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***2021-2022 NBA Season Thread***


RonArtest15

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He'll be traded again by December in a last ditch effort to save that team

 

Or Doc will order up an exorcism and Crazy Lance becomes a valuable member of the club, playing like he did before whatever the supernatural force was that destroyed Indiana's locker room in 2014.

 

Lets face it.... crazier things have happened.

Edited by Mr. Sinister
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I'm going to play Devil's Advocate too and ponder how the move could work for LA.  Stephenson is unpredictable and destabilizing, but he was a valuable role player in Indy before they fell apart.  Maybe he can thrive on a good team with a strong coach and established leadership in the locker room.  Or maybe he gets in a fight with a teammate by December and is being shopped by January.

 

I haven't looked at the payroll situation for LA yet, does anyone know off the top of their heads how this move effects LA's ability to keep DeAndre Jordan?

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If Embiid is out for the year, does that change their draft strategy? 

 

The Porzingis hype train is picking up steam, and I wouldn't be completely surprised to see him go as high as #2.  If that happens and either KAT or Okafor is sitting there at #3, do the 76ers bite, or do they fill a major need by drafting a PG like Russell or Mudiay? 

 

You have to go BPA, regardless of position.  You absolutely can not count on Embiid as the franchise building block for you.  He might not play an NBA minute until his third season.  Plus there have been all kinds of negative reports about him skipping work outs and being unreliable.  This is a terrible start to his career.

 

This feels like a four franchise player class.  Maybe five, depending on how people feel about Porzingis.  Philly just needs to get one of them and give the keys to the franchise to him moving forward.  If it's Okafor, so be it.  If it's Mudiay or Russell, then that's good too, and maybe Embiid still gets salvaged down the road.  Regardless, it's past time to abandon any thought of Embiid being the cornerstone of the rebuild.

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I doubt it.  I doubted they ever planned on drafting as if Embiid was going to be a reliable NBA player.  Heck, I doubt even after a full season without serious issues, they are planning on Noel being a reliable NBA player.

 

I suspect, they'll pick what they feel is going to be the player with the most potential up side, and I suspect that's what they'll do now.

 

If you end up with somebody that plays the same position as Embiid/Noel and they are all healthy, then you worry about the consequences later.

 

steve, I think you underestimate the support that they have from their local fan base and in the local media.  Everybody knew that Embiid was a gamble.

 

They've had Embiid in the room interviewing prospects, thinking about which ones he wants to be his teammate.  Noel was an upside flier that fell into their laps on draft day in their initial talent dump.  But they are absolutely treating Embiid like he's the cornerstone of the rebuild.  That's what most of the other executives around the league believe.

 

I think you are overestimating the patience of both ownership and the fan base.  They may still be on board with losing now, but what about by 2018 or 2019?  This is Hinkie's third draft, the third since the rebuild began.  And they are still at square one.  Unless you already have a strong veteran laden rotation in place, (which Philly does not), it takes years to become truly competitive again after you do get your franchise cornerstone player in the draft.  It took the Wizards four years to see the return on investment from drafting Wall, and there was complete roster turnover just two seasons after he was picked.  Even if Philly gets their Wall in this draft, then you're still talking about, realistically, three or four more losing seasons before they turn it around.  There is not a front office in the league that could survive something like seven straight lottery seasons, and that's assuming they get lucky and hit a home run with this draft pick.

 

They have to produce a quick turnaround.  Either Embiid has to work out or they have to get a day one stud with this draft pick and immediately start nailing trades to surround the kid with a quality, veteran-laden supporting cast.  That is the only way Hinkie and Brown keep their jobs long enough to see any kind of return to competitiveness with his rebuild.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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His size and strength, and his ability to move around like a guard at that size, are a huge part of his game. He's an extremely rare athlete. I agree that it's not all about his size, the guy is a basketball genius, but without that size he's not the same player.

Also, he's not the leagues beat point guard when he wants to be. That's just ridiculous.

And more importantly his peerless team destroying personality.

 

It's not that ridiculous. Chris Paul is great but LeBron is as good of a passer and is asked to score more than Paul is. If he focused more on passing he could probably lead the league in assists.

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I'm going to play Devil's Advocate too and ponder how the move could work for LA.  Stephenson is unpredictable and destabilizing, but he was a valuable role player in Indy before they fell apart.  Maybe he can thrive on a good team with a strong coach and established leadership in the locker room.  Or maybe he gets in a fight with a teammate by December and is being shopped by January.

 

I haven't looked at the payroll situation for LA yet, does anyone know off the top of their heads how this move effects LA's ability to keep DeAndre Jordan?

 

I don't think they saved money but they have more flexibility. Lance has a team option for 2016 whereas Hawes had 3 more years guaranteed.

 

I think it's basically a wash for 2015 in terms of numbers, but gives them about $9 million more in 2016 if they waive Lance.

 

Lance is simultaneously overpaid and underpaid. If he does what he did last year, you need to waive him. If he reaches even 85 percent of his potential, he's the biggest bargain in the league.

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So have we talked about what the Clippers did? Because we need to talk about how one of the NBAs easier teams to hate, added Lance Stevenson.

 

Yeah, but they got rid of Matt Barnes.   Trading Hitler for Stalin doesn't move the needle that much.  

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Yeah, but they got rid of Matt Barnes.   Trading Hitler for Stalin doesn't move the needle that much.  

 

True and in addition, it could be argued that they traded a guy that irritated the opposing team for a guy that is sure to irritate his own. 

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True and in addition, it could be argued that they traded a guy that irritated the opposing team for a guy that is sure to irritate his own. 

 

On the other hand, Stephenson has a LOT more talent than Barnes.  Barnes never could score and he isn't even an average defender anymore.    

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I don't think they saved money but they have more flexibility. Lance has a team option for 2016 whereas Hawes had 3 more years guaranteed.

 

I think it's basically a wash for 2015 in terms of numbers, but gives them about $9 million more in 2016 if they waive Lance.

 

Lance is simultaneously overpaid and underpaid. If he does what he did last year, you need to waive him. If he reaches even 85 percent of his potential, he's the biggest bargain in the league.

 

In that case, it's a good gamble.  Having that team option is nice.  And since Hawes wasn't part of the rotation, his contract was dead weight to them.

 

The Clippers have zero cap space this summer.  They'll use Bird Rights to extend Jordan.  That deal is going to be very interesting BTW.  A quality, but flawed, 7 footer coming off an All NBA selection.  Looking for max money, but a FA the summer before the first cap jump.  I want to see if he negotiates a short term deal with an early out.  An ETO or player option that could let him be a FA again either next summer or the one after.  Best situation for the Clippers would be to sign him for something like 14 million dollars and four or five years.  But I think he has enough leverage this summer to turn that down.  He should get some max offers.

 

Anyway, back to Stephenson: it's a good one year flier.  The only way they could improve their rotation was to use the MLE, the BAE, and make trades.  Stephenson is absolutely an upgrade over Barnes and Hawes when his head is on right and I can see him becoming a key part of their rotation for next season.  And this way, they don't have to use the MLE to sign Paul Pierce to find a good wing.  They can save that tool to find a back up big--someone of Zaza Pachulia's caliber perhaps?  And then use their BAE to sign a swing forward or back up PG.  That would give them a full 8 man rotation that doesn't have to include Austin Rivers.

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On the other hand, Stephenson has a LOT more talent than Barnes.  Barnes never could score and he isn't even an average defender anymore.    

 

Yeah this is a clear upgrade if Stephenson plays the way he did for Indy.  He needs to find his three ball again to be really useful, but he's a destructive defensive player that can rebound and be a secondary and tertiary ball handler.  It's a high quality role player acquired with a bad contract and an aging player that they might be able to sign once again after he gets cut.  The only real risk is the intangible risk Stephenson can have on a locker room.  The Clippers needed to add at least two or three legitimately good role players to their rotation to keep up with Memphis and San Antonio and Golden State and Houston.  But the challenge was that they'd only have the MLE and BAE as pretty modest tools in free agency.  They needed to make a trade like this.  Probably could do with another trade too in order to bring in a back up PG that's actually good.

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They've had Embiid in the room interviewing prospects, thinking about which ones he wants to be his teammate.  Noel was an upside flier that fell into their laps on draft day in their initial talent dump.  But they are absolutely treating Embiid like he's the cornerstone of the rebuild.  That's what most of the other executives around the league believe.

 

I think you are overestimating the patience of both ownership and the fan base.  They may still be on board with losing now, but what about by 2018 or 2019?  This is Hinkie's third draft, the third since the rebuild began.  And they are still at square one.  Unless you already have a strong veteran laden rotation in place, (which Philly does not), it takes years to become truly competitive again after you do get your franchise cornerstone player in the draft.  It took the Wizards four years to see the return on investment from drafting Wall, and there was complete roster turnover just two seasons after he was picked.  Even if Philly gets their Wall in this draft, then you're still talking about, realistically, three or four more losing seasons before they turn it around.  There is not a front office in the league that could survive something like seven straight lottery seasons, and that's assuming they get lucky and hit a home run with this draft pick.

 

They have to produce a quick turnaround.  Either Embiid has to work out or they have to get a day one stud with this draft pick and immediately start nailing trades to surround the kid with a quality, veteran-laden supporting cast.  That is the only way Hinkie and Brown keep their jobs long enough to see any kind of return to competitiveness with his rebuild.

 

The Wizards had to turn the roster over because they didn't have guys in place that could play into the future as Wall matured or guys that were going to bring you back much value.

 

The Wizards essentially were bad without assets that had much value.

 

The year before Wall joined the Wizards, the top 4 players by wins shares were 30 year old Heyward, 29 year old Mike Miller, 33 year old Jamison, and 23 year old Blatche.

 

All but Blatche were clearly at or past their peak meaning they had little value going forward.

 

The Sixers look like:

Noel 20, Covington 24, Thomspon 23, Sims 24.

 

And the difference isn't just the top 4.  It is all through the roster.  The Wizards were carrying 5 people 30 or over.  The Sixers one.

 

And then they had to wait to pick up a piece like Beal because they didn't have any other ways to get such a piece.

 

The Sixers are sitting on draft picks, including 3 first rounders from other teams.

 

There is no comparison between the Sixers rebuild and the Wizards.

 

Drawing conclusions on the Sixers future based on the Wizards is badly flawed.

 

Realistically, there is no comparison because no team has ever done it this way before.

 

The Sixers just have to find a guy to go forward with (which isn't trivial).

Edited by PeterMP
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Four years in the east is a bit of a stretch also. Sixers get a highly productive player this year, something next year with their 80000 picks, bring over their stash in Europe and they are a playoff team faster then you think. That start is a successful rebuild.

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Peter, the Wizards had plenty of young players and draft picks during the initial phase of their rebuild.  They had six first round draft picks in the 2010 and 2011 classes on the roster by the start of the 2011 season: Wall, Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin, Jordan Crawford, Jan Vesely, and Chris Singleton.  Plus Andre Blatche, Nick Young, and JaVale McGee were all core members of the rotation, and each were very young.  The guys that were over thirty were mostly end of the rotation place holders.  One of the significant problems of the roster construction at that point was the team got disastrously young.  Everyone on the court was learning on the job, nobody could shoot, and nobody knew how to play defense.  Basic breakdowns in execution were the nightly norm, and as a result, all of the young players on the roster essentially stopped progressing until most of them got dumped and/or displaced by veterans and the team settled on a core of just three or four young players to develop at once.

 

If you're arguing that Philly's roster is even younger, then that's an argument that it will take them even longer to become competitive.

 

But it is true that the situation between the Wizards and 76ers is significantly different, because the Wizards got lucky and got Wall near the beginning of the process.  If they hadn't, Ernie Grunfeld would have been fired years ago.  Philly's situation is worse and less stable than Washington's because they don't have a cornerstone player to build around yet.

 

The young players you mentioned as assets for Philly will only remain assets for so long.  There was a point when Jordan Crawford and Kevin Seraphin and JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche and Trevor Booker were assets too.  But their value depreciates quickly the more minutes they play for a struggling team.

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Good article by Zach Lowe: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-good-and-bad-of-the-lebron-juggernaut/

 

It's about the craziness of LeBron's usage in the Finals.

 

It's not totally unprecedented though.  It's essentially what OKC was doing in the regular season with Russell Westbrook, except that LeBron is a large step above Westbrook and so it works better.  He sees the floor better and the post game is a major ISO scoring weapon for him.  Give the Cavs enough time to figure out some secondary and tertiary scoring options in these rotations and their offense would eventually work.  But the minutes and usage for LeBron would wear him into the ground over the course of a season.

 

Lowe's paragraph about Cleveland's payroll situation was interesting.  If they use their Bird Rights to keep Love, Thompson, Shumpert, and Dellavedova at market deals and then use Haywood's big contract to bring in another high quality rotation player around that number, then their payroll and tax bill could be over 200 million dollars???  There is not a chance in hell that market can afford that.  Not to mention they'd be so far over the apron that they couldn't afford anything but min contracts.

 

But this team plus a 10 million dollar role player (assuming he earns his money) is a juggernaut next season.  With Chicago imploding, Milwaukee not there yet, Detroit still a lottery team, and an Indy team that is a question mark, and the confidence that comes from Finals experience under their belt...

 

I think they'd win 65 games.  Maybe more.  And I think they'd win the championship.

 

But of course, there is no way they can afford it.  They're going to have to let somebody important go.  Or maybe several somebodies.  I think they are going to have to pick one of either Love or Thompson, and one of either Shumpert or Delly.  And I think they'll have to find a way to get rid of Varejao.

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Haven't really read the details about Lance going to the Clippers, does it effect their ability to pursue Pierce?

Not specifically. They were going to have to use the MLE to sign him before too. Now it doesn't make a ton of sense to use their MLE on him though. They need a back up big that can play C. That's their only good tool to get one. They could still use another quality shooting wing, but I think you designate a cheaper contract for that. A Rasual Butler or James Jones.

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