Kirk Cousins 2017 contract discussion/prediction

[goskins10]

4 minutes ago, CTskin said:

I want you to be right, but his mannerisms and tone showed there was a lot of pent up emotion directed at management. He had an attitude similar to what I

Edit

We know how upset he was about being draft by the Skins and he's been thru a lot of BS with this franchise. Now, the better Kirk gets, the more mercenary feel I get from him. He seems set on going where the money is, period. Maybe it's the pessimistic Skins fan in me, but I just want to sign him and put the whole conversation behind us.

I think you hit it on the bold part!!   I think we all suffer from this. Too many years if the team didn't screw it up, a player would be pissed or act like a baby.

But these are different people, both in actions and character. I honestly believe Kirk has much more character than he is being given credit for. It would take a pretty petty person for him to hold animosity for Scot especially. Scot did not draft him but did go to battle for him to be the starter. There is a good chance that without Scot Kirk ends up doing this on a completely different team. He even said Scot was the person who was encouraging him when he struggled to start last year.

Not saying you, but unless people think he is straight out lying, then you have to believe him when he says he was just fired up from a huge win. Some jackass caught something on video that should have been private. Now the whole feels they need to dissect what was a purely innocent encounter between two really competitive guys.

You have probably seen this, but just in case; http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/kirk-cousins-now-shout-message-gm/story?id=43722856

 

[Tsailand]

This was linked to in another thread, but I''ll repost it here, and then explain why it probably isn't good enough.

First of all: It's only $23M/year.  That is a fair price for Kirk's performance and ability, but doesn't take into account that he will be a free agent hitting the open market.  (Once again: This is why normal teams get these deals done with their franchise QBs before the final year of the existing contract.)  His agent is going to try to make him the highest paid NFL player ever.  Luck is getting $24.594M/year, so Kirk's agent will ask for $25M and settle for $24.6M

Secondly: It's too team friendly, almost pay-as-you go.  Only $40M guaranteed, too low for a franchise QB. That includes the guaranteed second year salary, but the first year base salary is basically zero.  Another $15M bonus becomes guaranteed in the spring of the second year, but until that happens, Kirk is the one holding the risk of injury or regression, not the team.  Look at the year two and year three cash numbers on the upper right -- they can cut him after any of those years and only be out that much money. Both numbers are too low.

If this is the best the Redskins can offer, Kirk will play 2017 on the franchise tag.

[wit33]

Man, looking at these numbers makes me want to throw up. I understand it's what QBs get, but man that's a whole lot cap good by his way.

Then, I'm forced to think about the amazing position the Cowboys are in for the next 4 year window, as it relates to cap (Dak and Elliot on rookie deals). 

Im all about signing Kirk, but just think the NFL is flawed in this regard.

[Tsailand]

8 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Then, I'm forced to think about the amazing position the Cowboys are in for the next 4 year window, as it relates to cap (Dak and Elliot on rookie deals). 

We could have had the same thing with Cousins.  Not the NFL's fault we sat him for his first three years. 

Not the NFL's fault we chose to spend everything on a running QB instead of building the O-line first, like the Cowboys did.

[wit33]

9 minutes ago, Tsailand said:

We could have had the same thing with Cousins.  Not the NFL's fault we sat him for his first three years. 

Not the NFL's fault we chose to spend everything on a running QB instead of building the O-line first, like the Cowboys did.

Cowboys are paying Romo 20+ million a year. Just talking numbers, not a slight towards Cousins or Skins organization.

Its the way the NFL works, there isn't many competent QBs, so the value is extremely high. You can win with a high paid guy, it just puts extreme amount of pressure on that individual each season. In some years you can finagle the money and hit a few impact young players and have an all around good team, but it doesn't last very long (Seahawks and Broncos come to mind most recently).

[Tsailand]

8 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Cowboys are paying Romo 20+ million a year. Just talking numbers, not a slight towards Cousins or Skins organization.

Yes, but their current plan is probably to trade him to get most of his cost off their books, then go forward with Dak on his rookie contract.  That will set them up with a great salary cap situation for the next couple years.

This is the value of draft picks and the fixed contracts that come with them: You can get a multi-year starter, even an elite starter, and pay him almost nothing for four years.  The good teams understand this; the bad teams spend four high picks for on the same player. (While the Patriots just magically turn undrafted free agents into starters)

 

[RWJ]

On ‎11‎/‎21‎/‎2016 at 5:57 PM, elkabong82 said:

5 years, $120 million, $50 million guaranteed

He'll become one of the top paid QBs in the league and his guaranteed % matches others.

http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/

I think this might be close to what KC gets only thing I think changes is $65 million guaranteed over the 5 years.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out due to what Andrew Luck got this year.

[wit33]

23 minutes ago, Tsailand said:

Yes, but their current plan is probably to trade him to get most of his cost off their books, then go forward with Dak on his rookie contract.  That will set them up with a great salary cap situation for the next couple years.

This is the value of draft picks and the fixed contracts that come with them: You can get a multi-year starter, even an elite starter, and pay him almost nothing for four years.  The good teams understand this; the bad teams spend four high picks for on the same player. (While the Patriots just magically turn undrafted free agents into starters)

 

Uhhh... Dallas starting Dak this season in no way was their plan. I assume you know this, but don't give them credit for Dak falling in their laps and leading them to 9-1 start. That was in no way expected.

Your second paragraph doesn't apply to the QB position, sure there are outliers, but generally young QBs don't compete for Super Bowls. My point is that it can prove to be difficult to sustain success with a big chunk going to one player, but I understand its tough to win regardless as well. 

The Patriots have the greatest Player and Coach ever, they make plenty of player personnel blunders. For sure, that have a well oiled machine and place great value on the draft, but Brady and BB are the magic behind it all.

[Tsailand]

8 minutes ago, RWJ said:

I think this [ 5 years, $120 million, $50 million guaranteed ] might be close to what KC gets only thing I think changes is $65 million guaranteed over the 5 years.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out due to what Andrew Luck got this year.

I think that if it's a 5 year deal, the number will be 123M.  The extra 3M makes him the highest paid per year, and that matters to the agent and the player.

Guaranteed at signing: The record for that is Suh, who was a few dollars under 60M.  So his agent will ask for that.  I don't know if he will insist on it, but even if they agree to a lower number, the contract will be more player friendly than the bogus contract I pasted above.

[Tsailand]

5 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Uhhh... Dallas starting Dak this season in no way was their plan. I assume you know this, but don't give them credit for Dak falling in their laps and leading them to 9-1 start. That was in no way expected.

I know; I mean the plan going forward. The original plan was Romo staying healthy, which to be honest was not likely.  However, if he had stayed healthy they would probably be about 8-2 right now.  The normal NFL plan of paying a lot of money for a top-15 QB (and Romo at his best was top 5) is tried-and-true.  It helps to have an elite O-line.  I give them credit for that.

Nobody knows how Dak would look behind an average O-line.  The good news for Cowboys fans is that he is not going to have to play behind an average O-line for a long time, if ever.

[sportjunkie07]

On 11/22/2016 at 2:23 PM, ExoDus84 said:

Go to Cleveland and win 3 games a year.

I think this is a point that some posters forget. No doubt he is going to get a massive contract, and his play so far gives him most of the cards. 

But we do have 1 solid card. The system is DC is friendly toward him and the team is trending upward. He will very likely not do better elsewhere. 

Id guess hell get around 25 million a year, with 58 million in guarentees. 

[Momma There Goes That Man]

What did Andrew Luck get? He's getting more than that. 

[Koolblue13]

He's playing at an elite level again, so he's an elite QB and is getting elite money.

We have a ton of space, so front loading the snot out of it will help down the line.

[frankez99]

Day by day, Kirk's skills are ascending.....and so is his contract. He's the best QB we've had here since......Rypien? Thiesmann? Regardless, lock him up. Each team has a "capologist" that can work magic with numbers. 

[Stefanskins]

3 hours ago, frankez99 said:

 Regardless, lock him up. Each team has a "capologist" that can work magic with numbers. 

yes, n' we have one of the best

[Wildbunny]

9 hours ago, wit33 said:

Man, looking at these numbers makes me want to throw up. I understand it's what QBs get, but man that's a whole lot cap good by his way.

Then, I'm forced to think about the amazing position the Cowboys are in for the next 4 year window, as it relates to cap (Dak and Elliot on rookie deals). 

Im all about signing Kirk, but just think the NFL is flawed in this regard.

Mind you, the Cowboys are not in a really good situation cap wise. Sure Dak and Zeke are on rookie deals until 2020. Still, they have 3M left in cap space this year, and 10M schedule next year.

They might probably trade Romo next year, which could help them, if they can find a trade partner, because the better Dak plays, the harder it will be for them to trade Romo and get anything valuable for him. If they just happen to cut him, it'll be a 19M blow to their cap space.  And they've got a bunch of guys to resign in Barry Church, Claiborne, Crawford, Gachkar.

And many guys that will probably walk in Dunbar or McFadden, Sanchez or Kellen Moore. But then, they'll be short of QB if they trade Romo. So they might just keep Romo as a backup? Depends on Romo. Chances are he may stay around as the backup, if he takes a pay cut, and a huge one. Because come 2018 with a projected cap space, they'll have to work on guys like Lael Collins, Zack Martin and Doug Free. Jason Witten is on the list, but he'll probably be let go. That's 3/5 of their actual OL to re-sign and that might not be easy.

8 hours ago, sportjunkie07 said:

I think this is a point that some posters forget. No doubt he is going to get a massive contract, and his play so far gives him most of the cards. 

But we do have 1 solid card. The system is DC is friendly toward him and the team is trending upward. He will very likely not do better elsewhere. 

Id guess hell get around 25 million a year, with 58 million in guarentees. 

That's not really a solid card. There's nothing to prove he can't work alike somewhere else. Our system is nothing special, I don't see a team not being able to reproduce it. Guy just proved us that he's willing to work on prove it deal and wouldn't be afraid of playing somewhere else.

Honestly, you've seen him played. You really believe he would fail somewhere else?

That's the kind of things the Panthers' fans have made after they lose Norman to ease the pain, saying he was a system CB and a product of their D. His play so far have proven he wasn't, and the Panthers' D this year have confirmed it.

Letting him walk would put us in a crappy situation and forces us to trade for... Tony Romo?

Now, if he ever walks next offseason, and the FO doesn't come up with a strong back up plan, then I'll gladly welcome Dan Snyder's fury to fire everyone but Jay on this one as some will have mightily screwed it.

Let's be real, Kirk have a full house, and knows we can only bluff here, because he have already discarded all the remaining aces in the deck. He'll gets what he wants, and he'll gets it here.

[Giveit2Ervins]

At the end of the day cap % is what matters.  Kirk is getting about 12.5% of the cap this year. 

Extrapolate that out over 5 years with the estimated cap it is about 117,000,000. That's about 23.4 million a year.  Throw in 65 mil  guaranteed and there is your deal to lock him up. Seems fair enough to both sides to me.  

[Riggo#44]

From the No **** department, Schefter reports that Skins will franchise Cousins again. I don't think it'll come to that, this time around, but it's nice to have in our back pocket.

[sportjunkie07]

On 11/24/2016 at 9:05 AM, Wildbunny said:

 

That's not really a solid card. There's nothing to prove he can't work alike somewhere else. Our system is nothing special, I don't see a team not being able to reproduce it. Guy just proved us that he's willing to work on prove it deal and wouldn't be afraid of playing somewhere else.

Honestly, you've seen him played. You really believe he would fail somewhere else?

I disagree.  For every josh norman there are an equal amount or more of players that excelled in their system and moved to a different location, with different teammates and different coaching, that didn't excel. It is certainly a risk for a player.

Additionally, is is harder than you make it seem to reproduce the favorable qb situation that we have here.

Currently the skins o has:

-garcon, an viable possession reciever

-djax, a good speed threat

-reed, an elite tight end

-crowder, a budding slot star

-doctson, davis, kelly, thompson, some other good pieces

He's also got an offensive line that has been pretty highly invested in as of late to protect him. 

The coaching staff gave him multiple opportunities to succeed and eventually chose him over rg3, which does show a level of trust.

So where do you think cousins will go that will offer him more money than us while also giving the same kind of support that will allow him to flourish as he has in DC?

Nowhere.. and that is a card we hold. 

 We also still have some negotiating power in a final franchise tag where cousins could risk a down year or injury, which would drop his future contract dollars. 

Also, it should be stressed that despite cousins playing really well, we are still 6-4-1 and third in our division. As a team, we don't need to hamstring our organization by making cousins the highest paid player in the nfl.  

The point of this rant, is not to say that I don't like cousins or believe we should lowball him. Some posters feel we must cave to all of cousins' agent's demands because cousins holds all the cards.. that is simply not the case. 

[cakmoney61]

On 11/21/2016 at 8:06 PM, RedskinsMayne said:

5 year 150mill 60mill guaranteed. Why wouldn't he want elite qb money?

I would be disappointed if Cousins asked for that.  I would hope that his desire to win a SB would exceed his desire for the biggest contract he could possibly get.  

He gets a tremendous amount of help from the coaches and some very talented offensive players around him.  He very seldom has to throw into tight windows.  IMO, quite a few QBs would be very successful QBing this team.

I am not saying he isn't worth at least $23M a year, but $30M a year would be ridiculous.

[TheGreek1973]

On ‎11‎/‎22‎/‎2016 at 9:53 AM, Burgold said:

Vet Min plus the incentives, but the incentives are really crazy. Like front row seats at Hamilton crazy

For Cousins having front row seats for Hamilton is not that big of a deal.  Hanging out with the Pope for a weekend, he will sigh for a vet minimum.  Dan you got any pull with the Vatican? 

[Wildbunny]

50 minutes ago, sportjunkie07 said:

I disagree.  For every josh norman there are an equal amount or more of players that excelled in their system and moved to a different location, with different teammates and different coaching, that didn't excel. It is certainly a risk for a player.

Shortening stuff....

The point of this rant, is not to say that I don't like cousins or believe we should lowball him. Some posters feel we must cave to all of cousins' agent's demands because cousins holds all the cards.. that is simply not the case. 

That was not my point above the weapons we have or not. My point was more about his ability to adapt to another scheme, somewhere else. Would he put elite numbers there? Probably not. Would he fail, I really doubt it.

So I could see a few teams trying their chances on Cousins if he ever reach FA status (which I doubt anyway). Denver being the first and foremost team that could uses his services pretty well. The Cardinals, I believe we're watching Palmer's last season there, or the Chiefs, maybe even the Jaguars if they decide it's time to pull the trigger on Bradley, and thus Blake Bortles (quite a surprising move, but stranger things happen in the NFL). Bills? they could give it a try. Heck he could even go to the Browns or 49ers and still look competent and make them look decent at least.

But in that kind of scenario, you don't need tons of teams to make him offers, you just need one team with a serious offer.

[oraphus]

57 minutes ago, sportjunkie07 said:

I disagree.  For every josh norman there are an equal amount or more of players that excelled in their system and moved to a different location, with different teammates and different coaching, that didn't excel. It is certainly a risk for a player.

Additionally, is is harder than you make it seem to reproduce the favorable qb situation that we have here.

Currently the skins o has:

-garcon, an viable possession reciever

-djax, a good speed threat

-reed, an elite tight end

-crowder, a budding slot star

-doctson, davis, kelly, thompson, some other good pieces

He's also got an offensive line that has been pretty highly invested in as of late to protect him. 

 

That's exactly it right there.. What many dont understand is that Skins enabled cousins to succeed by putting the pieces around him:

-very good O line

-great offensive weapons.

-coach that game plans to the QBs strength.. (and no, this is not a given in the NFL)

In DC Kirk has the perfect system that he showed he can succeed in, both on the field and with endorsements if he plays at a high level. He can be great here, everywhere else is a huge question mark, because lord knows we've seen MANY players leave success only to fail in other franchises. I believe Kirk understands this and wants to stay here.

Sure, he can go to Cleveland and probably make a little more money, but he will almost assuredly not have the success he would here and has a very significant chance of shortening his NFL career. Hopefully this will enable the GM to negotiate a fair deal for both QB and the franchise.

[Tsailand]

24 minutes ago, oraphus said:

he can go to Cleveland and probably make a little more money,

He could also go to Broncos, Jets, Texans after 2017, many other teams....

Remember when a certain other QB's agent said he had gotten interest from ten or twelve other teams, but in reality only the Browns wanted him?  This is going to be the opposite situation.  Nobody is publicly expressing interest in Kirk, because they assume he will be tagged before free agency, and because talking to him right now wold be against NFL rules.  But if he does hit free agency, you are going to see a ridiculous bidding war.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Though I agree the Redskins have done a great job of building around Cousins, they aren't the only team that can or would do that. It's the way you SHOULD treat a good QB. Denver might be 10-1 right now if they had someone playing at Kirk's level. 

I think he'll stick around and certainly should be appreciative of how he's been treated here over the past couple years, but it's not like this is the only place that would do that.