ES: Campbell haters beware

[TSO]

patten played well because *gasp* he had drew brees throwing to him. just like he only did well in NWE because he had brady throwing to him.

hes never done anything anywhere else, including here. but keep making up stories about scrubs who did nothing on our team.

But I thought Brunell wasn't a scrub in 05, according to you? :hysterical:

Oh, I forgot... when it's convenient for your Campbell-bashing Brunell was great, but otherwise he was a scrub QB. You have to remind me man!

Yeah, Patten just sucks and was worth nothing. Brady and Brees ran his routes as well. He wasn't a capable no. 2 WR, nope. His career was one of failure.

[bobzmuda]

Murph, everything I can find on the intertubez say that Santana only had 8 drops. How did the FO Almanac qualify the drops?

About 9 posts above yours...

"Drops" like "Tackles" are an unofficial stat. But FO uses very thorough game charters who keep track of these. So thorough that FO had over 300 mistakes in the official NFL play-by-play corrected by these charters and accepted by the NFL as revisions to their play-by-play.

The charters marked overthrown and underthrown as a separate category than defensed or dropped. As a result, if they list a pass as "dropped" it was not deemed to have been overthrown, underthrown or defensed.

[CRobi21]

Good read Murf...

Thanks for posting!

[Botched]

But I thought Brunell wasn't a scrub in 05, according to you? :hysterical:

Oh, I forgot... when it's convenient for your Campbell-bashing Brunell was great, but otherwise he was a scrub QB. You have to remind me man!

Yeah, Patten just sucks and was worth nothing. Brady and Brees ran his routes as well. He wasn't a capable no. 2 WR, nope. His career was one of failure.

He said Brady and Brees are great QBs, when did he say Brunell was a scrub in 05?

Weren't you just accusing us of exaggerating? Hard to debate when you're that inconsistent.

[Thinking Skins]

Such a big threat he averaged a whole 24.1 yards a game.

Let's get back to Jason. All I am saying is if you give Todd the same offense that Jason plays with then we wouldn't be having this discussion.

people tell me im being "revisionist" with brunell. my god how could anybody with a straight face say patten was the reason moss did much better? hilarity.

But yal are talking so much about PI, go back and look at how many PI calls he got that year. Thats where he was a threat and thats where he was respected. Go back and look at how many deep balls were attempted to him. The very things you're talking about Campbell not doing with Moss is what Brunell didn't do with Moss. You've got to remember that Patten was coming off a SuperBowl performance and an 800 yard season in which he was averaging almost 20 yards per reception. We brought him in here to do that same thing and he was good at getting PI calls here, which helped us a lot.

[bobzmuda]

Of course I'm not disagreeing, I can't argue with that stat. My argument is fully connected because that particular stat is irrelevant. It's like me saying " Dan Orlovsky was ranked #2 in passes of 10 yards or more in the 4th quarter, so he's a clutch QB."

I am fully convinced that Jason Campbell can not read a defense. I base my judgement not off one obscure stat like you have, but from witnessing the entirety of his 36 starts.

How is him properly reading a zone blitz not relevant to him reading a defense?

Also, "obscure" does not equate to "irrelevant".

I think you're wrong, based on a relevant stat, compiled from meticulous notes, where he was ranked tops in the conference on reading and reacting to zone blitzes, and my witnessing the entirety of his 36 starts and approximately 75% of the starts of every other NFL QB over the past 4 years.

Both the objective evidence of FO and my own subjective observations, which may be substantially larger, and consequently, more informed than yours, tell me you're wrong.

But that's your right.

[Taylor 36]

The other reason Moss was so successful in 05 was due to the unknown of our offense. Nobody was quite sure how we would come out and attack with Gibbs 2 (other thanthe obvious smashmouth running game). Doesn't that sound farmiliar (first 8 games last season). Once defenses got a hold of some game-tape in 05 they game planned to take Moss out, it had nothing to due with Patten getting injured but more to do with defenses catching up with what we were trying to do thus making changes accordingly.

You mean other coordinators were too stupid to look at the tape from '04? :doh:

[Emoshag]

Murf,

What you wrote was very subjectively written. You only referenced individual stats that only highlight Campbells non-knocks (or things that make him look good).

You should also post the DVOA and DYAR statistics from footballoutsiders.com. You only referenced half of the stats and only the ones that make Campbell look good. In the overall analysis of passes thrown he was 16th (DYAR) and 18th (DVOA) respectively.

And if anyone decides to actually look up all of the analysis of Campbell via footballoutsiders.com you will find this bolded sentence.

"he simple version: DYAR means a quarterback with more total value. DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play."

Here is the overall analysis from footballoutsiders.com

Even with all the positives in Campbells defense you mentioned... he was still in the bottom half of the league in DVOA and DAR.

Please, for anyone who "Should Beware" you should first read the ENTIRE analysis.... not just the few things the article mentioned. Its only painting 1/3 of the picture.

[BuryYourDuke]

I'm pretty sure this will play itself out over the course of the season. Hopefully by BLC and I being wrong. We of course know that we can't be right, b/c if we are, it will be blamed on something other than JC.

[Thinking Skins]

Any serious football fan should buy the FO Almanac. You may not always agree with some of their methodologies or even data collection, but at least they're intellectually honest about what they try to present.

Here's another fun Campbell stat for the "he's dumb/can't read a defense" crowd.

I'm pretty sure I can find an obscure stat or two where Jake Delhomme was ranked #1 last year. Doesn't mean he was any good though.

But this goes directly against the line of attack that JC can't read defenses. It shows that when we're given these exotic blitzes, we've done pretty well.

[Botched]

How is him properly reading a zone blitz not relevant to him reading a defense?

Also, "obscure" does not equate to "irrelevant".

I think you're wrong, based on a relevant stat, compiled from meticulous notes, where he was ranked tops in the conference on reading and reacting to zone blitzes, and my witnessing the entirety of his 36 starts and approximately 75% of the starts of every other NFL QB over the past 4 years.

Both the objective evidence of FO and my own subjective observations, which may be substantially larger, and consequently, more informed than yours, tell me you're wrong.

But that's your right.

Again, you're using ONE stat against ONE defensive strategy to conclude that Jason can read a defense. You don't think that's flawed methodology at all? Is he just as proficient in other situations, or are zone blitzes the only thing that matters?

What if I think his awful 3rd down statistics prove he can't read a defense? Does that make it so, or is there more to the story?

[KingGibbs]

Well, using the word "haters" was a little strong and is a good way to stir the pot IMO. I prefer the word doubters or realists.

Emoshag came up with a nice counre-punch.

The thing that sticks in my mind in regards to Campbell is the '07 season. Our offense was stagnant with him in there. When he was injured Collins came in and looked like he had been playing all year. He might not have been lights out, but he was very efficient with the same players that Campbell had. Not to mention that Collins hadn't started a game in TEN years!

Here it is two years later and we're still having the same Campbell discussions.

[Skinz248]

im getting it. santana is one of the best deep threats in the league. why wasnt campbell chucking it to him downfield A LOT last season? brunell was able to do it in 05. even at the beginning of the season, before the oline "broke down" JC wasnt attempting those homerun throws with moss, which is exactly the type of receiver he is. thats how you draw PI calls, have moss streaking down the field and campbell hitting those deep balls. that saints play last year should be a staple in this offense, and we see it like once a month.

ill agree, we need that big guy in the redzone (kelly, thomas) but cooley is 6-4 and he didnt find him once last year. as i always say, unacceptable.

You mean like this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pGVLK0c6gE

Just change the note to "This one's for you BLC"

[wvtbred]

But yal are talking so much about PI, go back and look at how many PI calls he got that year. Thats where he was a threat and thats where he was respected. Go back and look at how many deep balls were attempted to him. The very things you're talking about Campbell not doing with Moss is what Brunell didn't do with Moss. You've got to remember that Patten was coming off a SuperBowl performance and an 800 yard season in which he was averaging almost 20 yards per reception. We brought him in here to do that same thing and he was good at getting PI calls here, which helped us a lot.

I haven't sad a thing about PI.

I only threw out the yards per game that Patten averaged being 24.1

You guys keep going around and around but this topic is supposed to be about Jason. My point with that is if you give Todd Collins the same offense he would play better then Jason.

[GibbsFactor]

About 9 posts above yours...

Thank you!!!

[Mooka]

We’ve said our piece, now let’s open it up to Campbell haters …

My opinion of Jason Campbell will not change until he accomplishes something.

That means at the very least, a winning season, a pro-bowl season, a good statistical season, SOMETHING. Something that warrants a contract extension.

You can put up all the stats you want that point out that Jason is not that bad. Show me a statistic that says he's good. Sorry, being not that bad despite problems around him does not automatically make someone a franchise QB.

I'm no longer on the bandwagon. I jumped off last season at Cincinnati.

Longshot, they're proving they don't know anything they're talking about. I'm starting to think they don't even watch the games. How anyone could say there was no noticeable difference in our passing game with/without Patten is a disgusting display of blindness to say the least. They use Patten's stats as if that is the end all to the argument, when a WR does more than just put up stats, and a lot of times is used as a decoy more than anything! Even friggin TO understood this.

:no:

Sorry, you've left out that Brunell, once again was playing hurt towards the end of the 2005 season. Losing Patten obviously hurt because we had nothing behind him, but seriously, Patten didn't do enough to merit anything in the grand scheme of things.

[elkabong82]

You would have thought a lot of this would have been obvious, given the personnel that was on the field down the stretch last season.

OL: Heyer at LT, Kendall can't practice during the week, Thomas w/ an injury risking paralysis, Jansen banged up and already regressing. Heck, we even had Geisenger starting one game.

WR: Moss, ARE, Thrash. 2 small guys and an aging vet who is now retired.

I see some saying: "Oh, so Campbell needs elite OL and WRs otherwise he's terrible, that's what you're saying." A cute spin, but I wonder how Tom Brady would fare w/o a great OL and elite WRs like Randy Moss and Wes Welker (he's elite in the slot).

In fact, can anybody actually name an a QB who has performed greatly despite a crappy OL? And with midgets at WRs who lead the league as a group in drops?

What's really sad is that all this evidence brought up by the article were brought up before, and soundly dismissed as "excuses" by the vocal minority. Now with all the evidence staring them in the face from a legit source, they are the ones scrambling for "excuses" rather than make the simple admission that Campbell didn't have the best surrounding cast in the 2nd half of the season, and that negatively impacted his performance.

[bobzmuda]

Again, you're using ONE stat against ONE defensive strategy to conclude that Jason can read a defense. You don't think that's flawed methodology at all? Is he just as proficient in other situations, or are zone blitzes the only thing that matters?

That shows that there are situations that he can read a defense. That disproves the "he can't read read a defense" argument. End of story.

Now, one can certainly change their argument from an extreme and untenable position like "can't" to "not proficient to my liking". But that's a different story, and one that I would respect a good deal more.

What if I think his awful 3rd down statistics prove he can't read a defense? Does that make it so, or is there more to the story?

I don't see how another stat, whatever the circumstances, disproves what we've already established - Campbell CAN read a defense.

If your argument is he CAN NOT read a defense, then you need to show in all circumstances how he CAN NOT read a defense or you need to disprove the situations in which others say he's shown he CAN read a defense.

And murf's quoting FO certainly talks about the "more to the story" (how awful the run game was last year, leaving the team in many 3rd and longs with only 1 deep threat).

In any event, I don't take too much issue with the folks that say they don't believe Campbell is the answer for this team. There are certainly outstanding questions as to his ability to lead this team with all it's warts and beauty marks.

However, I do take issue with the folks that say Campbell is awful, retarded, lucky to be in the league, can't read a defense, etc., because so much objective and subjective data point in the other direction.

It would be the same as folks saying Portis should be released because the latest evidence (i.e. the last 8 games of 2008) show he's an awful RB.

[TomE]

I'm pretty sure I can find an obscure stat or two where Jake Delhomme was ranked #1 last year. Doesn't mean he was any good though.

Well dig up that stat or two and demonstrate how it applies to your premise that Delhomme is no good.

[Botched]

I see some saying: "Oh, so Campbell needs elite OL and WRs otherwise he's terrible, that's what you're saying." A cute spin, but I wonder how Tom Brady would fare w/o a great OL and elite WRs like Randy Moss and Wes Welker (he's elite in the slot).

You do know Brady didn't have Moss and Welker when he won 3 Super Bowls right?

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

well since i clearly know nothing about the sport of football and im in the presence of so many knowledgeable fans, would someone be kind enough to give me an explanation as to why he he only drew one pass interference call last season? surely someone must know.

im looking for something other than "i dont know" or "its hard to say".

[mel25]

ya'll might as well drop this until january, or at least after the first quarter on saturday.

[RedskinGodfather]

This is comical.

[TSO]

He said Brady and Brees are great QBs, when did he say Brunell was a scrub in 05?

Weren't you just accusing us of exaggerating? Hard to debate when you're that inconsistent.

I misunderstood when he said:

hes never done anything anywhere else, including here. but keep making up stories about scrubs who did nothing on our team.

I somehow managed to view that as him calling out Brunell in 05 as well, which is what he is doing nonetheless, considering he is saying that Brees and Brady are the only two QBs that could possibly deal with such an awful receiver like Patten, right?

Either way, you're right... he didn't call Brunell a scrub, but how does that make anything else I said "inconsistent"? It seems like your grasping for straws there, lol. Please show me. The exaggerations are only on your side, claiming that Patten had nothing to do with our passing offense in 05. That's what we're counter-arguing, and you both have yet to provide any evidence suggesting we're wrong besides ridiculous exaggerations and insults towards Patten.

But yal are talking so much about PI, go back and look at how many PI calls he got that year. Thats where he was a threat and thats where he was respected. Go back and look at how many deep balls were attempted to him. The very things you're talking about Campbell not doing with Moss is what Brunell didn't do with Moss. You've got to remember that Patten was coming off a SuperBowl performance and an 800 yard season in which he was averaging almost 20 yards per reception. We brought him in here to do that same thing and he was good at getting PI calls here, which helped us a lot.

Any answers to this fine response gentleman?

[elkabong82]

You do know Brady didn't have Moss and Welker when he won 3 Super Bowls right?

You do know he still had that line right? And the offense was nothing like it was once Welker and Randy Moss were there. Before then their D and Vinateiri helped out a lot, especially in '01.