ES: Campbell haters beware

[PCS]

FO slam reply

Noted,but really has nothing to do with what Murph is saying with this. Let's try to keep this one there.

So what you're saying is...

With elite offensive line, elite wide receivers, and an elite running back, Jason Campbell could be good. Not great, but good. Sweet...

This is a detailed,well thought out article that Murf put together here. It would be nice if the membership that disagrees with it could stay away from drivebys and such and provide a more in-depth counter argument.

I complain because I care about this team and still say Jason cost the Skins games last year and didn't deliver. Again look back at how the team played when he was in during the 2007 regular season and then how the offense looked when Todd came in and they won 4 in a row. Night and day all the way through. I just wonder what we would have looked like with Todd starting last year and believe at a minimum we would have made the playoffs maybe more.

For Jason to be successful he can get better mentally but the biggest thing he needs is the ability to make the players around him better, Todd obviously did that in '07.

That was 07. And while I understand what you're saying here,we're talking about 08 now. And with some interesting stats to go along with it.

[C26 Run]

Who knows why they didn't address it? The point is, it wasn't, it was a major factor in last years skid, and we're screwed again. Next year we're going to have to draft(or trade away our draft for) a QB because Campbell isn't an elite qb who can play behind a poor line. Then we still won't have addressed the line, our new QB will still get pressured, so we better hope they strike gold and find us an elite QB. Just thinking about this scenario makes me die a little inside. I hope to god I'm wrong about all this.

No QB (elite or otherwise) can play behind a poor O-line. If this season falls into the tank again, it should be the F.O. to blame not anyone else. :helmet:

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

first of all, id like to know exactly what quantifies some of these stats. what exactly is an "overthrown pass"? one that sails over moss' head, or one that is out of his reach? or one that he jumps 8 feet in the air and still misses it cause hes a short guy? same goes for underthrown. who quantifies any of that stuff?

since these guys are so specific id like to see the stat "percentage of passes thrown to a receiver in full stride" and "time held on to the ball per snap".

and about his accuracy, he threw short, meaning high % of completions. SoCalSkins posted his yards through the air, he was ranked like 30 something out of all QBs. and after all the cute stats that make him look better, we still know for a fact hes bottom of barrel in TDs, and even when the line was supposedly playing well in the first 8 games, he still only was on pace for 16 TDs, which is still pretty average.

[wvtbred]

That was 0. And while I understand what you're saying here,we're talking about 08 now. And with some interesting stats to go along with it.

I totally understand but used it because it was the example available. Until someone else get a chance to play with the first team we only have that to compare Jason to.

Edited to add: Also the difference in Stats between Jason and Todd in '07 was not small and they both played behind the same line.

I am also not a Jason hater I just don't like the way he plays on the field. Off the field he is a great guy.

I like all that Murph writes but respectfully don't like the "hater" tag used here. We all love the Skins or wouldn't be here discussing them.

[Rskins91]

Who knows why they didn't address it? The point is, it wasn't, it was a major factor in last years skid, and we're screwed again. Next year we're going to have to draft(or trade away our draft for) a QB because Campbell isn't an elite qb who can play behind a poor line. Then we still won't have addressed the line, our new QB will still get pressured, so we better hope they strike gold and find us an elite QB. Just thinking about this scenario makes me die a little inside. I hope to god I'm wrong about all this.

I think you're selling the O-Line, for all its faults, a little short. Heyer will be much more durable than Jansen and should be able to play a 16 game season barring injury, and Dockery will add some youth to the O-line too. Not to mention Samuels won't be playing on a bum injury that limits his effectiveness.

I have a feeling the O-line will be better than last year, though they won't wow anyone. Which might be enough to help the offense get going.

[TSO]

You know, reflecting on this a bit more... you can't really blame the WRs either. These guys are smaller, speedy guys that bank on getting into space before the ball is thrown, not having to catch it in traffic. That's just the type of WRs they are. It's not necessarily a bad thing, because as Moss and, to a certain extent, Randle El have proven they can still be productive.

The problem is there are defenses that are just too good to allow any WR, no matter how shifty, to get into open space. That's when you need guys who can catch in traffic, use their bodies, and allow the QB to take risks when throwing to. We haven't had that as of yet, and credit goes to Vinny and the staff to try and correct that last year during the draft.

I think somewhere along the incessant bashing of Campbell, we forgot just how important it is in this modern version of football to have a bigger target at the WR spot. How many TOs, Burress', Andre Johnsons, Randy Moss', Boldins, Fitzgeralds, Calvin Johnsons, Marshalls, etc... do we need to see helping their QBs out majorly before we give Campbell a little benefit of the doubt?

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

these are some very interesting stats posted by socalskins in a thread that has since been closed, this was his post:

No it is not about lack of patience. It is the inability to anticipate where receivers will be prior to their breaks and having confidence in his own ability to deliver the ball. Only throwing to wide open guys results in a bunch of dump offs that the defense will give you all day long.

Having 1 pass interference call in all of 2008 is a great example of that fact. In 16 NFL games, to have your receivers draw only 1 PI is absurd. It shows a lack of confidence in ability to make clutch throws. Everyone at this level has talent. You can't expect your guy to be open by yards unless it's 3rd and 10 and you pickup 5 yards. It is also the reason for the low interception total.

Jason Campbell was 36th in the NFL in air yards per attempt in 2008:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...ards-2008.html

The guy doesn't push the ball up field.

[BlackBush]

first of all, id like to know exactly what quantifies some of these stats. what exactly is an "overthrown pass"? one that sails over moss' head, or one that is out of his reach? or one that he jumps 8 feet in the air and still misses it cause hes a short guy? same goes for underthrown. who quantifies any of that stuff?

since these guys are so specific id like to see the stat "percentage of passes thrown to a receiver in full stride" and "time held on to the ball per snap".

and about his accuracy, he threw short, meaning high % of completions. SoCalSkins posted his yards through the air, he was ranked like 30 something out of all QBs. and after all the cute stats that make him look better, we still know for a fact hes bottom of barrel in TDs, and even when the line was supposedly playing well in the first 8 games, he still only was on pace for 16 TDs, which is still pretty average.

He (and the team) were on their way to 12 wins though which would be above average.

I'm still holding out on whether he is the long term option at QB or if next year's draft is the focus but basically he has a season to get it done. If he throws a td a game and we win who the ***** cares.

[The Full Monty]

Great points, Murf. Football Outsiders are The Truth.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

He (and the team) were on their way to 12 wins though which would be above average.

I'm still holding out on whether he is the long term option at QB or if next year's draft is the focus but basically he has a season to get it done. If he throws a td a game and we win who the ***** cares.

1 TD a game from your QB is not enough, unless you have the ravens or steelers defense. the titans got away with it cause they could run like crazy with two good RB and a good oline, but even they couldnt handle the ravens in the playoffs.

we need to score more points. 1 TD a game from your RB is great. 1 TD from your QB, not so much. again, we cant keep scoring 14-17 points a game. we need to be capable of scoring a lot, and right now, we cant.

[Jumbo]

This is a meaningful and interesting contribution to the Campbell discussions(which, other than Oldfan-initiated sorties, makes it a rarity). Thanks Murf--great work as always (and major thanks to the FO guys--I love the Football Outsider guys). I pretty much agree with your capsulation of JC, with maybe just a tad more appreciation withheld performance-wise.

He does seem to me to have concrete limitations that will ever keep him out of the top tier. But with properly designed support that can execute their roles at a solid level (I'm just setting "solid" as the bar), I agree JC can be a solid QB. And he has often played at that level.

We have had consistent and usually concurrent issues with serious OL inconsistency, coaching flaws, and multiple weaknesses at the WR position hampering our offensive product for years prior to JC and all during his tenure. The brief good runs we had with Brunell, Collins, and JC in 05, 07, 08 were demonstrative of what we can be like when those shortcomings aren't dominant.

I see notable potential improvement of our WR corps (currently unproven though), and I still like Zorn (have for over 20 years based on exposure via Seattle) and his potential. I am defintely pulling for him through my concerns and want him to succeed in DC. But I don't see that JC's overall support on all fronts will likely be improved/effective enough in all the areas I've mentioned for the 'skins to lead this division.

To do that, and be able to go past a first round play-off game, I think we would need a QB that could win games mainly by virtue of his singular effort "carry the team on his back") more than once a season.

JC's not that kind of QB at an NFL level, IMO, based on what I've seen to date. So I'm hopeful (as usual) but not optimistic. Pragmatically (barring really good luck or unexpected seriously-standout individual player performances) I'm seeing a 9-7 year as "hopeful" and if we were to actually hit 10-6 I'd consider it a success for Zorn's 2nd year.

[SWFLSkins]

Great, original stats Murf.

Those took some time to dig up, and to print. Thanks for doing so.

Here is the big picture though:

With the strong case that you just made about how bad the o-line was.....why didn't Vinny address it?

Because Orakpo was just too great to pass up? Please.

So throw away an entire season, just to get Orakpo? As opposed to going after an Oher, or another o-lineman later?

The organization still just has absolutely no idea how to build a winning football team.

It is so damn frustrating.

What about Campbell though?

[BlackBush]

1 TD a game from your QB is not enough, unless you have the ravens or steelers defense. the titans got away with it cause they could run like crazy with two good RB and a good oline, but even they couldnt handle the ravens in the playoffs.

we need to score more points. 1 TD a game from your RB is great. 1 TD from your QB, not so much. again, we cant keep scoring 14-17 points a game. we need to be capable of scoring a lot, and right now, we cant.

I'm saying 1 TD and a Win... You give me a win I don't care if he runs for more yards than he throws. lol

You also have to think about the times when we get in the redzone and zorn notices that the zones are too tight to squeeze passes into. In those cases it doesn't matter if Campbell(or whoever) threw for 98 yards, you run the ball.

['Skins_&_'Stons]

Well done as always, murf!

[Paigums]

You know, reflecting on this a bit more... you can't really blame the WRs either. These guys are smaller, speedy guys that bank on getting into space before the ball is thrown, not having to catch it in traffic. That's just the type of WRs they are.

Yet another reason why Thomas and Kelly need to step up this year...they were brought in for exactly this reason. If they can be consistent, and the o-line holds up for long enough it should really open up our offense for some deep balls downfield - something I'm sure Zorny is looking for.

[TSO]

BLC, you want Campbell to draw more PI calls by taking the chance when the WRs he has to throw the ball downfield to aren't the type to catch in traffic? If Moss is double covered by a DB roughly the same size as him, and a Safety most likely bigger than him over the top, while Randle El is running stride for stride with a DB also the same size as him, wouldn't Campbell be a total idiot to try and throw that ball, taking that risk? How many times do you honestly think those situations will actually turn into a PI call as opposed to an INT, or just a batted ball for no gain?

Furthermore, wouldn't you say it'd be easier, safer, and more beneficial to throw up a ball when it's a guy like Kelly running stride for stride downfield with a DB 3-5 inches shorter than him? Or even throw a ball to a guy like Devin Thomas, who may not necessarily be taller, but who simply has a bigger body build than the DB covering him?

It's no wonder why Campbell ended up having to throw to Cooley the majority of the time.

[TheLongshot]

these are some very interesting stats posted by socalskins in a thread that has since been closed, this was his post:

Which the 50 pass defensed stat in the article shoots down. As I said in that thread, I think PI calls are more on the receiver beating his guy than anything the QB does (other than throw the ball in that direction). That stat may say more about our receivers than it does about our QB.

There are some here making a big deal about if the drops are because he's not putting it where it is easy to catch. That's actually beside the point. In the NFL, if you can get your hands on the ball, you should be able to catch it.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

I'm saying 1 TD and a Win... You give me a win I don't care if he runs for more yards than he throws. lol

You also have to think about the times when we get in the redzone and zorn notices that the zones are too tight to squeeze passes into. In those cases it doesn't matter if Campbell(or whoever) threw for 98 yards, you run the ball.

if your QB isnt good enough to pass in the redzone because he cant "squeeze passes" then he shouldnt be playing QB. cant just get to the redzone and run 3 times. titans got away with it last year with white and johnson, i highly doubt theyll repeat that again.

[McD5]

What about Campbell though?

I personally don't feel he is the answer.

The performance of Todd Collins, after roughly a decade of not even competing, is proof positive to support that conclusion.

If a guy can come off the bench after ten years, and lead our team into the playoffs, we obviously have a problem with the starter.

I believe JC will be done by the bye week, if not by game 5.

But Murf's stats do make a strong counter argument.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Which the 50 pass defensed stat in the article shoots down. As I said in that thread, I think PI calls are more on the receiver beating his guy than anything the QB does (other than throw the ball in that direction). That stat may say more about our receivers than it does about our QB.

There are some here making a big deal about if the drops are because he's not putting it where it is easy to catch. That's actually beside the point. In the NFL, if you can get your hands on the ball, you should be able to catch it.

50 passes defensed was in reference to the ball being batted by a defender (covering the receiver if im reading that correctly). what does that have anything to do with how far the ball travels in the air??

PI calls mean the ball is thrown to a place that the defender cannot get to, so he has to latch on to the receiver to prevent the play. so if campbell is having 50 passes defensed leads me to believe that defenders were getting way too much of his passes on their hands.

and the whole "going up and getting it", we dont have a receiver like that, so why is campbell even throwing those types of passes in the first place?

[TSO]

Yet another reason why Thomas and Kelly need to step up this year...they were brought in for exactly this reason. If they can be consistent, and the o-line holds up for long enough it should really open up our offense for some deep balls downfield - something I'm sure Zorny is looking for.

And let's not forget one other, uhm, gigantic aspect of this: Red Zone efficiency. For all the complaining of Campbells low TD numbers, wouldn't he reap the benefits if he had at least ONE guy who was bigger than the DB covering him to throw it to down there, where there's no space and no time for a shifty guy like Moss or Randle El to get any separation? Shouldn't we acknowledge that this also had an enormous effect on our play calling down in the red zone? Just based on memory, I remember us calling a lot more draws than other teams in the red zone.

[TSO]

50 passes defensed was in reference to the ball being batted by a defender (covering the receiver if im reading that correctly). what does that have anything to do with how far the ball travels in the air??

PI calls mean the ball is thrown to a place that the defender cannot get to, so he has to latch on to the receiver to prevent the play. so if campbell is having 50 passes defensed leads me to believe that defenders were getting way too much of his passes on their hands.

and the whole "going up and getting it", we dont have a receiver like that, so why is campbell even throwing those types of passes in the first place?

Ahhh, and therein lies the problem. You're finally getting it! :thumbsup:

So you want Campbell to generate more PI calls by taking risks, but yet you're admitting Campbell doesn't have guys to throw those types of passes to, lol. Then you question what he's thinking trying to throw those types of passes! :doh:

[TheLongshot]

50 passes defensed was in reference to the ball being batted by a defender (covering the receiver if im reading that correctly). what does that have anything to do with how far the ball travels in the air??

The same goes for your PI stat.

and the whole "going up and getting it", we dont have a receiver like that, so why is campbell even throwing those types of passes in the first place?

Because in the NFL you don't have wide open WRs on a regular basis?

You are doing a good job defending my premise. Keep it up.

[TSO]

The same goes for your PI stat.

Because in the NFL you don't have wide open WRs on a regular basis?

You are doing a good job defending my premise. Keep it up.

:hysterical: He just backed himself into a corner.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Ahhh, and therein lies the problem. You're finally getting it! :thumbsup:

So you want Campbell to generate more PI calls by taking risks, but yet you're admitting Campbell doesn't have guys to throw those types of passes to, lol. Then you question what he's thinking trying to throw those types of passes! :doh:

im getting it. santana is one of the best deep threats in the league. why wasnt campbell chucking it to him downfield A LOT last season? brunell was able to do it in 05. even at the beginning of the season, before the oline "broke down" JC wasnt attempting those homerun throws with moss, which is exactly the type of receiver he is. thats how you draw PI calls, have moss streaking down the field and campbell hitting those deep balls. that saints play last year should be a staple in this offense, and we see it like once a month.

ill agree, we need that big guy in the redzone (kelly, thomas) but cooley is 6-4 and he didnt find him once last year. as i always say, unacceptable.