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Redskins-Eagles Predictions for Week 5


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So I've been keeping track of how we are doing (as a whole) prediction wise in the previous threads.

Game 1: 66 predictions, 52 Skins win, 14 Giants win

Predicted scores:

Redskins 22.3 +/- 5.8 (95% confidence interval is 10.7 to 33.9 points)

Giants 17.2 +/- 5.6 (95% confidence interval is 6 to 28.4 points)

Actual Score = 28 – 14


Game 2: 77 predictions, 71 Skins win, 6 Cardinals win

Predicted scores:

Redskins 29.3 +/- 6.1 (95% confidence interval is 17.1 to 41.5 points)

Cardinals 17.2 +/- 5.3 (95% confidence interval is 6.6 to 27.8 points)

Actual Score = 22 – 21


Game 3: 99 Total, 74 Redskins win, 15 Cowboys win

Predicted scores:

Redskins: 25.2 +/- 6.2 (95% confidence interval is 12.8 to 37.6 points)

Cowboys: 17.9 +/- 5.1 (95% confidence interval is 7.7 to 28.1 points)

Actual Score = 16 – 18


Game 4: 109 Total, 90 Redskins win, 19 Rams win

Predicted scores:

Redskins: 23.1 +/- 7.0 (95% confidence interval is 9.1 to 37.1 points)

Rams: 16.0 +/- 6.2 (95% confidence interval is 3.6 to 28.4 points)

Actual Score = 17 – 10

Rudechain, Bigmuss1, and skinfan1957 all predicted it correctly! First time anyone has so far.


Cumulative predictions:

Redskins Predicted Offense = 24.9 +/- 6.9

Redskins Actual Offense = 20.8 +/- 4.8

Redskins Predicted Defense (e.g. Opponent's O) = 17.0 +/- 5.7

Redskisn Actual Defense (e.g. Opponent's O) = 15.8 +/- 4.1

Our defense is doing better than we predict them to be doing in giving up PPG, although cumulatively it's pretty close.

Our offense has been doing somewhere around ~20-30% worse than we are expecting it to do... although I'd probably have to run another analysis on confidence intervals to see how much (which I am not going to do b/c too lazy).

Our actual O and D differential is 20.8 points minus 15.8 points which is +5 points... a big part of which we are currently 3-1. Our defense is carryin us. But everyone already knew that...

As a collective whole in predictions we are: 228 – 113


My prediction = 24-21 us.

I sincerely hope we can run against them so we can put up enough points to win because they will likely put up a large amount of points. I'm hoping we can hold them to 3 TDs or less.

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Hate to say it...but i firmly believe that the Skins drop this one. The Eagles are too desperate and it's a divisional game. My mind tells me the Skins should win by running the ball and playing good defense, but my heart tells me that the Skins will break my heart by falling to a last second field goal....

Eagles 27

Redskins 24

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I haven't picked against the Skins this year but I think this is the game we lose even though we beat them in Philly early last year and this team is much better. Unless Vick gets knocked out, then we win for sure if it's early.

Of course I could be totally off. I know Vick will fumble faster than Grossman and gives the defense a lot of chances to take it from him. Also I think we are due some Int's, I just don't know if Vick will continue to throw 3-4 picks a game.

Eagles have been finding ways to lose games every week but it has to end eventually so of course it'll be against us. we'll still be able to run all over them but they'll score too many points.

Eagles 31 Redskins 24

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I predicted the Cowboys loss, but felt we'd win all the other games. This week, my prediction is that a desperate Eagles team finally digs deep and plays disciplined football, and Vick manages to avoid the flukey INTs that plagued him in Buffalo. Grossman struggles under pressure, and the Redskins injury luck finally stalls, as we lose a starter for 6-8 weeks. Eagles 31, Redskins 21. Sure hope I'm wrong.

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Yeah this will be the first team with a heavy and fearsome pass rush that Vick has come up against. A lot of their drives are kept alive by him scrambling, and I can't see that working for him this week. When he has to stay in the pocket, he makes mistakes and he takes hits.

I genuinely believe that the Skins can beat the Eagles if we play to the best of our ability.

Redskins 21

Eagles 17

Grossman 1 TD, 1 Int

Vick 2 TD, 2 Int

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It's only Tuesday and my nerves are already shot for this game. It's ridiculous. I'm never one to use terms like "Biggest game of the year", etc but I have to admit, the way things are playing out this weekend it sure does feel like the most important in recent memory. If for no other reason than we have an opportunity to step on the throat of a badly beaten down Eagles team that would put us up 4 games on them. That along with the Giants and Cowboys looking at a very good chance of losing their matchups this weekend it would put us in the best position in our division in a decade, maybe more. I know it's only week 5, but I will feel much better if we win this weekend(not that I don't say that every weekend, but moreso this game). Over the last few years the Skins would find a way to loose this game. Here's hoping that my optimism about the direction this team is going is well founded.

Final Score -

Redskins 21

Eagles 17

Defense comes up big again. At least 3 turnovers.


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I feel I have to apologise too, for my prediction, but after having watched the Bills/Eagles match on tv, you cannot argue against the fact that the Eagles have an explosive offence - I really thought they were going to get those 17 points back in the 4th quarter.

Having said that, I think we may put together a couple of good quarters of offence, but will come up short, Eagles 31 Redskins 20.

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