 

4 - I think Philly is being overrated this year.  They're loaded with talent, but that talent is too young to truly contend.  They still need to learn how to play winning basketball and they can't short cut that process.  They'll still finish in the top four unless Embiid or Simmons gets hurt.  But they'll lose in the postseason to Boston or Toronto.  Then next summer a lot of their role player contracts are up and they're not going to have as much cap space to fill in those holes with quality vets again.  They need Markelle Fultz to get good and carry his weight once guys like Chandler and Reddick leave.

 

5 - The Bucks are not that good.  Lot of JAGs in that front court around Giannis and the guard rotation is just OK.  Should be an interesting team with Budenholzer coaching.  Giannis is transcendent and I think he might finally have the stamina to make it through an MVP caliber season without having a second half fade.  But their team-wide shooting is suspect.  And I think they how far they go depends on how well they defend.  Still, they could get a three or four seed in an Eastern conference that is still weak.

 

6 - Indy feels mediocre.  They're a nice team but they scare no one.

 

7 - I don't know what to make of Miami.  I need to see if they pull off the Butler trade and what they have to give up for him before I can get a read on them.  Without Butler, they have a 44 win ceiling.

 

8 - For whatever reason, it's just not working out for Detroit.  A team that has Drummond and Griffin should be way better than they are.  I guess their guard play is just that bad.  I need to see it with them before I believe it now. 

 

9 - Time for Charlotte to rebuild.  In earnest.

 

10 - On paper, New York should be terrible without Kristaps.  But if he is ahead of schedule in his recovery and comes back soon, then they could be that shockingly good team that no one saw coming.  Still, that seems really unlikely.  You worry about a 7'3 player recovering from a leg injury.

 

11 - The Magic should have tanked better when they had the chance.  That roster has too much talent to bottom out, but no real transcendent guy to build around for the future.  They're feeling like the Utah of the East.  Utah is good now, but it took getting lucky late in the draft to get Mitchell.  And it took them a really long time to build what they currently have.  They might get a low seed this year though.

 

12 - The Bulls are going to suck but they have some really nice young pieces and they won't be terrible forever.  But they still need to such for at least one more year and try to snag that one transcendent perimeter guy to pair with Markkanen and Carter.  It's not Kris Dunn or Zach Levine and I'm pretty sure it's not Jabari "I don't get paid to play defense" Parker either.

 

13 - The Nets suck and they will be terrible forever.  They were run like a Ponzi scheme to get an Arena financed and this is the consequence.  They have nice role players in guys like Jarrett Allen and Rondae Hollis Jefferson and some nice older, more expensive role players like Ed Davis, Kenneth Faried, and Demarre Carroll.  But they have absolutely zero foundation talent to build around.  They are going to play junk yard dog defense.  But they are going to score 85 points a game and hit their win ceiling in the low 30s.  And they will be stuck in this rut for years, even if they get a transcendent guy the next time they actually have a decent draft pick.

 

14 - The Hawks are in a total rebuild and are not interesting yet.  I think Trae Young can be a really good player.  But I think trading Donkic for him was a disaster that will haunt that franchise forever.  It won't really matter if Young gets really good if Donkic ends up being as good as I think he can be.  And I don't like the idea of Atlanta always trying to copy the formula of far better franchises from the West with far lesser players.  First it was the Spurs, now they're trying to reproduce the Splash Brothers with Trae Young and Kevin Huerter?  ?

[StillUnknown]

40 minutes ago, Dont Taze Me Bro said:

If KD leaves GS after this season, is he Laker bound?  Personally, I don't think he will leave GS, but there won't be any discounts with his next contract.  I did read an article in Forbes saying that GS should still be able to turn a good profit in 2019 and after, even with a 300 million dollar payroll.  

 

most nba insiders I follow on twitter been dropping hints for a while about him going to NY

[Warhead36]

I'm not sure Durant will leave, but I do think Thompson will max out and play next to Lebron in LA. Will make a great WCF in 2020 between the Lakers and Warriors.

[Going Commando]

1 minute ago, StillUnknown said:

most nba insiders I follow on twitter been dropping hints for a while about him going to NY 

 

They were talking about this on Monday on my local sports radio show.  Draymond Green has also been cryptically talking about them having locker room chemistry problems.

 

I wonder if they're having Toni Braxton problems?

 

Or maybe they're just getting burned out.

 

I think that DeMarcus Cousins signing is going to shake them up way more than people expected when it initially happened.  I read Cousins's piece in the player's tribune and he talked about how eagerly everyone on the team embraced him.  I think that's because their team dynamic was getting testy and they were all desperate for some new blood to come in and shake thinks up.

 

Cousins said that Curry was the one who was particularly welcoming to him.  Curry is going to be a Golden State lifer.  I think that Curry is looking at life in Golden State post-Durant and having a talent like Cousins come calling them about joining the team was a bolt of luck falling from the heavens.

 

Would it really surprise any of us to find out that Curry and Durant don't really like playing with each other?  That this has been a marriage of convenience?

 

Would it really surprise any of us to find out that Curry doesn't really like Draymond and won't be sorry to see him go?

 

I think we might be headed for a Golden State team that's Curry + Thompson + Cousins.  And that doesn't actually sound that bad unless Cousins never comes close to being the player he was pre-injury.

[Warhead36]

I doubt there are any chemistry issues in GS. Green might decline some but in that system he'll still be fine, I mean we're still talking about the 4th best(maybe 5th best with Cousins)player on a monster team.

 

GS will be Curry/Durant and they'll continue to contend but won't be superteam status.

[Dr. Do Itch Big]

KD is more likely to leave than Klay. Also, why do you think Lebrun will miss games? Ineuroses?

[Mr. Sinister]

Let's be honest, even in a normal dynasty, things get old between teammates/coaches.

 

Durant is a very sensitive cat.  Though I doubt there is anything substantive, it wouldn't shock me at all if there is so.e stuff there.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Because he's under contract for two more years after this one.

 

New Orleans has the ability to sign him to a DPVE too.  It's a significant carrot.  It didn't work for San Antonio with Kawhi or Cleveland with Kyrie.  But they're crazy people.  Also I'm not sure either were offered DPVE deals.  And Kawhi was "injured."  You can be absolutely certain New Orleans will offer Davis a DPVE.  If he turns it down, then maybe we can start the Lakers speculation.

 

He'll be a Laker by November of next year at the absolute latest.

 

This is the NBA. Players go where they want to go when they want to go.

[ixcuincle]

Boston and GS are miles above the competition in their respective conferences. Both will likely make the NBA Finals barring a real shocker. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Another year of Steve trying to find the holes in Boston's roster. I'm excited.

 

As for the Warriors, Draymond has to break down eventually. He has the hardest job in basketball, and he's a crazy person.

 

However, I just don't see any signs that Durant is unhappy and wants to leave. The guy seems obsessed with his legacy. He and Curry together for the next half decade probably means at a minimum two more titles. I don't see him abandoning that to play Robin to Lebron's Batman, because Lebron is ALWAYS going to be Batman.

 

To me, the worst case scenario for GSW is a Durant-Curry combo for five years, which would be a dream team construction for basically any team in NBA history.

[Bozo the kKklown]

On 9/28/2018 at 12:16 AM, Dr. Do Itch Big said:

I could have sworn his name was [redacted]. 

I don't know who you are talking about.

[TradeTheBeal!]

Rockets will win it all.

 

*ducks*

[Going Commando]

37 minutes ago, Dr. Do Itch Big said:

KD is more likely to leave than Klay. Also, why do you think Lebrun will miss games? Ineuroses?

 

Why bust his ass in January and February for that team?  Why keep playing 3,000 minutes a year for them?  He picked the Lakers to have fun.  He's not worried about playoff runs any more.  And the Lakers are just happy to be along for the ride with him.  If LeBron says I'm 20 games off and I won't play more than 2,000 minutes this season, LA will respond by saying "Thank You Sir."

28 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

He'll be a Laker by November of next year at the absolute latest.

 

This is the NBA. Players go where they want to go when they want to go.

 

He's going to sign a DPVE next summer.  And people will whine about him throwing his career away and not entertaining them in the offseason by joining the Lakers.

[Going Commando]

19 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

However, I just don't see any signs that Durant is unhappy and wants to leave. The guy seems obsessed with his legacy. He and Curry together for the next half decade probably means at a minimum two more titles. I don't see him abandoning that to play Robin to Lebron's Batman, because Lebron is ALWAYS going to be Batman.

 

Green already started breaking down last year.  By the end of this year, GS will have subtly shifted away from him and toward Cousins.

 

Green will be playing 20 minutes a night by next season and then sign a max deal for some hellhole like Brooklyn in 2020.

 

Durant will ride the Golden State train to a threepeat, but that team is not his and never will be.  I can definitely see him looking to the East to find some team in a big market that he can take over, and one who has a promising young start to do the heavy lifting for him.  The Knicks are the obvious choice.  Basketball Mecca.  Kristaps.  The chance to run a really awesome system.  The chance to completely take over a franchise and become the newsiest player in the NBA.  I agree he'll never join LeBron in LA.

[Going Commando]

16 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Rockets will win it all.

 

*ducks*

 

I think they win it in 2019-2020 if Durant leaves Golden State.  They've got a long term future secured with Paul, Harden, and Capela all on long term deals.

 

But that CP3 contract makes me nervous.  He showed signs of decline last season and he's got an unbelievable amount of money headed his way.  That Brandon Knight deal is pretty painful to look at too.  And I don't love the fact that they don't have any rotation quality forwards under the age of 33 aside from Marquese Chriss.  Their solution to missing 59 threes in a game seven was apparently to get less reliable three point shooters at the forward spots.  They're going to continue launching a jillion threes and dying by the sword this year.  And it won't be easy to get good three and D wings outside the draft next summer because of their cap situation.

[PeterMP]

Let's see:

 

1.  Culture does matter and does exist, but there is only so much coaches/management can do to establish it.  Mostly it comes from players and coaches/management only have so much influence on the players.  From there, if you have a great talent that doesn't completely buy in, there isn't much you can do.  If at the end of the 2017 season if the Spurs realized they had an issue with Leonard in terms culture/buying in, there is no way that Spurs could have traded Leonard for an equally talented player unless another team is also having issues with their star player.  So unless you taking back a player another team has some issue with, you are almost certainly taking back a less talented player.  Your other option is to trade for draft picks, which comes with other risks.

 

2.  The four best teams in the west are still OKC, Houston, Utah, and GS not necessarily in that particular order.

 

3.  I said last year that Paul had started to slip. He clearly doesn't play D the way he used to.

 

4.  There are a bunch of teams in the west that could win a lot of games.  With that, assuming equal health of the rest of the West, I don't see the Lakers making the playoffs unless Lebron plays a bunch.  Him sitting a lot is not compatible with them making the playoffs.

 

5.  What happens in MN is completely up to Wiggins and Towns and can they figure it out, especially on defense.

 

6.  With that, coaches coaching defense is over rated (Tom Thibodeau in Chicago vs. now and Brad Stevens in Boston).  Coaching defense is pretty easy if you have players that have skills (mental and physical) that allow them to play good defense and they work at it.

 

7.  I think a lot of people are over rating Donkic.

 

8.  NY is bad,  Kristapas is not a franchise player.  They should trade him and start over.

 

9.  Milwaukee can become a lot better if they can play defense up to what you'd expect based on their physical talent/length.  Kidd had them employing some crazy schemes.  If the problem was Kidd's schemes, they could be be a contender for the ECF title.  If it is the players and Kidd has them doing what he did because they'd be worse if they played normal defense, then they are what they are and won't really get better.

 

10.  Sixers bench/role players should be fine into the future.  They've got young guys and picks that should be able to fill those gaps.  They are still limited based on in a close game, when the game slows down, how are they going to score points.  To take the next step between Embiid, Simmons, and Fultz, they need to be able to get some consistent offense in those situations.  If one of them can step up and be the man in that situation, they can easily win a title.  Based on where those 3 appear to be, I don't think it is this year.  But they could still easily make the ECF finals, and it is completely reasonable for them to be at least a 3 seed assuming they are healthy.

 

11.  Lots of people said the Griffin trade was a bad trade when Detroit made it.  It was very clear that Griffin's athleticism was slipping.  Drummond just isn't a very good player given the current rules/style of play.

 

12.  I've got no faith in anybody else in the East outside of Boston and Philly to be really good.  Milwaukee is probably at least close to what they were last year, but teams like Washington, Toronto, Miami, Indiana, etc. could all be better, but they also could be worse (I also don't think Butler is that much of an improvement for Miami.  I don't think he was as ever as good as some people thought, I think his game has slipped, and I don't think he really fits in that well in Miami).

51 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Green already started breaking down last year.  By the end of this year, GS will have subtly shifted away from him and toward Cousins.

 

Green will be playing 20 minutes a night by next season and then sign a max deal for some hellhole like Brooklyn in 2020.

 

Durant will ride the Golden State train to a threepeat, but that team is not his and never will be.  I can definitely see him looking to the East to find some team in a big market that he can take over, and one who has a promising young start to do the heavy lifting for him.  The Knicks are the obvious choice.  Basketball Mecca.  Kristaps.  The chance to run a really awesome system.  The chance to completely take over a franchise and become the newsiest player in the NBA.  I agree he'll never join LeBron in LA.

 

Green is slipping, a lot and quickly.  I don't think Durant ever comes to the Boston, NY, Washington, or Philly.  He doesn't seem to that kind of person.

 

Houston needs to alter their offense some.  Run more pick and rolls closer to the basket, give Capella more chances directly at the rim, and let their shooters take a step in.

Edited October 4, 2018 by PeterMP