'Skins Defense being overlooked in matchup against Seahawks?

[NoCalMike]

It seems one big aspect of this matchup the media is simply ignoring is how our defense matches up with Seattle's offense. All the talk has been that RGIII is not 100% and Seattle's defense will shut down Morris: Game Over.

I am not sure however, why these same folks don't see our defense having a good day against Wilson and the 'Hawks offense. Our defense has been pretty good at stopping the run for the most part, and if they contain Lynch, that leaves a rookie QB on the road with the task of being the difference between a win and a loss.

If Wilson is not simply allowed to "manage the game" the way he has been able to most of the season, can he get the job done having to throw the ball? What if the Seahawks are trailing late in the game and can't rely on the run game?

The 'Skins defense, while statistically hasn't been great, is still really good at keeping TDs off the scoreboard. Bend don't break, cause turnovers. I saw on Friday a "bold prediction" on ESPN that RGIII would be picked off by both Seattle corners, but there has been little, if any talk, about why Wilson's passing game should scare anyone?

Lets assume both defense stop the run or at least contain/manage not to get slaughtered by the run game. I trust RGIII against any defense over Russell Wilson as far as having to put the team on their shoulders to win the game.

[Truant]

Wilson has had his array of plays expanded as the season went on. They looked at what we were doing and added the option with some serious success. Plus Wilson has been amazing against the blitz (and overall) over the second half of the season.

We played against Cam, but other than that we haven't really faced a mobile QB like Wilson. I know we see RGIII in practice every day, but Seattle probably has some (hopefully over-) confidence having stopped some mobile QBs already this year.

We've been playing bend but not break and relying on forcing turnovers. I hope that we can make them one dimensional but I hope that we can make the plays necessary if they do air it out.

[emor09]

None of their WR's can hold Dez Bryant's jock. We totally shut him down last week.

Tate, Rice and Baldwin don't scare me at all. I'm most worried about Wilson improvising outside of the pocket and making something happen with his legs. Kerrigan and Jackson need to be disciplined and contain their ends when they try to get after the QB.

[posse87]

Another point is that the 3-4 defense is better suited to stop the zone read option offense, as the steelers did against us earlier this season. I don't think Wilson has faced many 3-4 defenses, and not in the games they have blown teams out in. I think this is a point lost in the media and analysts.

[Mr. Sinister]

Another point is that the 3-4 defense is better suited to stop the zone read option offense, as the steelers did against us earlier this season. I don't think Wilson has faced many 3-4 defenses, and not in the games they have blown teams out in. I think this is a point lost in the media and analysts.

San Fran runs a 3-4.

[SWFLSkins]

Has the media been right about the Redskins this year overall? Hit and miss, our Defense is peaking and is not going to get the respect until they continue to produce. I like our chances.

[afkidd]

San Fran runs a 3-4.

so does arizona, i think.

[JMUSkins]

We have been disrespected all week leading up to this game. Our defense is vastly improved from the way they were playing early in the season... and our second half adjustments have been outrageously good. Keep underestimating this team... I love it.

[Toe Jam]

I keep hearing from ignoramuses that the only reason we won the Cowboys game is because Romo sits to pee choked and threw three picks.

Okay, yeah.. but why the hell do you think he threw the picks in the first place? Our D played a brilliant game and kept him on edge from beginning to end. He didn't throw those picks for the hell of it.

If they play with the same intensity tomorrow, we've got a good shot.

[JMUSkins]

I keep hearing from ignoramuses that the only reason we won the Cowboys game is because Romo sits to pee choked and threw three picks.

Okay, yeah.. but why the hell do you think he threw the picks in the first place? Our D played a brilliant game and kept him on edge from beginning to end. He didn't throw those picks for the hell of it.

If they play with the same intensity tomorrow, we've got a good shot.

The media is all over the Seahags' jock because they scored a bunch of points. It's lazy to go with the flashy team because of what they did to (for example) the Bills. They didn't do their homework on how much better our D has been recently. Haslett has been doing a damn good job.

[Toe Jam]

The media is all over the Seahags' jock because they scored a bunch of points. It's lazy to go with the flashy team because of what they did to (for example) the Bills. They didn't do their homework on how much better our D has been recently. Haslett has been doing a damn good job.

The facts are right there for anyone with a brain to see. During the 'Boys win streak and the loss to New Orleans, Romo sits to pee threw just one pick and put up huge numbers. He came into FedEx Field and threw three in one game. THREE. That wasn't a fluke.

But let the media keep talking. More fuel for the fire.

[rk3025]

Think they believe RG3's brace will effect him. Glad he has had time to wear it. Wilson in his third year at NC State went the season with no interceprtions the year he graduated in three years.

[PortisBetts]

Multiple picks by Griffin? That's a joke right? Has he had a multiple turnover game all season? Are the Seahawks really known for creating turnovers? We had one of the best turnover differentials in the whole league. Doenst matter though, we are the skins.

[No_Pressure]

Our defense was 22nd in points allowed this season.

32nd in the league in pass attempts against- teams decided to throw more against the Redskins than any other team in the NFL this season.

30th in yards given up in the passing game.

We were 1st in rushing attempts against, which of course makes sense since every team decided to throw 40 times against us.

These have been talked about at great length by the pundits out there- how awful the Redskins defense is and has been all season. Certainly we can all agree that our secondary is not in great shape and that with a better defense we would not have been 3-6 to start the season, losing close games to the Rams, Bengals, Falcons and Giants. With a great defense we can all easily imagine this team at 12-4 or better.

With that in mind, I would like to point out that the Packers, Superbowl champions in 2010, went 15-1 in 2011. They were 32nd in the league in pass defense and just as horrible if not worse than our defense on the season against the pass. Yes, they were one and done in the playoffs but the Giants just seem to have their number no matter what they do.

The NFL is also a "what have you done lately" league. Anyone who has watched the Redskins all season knows that we're a much different team right now than we were before our bye week.

Prior to the bye, this is the Washington Redskins defense:

27.7 Points per game allowed on average

301.1 Passing yards per game allowed on average

22.7 First downs per game allowed on average

Since the bye week this is what our defense has looked like:

20 Points per game allowed on average

256 Passing yards per game allowed on average

19 First downs per game allowed on average

We haven't become a great defense, but we've tightened things up and we're playing much better games. Here's an interesting stat for the entire season however: We've only had 3 games this year where we didn't force a turnover- the Giants MNF game, the Steelers loss and the Panthers loss.

In every game in which we have forced a turnover, with the exception of Tampa, we have forced 2 or more. In other words, in 12 games this season, our defense forced two or more turnovers. We had 3 in a game 6 times this season.

To put this in perspective, only 4 teams forced more turnovers than the Washington Redskins this season, the Cardinals, Giants, Patriots, and Bears.

For the Cardinals, only 8 games had multiple turnovers, 4 fewer than our defense. Multiple 4 turnover and one 6 turnover game brought up their numbers, but they were not consistent.

The Giants forced multiple turnovers in 9 games this season

The Patriots and Bears had multiple turnovers in 13 games this season, edging us out by one.

In other words, we were the 3rd most consistent team this season in forcing turnovers.

Seattle tied us with 31 total turnovers forced, but forced multiple turnovers in 9 games this season. 8 of their turnovers came from the Arizona Cardinals in week 14.

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Another interesting fact is turnover differential. Though in many cases this is a measure of offensive skill as well, we're 3rd in the NFL this season.

Here is another thing to think about: The Seahawks are last in the NFL in passes attempted. Much has been made of Russell Wilson, and he certainly has had a fantastic season and will be a good player for years to come. Much like RG3 however, the offensive burden was spread around to a good running game.

I would make comparisons to the Seahawks in terms of statistics, but they have some major outliers in the past 7 weeks. I hate being the guy who picks and chooses statistics, as if their 58 points against the Cardinals, and 50 points against the Bills didn't happen. The Seattle Seahawks are a good team defensively and have a pretty dynamic offense.

4 interceptions from the worst group of quarterbacks in the NFL and 4 forced fumbles will give you 58 points. It is true that good teams run up scores like that, and the Seahawks played well. We beat the Eagles 31-6 in a dominating performance, and I'm sure we're all proud of that. We also beat the crap out of a rookie quarterback and RG3 threw his first touchdown bomb to Aldrick Robinson who was 30 yards away from the guy who forgot to cover him. It was equal parts good team vs. team that decided to poop the bed that day. How did the Seahawks fare in Arizona? 20-16 loss. This isn't a good thing to point to either, since it was the first game of the season, and any sensible Seahawks fan will admit they're a different team on the road.

The blowout against the Bills was run up by Pete Carroll being a jackass, the Bills deciding not to tackle that day, and as one of the Seahawks' 3 road wins, it came in Toronto. They can't control that, but it isn't the same as FedEx field.

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Lastly I'd like to look at the strength of opponents, which I hate to do given the fact that the yards and wins/losses used include things which the teams in question contributed to. In other words, it isn't as satisfactory to point to a division opponent having the #32 run defense in the NFL as a reason why you kicked their asses, if they're so low on the statistics charts BECAUSE you kicked their asses. It becomes a chicken and the egg argument- did you get yards because they suck, or did they suck because you got yards?

At any rate, the combined W-L of teams faced by Seattle this season was (not counting division opponents twice) 104-102

Skins had 105-102

We had the 1 game advantage because of the 49ers tie.

Let's look at the divisional strength of opposing passing offenses for a moment:

Dallas Cowboys: #3 in the NFL (2-0)

New York Giants: #12 in the NFL (1-1)

Philadelphia Eagles: #13 in the NFL (2-0)

For Seattle:

St. Louis Rams: #18 in the NFL (1-1)

San Francisco 49ers: #24 in the NFL (1-1)

Arizona Cardinals: #28 in the NFL (1-1)

Let's look at other NFC opponents:

For Washington:

Saints: #1 in the NFL (W)

Falcons: #6 in the NFL (L)

Bucs: #10 in the NFL (W)

Panthers: #16 in the NFL (L)

St. Louis Rams: #18 in the NFL (L)

Vikings: #31 in the NFL (W)

For Seattle:

Cowboys: #3 (W)

Packers: #9 (W*)

Panthers: #16 (W)

Lions: #2 (L)

Vikings #31 (W)

Bears #29 (W)

*Not really a win

Let's look at AFC opponents:

Skins:

Bengals: #17 (L)

Steelers: #14 (L)

Ravens: #15 (W)

Browns: #19 (W)

Seahawks:

Patriots: #4 (W)

Jets: #30 (W)

Dolphins: #26 (L)

Bills: #25 (W)

Strength of pass offenses played (by NFL yardage rank):

Redskins- 12.68 in NFL on average

Seahawks- 19.68 in NFL on average

One could conclude that in general, the Redskins played better passing teams all season than the Seahawks did, contributing to their low defensive ranking in terms of yards given up and attempts against. Others could conclude that the teams who played the Redskins managed to have a higher rank by virtue of racking up yards against an inferior opponent.

I posted the W-L record for a reason though. In games against opponents in the 1-5 range the Redskins were 3-0 on the season. From 6-10 they were 1-1, from 11-20 they were 5-5, from 20-32 they were 1-0. They only played 1 game vs. a team ranked 20th or worse in pass offense.

The Seahawks were 2-1 vs. the 1 to 5 range, 1-0 in the 6 to 10 range, 2-1 from 11 to 20, and 6-3 vs opponents in the 20-32 range.

I would say we played a higher quality of offensive opponents than the Seahawks did. Their wins against opponents in the 1-20 range, with the exception of Carolina, all came at home, and their losses all came on the road.

In other words, their huge advantage of a top flight pass defense only works at home, and mainly against inferior opponents.

Eh I could continue, but at this point I'm probably just giving Seahawks fans enough material to riot over, assuming they're reading this.

I don't believe they're as good as they think they are, and I think they're in for a surprise on the road this week.

[TheGreek1973]

like I said in another thread. The way Seattle fans are viewing this they have the 85 Bears D, their offense is one of the greatest ever and RGIII is playing with one leg. They feel we have zero chance of even being close let along winning.

[jjpomeroy]

No_Pressure:

Awesome post and thanks for bringing the "facts" to the table!

HTTR!

[2cents]

I read somewhere, and I'm sorry I don't remember where, that we have like the 8th or 9th ranked D during the second half of the season. Our overall ranking is down because of the start of the season. but the D is hot at the right time.

[bradboyd80]

Multiple picks by Griffin? That's a joke right? Has he had a multiple turnover game all season? Are the Seahawks really known for creating turnovers? We had one of the best turnover differentials in the whole league. Doenst matter though, we are the skins.

Yeah, NFL live today predicted that Browner AND Sherman would EACH get an INT against RG3. Dude threw 5 interceptions all season and you think he's going to throw 2 in one game? Seahawks turnover diff was pretty good though; something like +13 (ours is +17). So they do cause turnovers; I just don't see RG3 being careless enough to throw 2 ints in one game.

[emor09]

We're playing the Seahawks. Let's not use stats and facts to argue their "We're the best, you suck" argument.

[deejaydana]

Multiple picks by Griffin? That's a joke right? Has he had a multiple turnover game all season? Are the Seahawks really known for creating turnovers? We had one of the best turnover differentials in the whole league. Doenst matter though, we are the skins.

We ended the season #2 in turnover differential & the Seahags ended up only just behind us @ #4, so yeah, they are good at creating turnovers actually.

[WilberMarshall]

Game will boil down to how the officials will call the game. They let the DBs mug our receivers then it will be a long day. But like EVERY team who have faced us find out, we are much faster live than on film... I expect a big game from The Lumberjack and The Waiter.

[SKINSFAN87]

the skins defense is being completely overlooked, it's all about the seahawks defense and that's it. I'm fine with that, cuz the skins defense is better than there overall ranking and I think seattle will have a much tougher game than what every media, analyst personnel is saying. I love our chances of winning.

[illone]

You guys need to watch playbook.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-playbook/0ap2000000122229/Playbook-Seahawks-vs-Redskins-preview

[RAAZ227]

Seattle fans are so overconfident. You can't compare our defense against Cam to our defense now. Our d hit a milestone last week against Dallas and have been getting better by the week. I think Seattle fans are focusing too hard on the skins d before the bye. Watch out for Haslett!!

[CurseReversed]

Every time I hear this game talked about by the "experts" I never hear them mention that while our defense has not been great this season, that we have been pretty damn good against the run. Very few teams have ran the ball well against us, which matches up perfectly with seattles strength. Seems like this fact has indeed been overlooked by many.