Andrew Luck theory: After the bye, did Shanahan tank the Redskins season on purpose? Was there hidden purpose in the McNabb extension?

[dallasfan]

i also kind of suspect that true "tanking" goes on far less than fans actually think.

I actually believe that true tanking doesn't go on in the NFL. One player simply doesn't make a difference and most coaches believe losing leads to more losing, while winning leads to more winning. However, I think it happens all the time in the NBA (if I was an owner or GM, I wouldn't be against it). In basketball, one player makes a huge difference, especially front court players.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

I'd prefer it if it were the Ryan Mallet conspiracy theory

At risk of hijacking my own thread, why Mallet over Luck?

I don't have my own direct opinion yet, but it's hard to avoid the variety of scouts saying that Luck is at least as good as Bradford, possibly better and more durable, and some think he's the best college player or QB they've scouted in a decade.

The turnaround for Stanford has been remarkable. After 2 years of Harbaugh, they were 5-7. After 2 years of Andrew Luck, they are 11-1. Harbaugh is a hot commodity right now, but without Andrew Luck, he has a losing record.

Based on Stanford's tradition of losing during the past decade, it appears that Andrew Luck offers a +6 differential* in games won, in a 12-game season. Translated to the NFL's 16-game season, that's a +8 differential. That's taking a 4-12 team to 12-4 in two years.

I'm not saying that this will happen, but the statistics for games won tend to support the argument of scouts that this guy is a once-a-decade guy. It's plausible that he could reach top 4 in the NFL in two years and then stay there for a decade or more. The last guys projected so high, who lived up to their hype, were Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. (Rivers probably exceeded his hype.)

That said, Sam Bradford's 2008 stats exceed anything that Luck has done. Bradford 2008 vs Luck 2010, in my QB model, says that Bradford is better.

*Mallet may have similarly elevated the Razorbacks over 2008 record, but the Razorbacks have had a stronger football program. They were 8-4 in 2007, for example, and 10-3 in 2006. So, their 10-2 record in 2010 is impressive, but less startling than Stanford's record. With Stanford, it seems to be about one guy: Andrew Luck.

[artmonkforHOF]

stay off the grassy knoll, it's dangerous up there.

[Mahons21]

I'd love to have Andrew as a Redskin next year, but this conspiracy, though intriguing, isn't very realistic.

But realistically the Redskins should trade down not up, acquire more picks, and get in mid to late 1st round position, to take the top interior o-line prospect.

[brasi]

I am not sure I agree with your post, but awesome job. Well written and logical.

I hope that we amass as many picks as we can and stay with McNabb at a good value. The most successful teams seem to be young...the Patriots are always beastly and they consistently have tons of draft picks that infuse talent and youth onto their roster every year.

I refuse to judge Shanallen on one year, but by this time next season, their version of the Redskins should be at least taking shape...

We have lots of holes to fill and I trust their football minds more than my own...but I think going with multiple picks, and developing our own players, is an idea whose time has come.

[TheLongshot]

Mike Shanahan famously benched McNabb in the closing minutes of the Lions game: a clear demonstration of frustration with his starting QB.

Two weeks later, and with the bye to think about it, the Redskins gave McNabb a huge contract extension in the hours before the Eagles game. On closer examination, the contract apparently gives the team annual opportunities to release McNabb at little cost.

So, what happened over the bye?

Uh, that was covered at the time. After that day, signing bonuses for new deals would be spread over the length of the contract rather than in 2010. McNabb knew that the deal on the table (which had been there unchanged since the beginning of the season) would likely change and not in McNabb's favor. So, he took the deal.

We know what has happened *since* the bye: the Redskins went from possible contender to a blundering mess. Eagles blowout was the opening act. A surprising win against the Titans is followed by a loss to the Vikings and a blowout by the Giants. The best defensive player is held back with a mysterious achilles injury. The starting left tackle is held out of the Giants starting lineup, in addition to Haynesworth. Then Haynesworth is suspended, after more friction with Shanahan.

Well, I never viewed this team as a "possible contender". Playoffs? In a relatively weak NFC it was possible, but most of us would be kidding ourselves to see this team doing all that much in the playoffs.

What's going on here? A lot of smart people are starting to call out Shanahan and Bruce Allen for fielding a team whose progress from the Zorn era is hard to measure. I'm not one of them, for a variety of reasons.

One reason is a simple theory. What if Shanahan and Allen are a whole lot smarter than anyone dares imagine? What if Shanahan concluded over the bye that McNabb was simply not going to be "that guy" (i.e., Shanahan's next John Elway), and that the Redskins needed to define a strategy for landing the next franchise QB of the future, as priority #1? What if the target turned out to be Andrew Luck? What then?

Considering that it is a long time til the draft and that I doubt the head coach has done much scouting for next year's draft, I'd advise you to take off your tin foil hat.

They won't win the race for the #1 pick in the draft. But, the Redskins might land a top 6 pick. And, when you're trying to trade up to #1, it sure helps to be able to throw Donovan McNabb into your offer for the #1 pick. Especially with that nice contract extension you arranged over the bye.

The way to trade for the #1 pick is to offer a good QB with a good contract to the team holding the #1 pick, as part of the package. That's real value. Now think about that contract again. A curious contract by its timing, or an incredibly savvy play, looking months ahead to the draft?

Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen, you've got my vote of confidence. Especially if I'm right.

As I said above, there was a perfectly good explination for the timing of the signing of the contract that doesn't involve you contorting yourself into this "theory". Particularly when no one knows yet how next year's draft (if there is even going to be one) is going to shake down.

[zoony]

At risk of hijacking my own thread, why Mallet over Luck?

I don't have my own direct opinion yet, but it's hard to avoid the variety of scouts saying that Luck is at least as good as Bradford, possibly better and more durable, and some think he's the best college player or QB they've scouted in a decade. .

No other reason than Mallet has been on my radar since his first year at Arkansas. I just think he has all the tools. He's tall, incredibly quick release, and he throws a beautiful ball. He's got some decent footwork, too. This guy has Tom Brady 2.0 written all over him imo.

That said, I haven't even seen Luck play this season. All I know about him is what I've read. So really, just kind of talking out of my ass.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

hahahahahaha what?

I wouldn't draft Mallet on the first DAY of the draft, let alone the first round. You pretty much got the guy's skillset wrong too - he has an incredibly sloooooow release, terrible footwork, terrible decision-making and has character issues. He's also a statue in the pocket. Now, Shanny's a guy who can make something out of nothing with QBs (see Griese and Plummer), and I'd burn a 3rd or 4th on him if I had Reid as my coach, or had the Colts or Patriots offensive system, because he has a hell of an arm, and he has charisma. But other than that, I wouldn't touch the guy.

This guy is Jamarcus Russell 2.0. If he's as good as Jason Campbell I'll be shocked.

[Conn]

I won't be as disrespectful in my post as Imperium, but I kinda agree with him. I'm pretty positive that I've read over and over that Mallet has a slow release and isn't mobile. That's not really going to work here, but he definitely could be one of those guys who needs to develop under the right coach.

[Rodriggo]

You're giving this FO waaaaaay too much credit.

For starters, at the bye they were nowhere near the top of the draft and they're still not. They're currently 10th and there is a 0% chance Luck is available by then. Heck, there's a 0% chance he'd be available by the 5th pick assuming they continue to lose.

Plus McNabb has zero trade value and even if he did it would be nowhere near the top of the first round of any draft. The Redskins as a team have almost no trade value so moving up in the draft is going to be close to impossible.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Uh, that was covered at the time. After that day, signing bonuses for new deals would be spread over the length of the contract rather than in 2010. McNabb knew that the deal on the table (which had been there unchanged since the beginning of the season) would likely change and not in McNabb's favor. So, he took the deal.

Hey, cool, a factual rebuttal. That's rare. Points to you!

So, yes, you make an excellent point. See: CBA, Article XXIV, Section 7 (Valuation of Player Contracts), ( (Signing Bonuses), (iv)(18):

(18) Any increase in a player's Salary for the current League Year, if the NFL Management Council does not receive notice of the salary terms of such an executed extended or renegotiated contract prior to 4:00 p.m. (New York Time) on the Monday of the tenth week of the regular season.

Analysis: The deadline for adding non-prorated salary to a player's contract is monday of week 10. After that, any increase in salary gets prorated as though it is a signing bonus.

[zoony]

hahahahahaha what?

I wouldn't draft Mallet on the first DAY of the draft, let alone the first round. You pretty much got the guy's skillset wrong too - he has an incredibly sloooooow release, terrible footwork, terrible decision-making and has character issues. He's also a statue in the pocket. Now, Shanny's a guy who can make something out of nothing with QBs (see Griese and Plummer), and I'd burn a 3rd or 4th on him if I had Reid as my coach, or had the Colts or Patriots offensive system, because he has a hell of an arm, and he has charisma. But other than that, I wouldn't touch the guy.

This guy is Jamarcus Russell 2.0. If he's as good as Jason Campbell I'll be shocked.

Wow. Here is some video of him rolling the pocket and throwing deadly accurate on the run, off his back foot, stepping up in the pocket, stepping into his throw, keeping his left arm tight, and what, imo, is a quick release, and even running the ball in for TD's.

OurYaWeYlQw

That said, you can believe whatever the **** you want to believe

By the way, for anyone interested in NOT acting like a flaming know it all 21 year old douche, pay particular attention to his roll-outs. e.g. around the 1:10 mark in the video. However, if you want to act like a douche, just skip this post.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Hey, cool, a factual rebuttal. That's rare. Points to you!

So, yes, you make an excellent point. See: CBA, Article XXIV, Section 7 (Valuation of Player Contracts), ( (Signing Bonuses), (iv)(18):

Or, maybe you aren't right. Hard to tell.

Football Outsiders has a writeup on the contract extension and specifically says:

Without the mechanism (because the deal was executed after Week 10), the special teams incentive would have been treated as signing bonus ...

It's an odd comment, because the deal was disclosed shortly before MNF on Monday of Week 10. The Week 10 CBA deadline is specifically 4pm Monday. It sure looks like they made the deadline, but Football Outsiders says otherwise.

[Tastes Like Chicken]

I thought about this thread today, and how our kickers must be in on it.

[Fat Stupid Loser]

Is Luck even that good? I didn't see many Stanford games, and he's only 27 in YPG.

Yeah, he is. And he is smart. I want a freakin smart QB. I want a Pennington with his shoulder intact. Luck is that kind of QB.

[Beans]

Uh-Oh! Looks like Florio was reading ExtremeSkins again! (Or stealing NFL Network's material) That's Florio's M.O.

It's not worth tanking to get Mallet or Newton. Those guys will be stinkers. Skins need Luck, literally and figuratively!

Unfortunately, Luck will go 1st overall, so he is not a possibility. I'm scared. Real scared. This could be another "Candle" moment in the draft that sets back our beloved franchise years!

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/12/19/are-redskins-tanking-to-draft-a-quarterback/

"The Washington Redskins’ decision this week to bench Donovan McNabb in favor of Rex Grossman has a lot of people asking, What is Mike Shanahan thinking?

Perhaps he’s thinking about drafting a quarterback in 2011 — and thinking that losing the final three games gives him a better chance of acquiring the quarterback he wants.

That was the subject of a discussion this morning on NFL Network, focusing on whether Shanahan is throwing the rest of the season so he can get a high draft pick next year.

“They’re really thinking about drafting a quarterback,” NFL Network reporter Michael Lombardi said. “The move to Rex Grossman, I’ve been told reliably by people in the Washington organization, has nothing to do with him being the quarterback of the future. It’s about them being in position next year to draft a quarterback.”"

---------- Post added December-19th-2010 at 10:45 AM ----------

Yeah, he is. And he is smart. I want a freakin smart QB. I want a Pennington with his shoulder intact. Luck is that kind of QB.

This. After watching McFlabb and Candle, some intelligence at the position would be nice. Something I know Mallet and Newton lack. Hell, Newton was caught cheating like 3 times at Florida. And you know he was more than likely only taking "football player" classes. Can you say mental midget? As for Mallet, have you ever heard that guy speak? He sounds like Ben Roethlisberger's down syndrome afflicted twin.

P.S. I was also 100% right about Bradford. I can't believe the Skins didn't make that happen. Dude was part Native American. Imagine the marketing possibilities!

[IHOPSkins]

I love your posts because they are so well thought out and interesting......

AtlanatSF just created Hope again when All Was Lost

I don't know wether to thank him or commit an act of agression "Gimme something to Break" (2 Draft picks to the Eagles for a "Rent a Franchise" :mad:)

Just Kidding

Jimmy Johnson tanked a whole season and won some SBs.....And out-thinking the Media isn't hard to do

"Go Cow...........No!....OK"

"No....NO....NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.......ok"

Beer Me!

[whlinder]

We'll be drafting Jake Locker.

He sucks, but we'll draft him. Watch.

[Beans]

We'll be drafting Jake Locker.

He sucks, but we'll draft him. Watch.

Nooooooooooooooo! Now I won't be able to sleep until the draft! Thanks whlinder!

[WhoRUSupposed2Be]

Just when you though ATL was losing it with his post... something like this plays out and you see the logic behind it

[Larry Brown #43]

I don't believe Shanny tanked the season, but there are some elements of the OP I can go along with. I definitely think--especially now in retrospect--that the contract extension for McNabb was a ruse of some sort. The contract is so easily voidable and tradeable--it just doesn't look like the contract of a guy you're planning to build around.

They realized the only way they could get anything in return for McNabb at season's end was to sign him to an extension, otherwise he'd be a free agent. But they protected themselves by making the contract super team-friendly.

I now believe they had decided to move on from McNabb around the time of the extension, but again, they wanted to ensure that they wouldn't lose him outright and get nothing back. To me, an underreported part of this whole story is the apparent failure of McNabb's agent. He never should have advised McNabb to sign that contract without more guaranteed money and an assurance that he'd remain the starter next year. It's a one-sided contract with little benefit to McNabb. Which is good for us, but I really think McNabb's agent failed him here.

I think we'll try to get the best trade deal possible for McNabb after this season, but I think the number of potential suitors is very small--maybe two or three teams. Unlike the OP, I don't think McNabb will help us move up to the top pick. I think that's a separate issue from the McNabb trade. A team holding the #1 or #2 pick probably won't be interested in taking McNabb off our hands. Carolina or Cincinnati? I don't see either one being interested in McNabb, and they will likely be #1 and #2 in the draft order, respectively. And then there's Detroit, who's set with Stafford. So I don't see a link between a future McNabb trade and one of the top picks in the draft.

I suppose Carolina could suprise us all and decide to go for McNabb, but that seems very unlikely to me.

[SkinsHokieFan]

How does ASF ALWAYS hit homeruns?

Well maybe not always, that thread about Sean Taylor was awful back in 2007, but other then that he is spot on.

Kim Helton sucks? Check

Matt Schuab will be terrific. Check

JC is a coach killer? Check

[Chicken Fried]

Sounds similar to my conspiracy theory about trading for McNabb last year and signing him to an extension and then trading him for the #1 to get Bradford. Let's hope it works out this time.

[Mad Mike]

After watching McFlabb and Candle, some intelligence at the position would be nice. Something I know Mallet and Newton lack. Hell, Newton was caught cheating like 3 times at Florida. And you know he was more than likely only taking "football player" classes. Can you say mental midget? As for Mallet, have you ever heard that guy speak? He sounds like Ben Roethlisberger's down syndrome afflicted twin.

P.S. I was also 100% right about Bradford. I can't believe the Skins didn't make that happen. Dude was part Native American. Imagine the marketing possibilities!

I hate this thread but this is a good post.

I agree 100% on brains being a priority for a QB. And I also agree that you can tell a lot about a QBs likely success in the NFL by hearing him speak. I've never heard Mallet but if he is as you say, scratch him from the list. He may beat the odds and be the greatest QB ever but I wouldn't bet the franchise on it and that is what we would be doing.

I was also a Bradford fan (to put it mildly) but drafting him was not something that we could just "make happen". The Rams wanted him and NEEDED him and were not going to let him slip through their fingers no matter what we offered. Some things are just beyond your control.

[FrFan]

Another piece added to the conspiracy theory. Didn't noticed McNabb jersey is sold at half price.