Drafting a franchise QB from the Redskins draft slot: what 25 years of history tells us

[benskins26]

Andrew Luck is going to command an enormous contract. Our biggest hope is that the #1 pick is held by a cheap ass owner/team who is looking to trade out of that financial commitment.

What is Carolina's owner like? Are they the type of team willing to drop huge amounts of money on a rookie QB?

See my previous posts on this subject. As bad as Carolina needs a new face of their franchise (their averaging like 25k fans in the stadium, complete malaise by the fanbase), their owner, Jerry Richardson is no Dan Snyder. And they're actually a lot like us- holes ALL OVER the place. Plus they'll be going through a complete FO and Coaching overhaul. Unless they end up with Harbaugh, I just don't see them making that pick.

[TK]

If you have the opportunity to get the QB you need, you do it! That's all. If it's not this year, it will be next, but if there is someone that Shanny likes, which isn't that often, he needs to get his guy.

Which explains the McNabb contract being set up the way it is to where we can cut him at anytime. McNabb may be back next year just to fill the slot because Shanny doesn't see his guy in this draft when it's time to pick. Or Rex may be the bridge for Shanny's guy next year. It's really just to soon to tell at this point. The Combine should shed some light though.

[Gurgeh]

See my previous posts on this subject. As bad as Carolina needs a new face of their franchise (their averaging like 25k fans in the stadium, complete malaise by the fanbase), their owner, Jerry Richardson is no Dan Snyder. And they're actually a lot like us- holes ALL OVER the place. Plus they'll be going through a complete FO and Coaching overhaul. Unless they end up with Harbaugh, I just don't see them making that pick.

And if Carolina don't want to pick him, that only leaves Cincinnati, Arizona and San Francisco ahead of us, all looking for a QB, not to mention the teams below us who'd like a QB and who have many more picks to offer than we do.

We went down this road with Bradford last year. The more hype a QB gets the less chance we have of drafting him because we do not have the ammunition, and yes that does mean we are years (plural) away from being consistently competitive, and not just the occasional fluke run at the playoffs.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Which explains the McNabb contract being set up the way it is to where we can cut him at anytime. McNabb may be back next year just to fill the slot because Shanny doesn't see his guy in this draft when it's time to pick. Or Rex may be the bridge for Shanny's guy next year. It's really just to soon to tell at this point. The Combine should shed some light though.

Any idea yet, in your opinion, if the organization is willing to go all out to get Luck? It doesn't sound like it, but I might be reading in too much.

[ThomasRoane]

Just curious what the point values are. What would the asking price be? Swap Number 1's. Give up our high 2. Next year's number 1. Then what else?

I'd be very tempted to get Luck. The way Shannahan and Allen have picked UFA's and then factor in that we can fill in some gaps with FA's I think we could recover. If you can get a Peyton Manning/Tom Brady type QB then you come out ahead in the long run. I'm talking a top-notch starter for 10 years or more. It sounds painful but I think you gotta do it.

[The Tris]

Just curious what the point values are. What would the asking price be? Swap Number 1's. Give up our high 2. Next year's number 1. Then what else?

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

Despite what the draft value chart says, trading the 2011 #9, 2011 #41, 2012 1st and 2012 2nd for the 2011 #1 is idiotic.

Four potential starters is not worth one potential starter.

[rookieskin]

:applause::applause::applause:

There is no second place in the franchise QB derby, at the top of the draft. Either you win big, or it's a disaster that scars the franchise for years. You don't get 90% of a franchise QB by missing: you get 100% of a 4-year hangover.

Drafting a franchise QB is a dream come true. Wanting that dream does not make it happen, and using a high #1 pick on wishful thinking has 84% odds of making things much worse.

:applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause:

We need to pick NT or OL or trade way the heck down.

Mark Ingram may be the only non DT/OL pick that would make any sense in first round for this team.

A backfield of Ingram/Torain/Williams would not look too bad AS LONG AS OL IS ADDRESSED WITH 3 NEW STARTERS IN FA/DRAFT.

[Chicken Fried]

I keep going back and forth on this, but I would do a Saints for Ricky Williams kind of trade if not bigger for Luck. We haven't had a franchise QB for over 10 years, and our record shows why that is not a good thing. If we can play FA well, we can be in solid shape with a guy like Andrew Luck at the helm. The Colts got Manning, sucked for a few years, and slowly built it back up, but they got their QB first.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

rookieskin, I'm afraid that Ingram is a waste of a pick for this team/coach. I'm not sure why you'd burn a resource to draft a guy at a position that seems to be OK with interchangeable parts. The Redskins have rushed for 1300+ yards at a 4.3 yards per carry with a hodge-podge of players in the backfield. That production is good enough for me to find a RB much later in the draft or continue moving forward with Torain, Williams, and Davis.

[sebestian]

Guys It does not matter how the QB is at this point of our development. We have bigger needs. My goodness you guys want to trade all value picks for a QB, at #1 that is nuts. Just look at last game. What was Rex Grossman able to do when he had time, put up 30 points. Football is all about the lines. Its a simple game. Your QB needs time, you build through the trenches with draft picks. We have to trade down and really build the lines, thats the only option if you want to be a championship caliber time again.

The proof is in the pudding. Joe Gibbs, one of the best coaches of all time won three superbowls with three different QB's. What was the one constant, the HOGS. There is nothing else to say. Please guys we have to build the lines.

[Dukes and Skins]

Guys It does not matter how the QB is at this point of our development. We have bigger needs. My goodness you guys want to trade all value picks for a QB, at #1 that is nuts. Just look at last game. What was Rex Grossman able to do when he had time, put up 30 points. Football is all about the lines. Its a simple game. Your QB needs time, you build through the trenches with draft picks. We have to trade down and really build the lines, thats the only option if you want to be a championship caliber time again.

The proof is in the pudding. Joe Gibbs, one of the best coaches of all time won three superbowls with three different QB's. What was the one constant, the HOGS. There is nothing else to say. Please guys we have to build the lines.

Here's a stat thought that counteracts anything, look at the past superbowl winners, of the Superbowl winners from the 1990 season to now, 14 of them had QB's they had drafted and grew into their system.

What I think a lot of the people are saying is this, you need to build the lines and no one is going to ever refute that as a statement but you also need the franchise QB because as its been shown through the Superbowls only 3 since 2001 have had QB's who weren't drafted by the team. You need to build the lines but you also need a Franchise QB even look at the Rams their team was in shambles and could have drafted Suh to be the dominant force at DT for them because they had nothing outside of Chris Long, but they took Bradford because they knew he was the best thing for the team. While yes it required no trading up for him, they also made one of the best decisions and now they have a QB who is leading them to areas they haven't been for a while

[ThomasRoane]

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

Despite what the draft value chart says, trading the 2011 #9, 2011 #41, 2012 1st and 2012 2nd for the 2011 #1 is idiotic.

Four potential starters is not worth one potential starter.

On the contrary I think it's taking a long-term view. A good QB can play for more than 10 seasons. But there are only a handful of those players that come out every several drafts. TD Washington made a great point. This will be the best FA market ever. And we will be in great shape (salary cap wise) to fill a lot of holes. And after seeing how we deal with people that just want a pay check I think we will be able to attract the right guys. If you're going to do something this bold and risky then this is the year to do it.

[washedup2]

I would not give up any high picks, I'd try to package later picks and trades to move up...if not.. take the best available Qb at the pick we have.

[Dukes and Skins]

I would not give up any high picks, I'd try to package later picks and trades to move up...if not.. take the best available Qb at the pick we have.

You know it would require the high picks to move up though right? There's no way a team will take a 1st and some mid round picks for a higher pick. They want a 1st and 2nd at least

[charlton]

Last year I would have traded 2 full drafts for Sam Bradford, and this year might be tempted to do it again for Andrew Luck. By full drafts, I mean all available picks, rounds 1-3.

However, this year I don't see the Panthers giving up the pick, assuming they pick #1, and I don't see Shanahan offering what would be required.

So, we move on to Plan B. Elsewhere I've made the argument for Rex Grossman as starter. Here I simply give you History's Guide to QBs Picked in the Redskin Slot.

"Redskin Slot" is defined as the higher of:

• 3rd QB picked in the first round, or
  
• First QB picked with pick #6 or lower
  

This presumes that 2 QBs will be picked in the first 5 picks, and the Redskins will draft #6 or lower. The actual scenario could be worse. As many as 3 QBs could be picked before the Redskins pick, and the Redskins might pick as low as #10.

Here we go. Meet the future Redskin franchise QBs, from 25 years of history!

2010: Tim Tebow (#25, second QB after Sam Bradford)

2009: Josh Freeman (#17, third QB. Mark Sanchez was #5)

2008: Joe Flacco (#18, second QB after Matt Ryan)

2007: Brady Quinn (#22, second QB after JaMarcus Russell)

2006: Matt Leinart (#10, second QB after Vince Young)

2005: Aaron Rodgers (#24, second QB after Alex Smith)

2004: Ben Roethlisberger (#11, third QB after Eli Manning and Philip Rivers)

2003: Byron Leftwich (#7, second QB after Carson Palmer)

2002: Patrick Ramsey (#32, third QB after David Carr & Joey Harrington)

2001: N/A no qualifiers

2000: N/A no qualifiers

1999: Akili Smith (#3, third QB after Tim Couch & Donovan McNabb)

1998: N/A no qualfiers. Ryan Leaf #2, second QB after Peyton Manning

1997: N/A no qualifiers

1996: N/A no qualifiers

1995: N/A no qualifiers. Kerry Collins #5 after Steve McNair.

1994: Trent Dilfer (#6, second QB after Heath Schuler)

1993: N/A no qualifiers. Rick Mirer #2, second QB after Drew Bledsoe.

1992: Tommy Maddox (#25, second QB after David Klinger)

1991: Todd Marinovich (#24, second QB after Dan McGuire)

1990: Andre Ware (#7, second QB after Jeff George)

1989: N/A no qualifiers

1988: N/A no qualiifers

1987: Kelly Stouffer (#6, second QB after Vinny Testaverde)

1986: Chuck Long (#12, second QB after Jim Everett)

Summing up:

• 25 drafts
  
• 4 drafts with franchise QBs available & chosen in / around Redskin slot
  
• 21 drafts with busts in Redskin slot or not even a 2nd QB chosen in first round
  
• Odds of hitting franchise QB: 16%
  

I wanted Sam Bradford last year, and I want Andrew Luck this year. Assuming that we aren't getting Luck, history tells us that picking "the next best thing" has about a 16% chance of working out, and 84% chance of saddling the team with an expensive bust who costs a pick better used for another position.

There is no second place in the franchise QB derby, at the top of the draft. Either you win big, or it's a disaster that scars the franchise for years. You don't get 90% of a franchise QB by missing: you get 100% of a 4-year hangover.

Drafting a franchise QB is a dream come true. Wanting that dream does not make it happen, and using a high #1 pick on wishful thinking has 84% odds of making things much worse.

The Redkins simply don't suck enough to be rewarded with a franchise QB.

So says history.

If Grossman doesn't regress badly and immediately, he's the obvious Redskins starting QB for the next four years under the Shanahan regime. If he does regress badly in the next 2 games, then I'd look long and hard at trading whatever is required for Andrew Luck.

It's all about the next two games. Either Grossman performs, or all chips should be on the table for Andrew Luck.

Not sure if this has been mentioned because I haven't read through the whole thread but this analysis is a bit incomplete. You need to compare the hit rate of the redskins draft position (16% in your analysis) versus the hit rate of a club drafting in the top positions, then look at the differential and see if that differential is worth betting the farm to move up in the draft. My hunch is that it isn't.

[S.T.real,lights,out]

I would not give up any high picks, I'd try to package later picks and trades to move up...if not.. take the best available Qb at the pick we have.

U must not have read the OP. Its about what you are saying we should do and how 80 something percent of the it doesn't work

[Riggo#44]

Guys It does not matter how the QB is at this point of our development. We have bigger needs. My goodness you guys want to trade all value picks for a QB, at #1 that is nuts. Just look at last game. What was Rex Grossman able to do when he had time, put up 30 points. Football is all about the lines. Its a simple game. Your QB needs time, you build through the trenches with draft picks. We have to trade down and really build the lines, thats the only option if you want to be a championship caliber time again.

The proof is in the pudding. Joe Gibbs, one of the best coaches of all time won three superbowls with three different QB's. What was the one constant, the HOGS. There is nothing else to say. Please guys we have to build the lines.

While building the lines is definitely important and necessary, there are no lineman worthy of a top-15 pick. Trading down sounds nice, but has become increasingly difficult in recent years. Our big holes on the lines are C and OG, both of whom are projected to be plentiful in the 2nd round (and hopefully a trade will net us a 3rd rounder: FatAl, McNabb, anything...)

The 3 Championships with 3 different QBs in 9 years days are over. If you look at the top passers this year:

12 were drafted in the 1st round

1 in the 2nd round

1 in the 3rd round

2 in the 4thround

0 in the 5th

1 in the 6th

2 in the 7th

[Highway66]

Ricky Stanzi (or) Pat Devlin

That is all.......

not first rounders

[TD_washingtonredskins]

take the best available Qb at the pick we have.

You can't really straddle the fence like that...you have to take the best player available or continue trading down until it makes sense to draft the QB you like. If you go into the draft "trying" to pick QB at your slot no matter what, you'll end up reaching and not getting optimal value with your pick. I'm 100% in the camp of doing whatever it takes to get Luck.

[paloosa]

Last year I would have traded 2 full drafts for Sam Bradford, and this year might be tempted to do it again for Andrew Luck. By full drafts, I mean all available picks, rounds 1-3.

However, this year I don't see the Panthers giving up the pick, assuming they pick #1, and I don't see Shanahan offering what would be required.

So, we move on to Plan B. Elsewhere I've made the argument for Rex Grossman as starter. Here I simply give you History's Guide to QBs Picked in the Redskin Slot.

"Redskin Slot" is defined as the higher of:

• 3rd QB picked in the first round, or
  
• First QB picked with pick #6 or lower
  

This presumes that 2 QBs will be picked in the first 5 picks, and the Redskins will draft #6 or lower. The actual scenario could be worse. As many as 3 QBs could be picked before the Redskins pick, and the Redskins might pick as low as #10.

Here we go. Meet the future Redskin franchise QBs, from 25 years of history!

2010: Tim Tebow (#25, second QB after Sam Bradford)

2009: Josh Freeman (#17, third QB. Mark Sanchez was #5)

2008: Joe Flacco (#18, second QB after Matt Ryan)

2007: Brady Quinn (#22, second QB after JaMarcus Russell)

2006: Matt Leinart (#10, second QB after Vince Young)

2005: Aaron Rodgers (#24, second QB after Alex Smith)

2004: Ben Roethlisberger (#11, third QB after Eli Manning and Philip Rivers)

2003: Byron Leftwich (#7, second QB after Carson Palmer)

2002: Patrick Ramsey (#32, third QB after David Carr & Joey Harrington)

2001: N/A no qualifiers

2000: N/A no qualifiers

1999: Akili Smith (#3, third QB after Tim Couch & Donovan McNabb)

1998: N/A no qualfiers. Ryan Leaf #2, second QB after Peyton Manning

1997: N/A no qualifiers

1996: N/A no qualifiers

1995: N/A no qualifiers. Kerry Collins #5 after Steve McNair.

1994: Trent Dilfer (#6, second QB after Heath Schuler)

1993: N/A no qualifiers. Rick Mirer #2, second QB after Drew Bledsoe.

1992: Tommy Maddox (#25, second QB after David Klinger)

1991: Todd Marinovich (#24, second QB after Dan McGuire)

1990: Andre Ware (#7, second QB after Jeff George)

1989: N/A no qualifiers

1988: N/A no qualiifers

1987: Kelly Stouffer (#6, second QB after Vinny Testaverde)

1986: Chuck Long (#12, second QB after Jim Everett)

Summing up:

• 25 drafts
  
• 4 drafts with franchise QBs available & chosen in / around Redskin slot
  
• 21 drafts with busts in Redskin slot or not even a 2nd QB chosen in first round
  
• Odds of hitting franchise QB: 16%
  

I wanted Sam Bradford last year, and I want Andrew Luck this year. Assuming that we aren't getting Luck, history tells us that picking "the next best thing" has about a 16% chance of working out, and 84% chance of saddling the team with an expensive bust who costs a pick better used for another position.

There is no second place in the franchise QB derby, at the top of the draft. Either you win big, or it's a disaster that scars the franchise for years. You don't get 90% of a franchise QB by missing: you get 100% of a 4-year hangover.

Drafting a franchise QB is a dream come true. Wanting that dream does not make it happen, and using a high #1 pick on wishful thinking has 84% odds of making things much worse.

The Redkins simply don't suck enough to be rewarded with a franchise QB.

So says history.

If Grossman doesn't regress badly and immediately, he's the obvious Redskins starting QB for the next four years under the Shanahan regime. If he does regress badly in the next 2 games, then I'd look long and hard at trading whatever is required for Andrew Luck.

It's all about the next two games. Either Grossman performs, or all chips should be on the table for Andrew Luck.

Who is going to block for that QB whomever he is? Let's do a Mike Ditka trade and pick only Luck or some other QB then we get that guy hurt because he gets knocked out in his 3rd or 4th game. That is why fans like you aren't GM's in the league. you have to understand that without quality O-Linemen to block for a QB they will not be able to throw a quality pass. Then you are saying that we need someone to block for him, he sucks and we need to get another QB to replace him. Then you are saying we never should have gotten rid of McNabb because he is having a great year at "insert team here" and we gave away too much for this guy. So while we want the QB of the future we need to draft the O-linemen of the future also. If we can get both in the draft or FA or both then that is what we should do. No matter who is behind that line throwing the ball and running the offense is only as good as the blocking in front of him allows.

[Dirt]

Shanny will probably get no sleep this offseason, as he studies every QB in the draft. Hopefully, with Bruce Allen's input, the right decision will be made. There's a lot of nifty things to do with that 1st pick. A lot of defensive guys we need (tarheels! ), and a lot of them are great 3-4 fits. Just as a lot of the Olineman/centers are ZBS guys.

I think, again, we can assume we're not going to the superbowl next year. So unless theres a QB in this draft that Shanny feels cannot be missed, I say stick with Rexy.

Great post, btw.

[Glenn X]

If Luck is not possible [...] Work on fixing the o-line and d-line until the opportunity presents itself. This QB draft to me is Luck or nothing, similar to last year being Bradford or nothing.

Agreed. I could see a situation where Jake Locker will be available to us, but I'm not sold on him. I live out west and watch a ton of Pac-10 football, and Locker has never lived up to his hype (though his measurables are striking). Given that, we should focus on the lines -- which is never an unwise plan of action.

[washedup2]

I thinks its possible, some teams don't want top 5 picks strictly because of the $ and what they have to pay them to sign. If they can still get a top 10 pick (and get their guy) packaged then maybe.....if not , like I said...pick the best QB on the board. Lets see if Carolina will pay $80mil for one pick. we would.

You know it would require the high picks to move up though right? There's no way a team will take a 1st and some mid round picks for a higher pick. They want a 1st and 2nd at least

[dahibachi]

Agreed. I could see a situation where Jake Locker will be available to us, but I'm not sold on him. I live out west and watch a ton of Pac-10 football, and Locker has never lived up to his hype (though his measurables are striking). Given that, we should focus on the lines -- which is never an unwise plan of action.

i actually think Shanahan would like Cam Newton over Locker.

[charlton]

Here is an interesting article that relates to this thread

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/05/26/and-yet-another-look-at-drafting-quarterbacks-in-the-nfl/