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The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc


BRAVEONAWARPATH

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Oubre is doing his thing. Being super disruptive guarding the ball, letting it fly without hesitation, and getting to the FT line. I'm not worried about Oubre at all. He's an NBA player with unshakable confidence. He's going to make it. I'm worried about Sheldon McClellan and Aaron White. They were supposed to be like 14th and 15th men, and McClellan has a chance at some burn given how young our back court and wing depth is. But they aren't showing us anything. White is overmatched, he doesn't look like an NBA player yet.

 

From everything I've been reading, it seems like White has a major up hill battle.  Doesn't help his cause when a dude like Danuel House comes in and looks/plays like he belongs. 

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Sully 1 year 6 million >> Jason Smith or Andrew Nicholson 3 years 5 million per.

That is a no risk high upside chance Toronto took, similar to what they did with Bismack last summer. Filled a major hole in their front court in the process.

Our FO is so friggin risk averse. I'm not sure most of the fanbase realizes this yet, but there is a deep stat-driven approach to the process of player acquisition and development in place here that ultimately leads to a very narrow and overly cautious approach to player acquisition. You can see how it played out in the Jason Smith signing, for example. We picked him because some stat nerd determined he hits 20 footers off pick and pops at an elite level and we want someone to fill that specific role in our offense. But then two things would happen:

1 - there would frequently be a disconnect in how the FO would envision a player be used upon acquisition, and how Randy's staff would actually use them

2 - focusing on specific skills and roles only caused a lack of holistic vision about players and the roster as a whole that is necessary to hit home runs and build a truly great team.

Our FO loses sight of the forest through the trees too often. Jason Smith might be a better fit for hitting pick and pop long 2s with Wall and Beal running off high screens. But this isn't football. Basketball players aren't total specialists and Sully is a far better overall player than Smith.

That tunnel-vision is evident in all of our draft picks but the Oubre one, which to my knowledge, is the only time during the Wall era where the FO truly swung for the fences on upside.

2011 - we need a big that can run and finish to partner with Wall and this up tempo system we want to implement--Vesely hits at X rate inside 3 feet on catch and finish situations and is in the Xth percentile athletically, he's perfect. Nevermind he can't shoot from any range, has no go to offensive skills that can keep him on the floor on a bad team, doesn't rebound well, and has a body that is years away from being NBA ready. They tuned all of those warning flags out because he had a few very specific traits they were looking for.

2012 - Beal over Drummond/Lillard. Barnes over them too if you can believe the reports of how close we were to picking him 3rd. We need a SG who can shoot and Beal is a true SG in the Xth percentile and he's clean off the floor, blah blah blah. Nevermind the fact that Lillard was a sensational college player and he's proven he can play with another big, ball dominant lead guard because he shoots so well. And nevermind Drummond had sky high upside and he was in buy low mode after a distracting, disastrous season at UConn.

2013 - Porter = safest pick at the #3 slot despite there being all kinds of raw, high upside bigs out there.

In each of those cases, an FO led by people with superior instincts for player acquisition to cut through the noise and see the big picture would have probably chosen differently. They would have read the flags with Vesely and foreseen he wasn't ready for the NBA and wasn't going to thrive on a crap team. They'd have envisioned the potential that Drummond and Lillard had, etc.

We also hamstrung our FO's ability to make creative and riskier moves by settling for a weak ass coaching staff that could not integrate players who lacked rigidly defined and compatible skills. There is no excuse for holding onto what was widely considered one of the weakest staffs in the league for four friggin seasons.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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The fact that we still have no quality backup 2 guard after 4 years and not a single injury free year to Brad is disconcerting. So basically we are where we were last year, hoping injuries dont happen to our very injury prone players without any sort of backup plan. ( Beal, Webster, Anderson, Nene, Dudley, Gooden, and Humphries all came in as injury question marks last year. )

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Eddie with the game winner. Nice game from him. Aaron White also made an impressive play on that second to last bucket. Cut from the perimeter and handled a lousy pass and finished the layup in traffic to tie the game. Showed off some hands.

Still not ready for the NBA yet though.

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http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/otto-porter-jr/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/bradley-beal/

538s CARMELO player forecast system favors Otto over Beal. I suspect it maybe needs a good kicking or something.

 

Ian Mahinmi:

Rotation Player

5yr market value: 36.9 mil

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/ian-mahinmi/

 

Andrew Nicholson

Scrub

5yr market value: -8.6 mil

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/andrew-nicholson/

 

Jason Smith

Defensive Specialist

5yr market  value: -7.6 mil

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jason-smith/

 

Trey Burke

Offensive Specialist

5yr market value: 32 mil

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/trey-burke/

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He's a gym rat who gets the most out of his athletic abilities and plays the game the right way.

 

always felt "plays the game the right way" was code for "he's not good and this is the best thing I can say about him"

 

 

caught up on the summer league games. Oubre's play was streaky. Very good at getting to the rim. Jumpshot form looks better and more consistent, but they didn't actually go in. Some moments he was the pest we need on defense, others he couldn't stay in front of players that likely won't be in the league next year. Hopefully that jumper improves, seems like they're depending on him to be Otto's prime back up.

Edited by StillUnknown
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The only reason to watch the summer league is to see if Eddie can hit open shots and drive if the shot isnt there. In all seriousness, he may be playing for the backup 2 position. ( its scary, but his competition for that coveted role is Thornton and Sato/Burke). Or to watch and see if Oubre can hit an open 3 and lock down his defender 1 on 1. So far, they have been mildly successful. Oubre needs to learn how to shoot with his right hand. His handles have looked better though.

 

I think the team should have never gotten rid of Glen Rice. He could do a bit of everything and knew how to get to the line. Wittman saw to it that he's out of the league, but I think we were all tired of Randy's doghouse shtick years ago. It most certainly didnt help Otto, Seraphin, Ves, or Eddie.

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