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ESPN The Mag: Skins go 9-7, make playoffs

MattFancy

By MattFancy
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MattFancy

MattFancy

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So the ESPN the Magazine NFL issue came out on Friday and they have the Redskins going 9-7 and being the #5 seed.

The NFC East goes like this: Eagles (9-7), Redskins (9-7), Giants (9-7), Cowboys (8-8)

They simulated the season 10,000 times and took the number of wins that happened the most often. The Skins average wins were 9.2, the same as the Eagles. Ron Jaworksi also picks the Skins to be a Wild Card team as well.

Under the Skins prediction it has a best/worst case scenario:

Best-case scenario: Donovan McNabb, in lifting last year's 16th ranked passing game, is one of many aging additions that rise up for their last hurrahs.

Worst-case scenario: The Skins don't find a partner for WR Santana Moss, then discover the 2006 Pro Bowl roster isn't the best option in 2010.

Gruden also says that McNabb will love the protection he gets from Williams and Brown.

Nice to see some optimism from someone other than fellow fans!!

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Hitman21ST

Hitman21ST

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Gruden also says that McNabb will love the protection he gets from Williams and Brown.

Well, seeing Williams' performance against two of the best defenses in the Ravens and Jets, and Brown's against the Jets, I would say that we've found bookends for a while.

Even Capers looked pretty good against Jason Taylor.

On a side note, why was Rex Ryan playing Taylor so late in the game?

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bigyim

bigyim

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Not to be a Debbie Downer, but didn't another magazine pull this nonsense last year, where they gave every team in the NFCE a 9-7 or 8-8 record?

Seems like a cop-out to me...but, it would be nice if this "prediction" actually came to be.

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Command The 414

Command The 414

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going 9-7 and not making the playoffs is imho a good season for it being the 1st for Shanahan and McNabb and alot of others as well, but making the playoffs going 9-7 would be the icing on the cake imo....but I don't see the NFC East going slightly over .500 though...I see at least 1 team (hopefully the Skins) going at worse 10-6 but more likely 11-5

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2cents

2cents

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That would be great especially after all off season it has been assumed that they are going to be the first team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium and blah, blah. They looked horrible last night. We have been inconsistant, but they just looked awful last night.

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jnhay

jnhay

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I'm sure they're 10,000 simulated seasons don't factor in injuries. So if everyone can stay relatively healthy I say 9-7 is very doable.

Why wouldn't they factor in injuries? I'm sure they have random numbers they can put towards injury probabilities and affects too.

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TheShredder

TheShredder

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Predictions are guessing, plain and simple.

Facts are:

You cannot predict future events based on practice field performances.

The gauge that is used to form opinions should be logic that is based on all the same information. Rookies are an unknown commodity until the later part of their first season (with WR being the most unpredictable). Practice speed and Preseason game speed is not the same as the Regular Season. Not revealing scheme tendencies on both sides of the ball is very important with Preseason games. The first half of the first game in the regular season is truly the only tape you have in Week 1 that matters. Slow starting but talented teams do overcome those slow starts, consistently. Injuries are paramount. For all these reasons I refuse to pay any attention to predictions....

We all simply have opinions.

My opinion lends me some intuition that there will be a sub .500 team in the NFC East. There will be a team that will record more wins then expected. A second team in the East should get a Wild Card berth.

Dallas starts slow and struggles to live up to expectations.

Philly has some success after growing pains in the later part of the season.

NY falls below .500

Washington is the 2010 'Worst to First' story.

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LD0506

LD0506

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If Dallas goes 8-8 I want a front row seat for the "fall of rome" that is going to take place...new coach new staff maybe a new QB, Jerry's head exploding would be great!!!!!

There's an idea for halftime at a Skins SB in his new stadium :ols:

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Heidenreich

Heidenreich

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Our schedule is brutal too. This could be our downfall, even if we are much improved.

Dallas' is much harder IMO. I know we play mostly the same teams, but our harder games are at least at home.

Dallas has to go to Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Indy. Throw in the three division games, their only gimme road game is Arizona.

Our road schedule is signifigantly easier. St louis, Chicago, Detroit, Tennessee, Jacksonville

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HigSkin

HigSkin

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Dallas' is much harder IMO. I know we play mostly the same teams, but our harder games are at least at home.

Dallas has to go to Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Indy. Throw in the three division games, their only gimme road game is Arizona.

Our road schedule is signifigantly easier. St louis, Chicago, Detroit, Tennessee, Jacksonville

Strength of Schedule for NFCE:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/21479/2010-strength-of-schedule

Dallas #3, Giants #7, Skins #8 and Eagles #9.

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Heidenreich

Heidenreich

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Strength of Schedule for NFCE:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/21479/2010-strength-of-schedule

Dallas #3, Giants #7, Skins #8 and Eagles #9.

Straight numbers, yes, that's correct. But you have to factor in where you play those teams, if you believe in home field advantage at all.

IMO, You would much rather have your harder schedule at home. It has to be easier to beat the Colts, Vikings, or Packers at home. A team like Detroit or the Rams should be easy anywhere (Zorn coached teams not withstanding).

So, when you dive into that, the Cowboys SOS this year is #3 at 139-117. Break that down home and away:

Home Schedule: 60-68

Away Schedule: 79-49

30 games over .500 for their road opponents. Brutal.

Washington, on the other hand, gets their difficult games at home:

Home: 79-49

Away: 55-73!

I'd much rather have the road schedule where your opponents are a combined 18 games UNDER .500

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Califan007 The Constipated

Califan007 The Constipated

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I'm sure they're 10,000 simulated seasons don't factor in injuries. So if everyone can stay relatively healthy I say 9-7 is very doable.

Only thing is, they didn't do the simulations JUST for the Redskins...they did it for every team in the league. So none of the other teams would have had injuries in the simulations, either, so it more or less evens out.

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CliffBattles

CliffBattles

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If Dallas goes 8-8 I want a front row seat for the "fall of rome" that is going to take place...new coach new staff maybe a new QB, Jerry's head exploding would be great!!!!!

I have this fear if Dallas doing poorly, and them hiring Kyle Shanahan as head coach. If the Skins offense is productive, he will get offers in a couple years. I hope Dad can persuade him to stay.

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