Drafting a franchise QB from the Redskins draft slot: what 25 years of history tells us

[HigSkin]

Here are the teams currently ahead of us in draft order:

1. Carolina (2-12)

2. Denver (3-11)

3. Cincinnati (3-11)

4. Arizona (4-10)

5. Detroit (4-10)

6. Buffalo (4-10)

7. San Francisco (5-9)

8. Dallas (5-9)

The teams in bold are more-than-likely to be looking at a QB in the draft as well. I left Buffalo off due to Ryan Fitzpatrick looking pretty good there...

Considering there are four top QB prospects (Luck, Newton, Mallett and Locker) we will be left with "what's left over." I don't think we can safely assume that we are GOING to take a QB in the 1st round. And the more I read, the less and less I want Ryan Leaf...uh...I mean Mallett.

Good post here and original OP.

If we end up sliding in to the 5 or 6 spot, a good strategy would be to try and "pick off" either Cincy or AZ from the QB derby by offering up McNabb. That's assuming Carolina takes Luck and declines any trade offers. We might then have a choice of Locker, Newton or some other QB who comes out of no where. Always seems to be one after the combine. Otherwise, BPA if Shanny is not sold on any of the left-overs.

Reference if Newton is NFL ready....

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2010/11/herndon_nfl_not_sold_on_cam_ne.html

One NFL insider told me this week, however, that it's not such a done deal that Newton would be a first-rounder in 2011. Despite all the highlight-reel performances, he said the NFL still has questions about Newton, as much of what he does in Auburn's spread may not translate to an NFL offense. He likened Newton's case to that of Tim Tebow last year, except that while the question marks about Tebow were from the neck down, those surrounding Newton are from the neck up.

Of course, Denver drafted Tebow in the first round despite the questions about his delivery and mechanics.

With unique running ability for his size at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds, no comparisons really do Newton justice. He's more athletic than Tebow. He's bigger than Vince Young. He's a better runner than Donovan McNabb or Steve Young. He's a better passer than Michael Vick was at this stage in his development.

Anyone who questions Newton's arm didn't see the Kentucky game, when he threw a 33-yard bullet to Kodi Burns while leaping and falling sideways near the sideline.

But draft analyst Todd McShay said on ESPN recently that character issues will also come into play. "I talked to a scout and he said, 'We have to know that he's smart enough to play in this league at the quarterback position, and that he has the character to be our leader,'" McShay said.

CBS Sports' Rob Rang argued in a column this week that the way Newton has handled the scrutiny of the last two weeks could be a plus, not a minus, come draft time. "That type of focus will go a long way in convincing NFL scouts that he ... has the mental toughness to thrive under the microscope," Rang wrote.

Reference if Mallett is NFL ready.....

http://arkansasnews.com/2010/12/22/blog-is-ryan-mallett-ready-for-the-nfl/

“After breaking down all of Mallett’s film, we came away disappointed. His play actually got worse, not better, this season. After consulting with scouts from several NFL teams, who agreed with our evaluation, Mallett is an overrated prospect who definitely should return to Arkansas for his senior season.”

Reference comparison of Locker and Luck....

http://articles.sfgate.com/2010-10-28/sports/24540130_1_andrew-luck-and-jake-locker-nfl-draft-ready-stanford-washington-2011

Locker's attractiveness to NFL scouts has taken a bit of a bruising this year, too, although he is still considered a high draft choice. ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. wrote recently that Locker's 56.5 percent completion rate - down from last year's 58.2 - "will be a red flag for some scouts."

Dan Shonka, a former NFL scout who is now general manager and national scout for Our Lads Scouting Services, agrees.

"Locker is not nearly as accurate as Luck," he said. "That probably separates the two. Locker is a little more athletic, although Luck is a lot more mobile than people think."

Had Locker entered this year's draft, he probably would have been picked by the Buffalo Bills with the ninth selection, Shonka said. While his completion percentage is down, he has improved in other ways under Sarkisian, mainly in decision-making, according to Shonka.

"When he pulls the ball down, he's as dangerous as any quarterback out there," Shonka said. "His decision making is better - making the right read and deciding when to throw or not throw." In the next draft, "he'll still be in the top 10 picks somewhere," he said.

Luck would be the top pick if he comes out, Shonka said. "When you put together a profile for an NFL quarterback, it would look a lot like Luck. He's not only book-smart but football-smart. He hasn't been mollycoddled with (Jim) Harbaugh. He coaches those guys tough."

Locker has impressed Harbaugh with his grit as well as his talents. "He's a warrior out there," he said. "We've seen him get knocked down and bounce back up. We've seen him make some great throws. You can tell he's been a little hampered with the injuries, but he plays through it."

[UK Redskins Fan]

Trading all our top picks for the next couple of years in the hope of landing a franchise QB is such a stupid, idiotic plan it might just work. Or it might set us back another three years. To me, it is just more of the same "let's get the shiniest player no matter what the cost" mentality that has bedevilled the Redskins for so long.

The hit rate for our draft pick may only be 16% but the success rate for the top drafted QB is not exactly 100% either.

Here is a list of the top drafted QBs for the last 25 years, ignoring drafts where no QB was drafted in the top 3:

2010 Sam Bradford (1st overall pick)

2009 Matt Stafford (1st)

2008 Matt Ryan (3rd)

2007 JaMarcus Russell (1st)

2006 Vince Young (3rd)

2005 Alex Smith (1st)

2004 Eli Manning (1st)

2003 Carson Palmer (1st)

2002 David Carr (1st)

2001 Michael Vick (1st)

2000 N/A

1999 Tim Couch (1st)

1998 Peyton Manning (1st)

1997 N/A

1996 N/A

1995 Steve McNair (3rd)

1994 Heath Schuler (3rd)

1993 Drew Bledsoe (1st)

1992 N/A

1991 N/A

1990 Jeff George (1st)

1989 Troy Aikman (1st)

1988 N/A

1987 Vinny Testerverde (1st)

1986 Jim Everett (3rd)

You can decide for yourself how many of them are really worth giving up two 1st and two 2nd round picks. Peyton certainly and perhaps a few others besides but even when you get down to a really good QB like Carson Palmer you've got to ask is that enough to build a franchise around. The Bengals were not able to and there is little to suggest we would have been more successful.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

Alright so let's sacrifice our draft picks for one QB (that might be a bust).....then build the nucleus of this team through free agency.....not the draft....but free agency (that's worked out well the past decade. Great teams are built THROUGH THE DRAFT....Period. Despite how sexy that prospect looks...you need to build through the draft properly. I don't understand your logic. Why not capitalize on this great free agency class by building through the draft as well. More great players from both the FA period and draft class. Doing all that dumb ****** for Luck will set us back for years and I doubt Shanahan will do that.

I think where you and I differ is that I think we have a portion of our nucleus already in place...so I don't look at it as "We're building our nucleus through free agency".

I prefer to think of free agency as adding on to our existing nucleus.

[pjfootballer]

I'm willing to give up the farm for Luck primarily because this upcoming free agent class is so great.

Do what's necessary to get Luck and use Mr. Snyder's deep pockets to fill in the rest.

Heck, with the number of quality FAs out there, we can go along way towards rebuilding this thing in one offseason.

And this break the bank mentality has worked how in the last 10 seasons? Man, Redskins fans need to just sit tight for a season or two and let the FO rebuild this debacle. This inpatience is what gets us 4-12 to 9-7 records every year. Let's do it right for once. Don't reach for Luck. He's a great QB, but not at the expense of the rest of the roster.

[ABSTRACT]

And this break the bank mentality has worked how in the last 10 seasons? Man, Redskins fans need to just sit tight for a season or two and let the FO rebuild this debacle. This inpatience is what gets us 4-12 to 9-7 records every year. Let's do it right for once. Don't reach for Luck. He's a great QB, but not at the expense of the rest of the roster.

THANK YOU SIR!! I could not have explained it that briefly.

[HigSkin]

And this break the bank mentality has worked how in the last 10 seasons? Man, Redskins fans need to just sit tight for a season or two and let the FO rebuild this debacle. This inpatience is what gets us 4-12 to 9-7 records every year. Let's do it right for once. Don't reach for Luck. He's a great QB, but not at the expense of the rest of the roster.

I remember distinctly and not too long ago that Shanny said a guy like Bradford comes around once every 10 years. I doubt at this point, he feels Luck is worth the "reach". We're in good hands for reasonable decisions with the current staff.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

I remember distinctly and not too long ago that Shanny said a guy like Bradford comes around once every 10 years. I doubt at this point, he feels Luck is worth the "reach". We're in good hands for reasonable decisions with the current staff.

And Luck is widely considered to be a better prospect than Bradford for whatever that's worth. :2cents:

[Backpack3r]

Am I the only one who wants to draft Cam Newton? He will be on teh board by the time its our pick, there is no reason to trade all our draft picks to grab a qb who might be a bust anyway, when there are other great qb's who can be taken in the 1st round at our selection. We need those other draft picks for other holes

No one likes Cam newton? Im the only one who mentioned him in this topic

[bikie]

I'm all for getting Luck though I think there is zero chance of getting him unless we move up past carolina and arizona (unless the rumors of them possibly being interested in mcnabb are true) in the draft....

we are just dead in the water until we get a franchise QB (that can run our system)....

the one thing about this draft however is that the CBA should deliver a rookie pay scale, so striking out on a 1st round QB will not be the debilitating salary cap blow that it used to be...

[KevinthePRF]

Am I the only one who wants to draft Cam Newton? He will be on teh board by the time its our pick, there is no reason to trade all our draft picks to grab a qb who might be a bust anyway, when there are other great qb's who can be taken in the 1st round at our selection. We need those other draft picks for other holes

No one likes Cam newton? Im the only one who mentioned him in this topic

Just a case of athletic quarterback syndrome. I think Vince Young is the present example fresh in everyone's mind that quarterbacks that rely more on their athletic ability instead of their smarts just take a long time to develop, if ever.

[Backpack3r]

Just a case of athletic quarterback syndrome. I think Vince Young is the present example fresh in everyone's mind that quarterbacks that rely more on their athletic ability instead of their smarts just take a long time to develop, if ever.

Yeah but its just as much a risk to take him then it is to trade up and take Luck. Are Redskins fans seriously trying to make an argument for trading draft picks after all we have been through?

[KevinthePRF]

No argument there. I'm not for trading up for ANYONE....EVER. Trade down or stay pat would be my philosophy as an armchair GM, period.

[mistertim]

Are Redskins fans seriously trying to make an argument for trading draft picks after all we have been through?

Apparently Mike Shanahan is trying to make an argument for it seeing as how he tried pretty hard to trade up for Bradford last year but the Rams were basically dead set on taking him. Thats the question I have for people who are absolutely, 100% against trading up and say it stupid and a "Vinny-like" move. Do you then think that Shanahan is another Vinny? Do you think he is a bad evaluator of talent and doesn't know what he is doing considering the aforementioned tidbit about him trying to trade picks last year to move up?

[scskin]

Am I the only one who wants to draft Cam Newton? He will be on teh board by the time its our pick, there is no reason to trade all our draft picks to grab a qb who might be a bust anyway, when there are other great qb's who can be taken in the 1st round at our selection. We need those other draft picks for other holes

No one likes Cam newton? Im the only one who mentioned him in this topic

I think you're the only one. I like watching him play but I don't see it translating to the NFL.

[darrelgreenie]

I think the type of QB that Vick, Young, and Newton are will always be good enough to keep your NFL team average, because they can make plays to extend drives. However, my problem with all three of those QBs is that the physical skill level prior to the NFL was always such a huge advantage, that they do not develop as a thrower the way less gifted athletes do. They do not get the vital reps in their formative years where they are force to read defenses, diagnose coverages, step up into the pocket, and deliver passes. And you need an elite passer to win today.

There is a difference between extending plays with your feet, and being a running QB. Someone like Jay Cutler or Aaron Rogers is a good example, and both are also able to covert key 3rd downs with their legs. This is the type of QB I think Shanahan likes. While I don't necessarily advocate for him, I think Shanny is going to take a hard look at Jake Locker, who I think is a much easier project at QB than Newton. With Locker, you need to give him better time and get him making better decisions. With Newton, you are going to have to reinvent the way he sees the football field. Neither I think are wise picks for our team. But if we HAVE to take a boom or bust project, wouldn't we want to take the ultimate Shanahan clone, someone compared to Elway, over a QB best fit for a zone-read option style offense?

I think you're discounting Vick and Vince's instant production and winning.

I think if Vince was drafted by a team with a staff and HC/OC that actually wanted him and supported he would be one of the top QBs in the NFL.

Prior to getting hurt Vince was one of the top QBs in the league.

But, either way i doubt we would draft Cam Newton.

I think Shanahan would like Locker too have you seen my sig?

There were rumors last (from Brock Huard its posted in the draft thread) that Shanahan liked Locker then.

[SkinsFTW]

Sorry but I didn't read the whole thread.

If it's 16% hit 84% miss at our spot for the #3 QB chosen then what is the % for picking first QB or 2nd QB? Is it really that much higher with Harrington, Russel, Quinn, Couch, Leaf, Shuler, George, Young, Smith, Carr, and all the rest who were 1st or 2nd QB's selected?

[darrelgreenie]

No one likes Cam newton? Im the only one who mentioned him in this topic

Love Cam Newton, but he doesn't appear to be a system fit.

The offense would have to be drasitclly altered to suit his skill set.

With the right coach in the right scheme he seems like a nice prospect.

[Rufus T Firefly]

I think you're discounting Vick and Vince's instant production and winning.

I think if Vince was drafted by a team with a staff and HC/OC that actually wanted him and supported he would be one of the top QBs in the NFL.

Prior to getting hurt Vince was one of the top QBs in the league.

Young is, and has been, a lousy QB with good legs. He just happened to be on a team that could win with defense and a running game, so people pretended he had some magic ability to win games.

[The Tris]

Vince Young has the best RB and one of the most complete OL in football. That, along with option packages and zone read plays, I would consider significant support for Young.

[darrelgreenie]

Vince Young has the best RB and one of the most complete OL in football. That, along with option packages and zone read plays, I would consider significant support for Young.

So having talent should be held against a QB success?

Didn't Todd Collins have the same talent the year Vince went on a 7 game winning streak?

And by support i was refering more to be wanted by Jeff Fisher everyone knows Vince was forced on Fisher by the owner.

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 08:12 PM ----------

Young is, and has been, a lousy QB with good legs. He just happened to be on a team that could win with defense and a running game, so people pretended he had some magic ability to win games.

Wow well in that case you must be right huh?

Stats, wins, production and pro-bowl be damned.

[Rufus T Firefly]

So having talent should be held against a QB success?

Didn't Todd Collins have the same talent the year Vince went on a 7 game winning streak?

And by support i was refering more to be wanted by Jeff Fisher everyone knows Vince was forced on Fisher by the owner.

I assume you mean Kerry Collins, and you might want to look up the 13-3 season he put up while Young was out.

Wow well in that case you must be right huh?

Stats, wins, production and pro-bowl be damned.

He has wins, as I mentioned. he has no stats or production as a QB to be proud of. And Pro Bowl? Seriously? LOL.

[dy44]

Which is why we should have started IRing guys and putting in younger guys earlier in the season. As soon as we were mathematically eliminated we should have started tanking.

No one likes to hear that but there is NO reason to keep winning games once you know you won't make the playoffs. I can't root against this team but I don't want us to win these next games because it does zero for the team going forward.

We were eliminated with the loss to Tampa!

[The Tris]

The Titans brought in Mike Heimerdinger specifically to develop Vince Young. If you remember, Heimerdinger was instrumental in getting Steve McNair to some of his biggest seasons.

Before that, they brought in noted college QB guru Norm Chow. A failed experiment, but a move not the less to develop Young.

They have surrounded him with coaching support. While I agree that Fisher disagreed with Bud Adams about drafting him, the Titans have in no way not tried to help Young develop as a player.

I would considering 1) giving a young QB a strong OL, 2) a productive running game, and 3) hiring multiple OCs to specifically develop the QB as significant support.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Below are the first QBs taken in the draft the past 20 years. Why is it every year there is a player, this year it's Andre Luck, who is apparently moot from the below similar crap shoot as shown in the OP about the second or third QB taken?

Jeff George *

Dan McGwire

David Klingler

Drew Bledsoe (Pro Bowl, 1 Super Bowl appearance) *

Heath Shuler

Steve McNair (Pro Bowl, 1 Super Bowl appearance)

Tony Banks **

Jim Drunkenmiller

Peyton Manning (HOFer, 2 Super Bowl appearances) *

Tim Couch *

Chad Pennington

Michael Vick (Pro Bowler) *

David Carr *

Carson Palmer (Pro Bowler) *

Eli Manning (Pro Bowler, 1 Super Bowl appearance) *

Alex Smith *

Vince Young (Pro Bowler)

Jamarcus Russell *

Matt Ryan (Pro Bowler 2010?)

Matthew Stafford *

Sam Bradford *

* first overall selection

** second round selection

The bad QBs in that list were generally taken for bad reasons. As I've demonstrated with my franchise QB model, one can do much better than the NFL has done, projecting future franchise NFL QBs. This model is based on college QB stats and tells you at a glance that:

• Sam Bradford will be a franchise NFL QB
  
• Matt Schaub will be a franchise NFL QB
  
• Philip Rivers will be a franchise NFL QB, and will be better than Eli Manning, picked ahead of him in the same draft
  
• JaMarcus Russell will bust
  
• Vince Young will bust
  
• David Carr will bust
  
• Heath Shuler will bust
  
• Patrick Ramsey will bust
  
• Jason Campbell will probably bust
  

... just as examples. The model is not infallible, but it's a good filter to weed out stupidity and hype among highly touted QBs, while elevating players like Schaub (a 3rd round pick).

The NFL draft is not a crap shoot. It's just got a lot of crap shooters disguised as NFL scouts and GMs. Specifically, guys who trust their "gut" more than statistics when it comes to evaluating QBs, or who are using the wrong statistical models.

Looking at the 2011 draft, there's only one QB worth drafting in the first round: Andrew Luck. Using stats alone, I actually don't like him nearly as much as Sam Bradford or Philip Rivers, two guys who crushed my statistical model. The problem with Luck is that he's got only two seasons of data, and one season of really outstanding stats. That's a risk factor, and I've probably been listening too much to scouts who are over the moon with Luck. Going strictly by my model, I'm not actually certain that Luck will be a franchise QB. This is because he has not turned in two years of passing grades for the model.

But, Andrew Luck is considerably better than the rest of the contenders for the first round. For example, these guys will all bust:

• Cam Newton: brutal bust
  
• Ryan Mallet: stats say he is a short-bus QB who had better be groomed over 2 - 3 years in the NFL, otherwise will bust badly like Heath Shuler
  
• Jake Locker: shouldn't be sniffing the first round, and will bust badly if drafted in first round
  

I keep hearing that this is an outstanding year for QBs, but I don't see it. I see one guy who is probably an NFL franchise QB, and three guys who I'm certain will bust (if taken high in the first round), without even seeing them play.

I still think the smart play is Rex Grossman as starter for the next four years, but I need to see two more games to be sure.

My main beef with Grossman is that I think he's got the talent to take the team to the playoffs, but maybe not enough to win a Super Bowl. This is where Andrew Luck is seductive. He might be "that guy" like Bradford, Rivers, Manning and Brady. No question his upside is much higher than Grossman, and he's so much younger.

You pick Andrew Luck if you want to win a Super Bowl or two, between years 5 and 10. You pick Grossman if you want any chance of making the playoffs in the next 3 years.

Andrew Luck might get Shanahan fired, however. The team will suck for a while, and the fans will turn on Shanahan even more than they already have. Snyder will fire Shanahan, new coach will come in, team will continue to lose, Andrew Luck will become a free agent, sign with the Eagles, and win a Super Bowl or two between years 5 and 10.

So, that's the problem.

[The Tris]

What did your model say about Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy? I didn't like either, but for very different reasons.

Curious what your approach says about 2nd and 3rd round QBs (where I think there is a lot of value this year).