50 years from now, is the US still #1?

[Larry]

Just wondering, today at lunch.

Is the US still the #1 country in the world (by whatever standard you chose: Military? Economy? Science/Technology?)

Second question: Can you explain why you feel whichever way you do? Which forces, do you think will keep us on top / bring us down?

Third question: Is there anything we can (or should) be doing about it?

[brianm23]

What makes you think we are the world's #1 country now?

You probably can rank China above us in most, if not all of those categories. (except human rights)

[skinfan2k]

Military? Not in count, but technology yes

Economy? The dollar will still dominate the market around the world

Science/Technology? Yes, we develop technologies faster than anyone and also implement them

[DOOG]

Will a simple " no" do???... I think we have been on the down swing for years.

[endzone_dave]

Watch what happens to our economy when China and Saudi Arabia refuse to buy our debt anymore. We are screwed.

[GhostofSparta]

I'm going to give a hesitant "yes" for the following reasons"

1. Nukes. We have far more nukes than any other country, and that fact alone will keep the US highly relevant and influential. Look at Iran, would they be anywhere near the world stage without a budding nuclear program? How about North Korea? Russia is still incredibly relevant thanks to the nukes the old USSR developed and built.

2. Other military considerations: We have more aircraft carriers than anybody else. We have bases on every continent. Most other countries would have to almost bankrupt themselves to catch up to us in the next 50 years from a traditional military standpoint. This also will keep us relevant for a long time.

3. Geography. America has a lot of land and natural resources that we can tap. We don't have to worry about an invasion from our neighboring countries anytime soon. Look at Europe after WWI and WWII, those countries went from ruling the world to devastated hell-holes.

4. Who takes our spot? The EU that's constantly feuding and seems on the verge of breaking up every 5 years? China, with a completely gender-imbalanced generation at the moment that can't possibly be good for them as a whole 50 years from now? The Russians, who depend almost entirely on oil, natural gas, and a nuclear stockpile to remain above 3rd world status?

[mcsluggo]

y'all are downrigh hillarious!

[Larry]

To answer my own questions:

No, I think that barring something major, the US is headed the way England went. We're going to be the old fogey, talking about how great we used to be.

I think the greatest force that's pushing us in that direction is the rise in power of the corporations. And the corporations don't want any country to be as important as the US used to be, because the only thing that can counter the power of the corporations is a national government that's as powerful as the US used to be.

The corporations want to be able to treat countries the way NFL owners treat cities: Throw money at me or I'll move somewhere else.

Do I think we can do anything about it? I don't know. I wonder if something big, some national challenge or contest, like the Space Colonization thing I like to preach about, might re-awaken the American frontier spirit.

But I have to admit that that's a rosy dream being spun by a partisan who wants to Believe.

[skinfan133]

based on current trends, we will face fierce competition for influence from Europe (which is most undoubtedly going to become a federal state of some sort over that timeframe), China, maybe India, and maybe Brazil, but will will continue to be the big dog on the international stage. We're in the process of moving from the unipolar structure of power we've seen the last 20 years to a bipolar power structure more reminiscent of all modern history. The dollar is on the cusp of being replaced with a world standard currency, known as SDRs, at the behest of china, but unless China starts consuming more their economic power is going to hit a wall. The only way China will consume more is if we produce it, and if we produce, our economic clout increases.

Militarily I see China and the United States competing in a new cold war of sorts, but I highly doubt our two countries will get into a shooting war. Our conflict will be one of global influence and technological development. China is on the cusp of having bluewater deployment capability. They now understand that modern military power comes from quality, not quantity. Europe will have its own military by 2050, and I (and many, many people) have no idea what that means for NATO.

The future is one of integration, cooperation, and competition of the market, not the military (hopefully). We will loose our position as the world's hegemonic power, but we will be equal with one (China) or two (Europe) powers in terms of world influence.

Also expect the UN security council to be expanded within the next 50 years, and with that, greater influence of the UN in world affairs.

[skinfan133]

I'm going to give a hesitant "yes" for the following reasons"

1. Nukes. We have far more nukes than any other country, and that fact alone will keep the US highly relevant and influential. Look at Iran, would they be anywhere near the world stage without a budding nuclear program? How about North Korea? Russia is still incredibly relevant thanks to the nukes the old USSR developed and built.

Incorrect, Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States by a couple thousand. I think its 9000 to our 6000.

Russia is relevant because Russia is willing itself to be relevant. The French are a nuclear armed country, and look at their influence. Russia has much more influence than France does, for the simple fact that Russia invades its neighbors and France doesn't. Nuclear weapons do not make a country as relevant as you think. They have deterring power, i.e. it deters to actions of others, they do not have direct influential power, i.e. "Hey Iran, we got nukes, so stop developing your own," you can't force actions based on nuclear capability, but you can prevent certain future actions from happening.

[Larry]

Agreed. Pretty much the only thing nukes do is they make you invasion-proof. (Which is why so many countries that the US doesn't like, want nukes.)

[skinfan133]

Watch what happens to our economy when China and Saudi Arabia refuse to buy our debt anymore. We are screwed.

Me and a team of my fellow cadets did a simulation report on such a scenario, the United States has many economic weapons at its disposal if such an event occurs.

it won't though for the following reason: our debt is too profitable. The United States has never defaulted and will not default. we have made all payments on time throughout our entire history. We will continue to do so, and all parties will gain from those transactions. That isn't to say we can keep on the present track. We need to address our national budget deficit. As long as that stays in check, our debt will still be good on the market.

I used to think like that, but after running the simulation I don't think the issue is as bad as people worry about. That's not to say that current trends aren't concerning, as they certainly are, but at this time it would be highly unlikely for China to stop buying bonds.

[War Paint]

Unfortunately no, and it won't take 50 years. IMO, we'll probably lose our superpower status within the next 5 years. The UN and some other countries are wanting to move away from the dollar. We have so much debt that I don't see any possible way to fix it. China reminds me somewhat of how the US was during and after WWII in regards to manufacturing and production. The US has moved more to a service and consumption country. Seems like one of the last things empires do before the fall is go fight a war in Afghanistan.

[MattFancy]

I remember my 5th grade Social Studies teacher telling our class the US would no longer be the #1 Super Power by 2040. I thought he was crazy then, but he may be right. I honestly don't know for sure though.

[aREDSKIN]

Watch what happens to our economy when China and Saudi Arabia refuse to buy our debt anymore. We are screwed.

We'll just stop buying their junk and oil. It's a circle of convenience.

[Larry]

Me and a team of my fellow cadets did a simulation report on such a scenario, the United States has many economic weapons at its disposal if such an event occurs.

Y'all learning economic warfare, there?

(Although I have to admit that I, personally, have about as much faith in economist's models correctly modeling hypothetical future events as I have in global warming models.)

[Chopper Dave]

Economy: No, not in either per capita or gross measurements. However, of the top 5 GDP countries, we'll probably have the highest per capita GDP. So overall, while countries like South Korea and Singapore (I'm not even including central and northern Europe and the small Arabian peninsula countries, b/c they're already ahead of us in per capita GDP) will have a higher GDP per capita, they won't have a larger economy. Only countries that have terrible standards of living compared to the US like China and India and maybe Brazil will have higher overall GDP. We won't be able to call ourselves the largest economy in the world anymore, but we'll probably still be 1a in importance. Now, if the EU makes things more formal, which they very well could in the next 50 years, it might be a different story. They could probably surpass us as the best combo between per capita GDP and gross GDP, and if they come out of this current crisis, the Euro could eventually overtake the Dollar as the world standard in trade and investment.

Military: Hard to say. Probably, if for no other reason than R&D. A few countries already have a larger military, but we're 10 steps ahead technologically, and the countries that have the potential to match our R&D don't have the domestic will to do so. Of course China (and India; basically the BRIC countries) is the great mitigator in all of these categories, but they're probably more than 50 years away from being able to match our miltary R&D, no matter how much money they throw at it.

Science/Technology: This is the tough one to project. We'll still be up there, but it begs the question as to whether or not we're #1 now in science and technology. I think we can safely assume that most areas that are strengths now will remain strengths, and most areas where we've been surpassed, we'll stay behind. But with technology, you're dealing with more than prognostication, you're prognosticating things that you can't even conceive because they don't yet exist. We've reached the apex of economic and military theory; at this point, it's just improving on what we've got now. With technology, we could be number one across the board now (which we're not), and in 50 years still be number one across the board in all those areas, and we might be fairly well behind the rest of the developed world. I doubt that'll happen, because as with the military, our R&D is top notch, but unlike the military, with technology, Japan and South Korea are going to be pumping bajillions of dollars and man hours into R&D. Think of what's on the horizon; nanotechnology, interstellar travel, genetic engineering, etc. There's no way to know who is going to conquer which emerging sector.

Overall: We've got the dream, and despite the blows our image has taken throughout the world since it's peak right after WWII, that dream still counts for something. We'll still be the shepherds, the guardians, the inventors, the trailblazers, the envy of the rest of the world. It's hard to dethrone a hegemony, but when it happens, it tends take more than 100 years. Rome wasn't built in a day, but it didn't fall in one either. The British Empire ruled the world for longer than we have. We won't be on top forever, but our time has not yet passed.

[thebluefood]

No super power lasts forever. I doubt we'll be number one in 2060, but I don't think we'll all be on the street. Hopefully, I'll be dead by then, so it won't really matter!

[Chopper Dave]

Me and a team of my fellow cadets did a simulation report on such a scenario, the United States has many economic weapons at its disposal if such an event occurs.

it won't though for the following reason: our debt is too profitable. The United States has never defaulted and will not default. we have made all payments on time throughout our entire history. We will continue to do so, and all parties will gain from those transactions. That isn't to say we can keep on the present track. We need to address our national budget deficit. As long as that stays in check, our debt will still be good on the market.

I used to think like that, but after running the simulation I don't think the issue is as bad as people worry about. That's not to say that current trends aren't concerning, as they certainly are, but at this time it would be highly unlikely for China to stop buying bonds.

Very good points. Also, besides the benefits they get from buying our debt and the retribution they'd face if they decided to stop, there's the unintended negative consequences. They stop buying our debt, our economy tumbles, they have no one to buy their faulty drywall and lead-tainted toys, their economy tumbles. It's economic MAD, which kinda goes into some of the economic weapons that you mentioned.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

Will a simple " no" do???... I think we have been on the down swing for years.

I think the end of the Cold War hurt us in a way. We no longer have that opposing force to push us to be the best we can be. But being on the brink of complete annihilation isn't any fun so it's still good it's over.

[zoony]

I remember reading in the 1980s that Japan would be dominant by now.

We greatly underestimate ourselves. We're still one of the only truly open societies that exists in the world. We're the first to reach across the table to others, the first to try new things, the first to embrace just about anything.

China has a 1950's manufacturing economy. They're still a bunch of xenophobic neanderthals. Pardon me while I remain unimpressed.

[Sticksboi05]

The U.S. is where it is now because we have always had the ability to adapt and to overcome. No reason to believe we cannot for another 50 years. Does that mean we won't go through some scary times? No.

Everyone keeps saying "oh China". Sorry, their economy based on low-cost junk because they have an enormous workforce but their stuff is not 100% irreplaceable. The stuff they make is not vital to a growing technological world.

[PeterMP]

Yes to all.

We might not be as great as we are now, but realistically nobody is going to over take us.

[skinfan2k]

The only thing I see as our downfall is the illegal immigration coming in from Mexico

[mardi gras skin]

I think it depends on our structural and emotional support for risk taking. If we continue to celebrate and cultivate the entrepreneurial spirit, we'll be fine.