Drafting a franchise QB from the Redskins draft slot: what 25 years of history tells us

[longball]

Can this team going into next year or even two years protect any quarterback? Probably not, I say focus on drafting o-lineman and be vocal about the rebuilding process. Bring in a young talented QB to get rushed, hit, and hurried would only negatively impact the QBs career in my mind. I can see the happy feet in the pocket now. Suck it up for another year which is what we should have done but we somehow paid for McNabb(?), let Grossman or any QB play next year. We are not competing this year or in 2012 likely. But focus on getting young at the o and d line. Just my two cents. Organization needs to come out and say we are rebuilding!!! When will this happen?

[K.O. Johnny]

Why don't we try and develop someone.

I really liked Tony Pike out of Cincy in the 2010 draft and he went in the sixth round - kinda like Tom Brady. Why don't we go for him.

The talent is out there, no need to sell the farm folks. All this talk of give them Cooley, this year's first, next year's first, blah, blah, yadda, yadda. These kind of moves are what's gotten us into this hole in the first place. I swear, Vinny posts on ES sometimes.

[seriously]

I would rather get as much with our picks (and any other picks we can get for current players) and build our trenches. A mediocre QB (Rex/Beck) can get us through just fine with a good o-line before a rookie (don't care how good) can without time to throw.

[Shanahanigans]

If you have the opportunity to get the QB you need, you do it! That's all. If it's not this year, it will be next, but if there is someone that Shanny likes, which isn't that often, he needs to get his guy. Plummer took us to the AFCCG before Shanny decided that was as far as Plummer was going to go. Although, that was based more on dedication, rather than skillset. Sure enough, Plummer had his worst year with the Broncos in 06 after Cutler was drafted. A player who becomes complacent will not go far with Shanny. Work ethic and the ability to be coached is far more important than than being NFL ready. Cutler had bad habits and poor footwork. They were all coming along nicely until Shanny was let go. He is often criticized for it today as he's regressed some, but hopefully under Martz, that will also improve in a couple of years with proper protection. Shanny drafted a RT in 07 and a LT in 08 all after Cutler was drafted. They were part of one of the best o-lines in the NFL.

Another thing to note that often gets overlooked is the situation that the QB is put in. Jamarcus was lazy and just wanted to get paid, but he didn't have any mentors and had multiple coaches in his short time with the Raiders. The proper mentoring and coaching goes a long way to success. Shanny will give any QB the tools to succeed. Griese, Plummer, etc. all did very well under Shanny. I think the one thing he didn't give Cutler was a good defense. Plummer used that all up.

[S.T.real,lights,out]

I agree! It's Luck or nothing. I would give up two 1st round picks to get this guy. I would not want to give up this years 2nd tho. I think we really need to use that on a C, or G if we dont get one in FA. Dont want him getting killed in his 1st year. That throw he made at the :40 mark was amazing.

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 07:31 AM ----------

Why don't we try and develop someone.

I really liked Tony Pike out of Cincy in the 2010 draft and he went in the sixth round - kinda like Tom Brady. Why don't we go for him.

The talent is out there, no need to sell the farm folks. All this talk of give them Cooley, this year's first, next year's first, blah, blah, yadda, yadda. These kind of moves are what's gotten us into this hole in the first place. I swear, Vinny posts on ES sometimes.

NO!! We haven't made moves like this for players like this. This is y we are in the position we are now. If we would have given up picks we would have a guy like Bradford or even Sanchez. We would have our QB of the future. Instead we gave up picks for McNabb and now we are stuck with Grossman. The longer we wait to bring our star QB and im not talking about a development project the longer we are going to suck!

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 07:32 AM ----------

I would rather get as much with our picks (and any other picks we can get for current players) and build our trenches. A mediocre QB (Rex/Beck) can get us through just fine with a good o-line before a rookie (don't care how good) can without time to throw.

Tell that to Bradford. When u get rid of the ball quick and cam make quick decisions you dont need as good of a line.

[Riggo-toni]

The one time Shanny drafted a QB in this situation it was Cutler, so I'm reasonably confident he won't pull the trigger on the next Rick mirer.

[benskins26]

I'm by no means a draft expert, nor a fortune teller. The draft is always a gamble, and the top 10 draft picks will certainly shift a great deal between now and draft day. However, look at our biggest areas of need: QB, WR, Interior Oline (RT too most likely), NT, OLB, and possibly CB/FS (though I think the group as a whole is significantly better with LL in there). There are certain "rules" to the draft:

1.) If you have a top 5-10 pick, you take it on a Playmaker/gamechanger- a QB, LT, WR, Passrusher- be it DT or DE, and CB

2.) NEVER pick any Oline player OTHER than LT in the top 10; (really, even in the top 20)

So to reiterate our needs- QB, WR, Interior Oline, NT, OLB, and CB/FS, and assuming we pick in the 8-10 range (not to get off topic, but I agree with previous posters- if we're not going to the playoffs, getting stuck in that 6-10 to 8-8 rut is a killer)

To follow the 2nd rule, NEVER take any Oline player other than LT. And lucky for us, this will be an interior oline rich FA class, so I think we address that need there. But for a 1st round pick, that's out

Sadly, last year was the truly elite NT class. There aren't any guys that I would spend a top 10 pick on at NT. So NT is out

While we certainly need another passrusher/OLB, we did that 2 years ago, and could be construed as a frivolous pick. That being said, there are really only 2 guys who fit that mold that I would take, and again, being in that 8-10 range, we'll most likely miss out on both- Marcel Darius and Robert Quinn. So if we want either, we'll have to trade up, which to trade up for anything other than QB, IMO would be stupid. So OLB is out.

CB is definitely an area of need, but is it our weakest spot? With LL back, the unit as a whole is significantly better. That being said, the only CB out of this class that truly excites me is Patrick Peterson. And he'll be gone by pick 5, so same conundrum as with the OLB/DE position. So CB is out.

That leaves QB and WR.

IMO, there are 2 can't miss WRs in this draft, Green and Jones. While I would have preferred to sign Vjax, and not have to use the pick on WR, with the likely franchise tag (**** you AJ Smith), he appears to be off the table. Green most likely will be gone by our pick, with leaves Julio Jones, which IMO is a safe pick, so that's 1 possibility.

As for the big debate, QB, Luck IMO is the only sure fire guy in this draft. While one of Locker, Newton, or Mallet will certainly be there by our pick, I don't feel comfortable spending that high a pick on any "prospect". If you want a prospect, you look in the 2nd-4th rounds, like at a guy like Christian Ponder. But if we want Luck, we'll have to mortgage the farm. For those saying, "build the lines", etc etc, look at it this way- if we're somehow better next year, and QB is the missing piece, it will take A LOT more to move up from even 14th pick to 1st pick or whatever, than what it will take in our current position. And IMO, it all starts with the QB anyway.

The 3rd option is trade back (easier said than done). Pick up an extra 2nd rounder. Go LB in the first (Bruce Carter would be an EXCELLENT ILB, and eventual replacement for Fletcher, an anchor for our defense for years, and could probably be had around 17-20). Then in the 2nd, take BPA of NT/OL/DB.

So in summation, in order of preference- Trade up by any means necessary and take Luck; Trade down and fill needs; Stand pat and take Julio Jones. Just my 2 cents.

[Mursilis]

I said this in another thread, but there is nothing worse than being really bad but going 5-11, 6-10 or 7-9. If you are going to suck, go big. Go 2-14 or 3-13. It is your best chance to grab a franchise QB. There is nothing worse for a franchise than slowly dying with 7-9 or 8-8 records, drafting 10th through 15th and never being bad enough to grab a game changing franchise player.

Your fear here is vastly overstated. It's not like drafting in the top 5 for most of the past 10 years did the Lions any good, and picking late in the first round hasn't hurt teams like the Pats, Steelers, or Colts. There's plenty of quality in every round, if you've got a nice combo platter of luck and good scouting.

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 08:40 AM ----------

I don't really get some people who talk about looking for a gem in later rounds for a QB. It hardly ever happens. Ever. The situation with Brady is a complete anomaly. For any one Brady there are probably hundreds of other QBs taken in mid to late rounds that do absolutely zero. Or, at best, end up as decent backups or passable starters after some time.

Heck, it happened twice with the same team - Cassell was a 7th round pick. They got a 11-5 season out of him, and then traded him for a 2nd!

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 08:52 AM ----------

Personally, I'm going after Luck. Hard.

Multiple 1st rounders, players etc. Do whatever is necessary.

Even the best QB ever still needs help. Look how long it took P. Manning to get a ring. Dan Marino and Jim Kelly never got one. I'm all for getting a franchise QB - I've said repeatedly it's the most important position on the field - but this isn't basketball. An elite QB without talent around him will get you no better than 8 wins. There is such a thing as paying too much for a player, no matter how elite. This team has a LOT of holes, and we can't afford to be trading a bunch of high picks for one single player with so many other needs.

[NavyDave]

I wanted Bradford last year but I REALLY, REALLY want Luck.

I'm willing to give up this years 1st, next year's 1st, McNabb, Haynesworth, Cooley, next year's 3rd etc.

The price is going to be costly.....

None of those Quarterbacks we were in position to get would have won anything here , most still have not have Lombardis but do have the potential, heck Big Ben is a manager with a great defense to back him up, here he would be grilled for hanging on to the ball too long

Then due to not having a quality offensive line and a pass happy mindset by Shanny jr, the Face of the Franchise will be either like the Wizards Wall or the Nats Stephen Strasburg.And we would still suck with numerous holes on Defense thanks to switching to the 3-4

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 08:56 AM ----------

Remember, kids: Drugs are bad, mmkay?

So true because advocating an idiotic move last done by Ditka can only be fueled by illegal substances.

[Riggo#44]

Here are the teams currently ahead of us in draft order:

1. Carolina (2-12)

2. Denver (3-11)

3. Cincinnati (3-11)

4. Arizona (4-10)

5. Detroit (4-10)

6. Buffalo (4-10)

7. San Francisco (5-9)

8. Dallas (5-9)

The teams in bold are more-than-likely to be looking at a QB in the draft as well. I left Buffalo off due to Ryan Fitzpatrick looking pretty good there...

Considering there are four top QB prospects (Luck, Newton, Mallett and Locker) we will be left with "what's left over." I don't think we can safely assume that we are GOING to take a QB in the 1st round. And the more I read, the less and less I want Ryan Leaf...uh...I mean Mallett.

[pray4surf]

Hes gonna be drafted in the 1st round probably

Agreed, but hopefully not by the Skins.

If it's not Luck, we need to address as many needs as possible.

Luck seems to be a sure thing. If I'm Shanny, following the D5 debacle, I wouldn't want to hitch my wagon on to any other QB in the first round.

[Riggo#44]

Agreed, but hopefully not by the Skins.

If it's not Luck, we need to address as many needs as possible.

Luck seems to be a sure thing. If I'm Shanny, following the D5 debacle, I wouldn't want to hitch my wagon on to any other QB in the first round.

I think quite the opposite: Shanny wants to do this more and more...

[pray4surf]

I think quite the opposite: Shanny wants to do this more and more...

Draft Cam? I hope not. I'm no QB expert but I'd feel like we're settling since we couldn't trade up to get what we wanted.

[Elessar78]

Why is it a lot of people think that drafting the right guy is all there is to it? Given a different situation, Joe Montana might just be another bust. Had Favre not been traded out of Atlanta he may have been a footnote. Had Jeff George been drafted by a QB guru he could be Marino-esque. Steve Young might have been awful had he had to play right away instead of developing slowly under Montana. Carson Palmer might be the best QB in the league if he's on a different team.

To trade your whole draft for one guy is dumb. It takes 53 quality guys to win consistently in this league. It's a case of lazy-brain to think that Sam Bradford is the only reason the Rams have turned the corner. Just like all our problems are not because of McNabb/Campbell

[Dukes and Skins]

Why is it a lot of people think that drafting the right guy is all there is to it? Given a different situation, Joe Montana might just be another bust. Had Favre not been traded out of Atlanta he may have been a footnote. Had Jeff George been drafted by a QB guru he could be Marino-esque. Steve Young might have been awful had he had to play right away instead of developing slowly under Montana. Carson Palmer might be the best QB in the league if he's on a different team.

To trade your whole draft for one guy is dumb. It takes 53 quality guys to win consistently in this league. It's a case of lazy-brain to think that Sam Bradford is the only reason the Rams have turned the corner. Just like all our problems are not because of McNabb/Campbell

Actually it really isn't a case of "lazy brain" to think that. Look at the Rams this year on offense now with Bradford giving them a legitimate passing attack, Jackson has open holes to run through and the offense is putting up numbers they haven't in a while. While yes I do agree with your last part about 53 quality players, you can never underestimate the impact of a QB on how a team is doing in terms of better/worse

[benskins26]

Actually it really isn't a case of "lazy brain" to think that. Look at the Rams this year on offense now with Bradford giving them a legitimate passing attack, Jackson has open holes to run through and the offense is putting up numbers they haven't in a while. While yes I do agree with your last part about 53 quality players, you can never underestimate the impact of a QB on how a team is doing in terms of better/worse

Yep. And they're doing that with who at WR exactly? lol.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Good thread....one thing I've noticed is that the hit rate in our slot is very good recently (4 out of the last 7). Maybe the methods used to weed out bad choices have improved or maybe it's an anomaly, but it doesn't look quite as frightening when you consider that we seem to have a better than 50% chance on hitting on someone in our position when you take the last several drafts into account only. How relevant is the 1992 draft when you are looking at what it takes to win the in the NFL NOW?

Just a thought...in the end, I'd agree though that I'd trade just about anything to get Luck and start to build around him. With the cap space that we have, you could make the argument that we could use 2nd-tier FAs to begin to build around him in the first couple years (when we're short draft picks).

[jfriedenthal]

So.... every year you highlighted a QB, they have been "heavy QB drafts" per the experts. This is another one, so it isn't far fetched to get a franchise QB later (10 pick or later) this year.

[SkinsHokieFan]

Here are the teams currently ahead of us in draft order:

1. Carolina (2-12)

2. Denver (3-11)

3. Cincinnati (3-11)

4. Arizona (4-10)

5. Detroit (4-10)

6. Buffalo (4-10)

7. San Francisco (5-9)

8. Dallas (5-9)

The teams in bold are more-than-likely to be looking at a QB in the draft as well. I left Buffalo off due to Ryan Fitzpatrick looking pretty good there...

Considering there are four top QB prospects (Luck, Newton, Mallett and Locker) we will be left with "what's left over." I don't think we can safely assume that we are GOING to take a QB in the 1st round. And the more I read, the less and less I want Ryan Leaf...uh...I mean Mallett.

We really need to lose the last 2 games

One issue is Dallas and Arizona play each other. If Dallas could lose to Zona but beat Philly that would certainly help

Hopefully the 49ers can win the division and that takes them out of the top 10

So we could potentially move to number 5 overall, which would be striking distance to make a trade

[benskins26]

Ive posted this in other threads regarding this topic, but I'm not convinced that Carolina wants to make that pick, especially if that potential rookie pay scale isn't in place. In fact, I think we have a very good shot at getting him. If you look at the teams who pick ahead of us and need a QB, they're a lot closer to contending than we are, and would be better off with a McNabb veteran type than with a rookie and the learning curve. For example, there's a lot of young talent in San Fran, and if they had consistent play from the QB position, they could be a very good team instantly. Plus, Singletary doesnt have the time to wait for a QB to develop. Arizona is in similar situation- gotta appease your best player Larry, or lose him. Cincy needs a QB, so we might be competing with them, but I'm not sure they need one bad enough to give up a ton to get one right now.

[Forever21]

Actually it really isn't a case of "lazy brain" to think that. Look at the Rams this year on offense now with Bradford giving them a legitimate passing attack, Jackson has open holes to run through and the offense is putting up numbers they haven't in a while. While yes I do agree with your last part about 53 quality players, you can never underestimate the impact of a QB on how a team is doing in terms of better/worse

Great QB's can make poor lines and poor skill players look better than they are. Just like a great OL or great RB can make a bad QB seem good.

I'd take the great QB and build the OL from there every time.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

The Skins can't afford to trade away draft picks period. The roster is just way to thin.

They certainly CAN if they plan to start building the right way...accepting that they aren't ready to win and being OK with developing the young players that they have. This is about to be the deepest FA class in a very long time (maybe even since FA began in the early 1990s). I believe we can get to between 40-50M under the cap with a few more veteran cuts. You can very easily trade away picks and a body or two to get Luck and surround him with enough talent so that he can begin to safely take his lumps. Then, since you have the biggest piece of the puzzle in-house, you can slowly begin to build your team around him and you're not rushed by any time-tables like you might be with McNabb/Grossman/Beck at QB. If it takes 4 years, so what, you still have a 25-year old QB about to hit his prime and 2 solid drafts to supplement your team (assuming the 2 before that were mostly traded away).

I don't think, if you have ANY shot to trade up to get him, you can pass on a potential Manning or Brady. Look at how much more promising teams like the Rams and even Lions are mostly due to their young, franchise QBs. Bradford has a decent line, an aging but very good RB, and nothing else on offense and St. Louis fans are watching a team that could finish .500 a year after going 1-15 (forget about the playoffs since most people will minimize that due to their division).

Get a QB and alter your plan accordingly once you have him!! I also believe that Shanahan is more likely to stick around and be patient if this approach can be taken. I have to imagine it's more encouraging to rebuild when you have that potential star than if you're building with a journeyman.

Edit: One more note...if we somehow get Luck here in DC, I promise Allen/Snyder that all 4 members of my family will be wearing his jersey by July or August of 2011. That's an adult male, an adult female, and two kids jerseys you can mark down as a "projected sale" for your 2011 targets!

[benskins26]

Edit: One more note...if we somehow get Luck here in DC, I promise Allen/Snyder that all 4 members of my family will be wearing his jersey by July or August of 2011. That's an adult male, an adult female, and two kids jerseys you can mark down as a "projected sale" for your 2011 targets!

Ditto. One for me, my wife, and my unborn (and unconceived at this point) son.

[Duckus]

Andrew Luck is going to command an enormous contract. Our biggest hope is that the #1 pick is held by a cheap ass owner/team who is looking to trade out of that financial commitment.

What is Carolina's owner like? Are they the type of team willing to drop huge amounts of money on a rookie QB?

[#98QBKiller]

Good post

If Luck is not possible, get Darius in round 1 and Hudson in round 2 to shore up both lines a bit.

Work on fixing the o-line and d-line until the opportunity presents itself. This QB draft to me is Luck or nothing, similar to last year being Bradford or nothing

And yes, I would have also traded quite a bit for Bradford. It looks like those of us who wanted him last offseason are fairly vindicated, even though Trent has been terrific

---------- Post added December-21st-2010 at 10:25 PM ----------

Agree, but we were 4-3 at one point

There was still a very good chance at making the playoffs.

A 4-12 team wouldn't get us the top spot

And also, for those not wanting to trade the farm for Luck, this kid is the total package

Awesome video, that kid is the real deal.