Trent Williams Needs to Pick It Up

[megared]

Mega,

Do you think that if Samuels was on the Cowboys (or some other media darling) for the duration of his career, he might have received more accolades from the press?

Maybe in terms of a Pro Bowl or two. But since he was a notch below the other guys I mentioned I don't think his career trajectory would've been that different, assuming he sustained the same injuries.

I'd be willing to bet that he wouldn't get his just due here however. There'd be discussions viewing him as a stiff, injury prone, overrated LT that only played 10 years, and that wasn't as dominant in run blocking as elite LTs.

Had Samuels not played under those guys' shadows, in a different era, he would've received much more recognition. Fact is he had glaring weaknesses compared to the top tier guys, which is okay, because 99% of other players do too.

[ATLredskin]

I can understand getting beat by Freeney, but to get beat by some guy name Chick...cmon man

[wrecker]

I can understand getting beat by Freeney, but to get beat by some guy name Chick...cmon man

Better than being beaten by some girl chick.

[Bantu]

Demarcus Ware said numerous times (most notably in a Sporting News NFL preview issue a few seasons ago) that Chris Samuels was by far the toughest LT he had to face.

I think I'll take Ware's assessment of Chris Samuels over the bulls--- opinions of previous posters in this thread. Just sayin'

[Skins Wingman]

im not gonna base his performance over 1 bad preseason game.. nobody was saying anything bad about trent against the steelers.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

Demarcus Ware said numerous times (most notably in a Sporting News NFL preview issue a few seasons ago) that Chris Samuels was by far the toughest LT he had to face.

I think I'll take Ware's assessment of Chris Samuels over the bulls--- opinions of previous posters in this thread. Just sayin'

Ware never faced a prime Ogden or Roaf or Jones or even a prime Orlando Pace. Technically Samuels retired in the tail-end of his "prime", he just suffered a career-ending injury.

[Going Commando]

Trent Williams was was one of the worst in terms of sacks allowed last season.

Just sayin', zoony makes a fair point.

Sacks allowed isn't a good metric for measuring pass blocking efficiency. It ignores a lot of bad play, and assigment of blame for sacks becomes particularly problematic because you're working with a miniscule number of plays for even the worst performing OTs in the league. Remember, assignment of blame for sacks is subjective and often there is a blurred line for who is really to blame for the breakdown of the play. This subjectivity is made acutely problematic given that 10-12 sacks allowed is usually the most you'll see in a season of about 1,000 snaps for a starting left tackle.

So how do you measure how the lineman did on the other ~990 snaps? PFF measures pressures allowed on a per play basis as the metric of failure for offensive lineman and they are pretty reliable about tallying up these pressures and apportioning blame. Basically, they're better about grading and evaluationg line play with advanced metrics based on actual observation than anyone else in the media.

A "pressure" is slightly weighted to favor sacks, they define it as this: (Sacks + (0.75 * Hits) + (0.75 * Hurries).

This is their formula for determining Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE): ((Sacks + (0.75 * Hits) + (0.75 * Hurries)) / Pass Pro Snaps) * 100

So it gives you a percentage of the number of snaps that the OL gave up a pressure in Pass Pro. Here's a list of the top 15 and bottom 15 OTs in the NFL ranked by PBE. It's the best measure of how good they were in pass protection last season that you'll find outside of performing your own film analysis. https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/13/2010-pass-blocking-efficiency-tackles/

Take a look at the top 15 list and you'll see other rookies like Okung and Saffold ranked in the top 15 and Trent and Jared Veldheer ranked in the bottom 15. But their PBE scores aren't especially different in range. On the RT rankings, two more rookies made the bottom 15 in PBE, Bryan Bulaga and Anthony Davis.

PFF also measures run blocking quality and assigns a numeric grade for that which they combine with their PBE grades to come up with a total grade for the lineman's performance for the year. Here is a list of how the rookie starting tackles ended up placing in their rankings:

Russell Okung (31st overall), Rodger Saffold (49th), Zane Beadles (53rd), Trent Williams (65th), Jared Veldheer (68th), Bryan Bulaga (69th) and Anthony Davis (71st) all had trouble making a consistent positive impact as they transitioned to the pros last season. Not one rookie offensive tackle who played at least 25% of snaps had a positive overall grade...

So Okung was the best rookie tackle last season when he played, but he wasn't good by any means. Bottom line = Rookie OTs are just not very good. They're expected to struggle in all phases of the game.

Trent's level of progression so far has been entirely normal. There really is no reason for alarm. Here's PFF's take on how he and the offensive line played in the Colts game: http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/08/20/first-impressions-redskins-colts/

● The offensive line, while improved, still had its issues. My colleague Khaled Elsayed had some real concerns about Trent Williams last week and while I was actually very impressed with his run blocking (his work on Roy Helu’s 51 yarder early in the second quarter being a good example) the way Dwight Freeney bull-rushed him to sack Beck was a concern. Both Kory Lichtensteiger and Will Montgomery balanced off good plays with poor plays in the running game, but it was the way both got pushed backwards from the line of scrimmage on occasions that left me thinking all may not be as the rushing stats indicate.

So other impressions, there was definitely some good to go with Trent's performance and in general, he played better than he did the week before. He's also not the only one on the line struggling, as both Lichtensteiger and Montgomery struggled in the running game. That makes Trent's performance stand out in that area even a bit more because they had huge success running off tackle to the left.

Trent will be fine.

[PorkSkins]

It's called the sophomore slump. I'm not banking anything on preseason play for starters. Let's see what he has on opening day.

[megared]

Sacks allowed isn't a good metric for measuring pass blocking efficiency. It ignores a lot of bad play, and assigment of blame for sacks becomes particularly problematic because you're working with a miniscule number of plays for even the worst performing OTs in the league. Remember, assignment of blame for sacks is subjective and often there is a blurred line for who is really to blame for the breakdown of the play. This subjectivity is made acutely problematic given that 10-12 sacks allowed is usually the most you'll see in a season of about 1,000 snaps for a starting left tackle.

I've got to disagree with this, because if there is ambiguity to whose assignment the player was, it isn't counted. If the QB scrambles out of the pocket, holds the ball too long, or takes an angle that makes it impossible for the player to block, they aren't credited with a sack allowed.

I'd be interested in PFF also validating their numbers by using HOF level players to show if their metric is consistent across the board.

Rookie OTs are just not very good.

Trent Williams allowed 11.5 sacks last season (in 14 games). By comparison, Samuels allowed 6 sacks his rookie season, and 44.75 for his 10 year career. Taking it a step further, Walter Jones allowed 23 sacks in 13 seasons, and Ogden allowed 26 sacks in 12 seasons.

[zoony]

I would like to address a couple of points being repeatedly made that are a substitute for thinking.

1. This is not a callout thread for a player that has had a bad game. This is a callout thread for a player who had a poor rookie season followed by an ambiguous offseason followed by a schooling against Colts starters and backups. Saying something like "are we just going to start this kind of thread whenever a player has a bad game?" makes you a trolling, ignorant jerk. And I will respond in kind.

2. This is not an indictment of Trent Williams personally. I don't know him personally, nor do I care.

A few other points:

3. This is not a prediction of what he is capable of. Quite the opposite, I have said repeatedly that his physical potential is the most frustrating part, and really the heart of the conversation here. He should be performing at a higher level, in my opinion. He has repeatedly shown flashes of outstanding ability- like running downfield and locking up on cornerbacks in the open field. I don't think I've ever seen an Olineman do that, actually.

4. If you watched his rookie campaign and his preseason so far, and you think he is indeed playing to his potential, I guess that's fine. I don't understand it, but that's fine, you're entitled to your opinion. You're even entitled to providing supporting evidence, like stevemqueen is doing. I can respect that, and that's exactly why I started the thread.

5. I will be rooting for him to get better, we need him to perform at a high level this year. Nothing would make me happier than to see him start to fill out his potential.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Still not a good time to mention I bemoan taking Orakpo over Oher?

Hail.

[AKM311]

It's called the sophomore slump. I'm not banking anything on preseason play for starters. Let's see what he has on opening day.

So our franchise LT has a rookie slump and now we should also be ok with a sophmore slump?

Doesn't he eventually have to play well?

[zoony]

Still not a good time to mention I bemoan taking Orakpo over Oher?

Hail.

I'm with you there.

And regarding Samuels, he was an elite left tackle, one of the best of his era. But I don't think he was at the level of a Jones or an Ogden. That doesn't take anything away from Chris who was an outstanding player.

[Going Commando]

Still not a good time to mention I bemoan taking Orakpo over Oher?

Hail.

Oher was just as bad as Trent last season in pass pro. He's struggled really hard since moving to the left side.

Orakpo looked phenomenal against the Colts in all phases of his position: coverage, pass rushing, and run defense. I think he's poised for a third year leap into an all around dominant player--impressive considering he was already a Probowl caliber pass rusher.

[polywog999]

I'm with you there.

And regarding Samuels, he was an elite left tackle, one of the best of his era. But I don't think he was at the level of a Jones or an Ogden. That doesn't take anything away from Chris who was an outstanding player.

Zoony,

Remember Jim Lachey? His first year with the Skins, he graded out as the worst starting lineman. By the next year he made everyone forget that LT still played football.

[Oldfan]

SMcQ: You made a leap from this fact...

Not one rookie offensive tackle who played at least 25% of snaps had a positive overall grade...

...to this conclusion:

Bottom line = Rookie OTs are just not very good. They're expected to struggle in all phases of the game. Trent's level of progression so far has been entirely normal.

One season’s stats on rookie LTs are not enough to support making a general rule.

I have no stats, just a seat of the pants feel from watching the game for many years. The great LTs are great in their rookie season, the good ones show up in year two. But, I can’t recall a LT who performed as Trent did in year one, 11 sacks in 14 games, six false starts, ever turning out to be good long term.

I hope he’s the exception.

---------- Post added August-23rd-2011 at 10:57 AM ----------

Zoony,

Remember Jim Lachey? His first year with the Skins, he graded out as the worst starting lineman. By the next year he made everyone forget that LT still played football.

I remember Jim Lachey well, but I don't remember him ever looking bad.

[sportjunkie07]

Still not a good time to mention I bemoan taking Orakpo over Oher?

Hail.

i disagree. we did have a need there at DE/OLB, and orakpo has been very good.

i guess the way i see it is, if you have a desperate need at cb, and a slightly smaller but still a big need at wr, i dont have any problem if you draft an awesome wide receiver. you hit the jackpot at a position of need, thats always a good thing.

[polywog999]

I remember Jim Lachey well, but I don't remember him ever looking bad.

1988

[megared]

Zoony,

Remember Jim Lachey? His first year with the Skins, he graded out as the worst starting lineman. By the next year he made everyone forget that LT still played football.

Are you implying that Gibbs let Lachey block LT one on one? That's inaccurate.

He had ALOT of TE help, for one thing. Secondly, LT didn't rush from one stationary place on the field every play.

[zoony]

1988

wog, I remember Lachey well. I don't remember him struggling at all, though I admit to not remembering that specific year. After the trade for Shraeder all I remember is dominance.

I do remember, I think it was our 91 season, that he started every game, never surrendered one sack and was never called for one holding penalty. That is dominance. Going from memory here, someone correct me if I'm wrong.

I think Lachey has been forgotten somewhat by most fans, I think he was the best tackle in franchise history. Jacoby gets a ton of credit for revolutionizing the position, but Lachey was better imo.

(bracing for rotten tomatoes)

[polywog999]

wog, I ate dinner with Jim Lachey when I was 15 years old . I don't remember him struggling at all, though I admit to not remembering that specific year. After the trade for Shraeder all I remember is dominance.

I do remember, I think it was our 91 season, that he started every game, never surrendered one sack and was never called for one holding penalty. That is dominance.

I think Lachey has been forgotten somewhat by most fans, I think he was the best tackle in franchise history. Jacoby gets a ton of credit for revolutionizing the position, but Lachey was better imo.

I remember just about everything i ever read [of importance] I remember, very specifically, Jim struggling that year. When he joined the team, they moved Jake and dropped Jim immediately into LT. He didn't do well at first.

I completely agree about Jim.

[Going Commando]

SMcQ: You made a leap from this fact...

...to this conclusion:

One season’s stats on rookie LTs are not enough to support making a general rule.

I have no stats, just a seat of the pants feel from watching the game for many years. The great LTs are great in their rookie season, the good ones show up in year two. But, I can’t recall a LT who performed as Trent did in year one, 11 sacks in 14 games, six false starts, ever turning out to be good long term.

I hope he’s the exception.

More than one season's stats is definitely needed, but unfortunately PFF doesn't make that data available to the public for free. They've only been calculating this stat for three years.

I found a top 15/bottom 15 article for PBE for linemen for the past three years, which is about the best I can come up with: http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/15/three-year-pass-blocking-efficiency-offensive-linemen/

Only linemen who have over 1,000 snaps in pass protections which is a little under two seasons for a starting offensive tackle.

I do, however, remember reading a stat where Ryan Clady--considered a very good pass protecting offensive lineman, surrendered the most pressures of any tackle in the league as a rookie. And he didn't play injured like Trent did. Now in his third season, Clady ranked as the 8th most efficient pass protecting LT in the league. So that's a precedent for Trent of a LT improving substantially as a pass protector from his rookie season, in an extremely similar offensive system.

I also remember D'Brickashaw Ferguson improving dramatically in his third or fourth season to the point where he's now one of the two or three best pass protecting LTs in the league.

You don't have Joe Thomas' rookie season in that three year calculation unfortunately. But from sophomore season on he's certainly been one of the best pass protecting LTs in the league. Jake Long has been the best, posting a truly dominant 3 year PBE that includes his rookie season. As far as I can tell, those are the only two LTs that can really be considered great.

Jared Gaither and Willie Colon have posted elite PBE totals for two seasons. Gaither is not considered elite though after he missed all of last season and some of 2009 and he might never be the same again, as the Ravens let him walk in FA and the Chiefs are supposedly pretty close to cutting him already.

Colon's PBE numbers are interesting but he's a RT, a much easier position to play on the whole, and he's coming off an injury that forced him to miss all of 2010. Plus he's going into his sixth year, and it's only recently that he's been considered a top level pass protector.

So basically the only current two OTs who looked dominant from rookie season onward that I can find are Jake Long and Joe Thomas. They're clearly the exception to the rule that rookie OTs are usually bad. They're exceptional players building HoF caliber resumes recognized as the great left tackles of the league by conventional wisdom: seven Probowls and five All-Pro selections between the two of them in seven total years of service.

For everyone else, a normal rate of progression seems to include rookie year struggles in pass protection.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Oher was just as bad as Trent last season in pass pro. He's struggled really hard since moving to the left side.

That's harsh man. He didn't have as good a year as his rookie year, and his pass pro wasn't as good as his run blocking that's true.

But whilst not playing to an all-pro level, he was still consistently solid for the Ravens last year in both aspects.

Hail.

[MartinC]

wog, I remember Lachey well. I don't remember him struggling at all, though I admit to not remembering that specific year. After the trade for Shraeder all I remember is dominance.

I do remember, I think it was our 91 season, that he started every game, never surrendered one sack and was never called for one holding penalty. That is dominance. Going from memory here, someone correct me if I'm wrong.

I think Lachey has been forgotten somewhat by most fans, I think he was the best tackle in franchise history. Jacoby gets a ton of credit for revolutionizing the position, but Lachey was better imo.

(bracing for rotten tomatoes)

Lachey did struggle a bit in 88 but so did the whole team and it was his first year in a new system having joined from the Raiders. 88 was a year when we had a revolving door at QB and RB through injury and mediocre play (Timmy Smith spent more time in night clubs than on the field that year). It was Gibbs worst year of his first stint coming off the Super Bowl win in 87 so Lachey was not alone in struggling that year.

From 89 onwards though to say '92 he was the best LT in football IMO and the entire line only gave up 9 sacks all year in 91. Nine! Injuries caught up with him as age caught up with the rest of the roster. I think your right he does get overlooked, when people talk about the Hogs we all think of Javoby and Grimm but Lachey was a better pass protector than Jacoby and a better run blocker in space as well.

[Going Commando]

That's harsh man. He didn't have as good a year as his rookie year, and his pass pro wasn't as good as his run blocking that's true.

But whilst not playing to an all-pro level, he was still consistently solid for the Ravens last year in both aspects.

Hail.

Wow so a small earthquake just happened as I started typing my reply. I'll post some links from PFF about Michael Oher for a better response in a bit.